Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

Turkey's economy - a glimpse of the future?


Frank Hovis
 Share

Recommended Posts

Frank Hovis

What does a low interest rate policy despite high inflation equal?

A collapsing currency is what.

 

Turkish lira just had its worst year in 2 decades

Turkey’s national currency lost nearly half of its value against the US greenback in 2021

 

And a President begging his people to sacrifice their savings by holding lira.

 

On Friday, Erdogan urged citizens to stick to the lira for their savings, claiming that market volatility was under control.

As long as we don’t take our own money as a benchmark, we are doomed to sink. The Turkish Lira, our money, that is what we will go forward with. Not with this foreign currency or that foreign currency,” he said, adding that his government will continue pursuing a low-interest rate policy, which it sees as a means to lower prices, but is highly criticized worldwide

https://www.rt.com/business/544981-turkish-lira-worst-year/

 

Edited by Frank Hovis
  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a crooked smile

Now if £ sterling was to drop by a similar amount against the dollar / euro over the same time what do we think would happen to London property prices? My thoughts are they would go straight up as a half price sale to foreign investors would be to good to miss. 

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Now if £ sterling was to drop by a similar amount against the dollar / euro over the same time what do we think would happen to London property prices? My thoughts are they would go straight up as a half price sale to foreign investors would be to good to miss. 

Unlikely. If the pound goes to shit all the things that make run a county run smoothly will start grinding to a halt. 

Who wants to pay big money for a house in London if the rubbish is piling up on the streets and crime goes out of control. 

Edited by Joxer
  • Agree 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a crooked smile
1 minute ago, Joxer said:

Unlikely. If the pound goes to shit all the things that make run a county run smoothly will start grinding to a halt. 

Who wants to pay big money for a house in London if the rubbish is piling up on the streets and crime goes out of control. 

I doubt it would fall that far but loads of Russians, Chinese, Middle Eastern and richer Africans don't just see it London housing as an investment they see it as a bolt hole in the west. Plus our idea of a shithole is probably quite desirable to them. 

  • Agree 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Axeman123

Based on a youtube channel follow, Istanbul property has held its value fairly well in USD while obviously multiplying in TRY (I haven't seen an update on the recent chaos in this context though).

The only obvious opportunity the above situation affords is to borrow TRY to buy non-TRY assets and benefit from devalualtion when repaying, but that is an FX play rather than a property play. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frank Hovis

Erdogan reminds me of Captain Rum from Blackadder: "Opinion is divided, all the other Captains Presidents say it is and I say it isn't"

 

The president and his allies says that lower interest rates will boost Turkish exports, investment and jobs.

But many economists say the rate cuts are reckless. Last month, the country's inflation rate hit 21.7%.

Normally, central banks raise rates to combat rising prices, but Mr Erdogan has called such tools "the mother and father of all evil".

Although the bank has attempted to bolster the value of the lira by using its dollar reserves to buy the currency, analysts have said it does not have enough firepower to stop the slide.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59681825?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

 

And the poor get poorer.  Coup anyone?  The last attemnpt was in 2016.

 

"Half of the country is trying to make ends meet with the minimum wage. There is a capital transfer from the poor to the rich. Those who have money add more to their dollars. Other people are trying to make ends meet with their small wages.

"What matters for the people is to stockpile cheese or chickpeas before their prices increase again. People worry because they don't know whether they will be able to buy things that they can buy now. The minimum wage has supposedly increased but the purchasing power is eroding day by day. The poor who live in rental homes are getting poorer day by day."

https://bianet.org/english/economy/255086-interest-rates-are-decreasing-but-turkey-s-debt-is-multiplying

 

Mortgage interest rates at 20%; central bank rate at 16% (down from 18%).

Turkey has been running huge and growing current account deficits, $33.1 billion in 2016 and $47.3 billion in 2017,[17] climbing to US$7.1 billion in the month of January 2018 with the rolling 12-month deficit rising to $51.6 billion,[18] one of the largest current account deficits in the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018–2021_Turkish_currency_and_debt_crisis

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/interest-rate

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joncrete Cungle

Mother is in the process of selling her bungalow in the UK and buying a flat / house / villa somewhere in Turkey. 🙈

  • Agree 1
  • Bogged 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frank Hovis
1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Mother is in the process of selling her bungalow in the UK and buying a flat / house / villa somewhere in Turkey. 🙈

I hope that you have a spare room.

