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Will the Big Kahuna event occur in 2022?


Spiney Norman
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Spiney Norman

I'm Looking to move some of my cash into Stocks and Shares to minimise the future damage caused by inflation. But i'm very worried the BK could happen soon.

So a poor choice really get wiped out slowly by inflation or move to stocks and wiped out overnight by the BK.

What are the dosbods opinion on the BK in 2022 yes or no?

I would have created a poll but don't know how to.

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Spiney Norman
4 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Cash is trash, assets are king. 

Yeah I can see that is the case now but will it remain that way?

The only things to invest in at the moment are energy(we are going to need more and more), Stuff that comes out the ground and gold.

What's your tactics Dosboders?

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17 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Cash is trash, assets are king. 

Thats bollocks though, as if i put 200 grand into the stock market in February 2020, i'd be lucky to have my money back ... whereas if i bought in March 2020, id have doubled my money.

10 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

What's your tactics Dosboders?

Sit and wait.

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Spiney Norman
3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Sit and wait.

That's what i'm doing, but wait for what?

I waited for the fabled HPC and that wait was expensive!

 

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7 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

That's what i'm doing, but wait for what?

I waited for the fabled HPC and that wait was expensive!

 

 

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BurntBread

Yes, I think the BK will be some time this year, but I'm staying invested anyway, as I can't time it, I would need to think long and hard about exit and re-entry points on all the stocks, and I hope that if I keep my nerve and hold, then I'll get through to the other side fairly undamaged.

I have a bit of a buffer, since I'm up a bit over the last 18 months, which helps. I also don't want to get drawn into trading, which I will certainly be bad at. So, buy and hold (for several years) is the strategy for me. If it all crashes and I burn, then so be it.

I still think that oil, PM miners and telecoms look reasonable value at current prices. Tobacco looks like a decent bet, too (and went up during the 2000 crash, I think). That's the core of my "Mad Max portfolio". I won't be buying more phosphate & potash miners unless they get hit hard in the BK, and I will also be looking to increase exposure to other (non-PM) miners, and industrials if they look cheap in the middle of the carnage.

If David Hunter is right, we can expect a parabolic increase in the indices from now on, and an increase in the yields of long-duration treasuries before the BK. If I see that happening, then I may buy some of a treasury ETF if the 10 year yield gets up over 2%, with a view to selling it in the BK.

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leonardratso

yes

no

who knows, no one here thats for sure.

you could have made 12% today if youd bought some tsla early on, no doubt tomorrow youll lose 25% in the same deal, who knows.
no one here thats for sure.

Edited by leonardratso
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Bobthebuilder
15 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

That's what i'm doing, but wait for what?

I waited for the fabled HPC and that wait was expensive!

 

Tough one ain't it. I have a reasonable pension in a SIPP and a year's allowance in a SSISA, 5 years living expenses in an instant access but, still far too much in a cash ISA.

I'm thinking, fuck it and blow the lot on nice guitars. I bought a vintage guitar around 3 years ago, the asking prices have doubled since.

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11 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

That's what i'm doing, but wait for what?

I waited for the fabled HPC and that wait was expensive!

 

If you followed the predictions made on TOS for the last 15 years you'll not have bought a house and been waiting for the HPC while house prices doubled.

There is a lot of excellent information on here about investing in S&S and what areas may or may no be the right ones to invest in.

But lets take BP for example, we have an idea of what happens with the BP share price when all global travel is stopped and it crashed down to 196p around Oct 25th 2020 and is currently trading around the 330p mark. Now if you took those figures on their own then you'd be expecting that buying shares today at 330p then in a BK your shares will only be worth 196p and you'd be panicing that you'd just lost 1/2 your money, but using the excellent information in the credit deflation thread you'd be expecting the BP share price to be alot higher than the 330p you pay today towards the end of the cycle, but you'll have to ride out the BK and no panic when the share price drops.

I suppose it depends on your trading strategy, if you're in it for the long haul then a BK shouldn't really affect you if you've picked your shares sucessfully.

