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Classic car price crash - maybe this time it’s different..?


Sugarlips

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Isn't it just the natural way people desire cars they grew up with so inflate the prices of the old junk through nostalgia when they have earned enough money to spend on dreams?

Cars that were merely decent back in the day now seen as future or modern classics due to the continual demise of proper cars in favour of electrical overlords that are as likely to give you grief at the garage as joy on the road.

How will the current cars stand up to getting to 50 years old and beyond? Will the electronics and plastic engine bay stuff be servicable, replaceable and restorable as easily as the current classics or will we see a reverse of engine swaps from the overcomplicated new to the simpler old when classic status means emmissions aren't as important? xD

Which cars currently reasonably cheap will stand the test of time so may be worth buying now before they get so rare they are garage queens, enjoy driving them while one can and parts are available to keep them on the road...

As I get ever increasingly tired of modern car unreliability and cost of repair I do wonder if it may be the right time to go and spend money instead on a good condition Pugeot 306 or Focus ST170, or something over 10 years old, where they're still new enough to be a good reliable daily driver yet old enough to not be too overburdened by all the modern rules making them heavy, underpowered or gas guzzlers, and full of tech I rarely use anyway, I don't even use the radio as I prefer the piece and quiet and sound of a decent engine. B|

I expect as ICE draws to an end the government will force them off the road by gradually increasing the road tax as they are now, so even currently cheap to run cars will become too expensive for most folk. Then there will be a gradual change from E5 to E10 and beyond fuel that will trash older cars forcing obsolescence. :(

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It's about time as these cars were defying gravity; they're classics but that doesn't make them priceless.

According to Hagerty, a classic car insurer, the average price of an E-Type S1 3.8 coupé has dropped from £89,575 to £72,250 in the past two years. For that other coveted classic, the Aston Martin DB6, the slide has been even steeper: down from £344,000 to £190,500.

 

It's probably also driven by people's age, from the 90s on it was the 60s classics that were climbing, the cars of the youth of rich working people, but anything 1950s or earlier was pretty much ignored by the commercial market and confined to museums.

Peak earning and spending is usually people in their fifties and sixties.

I'm mid fifties and the first car I remember seeing in the metal that made me go "wow" was the Triumph TR7 in the late 70s.  For me the E Type and DB6 are museum pieces.

 

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I have two 1990s "classics" which I bought to drive, not as investments.

Both have risen in value, one to a ridiculous amount. The downside is that parts prices have risen proportionally so it's a worry if anything happens. I'm hoping for a crash in prices so I can get back to just driving them.

Having said all that my total costs for the last 5 years has been under 10k (2k/year) including tax, insurance etc.

The only thing not included in that figure is petrol.

 

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2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Half price E Type anyone? Aston’s have fallen hard as well according to this: 

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/used-cars/classic-car-prices-dip-collectors-flock-1990s-icons

Maybe the Covidiots have all been sent blind and handed their licenses back..

Whatever you do, do not show this to the bitcoin thread....

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belfastchild
3 hours ago, A_P said:

Whatever you do, do not show this to the bitcoin thread....

Saw a mint mk1 fiesta supersport the other day on ebay for the price of 1 bitcoin. I think they have dropped as well as they were going for the price of a bitcoin last summer too.
Maybe thats it? Bitcoin is the mint mk1 fiesta or half decent ford escort mk2?

Its like my house is exactly the same price as the average house price in Northern Ireland, every single time..

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2 hours ago, Royston said:

The traditional "classics" might be cooling a little but the "modern classics" are as batshit mental as ever.

These 3 cars were worth no more than £10k only 3 or 4 years ago...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/225028940228

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/185315186618

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/284813044806

 

Fuck

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6 hours ago, Royston said:

These 3 cars were worth no more than £10k only 3 or 4 years ago...

i had a brand new STI from the factory in Japan...batshit mental it was......just ask the copper who chased me on his motorbike xD

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Pre-covid I had my eye on a used Aston Martin V8 Vantage, they were losing £1k a week pretty much from new.

Then Covid hit and they all went up by £10k minimum. Most by £20k.

The problem is, even if prices come down, I don't have any interest in buying one now, even though I am fortunate enough to be able to afford a (used) one, because petrol prices would render it moot. Plus throw in £300 for a new tyre etc, and £700 a year VED, and so on. What's the point?

Edited by spunko
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6 minutes ago, spunko said:

Pre-covid I had my eye on a used Aston Martin V8 Vantage, they were losing £1k a week pretty much from new.

