Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[headrow]

21 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

I see that's a bond, and you have £15K over the FSCS protection 100% of the first £85,000, what would happen in the event of a bail-in?

Cos it's a bond it's safe? surely not, i'm i missing something? 

 

 

 

 

I presume anything above £85k and I'd lose it?

 

I have 3 bonds with Barclays actually totalling 220k and I have my current account with 10k in also with Barclays. If Barclays went bust I'd probably lose £145,000 , maybe more as I've got quite a high cash balance with HL in both my ISA and Share account , is this deposited with Barclays via HL? It has to be somewhere in the banking system I presume?

 

Going into the crash of 2008 I had all my assets in the Halifax , I can't remember even being worried when it looked like the whole financial sysem was going tits up. I don't know how close I came to losing the lot but It never gave me any sleepless nights , having all my cash in shares when covid 'happened' certainly did.

[Pip321]

19 minutes ago, headrow said:

I presume anything above £85k and I'd lose it?

I have 3 bonds with Barclays actually totalling 220k and I have my current account with 10k in also with Barclays. If Barclays went bust I'd probably lose £145,000 , maybe more as I've got quite a high cash balance with HL in both my ISA and Share account , is this deposited with Barclays via HL? It has to be somewhere in the banking system I presume?

Going into the crash of 2008 I had all my assets in the Halifax , I can't remember even being worried when it looked like the whole financial sysem was going tits up. I don't know how close I came to losing the lot but It never gave me any sleepless nights , having all my cash in shares when covid 'happened' certainly did.

I currently have a lot held in cash for numerous reasons.

I worked in the banking system 2008, and never held more than £85k (single) or  £170k (joint) in any bank since. It’s a ball ache and spreading cash around also loses money on maximising interest on some of those great offers….

The exception is recently in my SIPP where cash is with HSBC and I am over the limit there so have ensured no other exposure to HSBC plus looking at moving into other funds asap.

Cash over £85k will be fine if every bank fails, because it’s likely if that happens the FSCS will fail anyway…..the issue is if your bank is one of only a handful that collapse then you will lose money that could have been avoided

I believe some banks in the US had ‘a bit of a wobble’ 🤦🏻‍♂️ 😏 recently but were bailed out…..it will be interesting to see what happens as world debt rises and the machines start creaking. 

I guess I am like someone who has worked in abattoir and no longer eats meat. 😉

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, headrow said:

I presume anything above £85k and I'd lose it?

 

I have 3 bonds with Barclays actually totalling 220k and I have my current account with 10k in also with Barclays. If Barclays went bust I'd probably lose £145,000 , maybe more as I've got quite a high cash balance with HL in both my ISA and Share account , is this deposited with Barclays via HL? It has to be somewhere in the banking system I presume?

 

Going into the crash of 2008 I had all my assets in the Halifax , I can't remember even being worried when it looked like the whole financial sysem was going tits up. I don't know how close I came to losing the lot but It never gave me any sleepless nights , having all my cash in shares when covid 'happened' certainly did.

How better is the rate for having above the FSCS at Barclays? Say +0.5% you are betting £145,000 to win £725 so 1-200 that Barclays won't go bust.

Re HL I posted in here that they told me £1.7m per customer was safe, which might mean they know about combined the banking licences and spread your money across 20 that are different.

[Long time lurking]

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

This is the sort of reason iv taken a contrarian view on EM asset managers.As more trade is done outside of the $,more savings will be invested in each others countries.Its cross market,and at the end of where it becomes a guess,but i see just enough chance for a big return if right.

[sancho panza]

the lefties at the Beeb can't help themselves,realirty is that he's libertarian leaning.

good news for Argie miners I suspect-Abra/Fortuna

Mrs P finally let us cancel our TV licnece a week or tow back after an informative discussion on here.Glad I'm not subsidizng their pension deficit anymore

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

Javier Milei: Argentina's far-right outsider wins presidential election

Argentines have elected far-right libertarian outsider Javier Milei, 53, as their new president.

With almost all votes counted, Mr Milei had won close to 56% in the decisive run-off, ahead of his left-wing rival, Sergio Massa, with 44%.

The radical newcomer's victory has been described as "a political earthquake".

It has been welcomed by like-minded politicians such as US ex-President Donald Trump, who said Mr Milei would "Make Argentina Great Again".

Brazil's former leader Jair Bolsonaro said that "hope would shine again in South America".

Sometimes dubbed "El Loco" (the madman) by his critics, Mr Milei has promised drastic changes, which include ditching the local currency, the peso, for the dollar and "blowing up" the central bank.

He has also proposed cutting welfare payments and slashing bureaucracy by closing the ministries of culture, women, health and education, among others.

