Property predictions 2022

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Io btl are commercial loans.

No certification required; commercial lending is big boy rules.

If the bank is daft enough to lend and the LL is daft enough to take on a commercial loan then so be it.

 

When I was looking yesterday at 2nd home options, it was either, add to existing mortgage for a holiday home or directed to commercial section for a btl or holiday furnished rental.

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Io btl are commercial loans.

No certification required; commercial lending is big boy rules.

If the bank is daft enough to lend and the LL is daft enough to take on a commercial loan then so be it.

 

Im not talking about an Interest Only mortgage. 

[Hancock]

6 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Hes right.

At sub 10% yields a LL will be putting cash into the property.

Not if they bought at anytime in the last 2 decades, as property has been a govt. backed investment.

[With a crooked smile]

4 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When I was looking yesterday at 2nd home options, it was either, add to existing mortgage for a holiday home or directed to commercial section for a btl or holiday furnished rental.

The easiest way in standard buy to let mortgage tell them you will put it on standard tenancy agreement then do what you want once you've got the mortgage. I had a holiday let for years on virgin money btl mortgage there are no checks. Formal holiday let mortgages are harder to get and more expensive as there are only 2 lenders I can think of. 

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, With a crooked smile said:

The easiest way in standard buy to let mortgage tell them you will put it on standard tenancy agreement then do what you want once you've got the mortgage. I had a holiday let for years on virgin money btl mortgage there are no checks. Formal holiday let mortgages are harder to get and more expensive as there are only 2 lenders I can think of. 

There are checks. Tgey just dont happen instantly.

I can think if several places locally where a resi or btl mortgage has been used for a FHL and tge bank has closed the mortgage.

Theres only 2 notable FHL lenders - Leeds and the cumberland bses.

[With a crooked smile]

Just now, spygirl said:

There are checks. Tgey just dont happen instantly.

I can think if several places locally where a resi or btl mortgage has been used for a FHL and tge bank has closed the mortgage.

Theres only 2 notable FHL lenders - Leeds and the cumberland bses.

Personal experience with Virgin there are none. At the end of a fixed deal when you fix again they don't ask to see a tenancy agreement or any accounts to show regular monthly payments. Have you ever had a holiday let on a mortgage? 

[spygirl]

8 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Personal experience with Virgin there are none. At the end of a fixed deal when you fix again they don't ask to see a tenancy agreement or any accounts to show regular monthly payments. Have you ever had a holiday let on a mortgage? 

No, I dont have a holiday let.

But a large percentage of local housing stock is.

You hear pretty quickly when things go wrong and why.

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Personal experience with Virgin there are none. At the end of a fixed deal when you fix again they don't ask to see a tenancy agreement or any accounts to show regular monthly payments. Have you ever had a holiday let on a mortgage? 

Quick question if I may. If you were, say, investigated by hmrc, would you get away with this? Genuine question, I may do the same if it's an option.

[With a crooked smile]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Quick question if I may. If you were, say, investigated by hmrc, would you get away with this? Genuine question, I may do the same if it's an option.

No because as long as you are paying your taxes hmrc couldn't give a crap how you are financing the mortgage. Despite what @spygirlsays just look at the amount of properties on say Airbnb do you honestly believe these are all owned outright or mortgaged with cumberland ect. I've never had any questions asked personally and I've never heard of anyone having any issues either and I live in holiday let Central (keswick) and have experience or a very similar area previously. 

[haroldshand]

37 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Those 2 sentences are a contradiction.

People blame landlords because they outbid would be owner occupiers and within weeks the same house would be back on RM, but in the rental section.

But greedy, nation wrecking, parasitic cunts is more appropriate than just "greedy" ... the ones buying after 2009 got lucky with Funding For Lending, Term Funding Scheme to keep their mortgage rates down, as prices were on the cliff edge just before these scams were announced by Gidiot and Carney ......and then they were gifted vast amounts HPI thanks to Help to Sell.

Not that any landlord is bright enough, or has the self awareness to figure out this vile kind of socialism is what has gifted them other peoples money over the last decade.

Seriously good luck to them..

I cannot stand the business and many of the people in it and yes it has caused too much damage in society and with my brief period on ToS I slagged them off as much as the next man. But it's not down to them individually to be the moral compass in society, that is supposed to be the government. Personally when it comes to this matter my hate is directed at Tony Blair hands down.

[spygirl]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Quick question if I may. If you were, say, investigated by hmrc, would you get away with this? Genuine question, I may do the same if it's an option.

No.

Airbnb hand over all booking info to HMRC.

[With a crooked smile]

1 minute ago, haroldshand said:

Personally when it comes to this matter my hate is directed at Tony Blair hands down

Look at how many Labour mps are into b2l. They fully understand the effect of housing benefit. When asked its always their non mp partner that in charge of it see thonbery ect. Bet when it comes to selling though they use both parties capital allowances. 

[With a crooked smile]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

No.

Airbnb hand over all booking info to HMRC.

