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Property predictions 2022


sarahbell
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33 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

they need/should be encouraged to think upon the sums they are spending, and 'their' costs in relation to this.

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

"I honestly don’t know how to get over the panic of losing all that money.
Keep thinking of what it could’ve gone on instead and it’s so painful."

Imagine these same people finding their new £400 TV for £300 a week after buying! People will price compare flights and car insurance to save a few hundred, and yet with housing ten thousand either way is trivial. It is absolutely crazy.

8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Why women should not have the vote or a bank account.

...

Well. lets see what IRs do, shall we?

Thumbs up on both counts!

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10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Imagine these same people finding their new £400 TV for £300 a week after buying! People will price compare flights and car insurance to save a few hundred, and yet with housing ten thousand either way is trivial. It is absolutely crazy.

Thumbs up on both counts!

I cant be arsed to read it, to see what she paid for the house.

If she overpaid by 60k on a 200k then, yup, gonna hurt.

If she overpaid 60k on a 800k then Id suggest that that 60k is the least of her worries.

 

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On 27/12/2021 at 12:16, BurntBread said:

@sancho panza, I think I am saying there is a role for something beyond "The govt sets the rules and the players play the market." Folding that into financial decisions is probably very foolish, financially, but maybe not everything can be reduced to money. I know you put an awful lot back into society through what you do, so happy to be told that you keep financial decisions free of irrational thinking.

I msut say I find all this BTL baiting somewhat disingenuous.The rules were changed to allow BTL in the 90's and a generation of mainly now 50 somethings benefited.It's a legal way to make money.

All the zirp/QE/bad lending/Basel1/2/3 etc that has followed was organsied by politicians (although admittedly some of them were fat in the trade).It's the politicians you need to vent at.

I'm 51,we rent,it's not ideal,but we've made our choices as afmaily that me and Mrs P wouldn't buy so we could invest more broadly.I used to rage about it all but if I'd known then what was coming in terms of moentary policy,I'd have gone into BTL too most likely.

My main point is that the 'Everything' bubble that has resulted from years of easy moeny has enabled a lot of players using borrowed to invest to get rich.Whether that's because they read the trade or got lucky doesn't matter.

I trade to make moeny for my family.I rent to make money for my family.We're moving to a place we're renting on a 2.5% gross yield where the LL is happy to take that and absorb my interest rate risk and the risk I might run if I were borrowing up to my limit.I'm also grateful he's putting his collateral on the line to enable me to live in a place I'd never buy.

It's a two way st and whilst the LL's have had the run of play thus far over 20,I suspect the next ten won't be so kind but that's my view and their risk.

On 27/12/2021 at 14:58, With a crooked smile said:

No problem I only have 1 b2l someone on here  has been calling me a landlord which while technically true I wouldn't really regard myself as. I think he's mistaken the fact that I have a commercial mortgage for the fact that I might have a string on properties. In actual fact the commercial mortgage is for an 11 bedroom hotel. 

What people like the person critising me dont see is the struggle to get where I am now. There were times for instance when we slept on the floor having rented our own bedrooms out. I regularly work 7 days a week and that is draining. 

I'd also point out that during covid we gave our tenant in the b2l a free pass on much of the rent as she split up with her boyfriend and then lost her job in the creative industries. 

I am however likely to buy a second buy to let in the next 12 to 18 months. 

I'm not asking for sympathy. I'm happy and grateful for my lot. It's been a combination of taking a bit of risk, working hard and good old fashioned luck that's got me here. 

My day job is in sales so if someone anonymous on the Internet wants to call my anonymous avatar a cunt it really is water off a ducks back. 

The LL bashing is an emotional reaction to the state of the UK property market but the real bvillains of the piece are in parliament.

You've got to do the best for yuorself and your family.Period.If that means investing in property then so be it.

I we end up ina situation where's there;s a major debt default and interest rates rocket,the LL's will be on the end of a possible call on other assets for capital and enduring higher rates than the rent covers.You won't hear many renters incl myself complaining then.

BTL isn't risk free and people forget that.

On 27/12/2021 at 16:00, With a crooked smile said:

I'd agree, the guardian article says its public sector only. If they limit it to specific jobs in PS then I could see it as not to big a risk to say give a junior doctor with a defined career path 7 times salary as I imagine they will quickly move up the ladder /  salary branding. 

How on earth could that go wrong?

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12 hours ago, Boon said:

Some funny bear food:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4438468-Feel-so-Awful-about-my-house

I do wonder if many that FOMO'd last year may be like this. But nobody likes to talk about failures.

