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gibbon

Credit card borrowing jumps 8%

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http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-5016951/Credit-card-borrowing-keeps-rising-cost-life.html

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UK debt mountain keeps getting bigger: Credit card borrowing rises 8% in a year but lending to businesses slows

  • Credit card borrowing rose by 7.8% in September, up from 7.3% in August
  • Borrowing by businesses 'moderated' since beginning of the year 

 

So retail sales are plunging, consumers sticking more on the never never, business lending slowing down, most job growth has been low paid and half of which taken by immigrants, inflation creeping up, the PCP binge ready to blow and brexit round the corner...we're fucked aren't we?

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Slow motion car crash IMHO with the only way to get rid of these debt bubbles being a decade of high inflation to erode them away.

Expect ten years of inflation exceeding interest rates and invest accordingly (which doesn't mean knee jerk buy gold, equities usually exceed inflation plus they pay dividends).

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12 minutes ago, gibbon said:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-5016951/Credit-card-borrowing-keeps-rising-cost-life.html

So retail sales are plunging, consumers sticking more on the never never, business lending slowing down, most job growth has been low paid and half of which taken by immigrants, inflation creeping up, the PCP binge ready to blow and brexit round the corner...we're fucked aren't we?

No! Treason's going to just print more of it .

3 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Wouldn't surprise me if some retailers have a good Christmas based on a blow-out credit card binge by UK consumers. I will need to re-evaluate Currys and Boohoo share prices later on.

Currys are in perpetual decline. Even riskier than Bitcoin. 

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21 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

No! Treason's going to just print more of it .

Currys are in perpetual decline. Even riskier than Bitcoin. 

Yes, I agree. However, I am thinking of short-term bounce over Christmas. But, most likely, that bounce already came after their last poor results when the share price tanked.

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They had that big drop down to about £1.70 at the end of August on poor sales - think the intra-day went lower - and then it got bought back up. But has now dropped down and is hugging the bottom bollinger band.

The RSI is heading down but it looks like the slow stoch has begun to turn up slightly. It could be close to exhaustion on sellers and anticipation of the Santa rally.

Currys is a fine example of a company that should get it right but does not. It's website is really diifficult to navigate and a nightmare to find something if you are searching for a particular item. The reviews - which are a big thing today - are rubbish. Slow to load and then often disappointing as many of the reivews talk about the experience of dealing with Currys than whether a kettle or TV is any good. Some real basics that are wrong which, IMPO, just shows how out of touch the senior bosses are.

currys.png

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1 minute ago, GARCH said:

Mmmm.... reality is there are lots of great deals around in the consumer finance space if you have half a credit score.  Easy to take out, harder to pay back.

 

I didn't log into one of my bank accounts for 6 months and went to log in last week only to discover that they had cancelled my online access. I had a few un-opened letters from the bank - they looked like the usual ads - which turned out to be letters saying that they had cancelled 2 credit cards because I had not used them in a year. One credit card was with the bank and a second was a supermarket credit card but run by the same bank.

Anyhow, I got my internet access back and since then they have offered me new credit cards on better deals than the credit cards that they cancelled because I had not used them. Nuts.

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51 minutes ago, gibbon said:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-5016951/Credit-card-borrowing-keeps-rising-cost-life.html

So retail sales are plunging, consumers sticking more on the never never, business lending slowing down, most job growth has been low paid and half of which taken by immigrants, inflation creeping up, the PCP binge ready to blow and brexit round the corner...we're fucked aren't we?

I think so and I've been thinking it for ages.

Edited by ILikeCake

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Same Currys chart but with 10 and 18 day moving averages. Notice how the share price has followed the 10 day average - red line - before dropping below it and how, in recent weeks, it has tried a few times to get back above the red line but has failed each time.

A bit of stock-market panic dropping this down to low £1.60's or £1.50's would be a buying opportunity before the Santa Rally gets started IMPO. The drop in August intra-day went down to high £1.50's and that might be indicative of where it is going. But, seasonals. Best quarter of the year for Currys coming up.

 

currys2.png

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2 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

I think so but I've been thinking it for ages.

 

I've noticed on hotukdeals that there seems no shortage of people eager to buy laptops, expensive TV's, etc. Everyone I know in real life is off on hols this winter either to the sun or to go skiing. Loads of people changing cars also.

world-debt-2017.png

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1 hour ago, gibbon said:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-5016951/Credit-card-borrowing-keeps-rising-cost-life.html

So retail sales are plunging, consumers sticking more on the never never, business lending slowing down, most job growth has been low paid and half of which taken by immigrants, inflation creeping up, the PCP binge ready to blow and brexit round the corner...we're fucked aren't we?

Yep, our Weinstein moment is coming, when everybody claims complete surprise.

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51 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

No! Treason's going to just print more of it .

Currys are in perpetual decline. Even riskier than Bitcoin. 

Curry's typical customer are OAP's unable to use the internet, who they then rip off with their toilet paper warranties. As these people slowly die off so does their business. No way they can compete against internet only retailers with all that expensive property, staff and pensions. 

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2 minutes ago, gibbon said:

Curry's typical customer are OAP's unable to use the internet, who they then rip off with their toilet paper warranties. As these people slowly die off so does their business. No way they can compete against internet only retailers with all that expensive property, staff and pensions. 

 

Yep, I agree. Bricks & mortar retailers are really feeling thhe squeeze now here in the UK, in the US and elsewhere also.