Then Covid hit and they all went up by £10k minimum. Most by £20k.

The problem is, even if prices come down, I don't have any interest in buying one now, even though I am fortunate enough to be able to afford a (used) one, because petrol prices would render it moot. Plus throw in £300 for a new tyre etc, and £700 a year VED, and so on. What's the point?

It's like having a high maintenance good looking trophy bird you know is only after your money. Plenty do it, to massage their ego amongst other things. xD

Unless getting some cheap scrapper to use until move onto the next one (car or bird xD) they all cost loads one way or another.

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1 hour ago, spunko said:

Pre-covid I had my eye on a used Aston Martin V8 Vantage, they were losing £1k a week pretty much from new.

Then Covid hit and they all went up by £10k minimum. Most by £20k.

The problem is, even if prices come down, I don't have any interest in buying one now, even though I am fortunate enough to be able to afford a (used) one, because petrol prices would render it moot. Plus throw in £300 for a new tyre etc, and £700 a year VED, and so on. What's the point?

This is an interesting point and mindset. Surely if one can afford such a vehicle then the cost of a £300 tyre or the fuel is really quite immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Twice or thrice as much on running costs versus an average car is really chump change if the income correlates.

We see this quite often see in our day2day business. People hate spending money on it. At the end it is always the same "wish I had done this sooner", "best money I've spent" etc etc.

I know I'd rather have a £3000 annual petrol bill versus £1200 and have the smiles :D

12 hours ago, Royston said:

The traditional "classics" might be cooling a little but the "modern classics" are as batshit mental as ever.

These 3 cars were worth no more than £10k only 3 or 4 years ago...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/225028940228

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/185315186618

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/284813044806

 

That is mental. Any recent auction results?

Which current cars are going to be the next generations go to. Nothing coming to me from the top of my head, which isn't already out of reach.

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17 minutes ago, A_P said:

This is an interesting point and mindset. Surely if one can afford such a vehicle then the cost of a £300 tyre or the fuel is really quite immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Twice or thrice as much on running costs versus an average car is really chump change if the income correlates.

I had the loan of a Maserati Ghibli a few years ago. Gun metal grey type, cream interior, lovely car and a hell of a nice noise driving it up the coast road.

Had a look and you could get used ones for about 25k (less than 20k now).

I was always reminded of the quote, dont buy a cheap supercar unless you can afford new supercar servicing, parts, tyres, insurance etc etc.

Just checked and theres a private one in Carrick, 20k, 2015 45k miles... ...that or a 2 year old berlingo...

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31 minutes ago, A_P said:

This is an interesting point and mindset. Surely if one can afford such a vehicle then the cost of a £300 tyre or the fuel is really quite immaterial in the grand scheme of things. Twice or thrice as much on running costs versus an average car is really chump change if the income correlates.

We see this quite often see in our day2day business. People hate spending money on it. At the end it is always the same "wish I had done this sooner", "best money I've spent" etc etc.

I know I'd rather have a £3000 annual petrol bill versus £1200 and have the smiles :D

That is mental. Any recent auction results?

Which current cars are going to be the next generations go to. Nothing coming to me from the top of my head, which isn't already out of reach.

The problem is I already have a fairly nice car which costs a fortune to maintain, so getting a second car is out of the question with pricing the way it is. My mindset is that it doesn't make sense to buy a flashy car when petrol prices are £2 a litre when only 6 months ago they were £1 a litre and presumably in another 6 months might be £1 a litre again (possibly). It makes sense to hold off any purchases if the running costs are likely (IMO) to fall.

Plus throw in the recession looming, now written in and quite severe, prices of used guzzler cars are going to crash.

Again all IMO.

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13 hours ago, Royston said:

The traditional "classics" might be cooling a little but the "modern classics" are as batshit mental as ever.

These 3 cars were worth no more than £10k only 3 or 4 years ago...

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/225028940228

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/185315186618

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/284813044806

 

The good thing about the internet is that we will all be able to see the mental asking prices and look back in a few years and think "WTF". £75k for an Impreza, madness.

All of these asking prices are based on future speculation and appreciation and they are not even being drivenm i.e. the mindset is if I just hold on a bit longer the price will keep going up. This is the same mentality that is always very pervasive before a crash.

I won't lie, I'm looking forward to greedy speculators losing their shirts. Get a job! :D

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2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I had the loan of a Maserati Ghibli a few years ago. Gun metal grey type, cream interior, lovely car and a hell of a nice noise driving it up the coast road.