Of course, the rest of mumsnet can't have this. It's fucking funny that when someone puts up a listing everyone jumps on the criticism but when the coin is flipped people don't say shit.

 

A lot of people got caught up in a bidding frenzy ahead of the stamp duty holiday

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3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

A lot of people got caught up in a bidding frenzy ahead of the stamp duty holiday

Agree, and when you look at the small 'savings' they made in comparison to the inflated prices they paid as a result, it didn't make sense...if they had thought about it and just waited I am sure they would have saved the extra tax and some!

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9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I msut say I find all this BTL baiting somewhat disingenuous.The rules were changed to allow BTL in the 90's and a generation of mainly now 50 somethings benefited.It's a legal way to make money.

All the zirp/QE/bad lending/Basel1/2/3 etc that has followed was organsied by politicians (although admittedly some of them were fat in the trade).It's the politicians you need to vent at.

 

There was no plan. It was just a massive fuckup by several idiots.

Banks/BS did not used to lend to LL. Various reasons, BS were set up to allow home buyers buy, not LL speculate.

Banks thought the risk was too great.

Basically pre 2000 the only way a LL could borrow money was in the unregulated sector where the non bank raised bonds and lent the LL money, typically, 10 years on commercial terms (expensive).

ARLA lobbied banks for ages, trying to get them to lend to LL.

The stickign point was alwys the bank being able to repo the property. Having a 3rd party - tenant - complicated that.

The longer a bank has a non performing loan on its books, the worse./expensive

ARLA lobbied that the SST allowed the bank to repo within a couple of months.

So banks took this and started lending to LL.

Normally this would have barely been noticed.

However, the new gormless demuted BS needed new borrowers - resi lending was barely growing in the late 90s, at least not fast enough to earn the big £££ the CEO wanted, so the newly demute BS were the most enthusiastic lenders.

But there was still a problem - the yields did not work.

SO some gormless fucker came up IO BTL.

And this is where it gets nuts - an IO BTL is basically a non amortising bridging loan. Yet the gormless banks priced it less than a resi mortgage, which is beyond fuckig nuts.

The other thing - offsetting IR against mortgage - was also nuts. This was never been allowed for investment, which i what IO BTLers.

However, as the banks had never been gormless to to do that lending before HMRC had never bothered to define rules on that.

When IO BTL ramped up the BoE/HMRC should have acted - but this would have cramped Browns massive credit boon, so it ignored.

When Gidiot came in - and he deserves credit for this - the treasury swooped and worked as fast as they can, consulting over 2 years for S24 then bringing it in over 5 years.

The QE/ZIRP just turbo charged IOBTL.

IO BTL will sink most of the leverage IO BTL LLs and destroy a couple of banks.

With S24 this post has never been topped for clear advice -

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/205887-a-goodbye-to-all-that-buy-to-let/

And good riddance too. Sell now, sell everything.

 

And that goes for the banks too.

To have sat on your arse, when youve been 5 year slope to get rid is nuts.

All leveraged IO BTLs are basically in trouble.

Chuck in normalising rates- and IO BTL raidly goes into reverse  with rates higher than ~5% - and they arefucked from so many different angles.

There has been an unholy trinity of ZIRP, very high migration and TC/UC fuckwittery - which has kept demand for BTL high and costs low.

 

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38 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Basically pre 2000 the only way a LL could borrow money was in the unregulated sector where the non bank raised bonds and lent the LL money, typically, 10 years on commercial terms (expensive).

Not strictly true.

In 1990 I had two mortgages, one on a flat I lived in, and one I rented out.

The difference was that they were both repayment mortgages, I had to prove income to service the debt without taking rent in to consideration and there was a 1% surcharge on the let property.

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Bus Stop Boxer
On 29/12/2021 at 23:04, sancho panza said:

A lot of people got caught up in a bidding frenzy ahead of the stamp duty holiday

Air is slow to come out of Sunaks balloon this time.

People aren't giving them away. I got a decent price for my place.

But can i find a worthwhile upgrade without emptying my tin? Can i balls.

Im sposed to be out at the end of the month and have nowhere to go.

Im tempted to STR but just cant rely on big nose not "helping" again.

There is NOTHING more gut rottingly tedious than the UK house "market".

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Frank Hovis
36 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Air is slow to come out of Sunaks balloon this time.

People aren't giving them away. I got a decent price for my place.

But can i find a worthwhile upgrade without emptying my tin? Can i balls.

Im sposed to be out at the end of the month and have nowhere to go.

