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January 2022... Halifax house prices up yet again MoM 1.1%


haroldshand
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Spiney Norman
42 minutes ago, Hancock said:

When housing becomes cheaper (which it will) then people will move out.

Why do you think housing will become cheaper?

I hope it does but, i'm  not sure and would be really interested in why you think it will.

Spiney.

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Wight Flight
55 minutes ago, Hancock said:

We've just had the cycle where people stay at home due to unaffordable housing.

When housing becomes cheaper (which it will) then people will move out.

That is the certainty.

 

How many million aged 21-35 do you estimate are currently living with their parents waiting for that moment?

That is one hell of a lot of pent up demand.

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56 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

How many million aged 21-35 do you estimate are currently living with their parents waiting for that moment?

That is one hell of a lot of pent up demand.

Lots, and i agree there is epic amounts of pent up demand to live on ones own, or with a partner.

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Joncrete Cungle
57 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

How many million aged 21-35 do you estimate are currently living with their parents waiting for that moment?

That is one hell of a lot of pent up demand.

Depends if that pent up demand has a good credit score, decent deposit saved up, good PAYE income, spends a lot less than comes in and can meet salary multiples for the property.

I have a lot of pent up demand for a filthy weekend with Mila Kunis & Jessica Ennis......

 

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1 hour ago, Spiney Norman said:

Why do you think housing will become cheaper?

Because houses are ludicrously expensive, and you can't have a functioning economy where peoples wages can't afford them a house.

Boris is looking for money to hand out to pensioners, yet the Tory preference is to spend £30 billion on housing benefit which only makes houses unaffordable, which means more people rely on housing benefit. Now i do realise much of this £30 bln is a hand out to the landlord class which he is part of, but its unsustainable.

I believe Germany spends £5bln on their equivalent of housing benefit ... or they did up until they decided to invite the Muslim world to come and stay.

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Wight Flight
4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Lots, and i agree there is epic amounts of pent up demand to live on ones own, or with a partner.

That is the elephant in the room that I fear.

People think that if/when landlords are forced to sell their tenants will buy the properties. They won't, as the tenants don't have the cash reserves to do so. 

The homes will be bought by the current cohort living at home and saving well.

People currently renting are in a very, very bad place, but very few realise it yet.

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1 minute ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Depends if that pent up demand has a good credit score, decent deposit saved up, good PAYE income, spends a lot less than comes in and can meet salary multiples for the property.

Oh not that old chestnut that the young are all feckless and spend money on shite, whereas previous generations who were all holier than thou, worked harder than anyone ever, stopped eating to save money and then bought a house.

In the early 70s my parents borrowed their deposit to buy their first house ... i believe they saved for a few months aswell!

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5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

That is the elephant in the room that I fear.

People think that if/when landlords are forced to sell their tenants will buy the properties. They won't, as the tenants don't have the cash reserves to do so. 

The homes will be bought by the current cohort living at home and saving well.

People currently renting are in a very, very bad place, but very few realise it yet.

Prices crash, the deposits banks required will shrink.

But i agree many renters are fucked ... and will require housing benefit when they can no longer work ... and they'll have no house to sell to pay for old age care. 

All thanks to Labour not allowing house prices to become affordable in 2008, and then the Tories using other peoples money to do the same from 2010 to 20##. The cunts ought to be hanged for treason.

 

Edited by Hancock
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Wight Flight
3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

In the early 70s my parents borrowed their deposit to buy their first house ... i believe they saved for a few months aswell

Yep. They would have been absolutely skint, and living on begged furniture and spam sandwiches.

For a year. With wage inflation at 25% the trick was to borrow as much as possible because two years later you were in clover.

 

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1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

Yep. They would have been absolutely skint, and living on begged furniture and spam sandwiches.

For a year. With wage inflation at 25% the trick was to borrow as much as possible because two years later you were in clover.

 

Good point.

My parents are financially retarded shopaholics (just like most that credit card generation), so i'd imagine they've have spent money they didn't have on furniture.

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Bobthebuilder
8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Oh not that old chestnut that the young are all feckless and spend money on shite, whereas previous generations who were all holier than thou, worked harder than anyone ever, stopped eating to save money and then bought a house.

In the early 70s my parents borrowed their deposit to buy their first house ... i believe they saved for a few months aswell!

Not what he means I think. Banks lending max 4.5 times salary after debt obligations+25% deposit, is not enough to buy anything in most areas.

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Wight Flight
6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Good point.

My parents are financially retarded shopaholics (just like most that credit card generation), so i'd imagine they've have spent money they didn't have on furniture.

Credit cards weren't really popular in the UK until the mid 70s.

Store credit was more popular I believe (as was radio rentals)

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sleepwello'nights
On 07/01/2022 at 13:29, Frank Hovis said:

 

I've mentioned that I know an elderly couple whose house, given the current lunacy in coastal Cornwall, is worth about £800k.

It was his parents' house and he has lived in it for over sixty years.

They are both on AFAIK state pension only, they had low paid retail jobs their whole lives, and after paying the council tax and utilities are basically skint.

 

The state pension is £137.60 per week, just under £15k a year. If the wife only paid the reduced N. Ins rate then she would receive a minimum of approx £4k a year. 

At a minimum they would receive approx £1k per month. Council tax would be £200 per month leaving £800 for utilities and food.

We spend less than that a month on our essential living costs. 

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Wight Flight
3 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The state pension is £137.60 per week, just under £15k a year. If the wife only paid the reduced N. Ins rate then she would receive a minimum of approx £4k a year. 