On social issues, the president-elect wants to loosen gun laws, abolish abortion - which was legalised in Argentina in 2020 - and allow the sale and purchase of human organs.

Mr Milei's victory comes amid a deep economic crisis which has seen annual inflation rise to 143% and 40% of Argentines living in poverty.

 

Edit to add..

Sky tak e a more reasoned tone

https://news.sky.com/story/argentina-elects-right-wing-populist-javier-milei-as-president-13012028

Argentina elects right-wing populist Javier Milei as president

While opinion polls conducted before the election had given Mr Milei a slight lead over Mr Massa, the wide margin of his win - by more than 11% according to provisional results - has surprised many.

Edited November 20 by sancho panza

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

the lefties at the Beeb can't help themselves,realirty is that he's libertarian leaning.

good news for Argie miners I suspect-Abra/Fortuna

Mrs P finally let us cancel our TV licnece a week or tow back after an informative discussion on here.Glad I'm not subsidizng their pension deficit anymore

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

Javier Milei: Argentina's far-right outsider wins presidential election

Argentines have elected far-right libertarian outsider Javier Milei, 53, as their new president.

With almost all votes counted, Mr Milei had won close to 56% in the decisive run-off, ahead of his left-wing rival, Sergio Massa, with 44%.

The radical newcomer's victory has been described as "a political earthquake".

It has been welcomed by like-minded politicians such as US ex-President Donald Trump, who said Mr Milei would "Make Argentina Great Again".

Brazil's former leader Jair Bolsonaro said that "hope would shine again in South America".

Sometimes dubbed "El Loco" (the madman) by his critics, Mr Milei has promised drastic changes, which include ditching the local currency, the peso, for the dollar and "blowing up" the central bank.

He has also proposed cutting welfare payments and slashing bureaucracy by closing the ministries of culture, women, health and education, among others.

On social issues, the president-elect wants to loosen gun laws, abolish abortion - which was legalised in Argentina in 2020 - and allow the sale and purchase of human organs.

Mr Milei's victory comes amid a deep economic crisis which has seen annual inflation rise to 143% and 40% of Argentines living in poverty.

 

Edit to add..

Sky tak e a more reasoned tone

https://news.sky.com/story/argentina-elects-right-wing-populist-javier-milei-as-president-13012028

Argentina elects right-wing populist Javier Milei as president

While opinion polls conducted before the election had given Mr Milei a slight lead over Mr Massa, the wide margin of his win - by more than 11% according to provisional results - has surprised many.

Lol far right.

Everything's far right if it's not far left. I work with a guy who is convinced that we've had right wing governance since 2010.

[sancho panza]

On 18/11/2023 at 17:00, Royston said:

So just looking at the broader picture of the markets in general, and US in particular, can we assume that the fabled "BK" is once again off the table and we're back on course to the moon and beyond?

BK for me is defltion starting in credit markets/banking system which by definition needs a banking crisis to be running.BK is on the table as it ever was(this will end in a seismic upheavel in credit markets) but it's not imminent imho -see banking thread.

Hence we're still 95% long the market in classic bsement sectors like oil/pm miners/comms/baccy/potash/cashJust to

On 19/11/2023 at 09:37, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,i have discretionary trusts set up,also will trusts to kick in on death for family members who cannot be trusted with capital.They are a nightmare though,and most banks have removed bank accounts.If IHT was much higher i would close my brothers and put the money into my name.They really only work now for the very rich,or where you cannot trust the person to have the capital.

The allowances arent great either and you're constrained by Trust law as to how you invest to a degree.ALso CGT applicable ......you dodge one tax to get hit by more.

On 19/11/2023 at 10:17, honkydonkey said:

It limits consumption of a product with massive negatives and very few positives. If smoking was cheap then people would be smoking 60+ cigarettes a day and that's not good for anyone.

Smokers generally pay for the privilege of dying younger.

These days in the UK,as @Joncrete Cungle says,they're no longer paying for that privilege as much and with people living longer ,the lifelong cost of healthcare increases,which way the ledger balances o out is anotehr question

I used to smoke btw.

[Lightly Toasted]

4 hours ago, headrow said:

I presume anything above £85k and I'd lose it?

I have 3 bonds with Barclays actually totalling 220k and I have my current account with 10k in also with Barclays. If Barclays went bust I'd probably lose £145,000 , maybe more as I've got quite a high cash balance with HL in both my ISA and Share account , is this deposited with Barclays via HL? It has to be somewhere in the banking system I presume?

Going into the crash of 2008 I had all my assets in the Halifax , I can't remember even being worried when it looked like the whole financial sysem was going tits up. I don't know how close I came to losing the lot but It never gave me any sleepless nights , having all my cash in shares when covid 'happened' certainly did.