Im tempted to STR but just cant rely on big nose not "helping" again.

There is NOTHING more gut rottingly tedious than the UK house "market".

 

Yes, I noted a local, Cornwall, DJ who said in the summer that his friend was delighted to have sold within a week at £15k higher than the asking price but then couldn't find anywhere that he could afford to buy.

A young couple, daughter of a friend, had £250k (savings and mortgage) to buy a house in a coastal town to live in during the winter and rent out in the summer; their main jobs were in Portugal.

In 2018 or 2019 this would have bought them a perfectly nice two bed house.  In summer 2020 it bought them a two bed flat.

With inflation roaring away and with twenty years of government props and low interest rates to help house prices I wouldn't want to be out of it at the present.  I know I'm only temping for something to do and wasn't bothered about the salary but my current modest house is 14x my salary which is significantly above average salary and clearly far below my ability to buy if I was buying out of salary.

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Bus Stop Boxer
35 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Yes, I noted a local, Cornwall, DJ who said in the summer that his friend was delighted to have sold within a week at £15k higher than the asking price but then couldn't find anywhere that he could afford to buy.

A young couple, daughter of a friend, had £250k (savings and mortgage) to buy a house in a coastal town to live in during the winter and rent out in the summer; their main jobs were in Portugal.

In 2018 or 2019 this would have bought them a perfectly nice two bed house.  In summer 2020 it bought them a two bed flat.

With inflation roaring away and with twenty years of government props and low interest rates to help house prices I wouldn't want to be out of it at the present.  I know I'm only temping for something to do and wasn't bothered about the salary but my current modest house is 14x my salary which is significantly above average salary and clearly far below my ability to buy if I was buying out of salary.

I should add that there are plenty of posts on here from me stating that nth Dorset was on the slide.

And thats certainly been the case with a lot coming back on unexpectedly.

However the 2-3 weeks up to xmas things went mental. I made an offer 5k in excess of asking and lost out. I would not go further in the bidding war. 

I think i am seeing punters trying to use up some cash, and sellers trying to cash in, or at least get out before the crash. Seen a few sellers really gunning the quick completion angle.

Slight panic on both sides. Understandable really.

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Yes, I noted a local, Cornwall, DJ who said in the summer that his friend was delighted to have sold within a week at £15k higher than the asking price but then couldn't find anywhere that he could afford to buy.

A young couple, daughter of a friend, had £250k (savings and mortgage) to buy a house in a coastal town to live in during the winter and rent out in the summer; their main jobs were in Portugal.

In 2018 or 2019 this would have bought them a perfectly nice two bed house.  In summer 2020 it bought them a two bed flat.

With inflation roaring away and with twenty years of government props and low interest rates to help house prices I wouldn't want to be out of it at the present.  I know I'm only temping for something to do and wasn't bothered about the salary but my current modest house is 14x my salary which is significantly above average salary and clearly far below my ability to buy if I was buying out of salary.

If you - in the broadest terms - cannot afford to buy a house then who will?

Most towns arnt creating much in the way of well paying jobs.

Hows the housing stock going to clear?

 

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51 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I should add that there are plenty of posts on here from me stating that nth Dorset was on the slide.

And thats certainly been the case with a lot coming back on unexpectedly.

However the 2-3 weeks up to xmas things went mental. I made an offer 5k in excess of asking and lost out. I would not go further in the bidding war. 

I think i am seeing punters trying to use up some cash, and sellers trying to cash in, or at least get out before the crash. Seen a few sellers really gunning the quick completion angle.

Slight panic on both sides. Understandable really.

UK mortgage lending is contracting.

Quite eye brow raising.

People are assuming the mortgage money is out there. It's not, hence coming back in the market.

 

Edited by spygirl
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Frank Hovis
7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

If you - in the broadest terms - cannot afford to buy a house then who will?

Most towns arnt creating much in the way of well paying jobs.

Hows the housing stock going to clear?

 

 

For the moment the pool of potential buyers is not the existing residents who would normally be buying out of salary but rather people cashing in HPI gains from other areas and relocating.

That of course serves to keep up demand in Cornwall but where it's going to fall down is the dwindling pool of buyers in the SE who want, and more importantly are able, to pay such inflated prices.

The housing market in London / the SE has to see a rush to the exits triggering big falls before that transfer of HPI equity out down to coast and country can be halted.

Once that has happened then I can see the nice houses, as in those that attracted out of county buyers, holding their value as everybody stays in situ as they intended, whereas the cheaper stock - the terraces, flats, and Barratt Homes on their teeny plots - start absolutely tanking because they rose with the nice houses and are now unaffordable on local wages.

