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Chewing Grass

Power outage this winter - what are the odds?

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Its very hard to find numbers on this but the last couple of pages of this 10 page report have the info needed.

Total generating capacity on a cold still evening excluding imports was 55GW.

Mild winters since 2011 means peak demand has dropped by 10-15%, however the numbers in the graph are not peak demand which was 52GW last year and 53GW the year before, both not cold winters by any stretch of the imagination.

5a04ab471bad8_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1_1pdf.png.431cc62e01a4325434713ae9890fdd34.png

Generating capacity available for this winter is as below.

5a04aea482fc6_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1pdf.png.feae22553e27f743bb938be0af307fc3.png

Strip out renewables and 54GW is available at 100% plant capacity.

Add hydro and a short burst of storage and we get 58GW.

Remember they hide these figures by using average demand not peak figures.

Untitled.png.d855a07ad9b04e98d0120b6ea396be8b.png

 

 

Screenshot-2017-11-9 Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1_2 pdf.png

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Add in the fact that the French are hoping to pump 7GW out of the British system this winter if it is parky! (so they announced on the news last night)

We had a message from the EDF : "In order to safeguard the electricity supply for everyone we may have to put in place powercuts this winter" - it is almost Orwellian.

Edited by davidg

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Interesting info in your post @Chewing Grass

I haven’t trusted our leaders for many years to keep power supplies on to meet demand. Usually when I talk about this to people I get “the glazed eye, she’s a loony look from them”. Some people I know or chat to do have concerns though!

Rolling power cuts have happened before. I remember them in the 70’s and recall them as no big deal in our family, fun even.

I also think that the uk has continued to decline in many ways regarding looking after the population and creating opportunities to make a living for the average person.

Anyway when I moved to my latest home six years ago I installed a multi fuel stove. 

IMO a stove ensures an appliance that doesn’t create condensation, I give my money to a local coal business, always opportunities to pick up low or no cost wood and I don’t feed the rip off utility suppliers money for heating. Also I can boil water on it and cook stuff.

Best to be self sufficient as much as possible from my perspective.

I’m fairly certain that one winter there will not be enough grid capacity to meet demand

 

 

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1 minute ago, Economic Exile said:

Interesting info in your post @Chewing Grass

I haven’t trusted our leaders for many years to keep power supplies on to meet demand. Usually when I talk about this to people I get “the glazed eye, she’s a loony look from them”. Some people I know or chat to do have concerns though!

Rolling power cuts have happened before. I remember them in the 70’s and recall them as no big deal in our family, fun even.

I also think that the uk has continued to decline in many ways regarding looking after the population and creating opportunities to make a living for the average person.

Anyway when I moved to my latest home six years ago I installed a multi fuel stove. 

IMO a stove ensures an appliance that doesn’t create condensation, I give my money to a local coal business, always opportunities to pick up low or no cost wood and I don’t feed the rip off utility suppliers money for heating. Also I can boil water on it and cook stuff.

Best to be self sufficient as much as possible from my perspective.

I’m fairly certain that one winter there will not be enough grid capacity to meet demand

You live in a rural area so folks are better adjusted mentally for such things.

I imagine in a place as urban and ethnically diverse as London all hell would break out in some areas with a good percentage of the population viewing it as an ideal time for a mass free for all as all the security systems go down and the streets and transport system is gridlocked.

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Just now, Chewing Grass said:

You live in a rural area so folks are better adjusted mentally for such things.

I imagine in a place as urban and ethnically diverse as London all hell would break out in some areas with a good percentage of the population viewing it as an ideal time for a mass free for all as all the security systems go down and the streets and transport system is gridlocked.

Agreed.

Many so called “well adjusted” younger people can’t cope with a break in their iPhone signal. If they can’t have a shower, use their microwave, hair dryers, heating etc lots of them too will go into a meltdown, breakdown type state of mind.

If I was a city dweller I would definitely have a plan in place to escape if TSHTF in some way. Power outage through lack of the grid to meet demand is high on my could happen list!

I don’t regard myself as a tin foil hat conspiracy type person, just sensible about life

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

You live in a rural area so folks are better adjusted mentally for such things.

I imagine in a place as urban and ethnically diverse as London all hell would break out in some areas with a good percentage of the population viewing it as an ideal time for a mass free for all as all the security systems go down and the streets and transport system is gridlocked.

One of the big concerns with tower block living is that in a power cut the block rapidly become unliveable.  lifts don'r work, many heating/cooking systems are electric, air con goes off, water pressure may go off, lighting goes off (and many apartments have very little natural light.