He's not talking about booking revenue he's talking about do hmrc care if you have a residental b2l mortgage on a fhl at least that's my understanding. And obviously they don't care as it's a contractual thing between the LL and the mortgage Co. Ie not a tax issue. 

[Chewing Grass]

Anyone with a BTL portfolio should be banned from Public Office and that includes being a Local Councillor.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, With a crooked smile said:

He's not talking about booking revenue he's talking about do hmrc care if you have a residental b2l mortgage on a fhl at least that's my understanding. And obviously they don't care as it's a contractual thing between the LL and the mortgage Co. Ie not a tax issue. 

I was asking as a 30 year+ self-employed person. I stand every chance of a hmrc visit at any time, and was asking if it stands up in the eye of the law.

I dont expect you to know the answer, but I might have to house a relative soon, so looking for options.

PS. I meet the lovely women in your avatar many years ago in Ansty, Dorset.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Anyone with a BTL portfolio should be banned from Public Office and that includes being a Local Councillor.

Placed against a wall, and shot.

[With a crooked smile]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

asking if it stands up in the eye of the law.

You could potentially be done for mortgage fraud but hmrc wouldn't be interested. Tommy Robinson got done for mortgage fraud but I don't know all the details around it. Chances v v remote tho. 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

On 25/12/2021 at 09:34, One percent said:

She is convinced and unloading properly 

In Dorset i see flats going down and detacheds going up. Esp bungalows.

I think lots of landlords have been shaken by the states interference in the last 2-3 years.

 

Things were generally starting to slide in nth Dorset with many re-availables and reductions.

However the ten days up to xmas in these parts there were still bungalows going sstc in 24 hours.

I know cos i looked at one. Its also taken me a dogs age to shift my place and i sold at the end of Nov for a price im happy enough with.

Can hardly find a single place under £500k worth leaving here for though. Completely bonkers.

I think its now running on the fumes of pure greed, rather than baseline confidence however. 

If Sunak can resist the urge to "help", i think on balance things will slide about 5% in my part of the world this year.

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, Hancock said:

But you've done well out of being a scrounging cunt and have got lucky that interest rates have stayed at this level for 10 years ... and i dont for 1 second belive you thought they would when you took out your mortgages.

I don't think there's any need for personal abuse like that at all H,there was nothing in the the comment to jsutify a response like that.

11 hours ago, haroldshand said:

They are the greatest example of people thinking they could see the world as it really was and slagged off so many other websites for being "sheeple" as they called them. They had the greater knowledge from as far back as the early 2000's and their reasoning was beyond doubt and where they banned dissenters on the spot for questioning them.

Two decades later and no apologies and so many lived fucked because of their 100% wrong prediction

I think too many people focues on ToS for the general theme of it's predictions.I learned a shedload of a number of psoters there,some were bulls,some were bears.DB set up the deflation thread on Dosbods when both me and him started getting moderated/suspended for no reason.

In the end the only thread I was really learning off was the deflation thread,the rest of it had become rather cumbersome and one dimensional.

I got my hosue price predictions wrong for years mind but the education I got about the fractional reseve banking system/CB's 2008-2012 was something I'd never have got from the MSM

23 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

That's pretty personal fella.

You don't know me what I've been through, what my motivations are or what I've done for others less fortunate than myself. 

I'd suggest reading Kiplings 'If' to know my personal outlook on life a little better. 

This was how ToS got.one of th thigns that differentiates the debate in the basement is that the debate is two sided and vibrant with market particioants from all sides.ToS descended into a one sided slanging match where people like me got mdoerated for jsut poitning out that the price action was the price action.

It always interests me to learn how different players assess and take risk.You happen to have taken yours in property/hospitality.I take mine in equities/options.Same themes but different theatres of economic life.There's so much to learn and so little time.

I for one really apprecaite your thought provoking contributions and am looking forward to a good discussion on thread ref mortgage market,property bulls and bears.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

These last 24 hours has been a game changer for me, I have to admit that I have not really looked into buying anything since 2012 when I bought my current place.

I have read @spygirlposts recently about banks not wanting to lend but, took it with a pinch of salt. Had a look at nw myself today, strict rules on 2nd homes and btl, which is a good thing. Stamp duty is the other biggie, £18,000 on a place valued at £350,000. Crikes.. Council tax is another expensive ongoing cost.

F##k knows who can afford to buy all these places I see currently sat SSTC, just people swapping expensive houses with each other I guess.

Not looking good for continued house price inflation in my book.

Fascianting psot there Bob.I'm at ones and two's with the different views on thsi thread in terms of mrotgage avaialability.The only thing we know for sure is teh price action and transaction figures but interested when someone with your posting histroy says something like that.I think there's a case for arguing that prices could well rise on shrinking volume for sure for sometime.

I think its goign to be itneresting to see if the market can sustain it's curent price trajectory whsilt suffering death by a 1000 cuts with disposable dropping in real terms due to fuel/food price rises.Round ehre,leicestershire,it's an equity swapping market.

As Spy says,the three D's will drive any rise in sales instructions but at the mintue,the psotcodes I monitor are showing no signs of being flooded.

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Round me its all HK Chinese.

