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Great Guy

Jizz in pants time!

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I thought that London house prices had been officially falling for about five months already, so I guess this means that they're now officially down year-on-year.

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Interesting bullet point in the above screenshot:

Quote

Lender: London house prices have become absurd

Not sure if the lender is Nationwide or another one, but it's a definite shift in the usual spin. Whichever estate agent they asked has duly trotted out the usual shit but I don't believe I've ever seen a lender call house prices absurd, even in London. That sounds like the sort of thing you'd only say if you'd seriously de-risked your loan book.

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1 hour ago, DTMark said:

I thought that London house prices had been officially falling for about five months already, so I guess this means that they're now officially down year-on-year.

Yeah, YOY negative for the first time.

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I'm going to fix mine for 3 years next week, as I think we're finally FINALLY getting close to seeing some interesting (good) things going on.

1 hour ago, shindigger said:

Sounds like the sort of thing you could blame nasty Brexit on? A very odd, suspicous, tone change. Ever wondered why May is behaving like she don't want the job?

A difficult position for the Graun, who have been hailing the recent house price falls so it chimes well with their younger readership, but at the same time, they can't possibly miss an chance to knock Brexit.

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Quote, the indepentent leads like this

Homeowners hit by double blow as London prices fall and interest rates look set to rise

and goes on to say

'A 0.25 per cent rise would mean a person with a £200,000 mortgage on the average UK variable rate of 4.6 per cent would pay an extra £28.72 per month.'

Now I calculate a 0.25 percent  rise as adding £41.67/month to the bill so they have factored in the lender absorbing some of the increase.

Bearing in mind since the year dot interest rates in good time have been around 15x to 20x the current level at about 5% then mortgage rates at 7.5% would be entirely reasonably.

Hows about an increase of £308/month instead of £28.72.

So that ~£1100/month mortgage on a shoebox starts knocking on the door of ~£1500/month

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Two kids in their 20s. Both with good jobs in central London.  They cannot afford to rent (in a decent property/area) let alone buy. This must be playing out across many families in London. If the establishment doesn't pull this back to something more sensible, they are going to have a lot of angry young people (voters) on their hands. 

The biggest issue however is the massive pressure brought about by unfettered mass immigration. They need to put a stop to this too before the whole thing implodes. 

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5 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

I'm going to fix mine for 3 years next week, as I think we're finally FINALLY getting close to seeing some interesting (good) things going on.

A difficult position for the Graun, who have been hailing the recent house price falls so it chimes well with their younger readership, but at the same time, they can't possibly miss an chance to knock Brexit.

The Guardian like much of the media has been full of property rampers and BTL pimps for years.

The idea that an essentially unproductive asset rising in price through no effort of the owner is somehow a sign of economic success is a mystery I have never been able to fathom. 

Edited by Virgil Caine

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2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

A boomer friend of mine paid half a million pounds for a 1 bed ex council flat in London a couple of years ago. The flat above it is a 3 bed flat, occupied by an ever-growing african family on benefits, who have flooded the flat more than once, leading to flooding problems in the £500k 1 bedder. I can't help but feel that this story really encapsulates the madness of London.

Why anyone would ever buy a Council flat is beyond me. The only exception would be my mums cousin who bought his parents low bedder (low rise block) in Charlton for 18K.

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Watching a bit of "news" today, it's very clear that this time things might well be allowed to slide becoz Brexit. Perfect cover. Perfect.

As many on TOS and on here would have envisaged back along.

Just letting little news rabbits out about rate rises, are scaring the horses big time. No way these discussions would be let loose if we'd remained.

Houses ain't shifting down my way, and stuff is being reduced quite significantly now.

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4 minutes ago, shindigger said:

Watching a bit of "news" today, it's very clear that this time things might well be allowed to slide becoz Brexit. Perfect cover. Perfect.

As many on TOS and on here would have envisaged back along.

Just letting little news rabbits out about rate rises, are scaring the horses big time. No way these discussions would be let loose if we'd remained.

Houses ain't shifting down my way, and stuff is being reduced quite significantly now.

Disagree to some point shinny. This was destined to happen. The whole thing is just not sustainable. Brexit gives them the perfect fall guy. Hotel California , aka not really coming out is inconsequential. 

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Just now, One percent said:

Disagree to some point shinny. This was destined to happen. The whole thing is just not sustainable. Brexit gives them the perfect fall guy. Hotel California , aka not really coming out is inconsequential. 