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With a crooked smile
10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yes

no

who knows, no one here thats for sure.

you could have made 12% today if youd bought some tsla early on, no doubt tomorrow youll lose 25% in the same deal, who knows.
no one here thats for sure.

Yep anyone who really knows would be making loads of money rather than posting on here. 

I'd just say diversify as much as possible. Someone like @Frank Hovisprobably has a sensible outlook on how to do this. Not as interesting maybe as some 'go balls deep into crypto' type threads but the sort of good reasoned advice you expect from an accountant. 

Edited by With a crooked smile
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6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yes

no

who knows, no one here thats for sure.

you could have made 12% today if youd bought some tsla early on, no doubt tomorrow youll lose 25% in the same deal, who knows.
no one here thats for sure.

I think i know that the FED will stop printing money and raise interest rates.

And ZIRP/QE are the reason why the stock market has been on an epic bull run.

I think it'll be a taper tantrum on steroids, so i'll take the gamble.

This bloke makes sense at 20:54.

 

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13 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Tobacco looks like a decent bet, too (and went up during the 2000 crash, I think). 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58317263

Smoking surge in young during Covid lockdown
The number of 18 to 34-year-olds who classed themselves as smokers increased by a quarter, from 21.5% to 26.8%, says Cancer Research UK.

Ok I have BAT shares and I'm enjoying the dividend, but it's still a bit of an evil investment. At least I can justify my BP & Shell shares, while they're semi evil they will/are investing in green tech now.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, spongeh said:

If you followed the predictions made on TOS for the last 15 years you'll not have bought a house and been waiting for the HPC while house prices doubled.

There is a lot of excellent information on here about investing in S&S and what areas may or may no be the right ones to invest in.

But lets take BP for example, we have an idea of what happens with the BP share price when all global travel is stopped and it crashed down to 196p around Oct 25th 2020 and is currently trading around the 330p mark. Now if you took those figures on their own then you'd be expecting that buying shares today at 330p then in a BK your shares will only be worth 196p and you'd be panicing that you'd just lost 1/2 your money, but using the excellent information in the credit deflation thread you'd be expecting the BP share price to be alot higher than the 330p you pay today towards the end of the cycle, but you'll have to ride out the BK and no panic when the share price drops.

I suppose it depends on your trading strategy, if you're in it for the long haul then a BK shouldn't really affect you if you've picked your shares sucessfully.

People on there were buying BP shares well before any crash and above 330p, i do sometimes get the impression that people like to make out they've hit the bottom on every share.

Basically if you think there will be a crash, hold your nerve.

If you lack the nerve, then start dripping/dumping your money into the stock market from here.

Bit brutal but thats how it is!

Edited by Hancock
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1 minute ago, Hancock said:

People were buying BP shares well before any crash and above 330p, i do sometimes get the impression that people like to make out they've hit the bottom on every share.

Agreed and going back to the start of Feb 2020 you'd have paid 470p for BP and at 330p still be underwater, but I think what I'm trying to say is we now have a rough idea of where the bottom for some shares are come the BK. BP is a utility that we currently can't do without and even at the worst point for global travel it dropped to 196p, so it might drop lower in a BK, but not by much and the predictions going forward are that it'll be alot higher.

The bubble currently looks to be in tech stocks again, as per 2000 and I'd not want to be invested in shares like Tesla or the FAANG stocks come the BK 

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Frank Hovis
4 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yep anyone who really knows would be making loads of money rather than posting on here. 

I'd just say diversify as much as possible. Someone like @Frank Hovisprobably has a sensible outlook on how to do this. Not as interesting maybe as some 'go balls deep into crypto' type threads but the sort of good reasoned advice you expect from an accountant. 

 

I'm really just doing a variation on Warren Buffet's advice to his wife but tweaked through being in the UK and with some side investments:

Buffett described how he has advised trustees to manage the money he will leave to his wife: “Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.

 

My primary reason for this strategy is long term charts like this; note that the y axis is logarithmic.

4e5be75669beddce11000031?width=600&forma

 

I also go for tax free wrappers / investments: ISA, SIPP, VCT, Premium Bonds, gold UK legal tender.

A big gain becomes a much smaller one if you're going to be heavily taxed on it; or have to evade tax with the risk of being caught.