Had a look and you could get used ones for about 25k (less than 20k now).

I was always reminded of the quote, dont buy a cheap supercar unless you can afford new supercar servicing, parts, tyres, insurance etc etc.

Just checked and theres a private one in Carrick, 20k, 2015 45k miles... ...that or a 2 year old berlingo...

A lot of those expensive parts as well can be obtained cheaply if DIYing, however there goes some savings when you go to sell if you haven't had it serviced at the dealership. Catch22.

Even if you have the money, if you prefer to spend £50 on a budget city car tyre then best do that.

1 minute ago, spunko said:

The problem is I already have a fairly nice car which costs a fortune to maintain, so getting a second car is out of the question with pricing the way it is. My mindset is that it doesn't make sense to buy a flashy car when petrol prices are £2 a litre when only 6 months ago they were £1 a litre and presumably in another 6 months might be £1 a litre again (possibly). It makes sense to hold off any purchases if the running costs are likely (IMO) to fall.

£1 was only during the first lockdown iirc. The average before would have been around £1.35? I certainly wouldn't bet on the direction of prices. who the hell knows where they are going to end up. To me there is really very little between £1.35 and £2 in the grand scheme of things for average driving.

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1 minute ago, A_P said:

A lot of those expensive parts as well can be obtained cheaply if DIYing, however there goes some savings when you go to sell if you haven't had it serviced at the dealership. Catch22.

Even if you have the money, if you prefer to spend £50 on a budget city car tyre then best do that.

£1 was only during the first lockdown iirc. The average before would have been around £1.35? I certainly wouldn't bet on the direction of prices. who the hell knows where they are going to end up. To me there is really very little between £1.35 and £2 in the grand scheme of things for average driving.

The threat of £3 a litre would put anyone but a sheikh off buying a sporty car surely.

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Snake Plissken
17 minutes ago, spunko said:

The threat of £3 a litre would put anyone but a sheikh off buying a sporty car surely.

if it gets to £3+ you'll see signs 'no petrol left in this car overnight'

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1 hour ago, A_P said:

 

That is mental. Any recent auction results?

Which current cars are going to be the next generations go to. Nothing coming to me from the top of my head, which isn't already out of reach.

To be fair those 3 examples are slightly kite flying asking prices but not massively , I bet if any of those got reduced by just 10pc they'd get snapped up instantly by one of the speculators who @spunko  speaks so fondly of.:D

I agree, most current performance cars are homogenous, generic and boring to drive, far too powerful and too capable to fully utilize even half of their performance capabilities on the public roads.

What's deemed a desirable classic has always been a generational thing with demand and prices peaking and then falling away with each passing generation... and the desire for 80's/90's cars which are so in vogue right now just happens to have coincided with biggest cheap money fuelled speculative asset price bubble the world has ever seen.

Edited by Royston
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32 minutes ago, spunko said:

The threat of £3 a litre would put anyone but a sheikh off buying a sporty car surely.

I think you are wrong. It is the brick shaped poshed up off-roaders which will become unpopular.

I've just been to ASDA, and my Lexus was the lowest thing in the car park.

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29 minutes ago, spunko said:

The threat of £3 a litre would put anyone but a sheikh off buying a sporty car surely.

The threat along with many others appears to be a hanging over our heads constantly at the moment for what appears to be an eternity.

£3 a litre sounds a lot today, however, it may not be in a year or two. If it is £3 a litre, what is everything else? There are only so many ways a £1 can be split. Still, what is that, £165 a tank of fuel? Might sound a lot right now, however if you can afford £150k car, its probably chicken feed.

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2 minutes ago, A_P said:

The threat along with many others appears to be a hanging over our heads constantly at the moment for what appears to be an eternity.

£3 a litre sounds a lot today, however, it may not be in a year or two. If it is £3 a litre, what is everything else? There are only so many ways a £1 can be split. Still, what is that, £165 a tank of fuel? Might sound a lot right now, however if you can afford £150k car, its probably chicken feed.

In the early 80s I remember £2/gallon seemed significant.

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30 minutes ago, MrPin said:

In the early 80s I remember £2/gallon seemed significant.

No doubt. When do things ever not seem significant. Is it because they are or we are told that they are. If you're paycheck to paycheck it will always be tough. Fuel went cheap for a while and rather than saving the extra money to smooth out the costs, it was mostly blown on junk. If we take our personal fuel costs over say, a five or ten year period, how do they fair?

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