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Property predictions 2022


sarahbell

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I really can't see it because it isn't a fluid market.

Anything but the cheapest houses tend to be either owned outright or have a very low LTV ratio because of HPI.

Their price is held up by what I have termed "equity swapping"; someone sells an £800k house in one part of the country and buys an £800k house in another part of the country.

No mortgages involved, interest rates irrelevant.

I would however be utterly delighted by such falls for personal reasons, I want a fancier house, as well as social reasons.

Equity swapping accounts for a lot of current, low transactions esp in the North.

However ...

Theres still a shit load of IO mortgages kicking around ,which ZIRP has let people put off the day reckoning.

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/research/fca-interest-only-mortgage-review.pdf

Page 6 -

6
Based upon the current residential interest only mortgage stock position, the
maturity horizon (the points at which the residential interest only mortgages
are due to reach the end of term) has been projected.
The residential interest only mortgage maturity horizon has three peak periods:


A. 2017/2018 – this peak is a result of endowment mortgages sold in the 1990’s
and early 2000’s and is typically comprised of individuals approaching
retirement with high incomes, high assets and high levels of forecast equity
in the property at the end of the term. Maturing mortgages in this peak are
concentrated in the South East and South West.


B. 2027/2028 - this peak is a result of interest only mortgages typically sold from
2003 to 2009. Maturity starts in 2022, peaks in 2027/2028 and is characterised
by less affluent individuals currently in early to mid life stages. This group
has higher income multiples at point of origination, higher rates of
‘converted’ interest only mortgages, lower forecast equity levels and is
concentrated in the South West, East, North West, London and the West
Midlands.


C. 2032 - the final peak is driven by residential interest only mortgages opened
from 2005 to 2008 (with higher income multiples and loan to values) and the
mortgages converted to interest only terms at some point during the life of
the mortgage. There are concentrations of highly indebted individuals with
low or negative equity in the property at the point of maturity within this
tranche

 

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These are the leveraged mog7s who bid up housig.

As the SHTF their exits will reduce prices.

The loans will be sorted out before the full term i.e. the B group will be acted on nowish.

C group in 10 years.

Most will only be able to maintain their position due to ZIRP.

Come higher IRs and theyll be repod ASAP.

 

 

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House on my street just gone for £160k, for a two bed semi in a WY market town. Sets a new ceiling price after ~3weeks on the market. Previous one that didn't have a kitchen extension was £140k, and is now under going a gut/refit. These dipped to ~£100k in 2011. Insane for the size of them!

Owners are selling up to bugger off to the East Yorkshire coast.

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Bobthebuilder
14 minutes ago, Cosmic said:

House on my street just gone for £160k, for a two bed semi in a WY market town. Sets a new ceiling price after ~3weeks on the market. Previous one that didn't have a kitchen extension was £140k, and is now under going a gut/refit. These dipped to ~£100k in 2011. Insane for the size of them!

Owners are selling up to bugger off to the East Yorkshire coast.

I have just seen today a 2 bed end of terrace listed in North Dorset for £500k. A new high for the area. That's a higher price than I have ever seen in my area of London, for a 2 bed.

Mental.

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8 hours ago, spygirl said:

That claim was  work of fiction.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43729508

 

York wages are well i nthe bottom 50%. ~26k

A couple, both earning that can afford -a ~200k mortgage.

York will fall fast n hard with higher IRs.

 

 

How big a factor in prices is remote working on London wages in the likes of York and other northern places that have now become more accessible do you reckon?

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15 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

How big a factor in prices is remote working on London wages in the likes of York and other northern places that have now become more accessible do you reckon?

Honestly, I dont know.

For a lot if screen based office jobs WFH is here to stay.

I was planning at moving to a 2 day in London, travelling down n Premuer Inning it. That seems to have arrived be 5 years earlier than expected.

Theres not a huge number if jobs that'll work. And the way away places are bugger, so can absorb London exodus.