  • Agree 1
  • Lol 4
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joncrete Cungle
Just now, Frank Hovis said:

I hope that you have a spare room.

Had a conversation with my brother yesterday. Told him my spare unoccupied bedroom is remaining half finished and full of fishing tackle & tools. He has just finished the spare room in his house...

Also opened a book with all siblings as to how long it will take for her to come back and how much money she will lose in the process....

  • Agree 2
  • Informative 1
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, With a crooked smile said:

I doubt it would fall that far but loads of Russians, Chinese, Middle Eastern and richer Africans don't just see it London housing as an investment they see it as a bolt hole in the west. Plus our idea of a shithole is probably quite desirable to them. 

Foreign "investors" are fickle and panicky. While they saw London as a safe haven for hiding dodgy cash in the 2000s and 2010s, they are jittery now. If prices start to fall the Chinese will panic sell. Don't believe the hype about all this 'safe as houses' crap.

 

Rocketing material prices + currency crash + panicky foreign buyers with no allegiance to this country = ???

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/turkeys-currency-crash-hammers-nations-builders-2021-12-14/

 

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Mother is in the process of selling her bungalow in the UK and buying a flat / house / villa somewhere in Turkey. 🙈

Tell her to rent somewhere for a couple of years, as she will never sell the house/flat in Turkey.

  • Agree 2
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Foreign "investors" are fickle and panicky. While they saw London as a safe haven for hiding dodgy cash in the 2000s and 2010s, they are jittery now. If prices start to fall the Chinese will panic sell. Don't believe the hype about all this 'safe as houses' crap.

 

Rocketing material prices + currency crash + panicky foreign buyers with no allegiance to this country = ???

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/turkeys-currency-crash-hammers-nations-builders-2021-12-14/

 

I'm not so sure they'll sell, better to have some money in a house in the UK, then have it all taken off you by the Chinese govt.

Same applies to Greek, Russian, Thai, French, American, Arabs etc etc....

If the UK stops becoming one of the worlds best nations for laundering money then it'll be a great day for British plebs.

 

  • Agree 1
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joncrete Cungle
5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Tell her to rent somewhere for a couple of years, as she will never sell the house/flat in Turkey.

She WON'T listen. It's the latest in a long line of poor financial decisions. She has also sold the (mortgage free) UK flat She lived in when she first divorced from my dad. So she has Nowhere to go when it goes Pete Tong and is too old to get a UK mortgage when she returns. GBP turned into Turkish Lira to buy her place in Turkey :ph34r:

  • Agree 1
  • Bogged 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

She WON'T listen. It's the latest in a long line of poor financial decisions. She has also sold the (mortgage free) UK flat She lived in when she first divorced from my dad. So she has Nowhere to go when it goes Pete Tong and is too old to get a UK mortgage when she returns. GBP turned into Turkish Lira to buy her place in Turkey :ph34r:

Friends mother became a widow, sold a nice 3 bed semi in a posh part of England to buy a house in Spain, needless to say 1 year later she had enough of Spain, but couldn't flog the property initially .... though did manage to a couple of years after putting it on the market.

She ended up in a park home!

I used to sell property in several overseas countries including Bulgaria. Anyway some bloke and his entire family bought a couple of houses from us ... prior to his visit we thought he was a timewaster so my business partner got his friend, to get this girl he knew to show him the area .... this stupid cunt who was buying gave her power of attorney over the bank account that he opened, where his pension and house money were going to go, after only knowing her a couple days ... my business partner arranged to get this certificate back from her so she couldn't rip him off, it was made known if she didn't return it there would be genuine trouble. (my business partner was the real deal)

So, i drove a couple of hours and took the POA certificate round to their house (how many agents go to these lengths!), but instead of thanking me, he started going on about how he trusted her, and just had a really good feeling about her ... he then posted it back to her.

What he didn't know was this girl jacked up the price of the property and was ripping him off, and then trying to not pay us our commission.

Some people are just destined to be ripped off, and from what i see close to 100% of people buying overseas lose money. 

 

Edited by Hancock
  • Agree 2
  • Informative 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joncrete Cungle

Had a discussion with her about other half's sisters in laws who sold up to go to Spain in 07 and overpaid. They lost money upon selling to return to the UK in 2015 and now are skint and living a much less affluent lifestyle than previously experienced in the UK and Spain. Won't take a blind bit of notice so meh 🙄

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Had a discussion with her about other half's sisters in laws who sold up to go to Spain in 07 and overpaid. They lost money upon selling to return to the UK in 2015 and now are skint and living a much less affluent lifestyle than previously experienced in the UK and Spain. Won't take a blind bit of notice so meh 🙄

At least if its Spain you'd want to visit and the flight is only a couple of hours ... but over 4 hours to Istanbul is a bit of a killer.