I see this as inevitable with the two big unknowns being when London implodes and how much inflation piles through before that happens.

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Bobthebuilder
30 minutes ago, spygirl said:

UK mortgage lending is contracting.

Quite eye brow raising.

People are assuming the mortgage money is out there. It's not, hence coming back in the market.

 

I can confirm this, I was a bit stunned how little my bank would offer me recently.

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I can confirm this, I was a bit stunned how little my bank would offer me recently.

So will a lit of people whove not took out a mortgage since 2014.

The cheap banks want a comfortable deposit, a roomy income to mortgage payment, and nothing unusual I.e paid off before retirement, paye income.

I took mine out at the start of mmr. It was painful. For a 40% LTV, 0.9 LTE.

However ... it was really fucking cheap. Effectively free money.

 

 

 

 

 

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I guess an interesting development is this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59916812

IMO loads of flats were kept out of the stats in 2020 and 2021, which aided the average as it contained a bigger proportion of houses (which were the ones that saw the increases).

By restricting it to cladding only, I still think there will be sob stories. With things starting to be fixed there must be a glut of these things awaiting to be sold. At least in London I reckon a lot of them who bought recently would be delighted to even recoup what they paid but will they? I think time has not been generous to some new builds. Ie a flat in 2016 with service charge of £200/m rising at 10% a year average, now has it at £400/m in 2023.

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haroldshand
On 03/01/2022 at 17:33, spygirl said:

If you - in the broadest terms - cannot afford to buy a house then who will?

Most towns arnt creating much in the way of well paying jobs.

Hows the housing stock going to clear?

 

The older I get the better I am getting at working on my perspective in any given situation. I step back now and look at millions of people in the UK fighting like rats in a sack for limited housing resources and paying a fortune for the pleasure of doing so, it's like they cannot step back and look for an alternative and are blinded and following everyone else over a cliff.

I know I am lucky and still miles from retirement but if everything goes well covid wise I will be sticking two fingers up and heading for Madeira and then within 2 years after that Central Portugal and with the money I save from the horrors of the British property market I know I am good with that life financially for nearly the next two decades before I need to start worrying.

I will take that

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13 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

The older I get the better I am getting at working on my perspective in any given situation. I step back now and look at millions of people in the UK fighting like rats in a sack for limited housing resources and paying a fortune for the pleasure of doing so, it's like they cannot step back and look for an alternative and are blinded and following everyone else over a cliff.

I know I am lucky and still miles from retirement but if everything goes well covid wise I will be sticking two fingers up and heading for Madeira and then within 2 years after that Central Portugal and with the money I save from the horrors of the British property market I know I am good with that life financially for nearly the next two decades before I need to start worrying.

I will take that

My comment was more a numbers and prices observations.

BoE does set hard limits in terms of mortgage lending - theres no self cert, pretending you're earn 100k working as cleaner.

Theres also no made up payback scheme - no endowment claiming that 40/m will pay back a 200k mortgage and 'still have money left over for a nice car or family holiday ...' or worse, pure IO - paying it back is a problem 20 years down the line.

You get a repayment mortgage, you get your income tested and you borrow a max 4.5x income minus anyother financial commitments.

Thats it.

Look at the fuss before  xmas, where the idiots in the money/property sections had decided that the MMR reviews 9which happen yearly) was going to allow the IR payment testing to be made expansive -

Itll be like 2007 again!!!!

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/bank-of-england-to-relax-mortgage-rules/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/13/bank-of-england-plans-to-remove-interest-rate-check-for-mortgages

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-10280787/Bank-England-relax-mortgage-affordability-bumping-house-prices.html

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/05/bank-england-poised-loosen-mortgage-lending-rules/

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1531820/Housing-bubble-warning-Bank-of-England-mortgage-lending-rules

https://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2021/12/13/bank-of-england-mulls-changes-to-mortgage-affordability-rules/

And drumroll .......... nothing -

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/financial-stability-report/2021/december-2021

The FPC has reviewed its two mortgage market measures

One measure limits the share of new mortgages that can be issued at high loan-to-income ratios. The second requires lenders to assess whether borrowers could continue to afford their mortgage if their mortgage interest rate increased to 3 percentage points above their Standard Variable Rate. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) also has rules on affordability testing.

These measures are designed to limit the risks from excessive household debt. They have done so, including in recent times when house prices have grown rapidly. 

