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You're Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming


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You're Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming

I thought a few people here might appreciate this - very interesting read, though the second part requires a subscription to view.

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But all bubbles burst -- painfully of course. That’s their very nature.

Mathematically, it's impossible for half or more of a bubble's participants to close out their positions for a gain. But in reality, it's even worse. Being generous, maybe 10% manage to get out in time.

That means the remaining 90% don’t. For these bagholders, the losses will range from 'painful' to 'financially fatal'.

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The current nest of global bubbles in nearly every financial asset (stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, collectibles, etc) is entirely without precedent. How big are these in wave terms? Are they a series of 8-foot waves? Or more like 12-footers? 

At this magnitude level, it doesn't really matter. They're going to be very, very destructive when they break.

 

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Chewing Grass

I was thinking about this today, also read an article on DeGaulle, plus another on the economic state of France.

If you look at the globalist agenda and the E.U. at its structural level it has always struck me that the poorer countries joined the 'club' for a pice of the pie at the big table.

Voters were happy to go along as they also wanted EU levels of pay and working conditions on the assumption they would be equal to those of France/Germany.

The Euro came along and it further propped this assumption up as surely if there was a single currency there would also be a level playing field for pay and conditions as well.

This quite obviously has not happened and the big difference is the cost of living varies hugely across Europe and this has a lot to do with the price of a roof over your head.

So the presumption that everyone would be better off has not happened and the differences in property prices and renumeration scuppered the grand dream of european economic and thus political unification.

The only thing left is the destruction of property wealth, afterall equality can also readily be achieved by driving the wealthier nations down to a lower common denominator somewhere around the level of Spain/Greece i.e. a level achievable for the likes of Bulgaria/Romania.

In other words they will want to destroy any stores of wealth you have, think about the proposal to get rid of the banking guarantee, bail ins, destruction of property wealth via mortgage rates and jobs. Once youre wealth has evaporated you will be dependant on the teat of the state, and that may well be the 'benevolance' of the EU and thas your vote and inedependence on many levels is paid for.

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12 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I was thinking about this today, also read an article on DeGaulle, plus another on the economic state of France.

If you look at the globalist agenda and the E.U. at its structural level it has always struck me that the poorer countries joined the 'club' for a pice of the pie at the big table.

Voters were happy to go along as they also wanted EU levels of pay and working conditions on the assumption they would be equal to those of France/Germany.

The Euro came along and it further propped this assumption up as surely if there was a single currency there would also be a level playing field for pay and conditions as well.

This quite obviously has not happened and the big difference is the cost of living varies hugely across Europe and this has a lot to do with the price of a roof over your head.

So the presumption that everyone would be better off has not happened and the differences in property prices and renumeration scuppered the grand dream of european economic and thus political unification.

The only thing left is the destruction of property wealth, afterall equality can also readily be achieved by driving the wealthier nations down to a lower common denominator somewhere around the level of Spain/Greece i.e. a level achievable for the likes of Bulgaria/Romania.

In other words they will want to destroy any stores of wealth you have, think about the proposal to get rid of the banking guarantee, bail ins, destruction of property wealth via mortgage rates and jobs. Once youre wealth has evaporated you will be dependant on the teat of the state, and that may well be the 'benevolance' of the EU and thas your vote and inedependence on many levels is paid for.

I must admit, when I look at the current bubbles in virtually every asset class, I have to wonder if it's a genuine side effect of QE and monetary policy, or if QE and monetary policy are the vehicles being used to achieve a deliberate target. Suggesting it was deliberate seems insane, but no more so than central bankers continually refusing to acknowledge the existence of bubbles when they seem blatantly obvious to anybody using a common sense definition.

If you are correct though, surely they need to get on with it and start destroying the stores of wealth before the EU collapses. I don't just mean Brexit, there could be a revolution in any of the PIIGS pretty much any time, and once one defaults and does a bunk, it's game theory for everybody else.

One thing is for sure, we live in interesting times :)

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16 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I was thinking about this today, also read an article on DeGaulle, plus another on the economic state of France.

If you look at the globalist agenda and the E.U. at its structural level it has always struck me that the poorer countries joined the 'club' for a pice of the pie at the big table.