It's always put me off even considering purchasing a property without the ability to create heat and light safely off grid.

 

edit: thinking about it, some of the yanks I knew who lived in NY in Sandy and were in downtown NY during the flooding had some pretty dire tales about block living becoming a nightmare as well

Edited by wherebee

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19 minutes ago, Economic Exile said:

Interesting info in your post @Chewing Grass

I haven’t trusted our leaders for many years to keep power supplies on to meet demand. Usually when I talk about this to people I get “the glazed eye, she’s a loony look from them”. Some people I know or chat to do have concerns though!

Rolling power cuts have happened before. I remember them in the 70’s and recall them as no big deal in our family, fun even.

I also think that the uk has continued to decline in many ways regarding looking after the population and creating opportunities to make a living for the average person.

Anyway when I moved to my latest home six years ago I installed a multi fuel stove. 

IMO a stove ensures an appliance that doesn’t create condensation, I give my money to a local coal business, always opportunities to pick up low or no cost wood and I don’t feed the rip off utility suppliers money for heating. Also I can boil water on it and cook stuff.

Best to be self sufficient as much as possible from my perspective.

I’m fairly certain that one winter there will not be enough grid capacity to meet demand

 

 

I remember hoping for a powercut. It was so exciting. Getting the candles out, cooking with a camping stove.  No telly so you had to do other stuff. 

Simple times. :)

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1 minute ago, One percent said:

I remember hoping for a powercut. It was so exciting. Getting the candles out, cooking with a camping stove.  No telly so you had to do other stuff. 

Simple times. :)

I predict a riot! no internet!

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Just now, One percent said:

Is that just dosbodders who start getting withdrawal symptoms?  

if mobile phone systems break down then will people just stare at their phones? how long do these fancy phones last before needing a charge?

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Smart meters will be great for power rationing - peak pricing. Can't believe how many people fell for the gimmick of a little display showing them how much money they have spent during a day.

4 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

I predict a riot! no internet!

Don't worry, I have brought ten thousand miles of string and over 200 paper cups - should be enough for the dosweb.

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5 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

if mobile phone systems break down then will people just stare at their phones? how long do these fancy phones last before needing a charge?

Whenever anything kicks off they apparently disable the phone signals. I understand that it happened in the London Underground bombings ten or so years ago 

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They won't cut the cities off with rolling outages for the reasons above. It will be the provinces that get hit and twice as bad to make up for the large cities having 24x7 leccy.

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Has anyone seen the MAJOR lately. I was going to ask what his survival tips would be in the event of severe power outages. Shot of getting a generator there isn't really much besides candles and thick clothess and batteries right?

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Just now, spunko2010 said:

Has anyone seen the MAJOR lately. I was going to ask what his survival tips would be in the event of severe power outages. Shot of getting a generator there isn't really much besides candles and thick clothess and batteries right?

Couple of cases of bottled water as that is pumped to your tap by electricity in these modern times.

Small camping stove or kelly kettle.

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48 minutes ago, OurDayWillCome said:

Smart meters will be great for power rationing - peak pricing. Can't believe how many people fell for the gimmick of a little display showing them how much money they have spent during a day.

That's why everyone should be refusing smart meters (or at least, that's one of the reasons why).

They are NOT compulsory. You can refuse and you don't have to explain or give a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Errol said:

That's why everyone should be refusing smart meters (or at least, that's one of the reasons why).

They are NOT compulsory. You can refuse and you don't have to explain or give a reason.

I also advise wasting as much of their time as possible when they phone up pretending your meter is due an upgrade. I have been stringing British the Gas Bastards along for months and then I switched to OVO 😁

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In the process of renewing my gas/electric contract, latest much recommend British Gas offer is dependent upon having a SMART meter - the aren't even cross company compatible! So from silly advertising speel to cohersion. I won't have one... I believe in time it will be harder to avoid. All about rationing and poor state of UK power provision.

Not comfortable with foreign companies having control of strategically important utilities. EDF claiming significant supply (7gW) for France!

 

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2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Its very hard to find numbers on this but the last couple of pages of this 10 page report have the info needed.

Total generating capacity on a cold still evening excluding imports was 55GW.

Mild winters since 2011 means peak demand has dropped by 10-15%, however the numbers in the graph are not peak demand which was 52GW last year and 53GW the year before, both not cold winters by any stretch of the imagination.