And .... London sales gave crashed hard, so if you've not escaped already then you might have a struggle.

 

 

 

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HousePriceMania
52 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Honestly, I dont know.

For a lot if screen based office jobs WFH is here to stay.

I was planning at moving to a 2 day in London, travelling down n Premuer Inning it. That seems to have arrived be 5 years earlier than expected.

Theres not a huge number if jobs that'll work. And the way away places are bugger, so can absorb London exodus.

And .... London sales gave crashed hard, so if you've not escaped already then you might have a struggle.

 

 

 

Did I post this...

http://chiswickw4.com/default.asp?section=property&page=stats2111.htm

"After a brief mini-boom in the first half of 2021 due to the Stamp Duty holiday, the number of sales of homes collapsed in the second half of the year."

"Inevitably head office thinks the answer is more leafleting campaigns which at least does get the phones ringing - with people complaining about being sent leaflets!"

:D

 

So far, the Land Registry has only recorded 45 sales in the W4 postcode area since the duty exemption ended which provides slim pickings when spread among the still significant number of agents' offices in the area. Some offices are rumoured to have not made a single sale since last June.

 

If people are reliant on london to buy in the shires, if they have levered up and bought on the assumption that they'll sell up when the london market picks up there could be a lot of seriously ****ed people idiots.

 

Property Lion is definitely showing oop north is gone despite reports to the contrary, people seem to be in denial that this is happening...

 

image.png.c4742d69f3053adebee863d53410b378.png

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1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Did I post this...

http://chiswickw4.com/default.asp?section=property&page=stats2111.htm

"After a brief mini-boom in the first half of 2021 due to the Stamp Duty holiday, the number of sales of homes collapsed in the second half of the year."

"Inevitably head office thinks the answer is more leafleting campaigns which at least does get the phones ringing - with people complaining about being sent leaflets!"

:D

 

So far, the Land Registry has only recorded 45 sales in the W4 postcode area since the duty exemption ended which provides slim pickings when spread among the still significant number of agents' offices in the area. Some offices are rumoured to have not made a single sale since last June.

 

If people are reliant on london to buy in the shires, if they have levered up and bought on the assumption that they'll sell up when the london market picks up there could be a lot of seriously ****ed people idiots.

 

Property Lion is definitely showing oop north is gone despite reports to the contrary, people seem to be in denial that this is happening...

 

image.png.c4742d69f3053adebee863d53410b378.png

Yeah I know......

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7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

This out to get the nationwide ( nation-wide ) average up

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Cosmic said:

House on my street just gone for £160k, for a two bed semi in a WY market town. Sets a new ceiling price after ~3weeks on the market. Previous one that didn't have a kitchen extension was £140k, and is now under going a gut/refit. These dipped to ~£100k in 2011. Insane for the size of them!

Owners are selling up to bugger off to the East Yorkshire coast.

 

6 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have just seen today a 2 bed end of terrace listed in North Dorset for £500k. A new high for the area. That's a higher price than I have ever seen in my area of London, for a 2 bed.

Mental.

 Sign's that the House Price top is in? DB also called a housing top a few days ago, he has a fine record of financial prediction skill.

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Bobthebuilder
38 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Sign's that the House Price top is in? DB also called a housing top a few days ago, he has a fine record of financial prediction skill.

Durham Born only posted that because he knows @HousePriceManiais correct, and he didn't want to look bad on his calls.

£500k for a two bed in Dorset? This game is well and truly over.

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11 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/best-mortgage-deals-disappear-banks-increase-interest-rates/

Best mortgage deals disappear as banks increase interest rates

 

Given we know house prices are a factor of interest rates and debt then less debt and higher rares means lower prices.

I am going to kill the mortgage this summer.

I will have to borrow a bit off my wife and son,

Doable.

For your interest, my is interest is our interest.

Paying family first.