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Bobthebuilder
8 minutes ago, spongeh said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58317263

Smoking surge in young during Covid lockdown
The number of 18 to 34-year-olds who classed themselves as smokers increased by a quarter, from 21.5% to 26.8%, says Cancer Research UK.

Ok I have BAT shares and I'm enjoying the dividend, but it's still a bit of an evil investment. At least I can justify my BP & Shell shares, while they're semi evil they will/are investing in green tech now.

 

 

I went with my niece to a gig in my old school a few years ago. Was showing her the area that we used to go in the early 80s to smoke fags during break time. She told me, yeah, they all still do that. Nothing changes really.

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leonardratso
2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I went with my niece to a gig in my old school a few years ago. Was showing her the area that we used to go in the early 80s to smoke fags during break time. She told me, yeah, they all still do that. Nothing changes really.

hopefully wasnt an american school.

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6 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I'm really just doing a variation on Warren Buffet's advice

His other advice is to invest in yourself.

I've done that by training and buying equipment i rent out with myself, thus about 4 weeks work will cover any losses to inflation since March 2020, so it can be written off without any major worries.

If a crash happens, then i'll hit the jackpot ... if it doesnt then i'm down about £20,000!

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Green Devil
42 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I think i know that the FED will stop printing money and raise interest rates.

And ZIRP/QE are the reason why the stock market has been on an epic bull run.

I think it'll be a taper tantrum on steroids, so i'll take the gamble.

This bloke makes sense at 20:54.

 

Lol.

Ask the question to yourself.

If you had a personal money printer to yourself, and you could either use it and print money to spend OR stop using it for "the good of the economy", what would you do? Ok enough said. Money printing has been here since the first civilisations and wont change ever change.

As for those gold goons, if youd kept your money in gold youd be way behind the pack than anyone who put it in either housing, stocks or crypto. 

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Joncrete Cungle

Sold a lot of riskier stuff and took the profits in Oct, Nov & Dec. Bought sovereigns and gold in bullionvault and a little bit of silver. Have some left in a Vanguard tracker, bought 2 cheap motorbikes that are now "classics" and a load of fishing stuff from a fishing tackle shop that had gone bust.

Been selling the fishing stuff online as a lot of tackle shops are out of stock of many items and demand is high. The bikes will be cleaned up, serviced MOT and sold in March / April, fingers crossed for a couple of dry warm weeks.

Plan is to raise a lump of cash from above plus liquid metals in bullionvault. Expecting BK and add a bunch of dividend Kings to ISA and as yet undecided what to do with the rest. Also stocked up the pantry and store cupboards with dried / tinned / non perishable, cleaning & hygiene stuff same as 2007/08.

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Spiney Norman
29 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Buffett described how he has advised trustees to manage the money he will leave to his wife: “Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.

I've read the above many times and thik it is generally good advice, but I've also read that you should invest in what you know. I'm an a Engineer by profession the one thing I do know about is energy. Since the invention of the steam engine energy requirments have grown on average 3% per year. We constantly require more and more of the stuff and I think the cost constantly rise.

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4 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Lol.

Ask the question to yourself.

If you had a personal money printer to yourself, and you could either use it and print money to spend OR stop using it for "the good of the economy", what would you do? Ok enough said. Money printing has been here since the first civilisations and wont change ever change.

As for those gold goons, if youd kept your money in gold youd be way behind the pack than anyone who put it in either housing, stocks or crypto. 

Anyone who starts a reply with LOL is either a little girl or a .......

 

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Spiney Norman
5 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Expecting BK

Why do you expect this?

I think a BK is probable, but i'm looking for reasons to reinforce my Belief.

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SillyBilly

I honestly no longer worry about it, I put regular money into what I think are reputable, good companies (or funds) and leave it at that. My conclusion is nobody has a fucking clue so just drip it in over your lifetime on a monthly basis.

FWIW on the Big Kahuna I welcome it immaterial of when I make investments or what I have investments in. The system is so fucked I actually stand to benefit (being in my 30s) from a total collapse and everything (including my own assets) being wiped to zero. So bring it on.

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