Yes, i agree that clearly its destined, its just a matter of could they try to stop any correction again.

The new super soaraway autumn budget will be interesting.

What i'm really saying, i guess, is that the will to act again, to stick some plasters on, has maybe melted away, now we have voted leave.

Perfect cover. Whether we leave or not, the uncertainty can be blamed.

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Just now, shindigger said:

Yes, i agree that clearly its destined, its just a matter of could they try to stop any correction again.

The new super soaraway autumn budget will be interesting.

What i'm really saying, i guess, is that the will to act again, to stick some plasters on, has maybe melted away, now we have voted leave.

Perfect cover. Whether we leave or not, the uncertainty can be blamed.

Yep agree. Even they must know the housing game is up.  They were looking for an out and brexit hands them it on a plate. 

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11 hours ago, Kurt Barlow said:

Why anyone would ever buy a Council flat is beyond me.

They tend to offer decent area space and lots of cupboards which is a big plus point plus low serivce charges too if low rise. Neighbours can sometimes be awful even in private areas and blocks.

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9 minutes ago, UmBongo said:

They tend to offer decent area space and lots of cupboards which is a big plus point plus low serivce charges too if low rise. Neighbours can sometimes be awful even in private areas and blocks.

They also result in bills running into the tens of thousands when the council decides that work needs doing.

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14 hours ago, One percent said:

Two kids in their 20s. Both with good jobs in central London.  They cannot afford to rent (in a decent property/area) let alone buy. This must be playing out across many families in London. If the establishment doesn't pull this back to something more sensible, they are going to have a lot of angry young people (voters) on their hands. 

The biggest issue however is the massive pressure brought about by unfettered mass immigration. They need to put a stop to this too before the whole thing implodes. 

You know the government will do nothing and even if they wanted to (they don't), they couldn't. What's happening instead is people are given up on London, the white flight, and trying to recreate it in other second tier cities. All these places are starting to look like fuckin Shoreditch. They are all seeing rent/house price increases on the scale London had and with it the influx of gimmigrants wanting their cut. Instead of pulling London prices down, everywhere else is increasing to meet it.

It'll only stop once nobody can afford to buy and the BTL'ers can't sub-divide the housing stock any more. Once that happens and the banks can no longer create money at an exponential rate via mortgages, our whole debt based economy is fucked and it'll make 2008 look like a garden picnic.

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7 minutes ago, gibbon said:

You know the government will do nothing and even if they wanted to (they don't), they couldn't. What's happening instead is people are given up on London, the white flight, and trying to recreate it in other second tier cities. All these places are starting to look like fuckin Shoreditch. They are all seeing rent/house price increases on the scale London had and with it the influx of gimmigrants wanting their cut. Instead of pulling London prices down, everywhere else is increasing to meet it.

It'll only stop once nobody can afford to buy and the BTL'ers can't sub-divide the housing stock any more. Once that happens and the banks can no longer create money at an exponential rate via mortgages, our whole debt based economy is fucked and it'll make 2008 look like a garden picnic.

There was a series of price rise heat maps spanning multiple housing booms on the effect of waves of money flowing out of London/SE to other regions. London leads the way in price rises and then the falls, taking something like a couple of years before the full transmission effect takes place. London falling now means farther flung counties falling a long time later on. As London property gets increasingly difficult to shift at bubble pricing the money supply to outer regions gets choked off, when that happens local earnings count and there just is not the volume of money to sustain the top end in particular.

 

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10 hours ago, One percent said:

Yep agree. Even they must know the housing game is up.  They were looking for an out and brexit hands them it on a plate. 

Hmm, I'd like to think so, but I'm not convinced yet. The inevitable correction when it finally comes will be massive, and there's no chance of the pain being limited solely to house prices - of that there's no doubt in my mind. But in order to pin something of that magnitude on Brexit, I think they'd need to actually see Brexit through. And at the moment, they appear to be doing everything they can to water it down or avoid it altogether.

Personally I reckon the plan they're following is to take the opportunity to let a little heat out of London where there's less UK lender involvement and more dodgy foreign money - i.e. reduced risk to the banks.  And when the whole country is screaming out for them to do something to save their beloved house prices, they'll explain that it's all to do with Brexit and have a quick second referendum, at which point most home "owners" will dutifully vote to Remain. It's too perfect.

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