Only time i ever went there was going overland from Sofia to Istanbul to get a flight to BKK ....upon arriving i asked a copper for directions to the train station, he asked where i was from, to which i replied England ... then the dirty cunt spat on the floor and walked off.

Reckon he must have seen some porn movies with English blokes in, and was jealous about the size of our massive bollocks, couldn't really be much else.

Edited by Hancock
  • Lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

wherebee
14 hours ago, Joxer said:

Unlikely. If the pound goes to shit all the things that make run a county run smoothly will start grinding to a halt. 

Who wants to pay big money for a house in London if the rubbish is piling up on the streets and crime goes out of control. 

Millions of asian people would.  sticking half a mill under a trust in a london WC1 property is a no brainer in terms of generational wealth protection when your home government are theiving bastards.

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frank Hovis
7 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Had a discussion with her about other half's sisters in laws who sold up to go to Spain in 07 and overpaid. They lost money upon selling to return to the UK in 2015 and now are skint and living a much less affluent lifestyle than previously experienced in the UK and Spain. Won't take a blind bit of notice so meh 🙄

 

A friend's sister and partner, after watching too many episodes of "A Place in the Sun", "followed their dream" and bought and ran a B&B in Spain for some years.

Covid was the final straw and they are now back, skint, and living with her elderly mother.

My mother watches too many of those programmes and always wants to buy somewhere abroad but I always say why not just rent for six months? That way you have minimal hassle and can live somewhere different each winter.

  • Agree 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

AlfredTheLittle
3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Millions of asian people would.  sticking half a mill under a trust in a london WC1 property is a no brainer in terms of generational wealth protection when your home government are theiving bastards.

Hopefully once inflation starts biting here a desperate government would finally start taxing all these empty homes, if that happened that's what would finally crash their value.

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Frank Hovis
37 minutes ago, nirvana said:

how do the UK reserves compare to this?

 

FIGswoAXoAMjMo2.jpeg

 

Roughly £200bn.

Erdogan, rather than being the heir of the Ottomans, is the Anatolian answer to Robert Mugabe.

  • Agree 2
  • Lol 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

A friend's sister and partner, after watching too many episodes of "A Place in the Sun", "followed their dream" and bought and ran a B&B in Spain for some years.

Covid was the final straw and they are now back, skint, and living with her elderly mother.

My mother watches too many of those programmes and always wants to buy somewhere abroad but I always say why not just rent for six months? That way you have minimal hassle and can live somewhere different each winter.

We always said 12 months rental to get over the honeymoon period and experience real life before buying. 

With Cyprus it worked well as we ended up essentially only wearing 2 x removal costs, a bit of rent and some car depreciation given we sold quickly to come back to the UK.

With Australia we were sitting here watching a perfect storm with house prices - interest rates on the floor, new government bribes incentives and what looked like relaxed lending criteria.  Prices were going mental.  So in that case we bought some land a bit under 12 months.  A risk but one that's worked out for us as it's saved us a tidy sum given the "mad gainz" and given we're staying for a while. 

  • Agree 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

I'm not so sure they'll sell, better to have some money in a house in the UK, then have it all taken off you by the Chinese govt.

Same applies to Greek, Russian, Thai, French, American, Arabs etc etc....

If the UK stops becoming one of the worlds best nations for laundering money then it'll be a great day for British plebs.

 

Would you put your faith in a foreign government though? I wouldn't. 

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sarahbell

So here's a thought.


Who pays for Turkey's hospitals?

Thinking about the travel insurance money that'll have paid for a friend's three week stay  there - how much "profit" will they have made from that?  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Joncrete Cungle
6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

A friend's sister and partner, after watching too many episodes of "A Place in the Sun", "followed their dream" and bought and ran a B&B in Spain for some years.

Covid was the final straw and they are now back, skint, and living with her elderly mother.

My mother watches too many of those programmes and always wants to buy somewhere abroad but I always say why not just rent for six months? That way you have minimal hassle and can live somewhere different each winter.

Mother is of the generation and mindset that renting = failure. An attitude I was frequently on the receiving end of while renting and saving up to buy the house I live in.

 

  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...