Voters were happy to go along as they also wanted EU levels of pay and working conditions on the assumption they would be equal to those of France/Germany.

The Euro came along and it further propped this assumption up as surely if there was a single currency there would also be a level playing field for pay and conditions as well.

This quite obviously has not happened and the big difference is the cost of living varies hugely across Europe and this has a lot to do with the price of a roof over your head.

So the presumption that everyone would be better off has not happened and the differences in property prices and renumeration scuppered the grand dream of european economic and thus political unification.

The only thing left is the destruction of property wealth, afterall equality can also readily be achieved by driving the wealthier nations down to a lower common denominator somewhere around the level of Spain/Greece i.e. a level achievable for the likes of Bulgaria/Romania.

In other words they will want to destroy any stores of wealth you have, think about the proposal to get rid of the banking guarantee, bail ins, destruction of property wealth via mortgage rates and jobs. Once youre wealth has evaporated you will be dependant on the teat of the state, and that may well be the 'benevolance' of the EU and thas your vote and inedependence on many levels is paid for.

I suppose it is worth pointing out that 'wealth' is merely a saved call on future manpower (and, perhaps IP).  It doesn't matter the form of that wealth, whether cash-like, or shares, or property.

And you're right.  They'll take away it all.  So what they're going to be taking away is the potential for you to have a call on others' labour in the future.

This has* to happen -- currently, there is more call on future labour, than future labour to supply it.  They've done everything they can, from importing labour (immigration) and exporting effort (outsourcing, which pretty much is just called 'everything is made in China'), but there is still far too much of an imbalance (arguably the outsourcing has just made things more difficult, in that there are now loads of Chinese with a call on future labour).

So, it's going to be messy...

[as to how to survive it -- I'm reminded of the depressions in Germany and in the USA.  The 'modern view' is that we'd be the ones escaping the country to a wealthier place, or perhaps be setting up new businesses to take advantage of the recovery.  The fact is that the population couldn't do this; there were too many barriers to migration, too many barriers to setting up a business when there wasn't enough money for food.   In those days the answer was to be part of a rural community, where people could support one another.  Now, I'm not so sure.  For a start, everyone in the rural communities is commuting into the town for their office job.  I predict there'll be loads of plans, but no-one actually available & skilled to do the work.  The other point is: the Soviets managed to bugger up the rural areas as well, by saying that the state would do agriculture better.  ]

Perhaps the best place to be is surrounded by people who know how to deal with such times, where the skill-set and motivations are already present in a good proportion of the population.  I'd suggest ex-Soviet states, and possibly places in south America.  And maybe places like Norfolk and Somerset -- so long as all the Poles don't leave.

[* oh, I suppose robots could supply the future labour.  They'd better hurry up, because time is running out]

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sleepwello'nights
37 minutes ago, dgul said:

So, it's going to be messy...

[as to how to survive it -- I'm reminded of the depressions in Germany and in the USA.  The 'modern view' is that we'd be the ones escaping the country to a wealthier place, or perhaps be setting up new businesses to take advantage of the recovery.  The fact is that the population couldn't do this; there were too many barriers to migration, too many barriers to setting up a business when there wasn't enough money for food.   In those days the answer was to be part of a rural community, where people could support one another.  Now, I'm not so sure.  For a start, everyone in the rural communities is commuting into the town for their office job.  I predict there'll be loads of plans, but no-one actually available & skilled to do the work.  The other point is: the Soviets managed to bugger up the rural areas as well, by saying that the state would do agriculture better.  ]

Perhaps the best place to be is surrounded by people who know how to deal with such times, where the skill-set and motivations are already present in a good proportion of the population.  I'd suggest ex-Soviet states, and possibly places in south America.  And maybe places like Norfolk and Somerset -- so long as all the Poles don't leave.

We aint finished yet. The lessons of history are there for us to see. The developed West survived the great depression, Germany survived their hyper-inflation, France survived the economic turmoil following their revolution, as did Russia and the countries behind the Iron curtain.

It will cause difficulties, not least because in the UK in my lifetime we've never had any shortages of food in the shops, even in the days of the three day week and electricity rationing. There may even be civil war as various factions look to fill a power vacuum if one arises.

