When will the trades start dropping prices?

[spunko]

I'm running out of DIY tasks and need to get the trades in to do a few things. Some small, some large projects, that I've been putting off since Covid started. Given that prices for both labour & materials have gone mental, I decided to wait until the recession kicks in and the trades are almost desperate for work.

Anyone seeing anything anecdotally about falling prices/labour, that might give me a glimmer of hope?

[Joncrete Cungle]

Not yet, still getting daft quotes.

[Bobthebuilder]

The opposite tends to happen during recessions, Early on many will drop the price to get work and it will go wrong, then many trades drop out, get full time jobs etc. The good ones who survive can then name their price.

My most profitable years was 2008 until 2013.

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The opposite tends to happen during recessions, Early on many will drop the price to get work and it will go wrong, then many trades drop out, get full time jobs etc. The good ones who survive can then name their price.

My most profitable years was 2008 until 2013.

Skill dependant 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Skill dependant 

Very true, during recessions it tends to be essential works that need doing eg new boiler or roof, not vanity boom time projects.

@spunko said he had run out of DIY projects and needs trades, that's the money shot.

[spunko]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Very true, during recessions it tends to be essential works that need doing eg new boiler or roof, not vanity boom time projects.

@spunko said he had run out of DIY projects and needs trades, that's the money shot.

Yeah I am looking at a small extension at some point in the next 2-3 years, it will need someone who has worked with listed buildings but I refuse to pay the current going rates for materials if I can wait a bit longer and save maybe the best part of ten grand by doing so.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

I refuse to pay the current going rates for materials if I can wait a bit longer and save maybe the best part of ten grand by doing so.

Always a gamble spunko, I didn't want to pay £3 for some tomatoes today, but I had no choice. Going to save some seeds from them for my grow this year to minimise the financial hit.

With any building project it pays to collect materials as cheap as possible and store them until your builder is ready, you can save a fortune.

[Green Devil]

Yeah, not seeing any trades ready to offer tempting prices. Everything is either batshit high or don't bother quoting. Especially oneman bands. Roofers gardeners etc. However, i did find that finding a gas safe plumber was relatively easy. If the outfit is a company with say 3-4 employees, they are quoting prices to keep their workforce employed rather than sitting around on iphones. @Spunko check out izzy the bricky on youtube, he'd be one guy who'd get your extension done in a week at a decent price (skilled, hard working, smart and still have energy to go to the gym after). His last project would be of particular interest to you. However i doubt you can find many traders like that (more the pity).

[spunko]

1 minute ago, Green Devil said:

Yeah, not seeing any trades ready to offer tempting prices. Everything is either batshit high or don't bother quoting. Especially oneman bands. Roofers gardeners etc. However, i did find that finding a gas safe plumber was relatively easy. If the outfit is a company with say 3-4 employees, they are quoting prices to keep their workforce employed rather than sitting around on iphones. @Spunko check out izzy the bricky on youtube, he'd be one guy who'd get your extension done in a week at a decent price (skilled, hard working, smart and still have energy to go to the gym after). His last project would be of particular interest to you. However i doubt you can find many traders like that (more the pity).

It'll need to be oak framed probably knowing the planners round here Not that I care, I like oak framed extensions however it does seem to reduce the number of interested trades.

I have a landscaper/general guy who does brickwork and masonry plus anything hard graft in the garden that I can't be bothered to do. He's putting up a chestnut fence at the moment. Still charges £150 a day. Not the hardest worker as he's a bit of a daydreamer but sod finding someone else at the moment who'll do these kinds of jobs for day rates.

[Green Devil]

1 minute ago, spunko said:

It'll need to be oak framed probably knowing the planners round here Not that I care, I like oak framed extensions however it does seem to reduce the number of interested trades.

I have a landscaper/general guy who does brickwork and masonry plus anything hard graft in the garden that I can't be bothered to do. He's putting up a chestnut fence at the moment. Still charges £150 a day. Not the hardest worker as he's a bit of a daydreamer but sod finding someone else at the moment who'll do these kinds of jobs for day rates.

Ah. Thats him out then, hes just a bricky. Youre gonna be hard pushed then i can tell. Yeah ive found it hard to get a gardner that will work on a day rate. Most want to quote for the job, disposing the rubbish, usually 3 times what id expect to pay if they worked on a 'day' rate. Most would rather take 3 days, take it easy  and charge 3 times as much. I would be very happy with a trade who charged 'only' £150 per day.

[onlyme]

38 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Always a gamble spunko, I didn't want to pay £3 for some tomatoes today, but I had no choice. Going to save some seeds from them for my grow this year to minimise the financial hit.

With any building project it pays to collect materials as cheap as possible and store them until your builder is ready, you can save a fortune.

