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2022 its bigger than 1932


Chewing Grass

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58 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just getting it in.

2019 was also 1929, but they hid it with the greatest distraction of all time.

It's hardly got going yet.

Edited by Harley
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59 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just getting it in.

2019 was also 1929, but they hid it with the greatest distraction of all time.

We can make a rap lyric from this.

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Chewing Grass
1 minute ago, JFK said:

 

 

 

Yup, it's all a load of shit isn't it.  Bang on the above comments.  Asset bubble speculation, money printing, the wonderful "financial sector" to provide "trickle down" economics.  e.g. money printing, inflation, devaluation, import loads of 3rd world dross to pay them subpar wages, provide more share price inflation, mickey mouse economics, welfare payments for the now-unemployed indigenous population.  Worsening infrastructure due to not being replaced and under pressure from the aforementioned massive population import.  Private debt piled onto the public sector borrowing sheet. 

It really is a fucking disaster - unless you're part of the financial oligarchs, the fund managers, the various supra-national 'think tanks' and 'foundations', the vanguards and black rocks of the world the globalist banks, the BISS - they've all made out like bandits whilst we've been left holding the turd sandwhich and told to not ask for pay rises peasants cos that might make the situation worse, somehow.

Thankyou @JFK I don't think you could have summed it up better for me.

Everyone should read this book if you haven't already.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=galbraith+great+crash&_sacat=0&_sop=15

Prospects for recurrence

Galbraith was of the opinion that the Great Crash had burned itself so deeply into the national consciousness that America had been spared another bubble up to the present time (1954).; however he thought the chances of another speculative orgy which characterized the 1929 crash as rather good as he felt the American people remained susceptible to the conviction that unlimited rewards were to be had and that they individually were meant to share in it. He considered the sense of responsibility in the financial community for the wider community as a whole as not being small but "nearly nil". Even though government powers were available to prevent a recurrence of a bubble their use was not attractive or politically expedient since an election is in the offing even on the day after an election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929

It should be noted as underlined that the quote is dated and would have been valid 50 years ago but corporate lobbyists have been icing their cake since then.

IIRC the 1929 one was a double dip with 1932 being when the depression really kicked in.

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Balding Badger

Galbraith's The Great Crash is a brilliant book. I first read it in the aftermath of 2008 and re-read it almost every year since. Some of his phrases are priceless as he describes the mania that led to October 1929. It helps keep me sane to know that no matter how many people believe otherwise and tell you that 'this time it is different', or how many brand new financial schemes are dreamt up to keep the show on the road, in the end all manias end. He was very clear that they should be avoided if at all possible, although given human behaviour I don't think he was optimistic. I feel that he would have understood our recent era very well and when his warnings were ignored he would probably have allowed himself a wry but knowing smile.

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honkydonkey
10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Thankyou @JFK I don't think you could have summed it up better for me.

Everyone should read this book if you haven't already.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=galbraith+great+crash&_sacat=0&_sop=15

Prospects for recurrence

Galbraith was of the opinion that the Great Crash had burned itself so deeply into the national consciousness that America had been spared another bubble up to the present time (1954).; however he thought the chances of another speculative orgy which characterized the 1929 crash as rather good as he felt the American people remained susceptible to the conviction that unlimited rewards were to be had and that they individually were meant to share in it. He considered the sense of responsibility in the financial community for the wider community as a whole as not being small but "nearly nil". Even though government powers were available to prevent a recurrence of a bubble their use was not attractive or politically expedient since an election is in the offing even on the day after an election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929

It should be noted as underlined that the quote is dated and would have been valid 50 years ago but corporate lobbyists have been icing their cake since then.

IIRC the 1929 one was a double dip with 1932 being when the depression really kicked in.

Free pdf. 

https://archive.org/download/greatcrash19290000unse/greatcrash19290000unse.pdf

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Chewing Grass

From Wikipedia summary, first two points definitely covered out of the 5, and the last one about economists is probably to as they are blinkered cunts who can't think for themselves.

The influence of the Wall Street crash on the Great Depression

Contrary to what had been Wall Street's perceived tendency in playing down its influence, Galbraith asserted the important contribution of the 1929 crash on the Great Depression which followed:[15] causing a contraction of demand for goods, destroying for a time the normal means of investment and lending, arresting economic growth and causing financial hardship which alienated many from the economic system. [2] Galbraith further argues that the Great Depression was caused by a mixture of five main weaknesses:

First, an imbalance in the income distribution. Galbraith asserts that "the 5 per cent of the population with the highest incomes in that year [1929] received approximately one third of all personal income." Personal income in the form of rents, dividends, and interest of the well-to-do was approximately twice as much as in the period following the Second World War, leaving the economy dependent on a high level of investment and luxury consumer spending, and vulnerable to the stock market crash.