Despite our sheltered lives we are resilient and adaptable. It will be messy if it does come to pass. To survive individually you just have to follow the rules of nature, you group together to survive. Picking the right group, that's probably no more than a matter of luck. 

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19 minutes ago, davidg said:

Load up on guns and bring your friends, that's my advice.

If we're lucky the biggest enemy will be the state.  In that case, the guns won't work (the state will have bigger guns).

Friends I agree with -- but they'd better be handy.  IMO, our biggest problem is the sheer number of inept managers we've got in the country.

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3 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

We aint finished yet. The lessons of history are there for us to see. The developed West survived the great depression, Germany survived their hyper-inflation, France survived the economic turmoil following their revolution, as did Russia and the countries behind the Iron curtain.

It will cause difficulties, not least because in the UK in my lifetime we've never had any shortages of food in the shops, even in the days of the three day week and electricity rationing. There may even be civil war as various factions look to fill a power vacuum if one arises.

Despite our sheltered lives we are resilient and adaptable. It will be messy if it does come to pass. To survive individually you just have to follow the rules of nature, you group together to survive. Picking the right group, that's probably no more than a matter of luck. 

We'll be fine in the long term. 

I was in the Balkans in the summer -- there is a thriving economy and people get on.  Similarly with the Baltic states.  They're reasonable places to be.

Yet they were both difficult places to live only a few years ago.

It is the short/medium term we've got to worry about.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/3/2017 at 14:29, dgul said:

If we're lucky the biggest enemy will be the state.  In that case, the guns won't work (the state will have bigger guns).

Friends I agree with -- but they'd better be handy.  IMO, our biggest problem is the sheer number of inept managers we've got in the country.

in most countrys your right but i dont think our army swear alligence to the state,even many of our officers are still sort of upperclass.id go for cival war.imo.

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  • 4 weeks later...
sleepwello'nights

I've just been watching a Jordan Peterson video on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IBegL_V6AA.

He's discussing political traits and how they originate from our innate biological tendencies. Many, many interesting points, but what compels me to bring it up in this post is how the current trend for left wing political thought is being strengthened by the appointment of university academics with left wing tendencies.

It mentions how law students are inculcated with that bias, how they become the judiciary and then the judicial system then tends towards stronger left wing bias. More importantly it highlights how the faculties of education within universities are the worst areas in this respect. Its around 46 minutes in if TL don't want to watch.

This strikes a very strong anecdotal chord with me.  Fairly frequently in my early 20s whenever I met young women who were studying to become teachers I noticed they had very pronounced left wing tendencies. OK they would have those tendencies anyway to choose that career choice but it seemed to me far more pronounced than simply an innate tendency.  

Perhaps this is a reason why we're becoming less prepared for the inevitable consequences of the path we are following. I need to watch it more carefully to follow the argument through, it explains the biological reasons for our social constructs and political leanings. Sad that I am  find it fascinating.

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19 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I've just been watching a Jordan Peterson video on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IBegL_V6AA.

He's discussing political traits and how they originate from our innate biological tendencies. Many, many interesting points, but what compels me to bring it up in this post is how the current trend for left wing political thought is being strengthened by the appointment of university academics with left wing tendencies.

It mentions how law students are inculcated with that bias, how they become the judiciary and then the judicial system then tends towards stronger left wing bias. More importantly it highlights how the faculties of education within universities are the worst areas in this respect. Its around 46 minutes in if TL don't want to watch.

This strikes a very strong anecdotal chord with me.  Fairly frequently in my early 20s whenever I met young women who were studying to become teachers I noticed they had very pronounced left wing tendencies. OK they would have those tendencies anyway to choose that career choice but it seemed to me far more pronounced than simply an innate tendency.  

Perhaps this is a reason why we're becoming less prepared for the inevitable consequences of the path we are following. I need to watch it more carefully to follow the argument through, it explains the biological reasons for our social constructs and political leanings. Sad that I am  find it fascinating.

Thanks, I'll take a look at that when I have time. Presumably there must come a point where either the pendulum swings back toward the right, or the right becomes totally annihilated and we turn into a species that sits around on our arses bitching about the inequality of it all and waiting for someone who no longer exists to pay for our existence.