The FPC’s review found that the measure on lending at high loan-to-incomes was more effective at reducing risk in a housing boom, while also having less impact on borrowers in normal times. 

The FCA’s rules on affordability testing combined with the FPC’s loan-to-income limits should be enough to protect UK financial stability. This would also make the rules simpler. The FPC therefore intends to consult in 2022 Q1 on withdrawing its affordability measure.

Thats an effective nothing mind. The LTE rule trumps  the affordability test, which can be dodged by fixing for 5+ years.

And the affordability test was a placeholder til IRs normalise, which looks they will rapidly in 22.

But I digress. Back to my point.

Find a regions/towns median income - these are tracked by the stats people/LA.

Mine is ~23k/y

Keep in mind that ~60% workers will learn that or less.

Next, find out how many working age people are basically not working. This is harder. The numbers are so fudged. But, as a rule, its somewhere between 20%-50% of working age people depend one one form of benefits or another for their income for 30%+ of their income.

And that higher figures are more likely in the South down to TCs and HBs - its no longer grim up north; everyones on the dole down South... esp since finsec has contracted.

Next, use home.co.uk to look at the average selling price.

One, they are much lower than rightmove asking and EA bullshit.

Two, the number of locals - 80% of houses are bought by a local -  who are in the market for buying  is going to be tiny.

Three, look at the number of IO mortgages still around, both BTL and resi. Theres still 50% of 2002-2007 resi IO mortgages, mainly in London/Se to clear/resolve.

Four, look at the number of ads on equity withdrawal. A lot is being pissed up the wall of a Greek tavern.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Axeman123

I think a big part of whatever path prices take in 2022 will be decided by the following:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10380673/Michael-Goves-4billion-plan-save-thousands-cladding-hell.html

Gove has a vague plan to fix cladding at no cost to flat owners and mentions grants, but also wanting private sector to cover the cost and the huge profits these companies have made, also adds that costs might not be as high as feared.

At this stage this could mean anything, delivered over any timescale, or even nothing changing. It could even simply mean the works deemed necessary being hugely scaled back. Whether the taxpayer will end up picking up much of the bill remains to be seen.

As @Boon says a flood of flats becoming sellable could be coming onto the market, perhaps even in anticipation of this undefined scheme. That, plus price discovery, could trigger some real downward pressure.

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Wight Flight
55 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I think a big part of whatever path prices take in 2022 will be decided by the following:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10380673/Michael-Goves-4billion-plan-save-thousands-cladding-hell.html

Gove has a vague plan to fix cladding at no cost to flat owners and mentions grants, but also wanting private sector to cover the cost and the huge profits these companies have made, also adds that costs might not be as high as feared.

At this stage this could mean anything, delivered over any timescale, or even nothing changing. It could even simply mean the works deemed necessary being hugely scaled back. Whether the taxpayer will end up picking up much of the bill remains to be seen.

As @Boon says a flood of flats becoming sellable could be coming onto the market, perhaps even in anticipation of this undefined scheme. That, plus price discovery, could trigger some real downward pressure.

Nobody ever asks how many of these blighted flats are BTL investments - especially overseas landlords.

I think public sympathy might be a lot lower if the truth was known.

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Axeman123
49 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Nobody ever asks how many of these blighted flats are BTL investments - especially overseas landlords.

I think public sympathy might be a lot lower if the truth was known.

I suspect the real target of this soft prop will be the builders with unsold new flat inventory. An undefined scheme that generates positive newspaper coverage before fizzling out without consequence might just be an attempt to re-ignite the London flat market. If (as rumoured) a lot of flat developments have been mothballed that might be another government concern, derelict unfinished developments were the symbol of post 2008 Spain afterall.

Another thought is that the number of Chinese owners of affected flats would make it impossible to collect payment from them for collective works, as they would simply abandon their investment.

 

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With a crooked smile
5 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Nobody ever asks how many of these blighted flats are BTL investments - especially overseas landlords

I was speaking to a friend of mine in London. He did changed his flat in Suburbiton to B2l and moved into a central London flat with his now wife. Told me they couldn't sell up and move because of cladding then he dropped the bomb shell that his wife had bought a couple more flats somewhere in London also affected by cladding. 

His wife's from Singapore 🇸🇬 but I dont think that has much relevance. 

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haroldshand
On 24/12/2021 at 16:10, With a crooked smile said:

I recon flat to 5% nationally. But tbf it's a complete guess and it could be minus 10 or plus 20

If we start hitting 20% falls then my Portugal plans might be going out of the window:)

Though as close to unlikely as you can get

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