Second, problems in the structure of corporations. Most specifically, he cites newly formed investment entities of the era (such as holding companies and investment trusts) as contributing to a deflationary spiral, due in no small part to their high reliance on leverage. Dividends paid the interest on the bonds in the holding companies, and when these were interrupted, the structure collapsed. w“It would be hard to imagine a corporate system better designed to continue and accentuate a deflationary cycle." Also, "The fact was that American enterprise in the twenties had opened its hospitable arms to an exceptional number of promoters, grafters, swindlers, impostors, and frauds. This, in the long history of such activities, was a kind of flood tide of corporate larceny."

Third, the bad banking structure. The weakness was manifest in the large number of units working independently. As one failed, pressure was applied to another, leading to a domino effect accelerated by increasing unemployment and lower incomes.[17]

Fourth, foreign trade imbalances. During World War I, the US became a creditor nation, exporting more than it imported. High tariffs on imports contributed to this imbalance. Subsequent defaults by foreign governments led to a decline in exports, which was especially hard on farmers.

And finally, "the poor state of economic intelligence." Galbraith says that the "economists and those who offered economic counsel in the late twenties and early thirties were almost uniquely perverse" and that "the burden of reputable economic advice was invariably on the side of measures that would make things worse."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929

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PatronizingGit

Are people more culpable this time?

I get the feeling politicians werent the kind of 'masters of the universe' back in 1929 as they are today. People still had gold, veg patches, and far less resources to spare that the politicians could cream off & use to further their own power.

 

This time, it seems at least since 1997, and possibly since 1979, people have been voting for the eventual death of the west and their way of life. 

 

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Long time lurking
On 04/08/2022 at 22:05, Chewing Grass said:

Just getting it in.

2019 was also 1929, but they hid it with the greatest distraction of all time.

Time to buy flared jeans ?

1971 =2019  1971 was when Bretton Woods ended 

1973 was the beginning of the Suez crisis =war and an energy crisis = huge inflation during the 70`s 

Tories now wishing they never destroyed the unions xD

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Chewing Grass

Just to add, the big shit was three years later in 1932 so if the 'signal' was September to December 2019 (the US interbank thing and the Chinese falling over in the street) and we are now three years later.

So now we have done Keynes its time for the next shit show.

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13 hours ago, 23rdian said:

Could be correct. It certainly feels like the money printing has made things a lot worse than if they had just bitten the bullet back in 2008.

The rare of increase of the money supply should match productivity growth.  Anything else is going to cause major problems later.  Even Keynes warned about the long term.  Btw, the UK has a "productivity puzzle" (for the disingenuous or hard of thinking) but can print money just fine.

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Chewing Grass
On 02/11/2022 at 20:11, Chewing Grass said:

On the Engineering side our fabricator can't get stainless steel pipe, the pipe they have ordered is that badly drawn it does not meet specification, is internally scored, pitted and has rust marks on it where it has been in contact with carbon steel tooling so has been sent back to the supplier.

Replacement steel can only be obtained from a mill run scheduled for June 2023.

If they can't get material they will have to start laying off.

Remember this, well they can't get replacement pipe now, well I say can't but they spent that much time arguing in meetings about the cost and schedule that they missed the opportunity 2 months ago to place an order on 6 month delivery all because they would be late delivering by 3 months. Now they are going to try and polish the defects out without thinning the wall thickness to much. Everyone other than management thinks that all they will do is find more flaws as they remove metal but the man with the spreadsheet is the boss.

Word on the street is that the quality of premium metals has tanked in the last 12 months and sub-standard materials are being quietly used everywhere as things are 'downgraded' to keep going.

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King Penda
On 04/08/2022 at 22:05, Chewing Grass said:

Just getting it in.

2019 was also 1929, but they hid it with the greatest distraction of all time.

Well the film on Netflix 1922 indicates it took awhile to get going it’s a horror film but it’s set before the big crash in it banks are offering daft large loans to farmers 

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PatronizingGit
On 20/11/2022 at 20:54, 23rdian said:

Could be correct. It certainly feels like the money printing has made things a lot worse than if they had just bitten the bullet back in 2008.

I do think this *should* be the case, but there is also a potential reality that if the govt didnt spunk hundreds of trillions on keeping shitty businesses afloat, the mass unemployment might drive emigration of productive sorts to a country that was spunking billions & you'd get a brain drain of sorts. 

 

This has always been the idiocy is libertarian types. They accuse communists of utopian thinking, yet  they themselves seem utterly in denial that the global economy is in no way free from intervention.. Basics like oil being highly dependant on the political whims of OPEC. Such is their zealotry towards libertarianism that when it comes to free trade they wont even stop imports from countries that hugely subsidize certain industries. We cut off subsidies to British car manufacturers when the French didnt. The french still have a car industry, we dont. 

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PatronizingGit
On 08/11/2022 at 13:53, Chewing Grass said:

^^^. the above stuff was made in India, quote back from the Inspector was Chinese stuff is actually much better.

As I understand it the chinese are perfectly capable of quality products, but we want the cheap stuff. 

People blame the chinese but supposedly walmart or similar will say they want X lawnmower or something built to be sold a a certain price, and there is ultimately a quality trade off. 

 

India I dont know. A lot of IQ variance in the population compared to china. 

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