Banks can fuckoff

 

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Bobthebuilder
7 minutes ago, The Grey Man said:

I am going to kill the mortgage this summer.

Awesome.

Everything changes after that, takes a while to get used too.

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8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Durham Born only posted that because he knows @HousePriceManiais correct, and he didn't want to look bad on his calls.

£500k for a two bed in Dorset? This game is well and truly over.

Yes perhaps he did - doubt he's too worried about bad calls given his track record so far, but then I would be in his position- but that's me. He has also said (years ago) that he expects 60+% HP falls in the south gradually moving up the country to 10/20% in t'north over the cycle, that was about until 2030. But the Plandemic has maybe moved that forward to 2027/8. Inflation adjusted for all of that is the part I'm really not sure about (all that is based on my memory not always as accurate as it should be xD) Cheers

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7 hours ago, The Grey Man said:

These things make the papers every few years or so, people basically making flats out of cupboards. By rights, I don't see why the trend should not have come in - there could be some really good money for someone dividing an old office up into thousands of very small rooms.

The trend has not come in though, I think because these places are not mortgageable, thus cutting down the potential owners, and if bought to rent the greed of anyone refusing to play the long game thus making it poor value.

Here I suspect the tenant is a work of fiction, maybe a friend of the owner has rented to deliver an artificially high yield for a mug investor to get. The renter would have to pay their own utilities, thus pushing the cost up to over £1k a month. It makes no sense at all for someone working 2 days in London. If you could book in advance and get special offers 30 days in budget hotels would probably come to not much more than £1k.

I do think there is a gap in the market but the theoretical price at which it becomes popular would be much lower.

Who's to say it might not change in the future? The only thing keeping prices up as I see it is very low levels of supply. It does seem incredible that it could stay like this.

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16 hours ago, Cosmic said:

House on my street just gone for £160k, for a two bed semi in a WY market town. Sets a new ceiling price after ~3weeks on the market. Previous one that didn't have a kitchen extension was £140k, and is now under going a gut/refit. These dipped to ~£100k in 2011. Insane for the size of them!

Owners are selling up to bugger off to the East Yorkshire coast.

2 bed where I live in outer London go for £700'000. The young don't stand a chance.. 

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HousePriceMania
9 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Durham Born only posted that because he knows @HousePriceManiais correct, and he didn't want to look bad on his calls.

£500k for a two bed in Dorset? This game is well and truly over.

I dont think I called the top....I think the UK government will now just keep making numbers up even if prices half :P

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HousePriceMania
32 minutes ago, macca said:

2 bed where I live in outer London go for £700'000. The young IDIOTS WHO BOUGHT LAST YEAR don't stand a chance.. 

FTFY

If house prices don't crash now then the currency will. 

Take your pick.

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4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

FTFY

If house prices don't crash now then the currency will. 

Take your pick.

I was on the house price crash for years.. sure it would happen.. 

But once you factor in governments and bankers corruption, the rigging of the system and the trillions of $ floating around in printed money looking for a place to settle.. I can see they could push them higher.

The funny printed money exists to easily do this.

Although it's not funny.. its just crime.. 

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1 hour ago, macca said:

I was on the house price crash for years.. sure it would happen.. 

But once you factor in governments and bankers corruption, the rigging of the system and the trillions of $ floating around in printed money looking for a place to settle.. I can see they could push them higher.

The funny printed money exists to easily do this.

Although it's not funny.. its just crime.. 

 

So you have to, to some extent, step, out if it.

House prices are only increasing relative to wages and cash deposits because the government can manipulate those.

If you shift into other investments that rise against sterling rather than simply matching it then you start to win against the government manipulation because they are going up in nominal terms faster than houses.

Governments' main ability is to tinker with nominal values which they do so making wages low and house prices high.

If you have, say, physical gold then that's standing still whilst the currency devalues and that's all that you need to do to become steadily, relatively, richer.

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