Is it a deposit (thus subject to deposit insurance) that's somehow branded as a bond?

If it's a bond then the bond seniority will count -- losses are allocated to junior bondholders first. iirc a complication of the 2008 bailouts was that senior bondholders had priority [at least] equivalent to depositors, so allowing the banks to go pop would have depleted amounts available to make depositors whole. This should never be allowed.

IMO you shouldn't assume you have £85k of deposit insurance protection with something called a bond, unless you have it in writing that underneath it actually is a deposit.

Edited November 20 by Lightly Toasted

[DurhamBorn]

48 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

the lefties at the Beeb can't help themselves,realirty is that he's libertarian leaning.

good news for Argie miners I suspect-Abra/Fortuna

Mrs P finally let us cancel our TV licnece a week or tow back after an informative discussion on here.Glad I'm not subsidizng their pension deficit anymore

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

Javier Milei: Argentina's far-right outsider wins presidential election

Argentines have elected far-right libertarian outsider Javier Milei, 53, as their new president.

With almost all votes counted, Mr Milei had won close to 56% in the decisive run-off, ahead of his left-wing rival, Sergio Massa, with 44%.

The radical newcomer's victory has been described as "a political earthquake".

It has been welcomed by like-minded politicians such as US ex-President Donald Trump, who said Mr Milei would "Make Argentina Great Again".

Brazil's former leader Jair Bolsonaro said that "hope would shine again in South America".

Sometimes dubbed "El Loco" (the madman) by his critics, Mr Milei has promised drastic changes, which include ditching the local currency, the peso, for the dollar and "blowing up" the central bank.

He has also proposed cutting welfare payments and slashing bureaucracy by closing the ministries of culture, women, health and education, among others.

On social issues, the president-elect wants to loosen gun laws, abolish abortion - which was legalised in Argentina in 2020 - and allow the sale and purchase of human organs.

Mr Milei's victory comes amid a deep economic crisis which has seen annual inflation rise to 143% and 40% of Argentines living in poverty.

 

Edit to add..

Sky tak e a more reasoned tone

https://news.sky.com/story/argentina-elects-right-wing-populist-javier-milei-as-president-13012028

Argentina elects right-wing populist Javier Milei as president

While opinion polls conducted before the election had given Mr Milei a slight lead over Mr Massa, the wide margin of his win - by more than 11% according to provisional results - has surprised many.

Like how the BBC slip in at the end the 143% inflation that lefties created.Its amazing how those on the state tit never care because they are inflation protected.

[DurhamBorn]

Its frozen thresholds hitting the working lower paid more than anything else.Lets see what they do,but thresholds and bennies are the key,anything else is just noise.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12769883/Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-Autumn-Statement-Jeremy-Hunt.html

Treasury officials have been examining how feasible a 1p or 2p cut would be ahead of Wednesday's statement. They have ruled out relaxing the frozen thresholds around the levies.

Cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13billion to £14 billion a year and save UK households around £450 annually on average. 

[Long time lurking]

13 hours ago, Cawn said:

 

They way i have always seen this is if China etc don`t want to hold fiat and they are exchanging it for gold denominated in said fiat currency ,would it be beneficial for the gold price in said currency to be high or low ? 

They are not buying gold because they think it`s going to the moon they are buying it avoid holding said fiat 

 

Edited November 20 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

Very significant if correct ,i can`t speak the lingo so don`t shoot the messenger if it`s bollocks 

Edit apparently it`s AI generated 

 

Edited November 20 by Long time lurking

[janch]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

the lefties at the Beeb can't help themselves,realirty is that he's libertarian leaning.

good news for Argie miners I suspect-Abra/Fortuna

Mrs P finally let us cancel our TV licnece a week or tow back after an informative discussion on here.Glad I'm not subsidizng their pension deficit anymore

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

Javier Milei: Argentina's far-right outsider wins presidential election

Argentines have elected far-right libertarian outsider Javier Milei, 53, as their new president.

With almost all votes counted, Mr Milei had won close to 56% in the decisive run-off, ahead of his left-wing rival, Sergio Massa, with 44%.

The radical newcomer's victory has been described as "a political earthquake".

It has been welcomed by like-minded politicians such as US ex-President Donald Trump, who said Mr Milei would "Make Argentina Great Again".

Brazil's former leader Jair Bolsonaro said that "hope would shine again in South America".

Sometimes dubbed "El Loco" (the madman) by his critics, Mr Milei has promised drastic changes, which include ditching the local currency, the peso, for the dollar and "blowing up" the central bank.

He has also proposed cutting welfare payments and slashing bureaucracy by closing the ministries of culture, women, health and education, among others.