5a04ab471bad8_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1_1pdf.png.431cc62e01a4325434713ae9890fdd34.png

<img class="ipsImage ipsImage_thumbnailed" data-fileid="2532" src="https://www.dosbods.co.uk/uploads/monthly_2017_11/5a04ab471bad8_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1_1pdf.png.431cc62e01a4325434713ae9890fdd34.png" alt="5a04ab471bad8_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1_1pdf.png.431cc62e01a4325434713ae9890fdd34.png" />

Generating capacity available for this winter is as below.

5a04aea482fc6_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1pdf.png.feae22553e27f743bb938be0af307fc3.png

<img class="ipsImage ipsImage_thumbnailed" data-fileid="2534" src="https://www.dosbods.co.uk/uploads/monthly_2017_11/5a04aea482fc6_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1pdf.png.feae22553e27f743bb938be0af307fc3.png" alt="5a04aea482fc6_Screenshot-2017-11-9Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1pdf.png.feae22553e27f743bb938be0af307fc3.png" />

Strip out renewables and 54GW is available at 100% plant capacity.

Add hydro and a short burst of storage and we get 58GW.

Remember they hide these figures by using average demand not peak figures.

Untitled.png.d855a07ad9b04e98d0120b6ea396be8b.png

<img class="ipsImage ipsImage_thumbnailed" data-fileid="2535" src="https://www.dosbods.co.uk/uploads/monthly_2017_11/Untitled.png.d855a07ad9b04e98d0120b6ea396be8b.png" alt="Untitled.png.d855a07ad9b04e98d0120b6ea396be8b.png" />

 

 

Screenshot-2017-11-9 Drax_Electric_Insights_Report_2017_Q1_2 pdf.png

On the basis that the system is no longer about the efficient generation and distribution of electricity and a system not designed for local input has loads of crap solar panels and windmills attached I’d say a big power outage is very likely 

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Here power cuts are still a way of life. Every sensible sized business has backup power and, indeed, it is one of my company's core services offered.

As stated, this brings a state of mind of non-reliance. In turn, I suppose it is also an indicator of a government's inability to control. A good thing then.

One ironic side story: my resort does many corporate conferences and also was built when the nearest grid connection was nearly 200KM away. For this reason, even though the grid now passes our entrance, we have not connected, due to cost and irregular supply. Our off grid hydropower plant, solar, 16T of batteries and 400KVA of generating power backup mean we can actually produce cheaper, more reliable power ourselves.

Our latest corporate guests to book? EDC, the nationalised power company of Cambodia! 160 of the most senior executives coming. The advance cohort ask "why are you not using EDC?" 

"Too expensive and unreliable" was our GM's reply. To be fair to them, they did not disagree!

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2 hours ago, OurDayWillCome said:

Smart meters will be great for power rationing - peak pricing. Can't believe how many people fell for the gimmick of a little display showing them how much money they have spent during a day.

After saying no to a smart meter for a couple of years I got a letter today saying they needed to change my meter, to a smart meter. I am going to ignore until they start mentioning warrants, then I will grant entry but obstruct. No thanks

Edited by Panther

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3 hours ago, davidg said:

Add in the fact that the French are hoping to pump 7GW out of the British system this winter if it is parky! (so they announced on the news last night)

They're going to be disappointed to find that the interconnector to our grid can only provide 2GW then, are they not?

Have we had this yet? http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

If peak demand is 55GW and we have 54GW of non-renewable capacity still installed, then we'll be OK this winter I reckon, as wind power almost never drops to zero, and Dinorwig can provide 1.7GW for six hours. I daresay more coal plants are going to close soon though, so the next few winters might be interesting.

I'm pretty sure my wife has enough scented candles stashed around here to see us through about a week with no power9_9.

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Why the opposition to smart meters? The reality is that at certain times of day there is more demand for electricity (ie at 6pm when people return from work). Smart meters are the first step in having a variable cost of electricity. If electricity costs more at certain times it will mean power use will be spread throughout the day. That means we need to build less power stations and the cost of electricity should go down...

Consumers should be encouraged to do things like switch the laundry on when there is less demand for electricity ie at 2am or when it's windy and there is plenty cheap electricity from wind turbines.

Good topic anyway OP! After that Japanese nuclear plant melt down the Germans shut their nuclear power stations. The French shut a lot of their nuclear plants due to the power companies fiddling safety records... In all honesty power cuts are likely... I personally have a stockpile of candles and a Meths stove :)

 

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