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Property predictions 2022


sarahbell
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13 minutes ago, Boon said:

I'm sure this was covered on another thread.

Would be amazed if there is a fall, but ultimately the aggregated stat is meaningless.

I would bet that the headline number will be a low positive single digit number which hides that the North gains and the South loses. That number may become higher if they can pull a stunt like 'remedial work adjusted' sales figures out of their backsides as many flats values have declined by the value of such works.

This presents the government with the best outcome as it can be spun many ways; house prices can be said to be increasing but not unsustainably, levelling up is working, housing is becoming more affordable in real terms (as it is less than inflation). For the southerners that complain about their decreased values it can be pointed out that average prices in the whole country is increasing, so just bad luck for them, and they had it the other way around a decade back.

I think the North will fall, just not as fast as the South.

 

 

 

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I predict some areas will fall, but some areas will go up, but the average price will average out to up 5% over the year.

In my village we've currently only got 4 houses for sale, but 43 SSTC. Anything 1/2 decent is sold within weeks for higher and higher prices. These are the type of area I predict will be up, possibly be 10% over the year. 
 

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Bobthebuilder
18 minutes ago, spongeh said:

In my village we've currently only got 4 houses for sale, but 43 SSTC

I watch towns that have those kinds of stats. The villages I look at tend to have about 25 houses max in total. But, they all seem similar, with for sale being about 10% of SSTC.

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I will go contrarian. Huge numbers of SSTC transactions can't stay in limbo for ever, and not many of them that haven't completed by now ever will. Just a decent number of them coming back to market could flip the ratio of buyers and sellers. Add in inflation making the carry cost of an empty property harder to justify, and I predict falls.

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With a crooked smile
33 minutes ago, One percent said:

My mate who has spent the last 25 years making a living from property reckons that interest rates will hit ten percent next year. 

I think the UK economy would implode if base rates hit 3-4%. At 10% God knows what would happen. 

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Chewing Grass
4 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

I think the UK economy would implode if base rates hit 3-4%. At 10% God knows what would happen. 

Skem in 1984, tres-modern estate in the early 70s to this in under 10 years.

2006470212_Screenshotfrom2021-12-2422-09-00.jpg.ab6dc8616cca17db576042734e7c14c8.jpg

You can buy the book here, Runcorn was the same.

https://www.caferoyalbooks.com/shop/stephen-mccoy-skelmersdale-landscapes-1984

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Chewing Grass
42 minutes ago, One percent said:

My mate who has spent the last 25 years making a living from property reckons that interest rates will hit ten percent next year. 

5% would do it, never mind 10%.

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49 minutes ago, One percent said:

My mate who has spent the last 25 years making a living from property reckons that interest rates will hit ten percent next year. 

While I don't reckon your mate's forecast will come to pass, I do think that is exactly the kind of sentiment needed for falls.

I think we underestimate the psychological hit from just the first rate rise for many; the certainty that rates could only go negative sooner or later and never go up was an article of faith. How many people were counting down to getting a cheque every month from their mortgage lender? Certainly only morons, but they aren't rare.

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2 hours ago, One percent said:

My mate who has spent the last 25 years making a living from property reckons that interest rates will hit ten percent next year. 

Unlikely given it would implode the economy as others have said.I think we're a way away from the govt having to make such a forced choice as that

7 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I recon flat to 5% nationally. But tbf it's a complete guess and it could be minus 10 or plus 20

I'd agree.Very hard to predict as it turns like a super tanker compared to the smaller turning circle of copper and oil

Even if we got a BK lehman style event,it would be 2023 before there was any blood on the carpet.

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This RM data captures the problem ie that you're guessing price moves on reduced volumes.I know that we're 6 months behind on regs and that the stamp duty holiday brought forward lots of deals but the july figures were 5 months old by Dec and even if there were some late regs,it's hard to draw conclusions from such an illiquid market.

image.png.42aaad6e582ada5c11b0fbacf3bc88e7.png

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My belief is that it will become socially acceptable to put a brick in the face of your landlord should he/she/they piss you off.

And 2% interest rates will see the price of UK property implode.

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2 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I think the UK economy would implode if base rates hit 3-4%. At 10% God knows what would happen. 

The UK economy can withstand much of the UK economy being closed down for best part of 2 years.

If interest rates rise and property prices crash, the UK economy will survive.

You need to move on from your landlord mindset and seeing the UK economy being destroyed if housing becomes affordable.

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3 hours ago, One percent said:

My mate who has spent the last 25 years making a living from property reckons that interest rates will hit ten percent next year. 

Sorry mate, but your mate is not very clued up then

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With a crooked smile
2 hours ago, Hancock said:

You need to move on from your landlord mindset and seeing the UK economy being destroyed if housing becomes affordable

I don't think I'm particularly in the landlord mindset. I'm old enough to renember the ERM and the affect interest rates had on everyone then. It's not just landlords or even property owners that get affected by higher interest rates it's everyone because it massively effects how much money is sloshing around the economy. 

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With a crooked smile
8 hours ago, Boon said:

I would bet that the headline number will be a low positive single digit number which hides that the North gains and the South loses

I think your most likely spot on here. 

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With a crooked smile
6 hours ago, Mirror Mirror said:

instead of asking how much house prices will rise, the question should be, 'How much will currencies (£) devalue in relation to assets such as houses?'

TOS had a graph of uk average house price mapped against gold price that was very illuminating. 

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4 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

TOS had a graph of uk average house price mapped against gold price that was very illuminating. 

 

When I was a regular FT reader they had a "chart of the day" which always appeared to reveal some great hidden truth but when dissected, which was the point of the feature, it was either self-evident or coincidental.

Measuring against the gold price is a good way to strip out inflation which then shows up small nominal rises for the real terms falls that they actually represent. 

 

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10 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

I’d go up. However, really the Bank of England should be raising interest rates to 3-5% levels but I doubt they will.

 

I agree.

As in yes they should and no they won't.

The most for which I'm semi-realistically hoping is back up to 1% by the year end.

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With a crooked smile
3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

When I was a regular FT reader they had a "chart of the day" which always appeared to reveal some great hidden truth but when dissected, which was the point of the feature, it was either self-evident or coincidental.

Measuring against the gold price is a good way to strip out inflation which then shows up small nominal rises for the real terms falls that they actually represent. 

 

Happy Christmas @Frank Hovis

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15 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I am basically going with the scenario of "It's now just to big to fail".

Any slight threat then up the immigration numbers(still have HK coming) or even relax lending if that's even possible now, or maybe a 50 year mortgage?

One thing covid has taught me, houses must not fall under any circumstances, I thought I understood UK economics on a basic level but I 100% don't

Rookie mistake.
Mortgages with terms over 25year dont give you extra money to drive up houses.
Al they do is string out the mortgage for years, costing much more in IR payments.

Its not too big to fail, nothing is.


 

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