On social issues, the president-elect wants to loosen gun laws, abolish abortion - which was legalised in Argentina in 2020 - and allow the sale and purchase of human organs.

Mr Milei's victory comes amid a deep economic crisis which has seen annual inflation rise to 143% and 40% of Argentines living in poverty.

 

Edit to add..

Sky tak e a more reasoned tone

https://news.sky.com/story/argentina-elects-right-wing-populist-javier-milei-as-president-13012028

Argentina elects right-wing populist Javier Milei as president

While opinion polls conducted before the election had given Mr Milei a slight lead over Mr Massa, the wide margin of his win - by more than 11% according to provisional results - has surprised many.

Hilariously at 7am he was "far -right", by 9am he was "right" and by noon he was "libertarian" on BBC R4

[Long time lurking]

18 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

This sums it up and the whole mRNA experiment "targetting people in the interests of the state for economic reasons, rather than prioritising the person's own interests and health'.

Prof Simon Capewell, a public health policy expert and emeritus professor at Liverpool University, said the comments by Novo Nordisk executives were “shocking and “absolutely unethical”. He added: “They suggest targeting people in the interests of the state, for economic reasons, rather than prioritising the person’s own interests and health.”

 

[Axeman123]

Just now, janch said:

Hilariously at 7am he was "far -right", by 9am he was "right" and by noon he was "libertarian" on BBC R4

He also goes by another name...

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

BK for me is defltion starting in credit markets/banking system which by definition needs a banking crisis to be running.BK is on the table as it ever was(this will end in a seismic upheavel in credit markets) but it's not imminent imho -see banking thread.

Hence we're still 95% long the market in classic bsement sectors like oil/pm miners/comms/baccy/potash/cashJust to

Here is one possible timeline, I suspect this time recession will go faster though...

 

[Ash4781b]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its frozen thresholds hitting the working lower paid more than anything else.Lets see what they do,but thresholds and bennies are the key,anything else is just noise.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12769883/Rishi-Sunak-tax-cuts-Autumn-Statement-Jeremy-Hunt.html

Treasury officials have been examining how feasible a 1p or 2p cut would be ahead of Wednesday's statement. They have ruled out relaxing the frozen thresholds around the levies.

Cutting income tax by 2p in the pound would cost £13billion to £14 billion a year and save UK households around £450 annually on average. 

Lol campaign on tax rises then raise personal allowances. Then say impossible to cut rates. Then cut rates. Should bring in Liz Truss as a special adviser?

[Joncrete Cungle]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

He also goes by another name...

Here is one possible timeline, I suspect this time recession will go faster though...

 

Roughly fits the winter 2024 collapse timeline from DB.

[JMD]

19 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/18/obesity-jab-maker-data-to-profile-benefits-claimants

Whilst I'm not keen on Benefit claiming lard arses I do find this very sinister, especially after the way they tried to force Covid Jabs on everyone.

That Danish pharma article is interesting because the Scandinavian countries do have recent form when it comes to eugenics. For example Sweden only stopped running programmes like the one below in 1976.

It is a curious mantra of the Left that the Scandinavian people are perceived as being the most liberal and 'progressive' types of people. I would probably agree - however, i do not think that the politics of lefty-progressivism is a good thing!!... Is it I wonder just a coincidence that Gretta T comes from Sweden!?

https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/08/how-did-sweden-sterilise-up-to-30000-people-against-their-will-in-the-cause-of-eugenics#:~:text=Sweden set up a eugenics,one dared to talk about.

 

Edited November 20 by JMD

[kibuc]

53 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Very significant if correct ,i can`t speak the lingo so don`t shoot the messenger if it`s bollocks 

Edit apparently it`s AI generated 

 

"I have no idea whether it's actually true and I have done fuck all to check it, but I'll share it anyway" is the disease of our times.

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

"I have no idea whether it's actually true and I have done fuck all to check it, but I'll share it anyway" is the disease of our times.

Do your own research  as sated,(which i had already done for you and edited it to point it out )

Some fuckers want everything laid out on a plate for them ,then call people lazy for not doing what they can do for themselves

Yep it`s definitely a sign of the times 

[kibuc]

30 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Do your own research  as sated,(which i had already done for you and edited it to point it out )

Some fuckers want everything laid out on a plate for them ,then call people lazy for not doing what they can do for themselves

Yep it`s definitely a sign of the times 

All you've "laid on the plate" was misinformation through your own negligence, but you're calling other people lazy? Fuck off mate 

[Loki]

 

[Democorruptcy]

38 minutes ago, Loki said:

 

BoE indicate they have seen the Autumn Statement coming on Wednesday and they aren't impressed.

[23rdian]

7 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Who else is glad they didn't  succumb to taking this poison?