At a minimum they would receive approx £1k per month. Council tax would be £200 per month leaving £800 for utilities and food.

We spend less than that a month on our essential living costs. 

How does £137 per week become £15k per year?

And on an £800k pad, council tax will be much higher.

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Frank Hovis
13 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

The state pension is £137.60 per week, just under £15k a year. If the wife only paid the reduced N. Ins rate then she would receive a minimum of approx £4k a year. 

At a minimum they would receive approx £1k per month. Council tax would be £200 per month leaving £800 for utilities and food.

We spend less than that a month on our essential living costs. 

 

Hmm..

I would guess they're on Band H which is going to be  £340 a month.

 

Band H - £4,083.90

  • Cornwall Council: £3,334.52
  • Devon and Cornwall Police: £473.12
  • Parish and Town Council: £276.26

https://www.cornwall.gov.uk/council-tax/your-council-tax-bill/council-tax-2021/council-tax-bands-2021/

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Spiney Norman
44 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Because houses are ludicrously expensive, and you can't have a functioning economy where peoples wages can't afford them a house.

That's exactly what we have had for the last 20 years and the wheels havent fallen of yet.

The only way I see housing becoming cheaper is through significant intrest rate rises, which as a saver I'd welcome. I can't see the Bank of England doing this as the results would be a disaster. What I can see happening is high inflation and low interest rates making me poorer by the day.

Spiney.

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Axeman123

I would suggest another dimension to the "cost of housing". The cost of running it.

We in the UK have lived for decades in an environment of housing being increasingly cheap to run - Energy so cheap it had to be artificially inflated with green levies etc/furniture and appliances going from expensive to disposable - combined with the capital cost of buying housing going stratospheric to absorb the surplus. The baby boomers of course got the best possible double dip, cheap houses years ago and then increasingly cheap running costs to stay in them ever since.

If, as per thread themes, the running cost of housing is going up a lot over the cycle then what impacts might that have? Large detached houses may well only be affordable to heat with multiple generations, and certainly will be beyond all but the wealthiest pensioners' budget to run. The current perversity of above average earning men unable to buy a flat, while a lone pensioner can happily afford to heat a 4 bedder they bought years ago is unlikely to persist. Another way to put this will be that we have seen a long cycle that favoured capital over income in housing, perhaps that now reverses.

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Spiney Norman
Just now, Axeman123 said:

If, as per thread themes, the running cost of housing is going up a lot over the cycle then what impacts might that have? Large detached houses may well only be affordable to heat with multiple generations, and certainly will be beyond all but the wealthiest pensioners' budget to run.

That Mr Axeman is a very good point!

Something I had not considerd.

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sleepwello'nights
50 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

How does £137 per week become £15k per year?

And on an £800k pad, council tax will be much higher.

£137.6 x 52 x 2 = £14310.40. + £200 fuel allowance + £40 Christmas benefit, rounded up'

If their only income is state pension then they will be eligible for council tax support of around £70 per week. Depending where they live the lowest council tax in Cornwall for Band H is £3619.  

Link for a guess at their CT support  https://www.quickcalc.co.uk/cornwall/pc/index.htm?7272#home

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Wight Flight
7 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

£137.6 x 52 x 2 = £14310.40. + £200 fuel allowance + £40 Christmas benefit, rounded up'

If their only income is state pension then they will be eligible for council tax support of around £70 per week. Depending where they live the lowest council tax in Cornwall for Band H is £3619.  

Explains why this country is fucked.

Almost millionaires getting benefits paid for by those that own nothing.

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sleepwello'nights
1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

Explains why this country is fucked.

Almost millionaires getting benefits paid for by those that own nothing.

Not forgetting they could, like @King Pendadoes and take in a lodger or two using the rent-a-room scheme not to mention growing chickens or other live stock and breeding vegetables in their presumably large garden.

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1 minute ago, Spiney Norman said:

That's exactly what we have had for the last 20 years and the wheels havent fallen of yet.

 

They've just shut society down for 2 years (and it may go on indefinitely in some form) ...due to them printing money to keep the debt/housing alive.

Thats a level of the wheels fallen off i never could have imagined.

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Wight Flight
Just now, sleepwello'nights said:

Not forgetting they could, like @King Pendadoes and take in a lodger or two using the rent-a-room scheme not to mention growing chickens or other live stock and breeding vegetables in their presumably large garden.

That's all fine.

Just don't give them benefits and preferential inheritance tax rates.

If they can't afford their council tax bill, roll it up and put a charge on their estate.

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33 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

That's exactly what we have had for the last 20 years and the wheels havent fallen of yet.

The only way I see housing becoming cheaper is through significant intrest rate rises, which as a saver I'd welcome. I can't see the Bank of England doing this as the results would be a disaster. What I can see happening is high inflation and low interest rates making me poorer by the day.

Spiney.

ZIRP when inflation is allegedly 2%, is better for savers than interest rates being at 3% when inflation is running at 6%.

I really can't comprehend this mindset that interest rates rising a significant amount would be a disaster, such a claim is complete and utter bollocks ... unless of course the current communist/socialists experiment is your preference.

What is a disaster is ZIRP.

 

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Spiney Norman
1 minute ago, Hancock said:

They've just shut society down for 2 years (and it may go on indefinitely in some form) ...due to them printing money to keep the debt/housing alive.

Yep, and houses rose in price faster than ever.

I just can't see it changing, I can't even see what will be a catalyst for change apart from interest rate rises which they will not do.

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