Absolutely, just what I had to do. Christ knows how much the natural stone I used would cost now, some I bought from pull downs cheap from another builder because he himself had nowhere to keep it, some given away if I cleared it for free, some I dragged out of a skip (with permission of course), lots of other bits and pieces, insulation from auction house for peanuts (though I bet even that would go for far more now). Materials don't seem to be falling much or at all after their rapid rise.

  

[onlyme]

Not sure if this is a true reflection of the pattern I see across trades but I get the impression that knowledge and registration heavy trades like plumbing / electrics a lot of the older trades have slowly trickled away from it as  regulatory burden has grown over the years - not  just the learning aspect but actively reducing working days / hours with age still means the same hit to the point where  it is not worth it. So over the last decade or so quite a few new entrants whether starting on own or via larger companies. At the other end, the general builders a lot that I know at  or near retirement, they have labourers and partners /staff in some cases but the numbers seem limited. 

Edited February 21 by onlyme

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

I'm running out of DIY tasks and need to get the trades in to do a few things. Some small, some large projects, that I've been putting off since Covid started. Given that prices for both labour & materials have gone mental, I decided to wait until the recession kicks in and the trades are almost desperate for work.

Anyone seeing anything anecdotally about falling prices/labour, that might give me a glimmer of hope?

Cheapskate. These people have homes to heat and families to feed.

[Bobthebuilder]

16 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

I would be very happy with a trade who charged 'only' £150 per day.

I charged that day rate in 1999.

[humdrum]

As Bob said, a good tradesman is never out of work.

Personally, I am always surprised when they turn up.

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, humdrum said:

As Bob said, a good tradesman is never out of work.

Personally, I am always surprised when they turn up.

Turning up on time is rule number 1, any trade that cant, never gets another call again within the trades.

I went to look at a kitchen fit tonight, crap design and the customer kept talking about cost. I was there for 15 minutes, told him I was not interested and left.

Everyone talks about crap tradesmen, but in my book its usually crap customers.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Turning up on time is rule number 1, any trade that cant, never gets another call again within the trades.

I went to look at a kitchen fit tonight, crap design and the customer kept talking about cost. I was there for 15 minutes, told him I was not interested and left.

Everyone talks about crap tradesmen, but in my book its usually crap customers.

If it’s done right with no problems then I always drop a drink. Had new carpets front room , hall, stairs, landing 2 yrs ago . Happy with the job, dropped a nifty 50 to the two lads. Carpets, heating, bricks. If you can’t do it yourself, pay for the result you want. Buy cheap, buy twice.

[F150]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Yeah I am looking at a small extension at some point in the next 2-3 years, it will need someone who has worked with listed buildings but I refuse to pay the current going rates for materials if I can wait a bit longer and save maybe the best part of ten grand by doing so.

An extension

how very boomer

[Bobthebuilder]

46 minutes ago, Phil said:

pay for the result you want.

That is the best way I have heard it put, going to nick that if you don't mind Phil.

[PETR4]

I've just had a replacement cast iron soil stack fitted with a new junction  to allow an ensuit bathroom on the 2nd floor. Cost £700 for the pipe £175 for 6 days of scaffolding and £200 per day for the workman. So £2075 all in. The guy's done an epic job. I'm well happy 🙂

 

[spunko]

10 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Cheapskate. These people have homes to heat and families to feed.

 very large homes in a few local cases!

[spunko]

8 hours ago, F150 said:

An extension

how very boomer

Cheaper than moving  or at least it used to be 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 hours ago, spunko said:

Cheaper than moving  or at least it used to be 

One of my builder mates is 67, old school type that can smell incoming recessions. He stopped doing extensions and loft conversions recently, he is convinced the works are getting too expensive and people will choose to move to a bigger house going forward.

Edited February 22 by Bobthebuilder

[spunko]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

One of my builder mates is 67, old school type that can smell incoming recessions. He stopped doing extensions and loft conversions recently, he is convinced the works are getting too expensive and people will choose to move to a bigger house going forward.

I am not so sure. Stamp duty is extremely dear now, the cost for that alone for me would probably be about the same as the cost of my porch, it's mental.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

One of my builder mates is 67, old school type that can smell incoming recessions. He stopped doing extensions and loft conversions recently, he is convinced the works are getting too expensive and people will choose to move to a bigger house going forward.

Was talking to a neighbour down the street just before lunch.
Theyve had planning permission for an extension for over 18 months now.

They were talking to me about it about 5 or 6 years ago and what they planned to do.
They only started getting quotes the week after the permission went through.

They are holding out for cheaper material prices..

5 or 6 years ago would probably have cost 30-40k I suppose. Dont think they would get much change out of 100k now as wife isnt low maintenance. They could move to a bigger house for an extra 20-30k.
10 years from retirement as well, by the time they sort it out the kids will have already left!

Wouldnt be surprised to see planning expire as they cant do the groundworks as it involves moving drains, knocking down one wall.