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sleepwello'nights
49 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Thanks, I'll take a look at that when I have time. Presumably there must come a point where either the pendulum swings back toward the right, or the right becomes totally annihilated and we turn into a species that sits around on our arses bitching about the inequality of it all and waiting for someone who no longer exists to pay for our existence.

If you watch it in full it is optimistic that a change in the prevailing attitude will come about and bring a more balanced academic environment. It will eventually  work through into the general world, that takes a much longer time. The change into the current left wing bias has happened during my lifetime.

What won't change is us sitting around and bitching about the inequality of it all. :D

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2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

left wing political thought is being strengthened by the appointment of university academics with left wing tendencies.

Francis Wheen wrote in one of his books on stupidity that, from my rough memory, in the 1970s, an english literature academic who followed Derrida and his deconstructionalist ilk would be immediately ruled out for a job at Oxford: in 1980s, he wouldn't be considered for the role unless he did.

Are we surprised by the results of the destruction of all meaning?

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Back to the thread title - I really, really don;t need the crack up to happen until after the end of 2019.  I'll be sorted by then.

 

If it happens in 2018 -oops.

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3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Back to the thread title - I really, really don;t need the crack up to happen until after the end of 2019.  I'll be sorted by then.

 

If it happens in 2018 -oops.

I wouldn't worry I imagine that we'll be full steam ahead until at least the next US Presidential elections in 2020.

It's going to be spectacular when it all goes up. 

xD

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  • 1 month later...
On 06/01/2018 at 15:07, SpectrumFX said:

I wouldn't worry I imagine that we'll be full steam ahead until at least the next US Presidential elections in 2020.

It's going to be spectacular when it all goes up. 

xD

Yeah.  Our plans are more and more hardening to getting back to Australia by mid 2019.  I do NOT want to be outside of freindly territory when it all goes tits up and have to worry about stuff whilst in a foreign land.

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Most of these arrticles are written by Americans for a very good reason - they do great bubbles in the US:

Dow Jones

dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-histor

 

Whereas in the UK it has been steady as she goes, I couldn't fund a chart up to the present but the FTSE 100 as of now is 7,230 compared to 6,300 five years' ago.  So up ?15% whilst the US has gone up 250%.  If I was holidng a lot of US stocks I'd be selling; UK I'm not worried.  It may correct a bit.

FTSE_100_Index.png

 

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On 03/12/2017 at 13:42, dgul said:

I suppose it is worth pointing out that 'wealth' is merely a saved call on future manpower

This is often said, but it isn't a bad thing. The future manpower will be paid for at the time it is consumed,  and this is known as employment and is a good thing. If lots of claims are made, this results in more work being done than usual, and this is known as growth, which is often seen as a good thing. One thing is certain: people in the future will consume the products of their future economy. They won’t be able to send any thing or service back in time to us today.

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4 hours ago, Everentt said:

This is often said, but it isn't a bad thing. The future manpower will be paid for at the time it is consumed,  and this is known as employment and is a good thing. If lots of claims are made, this results in more work being done than usual, and this is known as growth, which is often seen as a good thing. One thing is certain: people in the future will consume the products of their future economy. They won’t be able to send any thing or service back in time to us today.

I don't think that's right.  If lots more claims are made than there is work capable of being done, then the value of the work will increase relative to the ability of savers to pay for it, and this is known as inflation.  Whether that's a good or a bad thing depends on your personal circumstances.

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You're right, that could happen. But too much demand is very easy to cure: either the government puts up interest rates to encourage people to defer their consumption a while longer, or they raise taxes to drain some of the money out of the system.

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On 1/6/2018 at 10:47, Fully Detached said:

Thanks, I'll take a look at that when I have time. Presumably there must come a point where either the pendulum swings back toward the right, or the right becomes totally annihilated and we turn into a species that sits around on our arses bitching about the inequality of it all and waiting for someone who no longer exists to pay for our existence.

I think that the pendulum is swinging right but nobody knows by how much because voices not on message are shouted down. Hence the SJW shock at the Brexit and Trump results.

The French are traditionally bone deep socialists yet one third of them voted for Le Pen.

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