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It may as well go here as it doesn't deserve its own thread but after all these years my credit card's limit has been reduced.  It climbed steadily back in the 90s from an initial £1k to £8k and has finally been dropped to £6k.

I never asked for any increases and usually write a big cheque once a year to put a balance on it so for eleven months of the year it's actually in credit.

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23 minutes ago, xyz said:

We needed a big reset in 2008 after the last big credit binge. If they'd allowed the housing and credit bubbles to burst, then we could have got the recession out of the way, had proper government cuts, had cheaper housing and given the younger generation a chance to have a decent life.

But no they decided to prop up the banks and house prices and we're heading for the same problem again in a few years. Maybe a bad Brexit + Corbyn could be the massive reset we need.

Agreed.  They should never have interfered, all they've done is make it worse in the long run.

 

48 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

I've noticed on hotukdeals that there seems no shortage of people eager to buy laptops, expensive TV's, etc. Everyone I know in real life is off on hols this winter either to the sun or to go skiing. Loads of people changing cars also.

world-debt-2017.png

People are idiots.

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37 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

It may as well go here as it doesn't deserve its own thread but after all these years my credit card's limit has been reduced.  It climbed steadily back in the 90s from an initial £1k to £8k and has finally been dropped to £6k.

I never asked for any increases and usually write a big cheque once a year to put a balance on it so for eleven months of the year it's actually in credit.

 

A friend told me yesterday that his credit card limits have been going down. I noticed that 2 of the 3 I had - before the above-mentioned post - had gone down.

I suspect it is a devious move by the banks though - if you don't use it you lose it so they kinda want to panic people in spending on the cards. The main card that I use almost monthly has kept the same limit for years and has not decreased. The ones I did not use went down.

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6 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Agreed.  They should never have interfered, all they've done is make it worse in the long run.

 

People are idiots.

They're probably right. Just get it all written off anyway, and compensation for the stress of being allowed to get into debt. 

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3 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

A friend told me yesterday that his credit card limits have been going down. I noticed that 2 of the 3 I had - before the above-mentioned post - had gone down.

I suspect it is a devious move by the banks though - if you don't use it you lose it so they kinda want to panic people in spending on the cards. The main card that I use almost monthly has kept the same limit for years and has not decreased. The ones I did not use went down.

Is it that credit card limit is seen by the regulators as money already loaned and therefore affects the bank's capital ratios?

Better to take the credit line off someone that isn't using it to give it to someone that will?

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1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

A friend told me yesterday that his credit card limits have been going down. I noticed that 2 of the 3 I had - before the above-mentioned post - had gone down.

I suspect it is a devious move by the banks though - if you don't use it you lose it so they kinda want to panic people in spending on the cards. The main card that I use almost monthly has kept the same limit for years and has not decreased. The ones I did not use went down.

I was thinking it was possibly related to the Basle 3 capital allocation rules where the increase in capital that they're required to allocate to particular types of debt means that they're casting around for unused (and therefore unprofitable) credit lines and reducing them.

I got a good insight into this the first time I renegotiated the company overdraft. It was an odd conversation as I thought I had to demonstrate that we were a good credit risk so would be unlikely to need it whereas they wanted to hear that I was going to use it or they'd be reducing it.

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13 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Agreed.  They should never have interfered, all they've done is make it worse in the long run.

 

People are idiots.

What worries me is that they are idiots who might get let off the hook in a worldwide jubilee.

The SJW mate i mentioned in the JFK thread, is a BTL landlord by accident. (I know the full set right...)9_9

He's renting the flat to the council, no repayment plans in place.

Hes got £450 in his bin every month, after the mortgage is paid off, from an outlay of £10k deposit in 2008.

As long as he stays married, and living elsewhere, he can hand this back/ sell the flat in 17 years having pocketed about 100k in rent over the piece. There's no way the flat will be worth less than he paid for it, even if we have a crash or two in the interim.

Can't think of a savings account or stocks that would do any better than that. maybe stocks would with reinvested divis etc.

Hes running 2 identical new cars, and has a new Mac of some description every time i see him.

Reckons he's a socialist.xD

Mental.

Edited by shindigger

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1 minute ago, Cunning Plan said:

Is it that credit card limit is seen by the regulators as money already loaned and therefore affects the bank's capital ratios?

Better to take the credit line off someone that isn't using it to give it to someone that will?

 

No idea. But that is an interesting thought.

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58 minutes ago, shindigger said:

What worries me is that they are idiots who might get let off the hook in a worldwide jubilee.

The SJW mate i mentioned in the JFK thread, is a BTL landlord by accident. (I know the full set right...)9_9

He's renting the flat to the council, no repayment plans in place.

Hes got £450 in his bin every month, after the mortgage is paid off, from an outlay of £10k deposit in 2008.

As long as he stays married, and living elsewhere, he can hand this back/ sell the flat in 17 years having pocketed about 100k in rent over the piece. There's no way the flat will be worth less than he paid for it, even if we have a crash or two in the interim.

Can't think of a savings account or stocks that would do any better than that. maybe stocks would with reinvested divis etc.

Hes running 2 identical new cars, and has a new Mac of some description every time i see him.

Reckons he's a socialist.xD

Mental.

Depending on his income and rent, he may find himself paying half the rent in tax.

If hes claiming tax credits hell hell the rental income stop them now.

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