This is part of teh oint I was making about overseas buyers being lsited on the land reg as cash buyers when they're leveraged in a different jurisdiction.If the Chinese shadow banks blowup at the same time as the UK ones-highly likely,then the marginal buyers will ebcoem fewer.

4 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

People always blame 'greedy' landlords for pushing up prices.

I disagree. It is the fact that a landlord will accept a 3% yield that has done the damage. Had they stuck to the 10% of old, they wouldn't have bid up prices anything like as much.

LL's had a tax break that they lsot with S24.The tax break encouraged leveraging into property in a way that it didn;t encourage leveraging into shares.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was asking as a 30 year+ self-employed person. I stand every chance of a hmrc visit at any time, and was asking if it stands up in the eye of the law.

I dont expect you to know the answer, but I might have to house a relative soon, so looking for options.

PS. I meet the lovely women in your avatar many years ago in Ansty, Dorset.

The Fox?

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, haroldshand said:

Seriously good luck to them..

I cannot stand the business and many of the people in it and yes it has caused too much damage in society and with my brief period on ToS I slagged them off as much as the next man. But it's not down to them individually to be the moral compass in society, that is supposed to be the government. Personally when it comes to this matter my hate is directed at Tony Blair hands down.

The govt sets the rules and the players play the market.DOn't get me wrong,I think BTL tax breaks until S24 have damaged our society no end,but I blame the politicans who allowed it to continue rather thna the LL's,they were jsut trying to do the best they could for themselves and tehir families.

A lot of us got it badly worng during ToS days and you have to live with that

[With a crooked smile]

12 hours ago, haroldshand said:

They are the greatest example of people thinking they could see the world as it really was and slagged off so many other websites for being "sheeple" as they called them. They had the greater knowledge from as far back as the early 2000's and their reasoning was beyond doubt and where they banned dissenters on the spot for questioning them.

Two decades later and no apologies and so many lived fucked because of their 100% wrong prediction

Good Post @haroldshandI missed this earlier until @sancho panzaquoted it.

What most annoyed me about the whole 'sheeple' thing was not that they were wrong but the whole arrogant attitude that went with it.

No one could have predicted ZIRP and how far the government would kick the can down the road. It was the whole talking down to people and crushing debate that got me. 

I fully admit that I've been lucky until now. I've taken a few chances gone with my gut and do far its worked out. I firmly believe that one day the table will change but if anyone genuinely knew when that day was they would make a killing. 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

The easiest way in standard buy to let mortgage tell them you will put it on standard tenancy agreement then do what you want once you've got the mortgage. I had a holiday let for years on virgin money btl mortgage there are no checks. Formal holiday let mortgages are harder to get and more expensive as there are only 2 lenders I can think of. 

Fascianting insight,as you say,I can;t imagine the HMRC would be bothered as long as you're filing holiday let returns(i udnerstand there are some differences from a taxation point of view).

In terms of mrotgage fraud,unless it's specifically laid out in the T+C's,then it doesn't appear to fit any of the criteria herein but I'm not a lawyer

https://www.stuartmillersolicitors.co.uk/sentences/sentence-for-mortgage-fraud/

 

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was asking as a 30 year+ self-employed person. I stand every chance of a hmrc visit at any time, and was asking if it stands up in the eye of the law.

I dont expect you to know the answer, but I might have to house a relative soon, so looking for options.

PS. I meet the lovely women in your avatar many years ago in Ansty, Dorset.

There appear to be some benefits to hliday lets ie that you can use it yourself.

https://www.holidaycottagemortgages.co.uk/holiday-let-or-buy-to-let/

• Following punitive tax changes to the way income tax is calculated on buy to let properties, landlords can claim only a portion of their mortgage interest as offsetable against profits. For landlords with large mortgages, this can amount to very substantial changes to net profit, and in many cases, turns the business case from positive to negative.
• As furnished holiday lets are considered by HMRC to be a business, there is currently no limit on the amount of mortgage interest incurred that you can offset against your profits. For higher rate tax payers, this can reduce your income tax bill considerably and save many thousands of pounds.
• If you sell a holiday let, you might be able to benefit from certain capital gains tax reliefs, such as Entrepreneurs Relief, which would reduce the tax on the sale to 10%. Compare that to capital gains on buy to let properties, which currently stands at 28% for higher rate taxpayers.
• Lastly, whilst HMRC is currently contesting this point, holiday let properties are considered to be Business Property for the purposes of inheritance tax, and as such, would be up to 100% exempt upon transfer.

 

[King Penda]

On 25/12/2021 at 17:46, haroldshand said:

I have heard every reason  under the sun why property prices will collapse, the likes of ToS have been even worse and been around two decades.

Yes it's mad and you talk "logic" and yes interest rates should(and I hope) will rise and inflation will go mad and yes to this that and the other and yet I am still following my plan and living abroad for a few years rather than waiting for a property crash that I willing to bet will not happen.

Brilliant if you are right, but hand on heart I don't even give it a 10% hope in the next three years at least

You might see a 10% dip up north but I doubt it wages will increase with inflation the south is toast