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sarahbell

O M G ................

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At midday today (Thu) the Bank of England announced an increase in the base rate from its historic low of 0.25% to 0.5%. This is the first rise in over a decade and likely to signal the beginning of the end of ultra-low interest rate


Just noticed an email from martin lewis. 

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13 minutes ago, DeepLurker said:

Finally! All the old-timers over at TOS were right! Interest rates had to rise

+1

a stopped clock is right once a day!

Credit goes to Diane Abbottopotamus.

Edit: the gardener got in there first. We must be using the same bot algorithm. :D

Edited by longtomsilver

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Just now, the gardener said:

Well even a stopped clock is right once a day. 😉

And once a quarter is about right for an interest rate rise.  I think some frogs may start boiling :)

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6 minutes ago, sukuinage said:

And once a quarter is about right for an interest rate rise.  I think some frogs may start boiling :)

Once a decade more likely, sadly.

Edited by longtomsilver

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2 minutes ago, longtomsilver said:

Once a decade more likely sadly.

Think this is a toe in the water moment.  If there's not too much squealing I think they'll go for it again

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This is all about the central banks proving that 'forward guidance' works.  

The fact that it has proved by events to not to be believable over most of the last 10 years or so seems to have been cancelled out by this single action.

I'd imagine that we'll get another rise in the next 1/4 (just to seal the deal), and then that'll be it for ages.

[we'll have inflation, etc, but the banks will show that they're responsive in their forward guidance (ie, interest rate rises 'soon'), but not actually do anything.]

BTW, there is a strong suggestion that central banks are about to change from an 'inflation targeting' remit ,to a price-targeting remit.  Same thing?  Think again.  The theory is that we've had 10 years of inflation being usually below the target, so we can assume that we can wait until prices catch up.  So, target = 2% -- if a price was £100 10 years ago, and it is now £105, then we don't have to worry until it gets to more than the 2% inflation price (122 at 10 years and increasing every year), even if that allows annual inflation of 8% for a few years...

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38 minutes ago, the gardener said:

Well even a stopped clock is right once a day. 😉

To quote another of my mate's faux pas, I think by bringing that up you're showing a touch of "OCDC".

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6 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Everyone knows it should be CDO. 
 

I already had to avoid the wraith of Cunning Plan by googling the correct plural of fox pass.

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1 hour ago, longtomsilver said:

Once a decade more likely, sadly.

The guidance given by Carney is apparently a further .25% increase in 2018,  then nothing further until 2020.

I think they want to give the frogs as much time as possible to adjust to the new water temperature 

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1 hour ago, Libspero said:

The guidance given by Carney is apparently a further .25% increase in 2018,  then nothing further until 2020.

I think they want to give the frogs as much time as possible to adjust to the new water temperature 

I think they're more likely to die of hypothermia than anything else.

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