Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[A tremendous # on the lung]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

LHA unfreeze starts April - I predict a spring election.

I thought that when he said the 2% NI cut would start from January 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, feed said:

not sure what you lot are complaining, about he's going to launch a review to see how “bureaucracy is holding the country back”

And didn't Hunt also promise a 2 year rollout of a national training pilot scheme, costing £50million, to investigate and learn what the engineering needs of this country are and also what effective form the training should take?

Can someone please confirm. Did I actually hear the chancellor of this country really say that he needed to implement such a nonsense waste-of-time scheme - or was it (and am I still most probably) in a very lucid living nightmare?!

Edited November 22, 2023 by JMD

[ashestoashes]

2 hours ago, Onsamui said:

The Pentagon Fails Another Audit - Trillions Missing | Armstrong Economics

spending on underground bases/cities for continuity of government/civilisation event which is overdue ?

[Pip321]

I have been out today and it’s been a joy catching up on this thread….rather than read the BBC rubbish about the autumn statement.

I have analysed the data, fed into AI machines, had a couple of noble prize winning economists review and checked with peer macro guys we all use and below is the prediction for the UK economy now. Oh and the EU too…..

[belfastchild]

42 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

I thought that when he said the 2% NI cut would start from January 

6th Jan, so will hit the end of Jan pay packets. Not a lot of time to get it done.
Spring election was what I thought too, why rush it?

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

6th Jan, so will hit the end of Jan pay packets. Not a lot of time to get it done.
Spring election was what I thought too, why rush it?

Something really bad coming down the line?  

[Ash4781b]

Bennie brigade. On me! Why did you not get the same increase as the state pension increase! How dare they do this!

[ashestoashes]

8 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

6th Jan, so will hit the end of Jan pay packets. Not a lot of time to get it done.
Spring election was what I thought too, why rush it?

put off a vote of no confidence so Rishi gets to lose as PM

[Ash4781b]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They have decided to use frozen tax allowances to hammer the retired to claw back pension increases and use NI instead so workers only gain.

The basics of this budget are bennies and inflation protected gain,private sector savers and retired get screwed.The LHA increase is a disaster for renters not on bennies,it will hammer them as rents increase due to it.

I can’t see this statement going down well with Core Conservatives. Might be funny to watch if it unravels. I think the benefits will demand higher increases I think.

[Roger]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Tricky bastards...LHA unfreeze starts April - I predict a spring election.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/655e107697196d000d985d6b/E02982473_Autumn_Statement_Nov_23_Accessible_v3.pdf

Thanks for posting this.

So it's predicted to be roughly a £1.5bn increase (for the first full year).

Does anyone have any idea how to work out what percentage this increase is expected to be? Ie what the current total cost of LHA is.

I've tried looking for it. It doesn't seem to be in the accounts for Gove's department:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dluhc-annual-report-and-accounts-2021-to-2022

I'm starting to suspect they deliberately obfuscate it by setting the rates centrally but having it paid through council budgets so that no one can see what it adds up to.

[Eventually Right]

Haha-telegraph not even trying to pretend it’s about helping social tenants…😂

Boost for landlords of 1.6m properties as Chancellor gives rental cash injection

An increase in housing benefits payments will provide relief for property owners

ByMelissa Lawford22 November 2023 • 7:08pm

Hundreds of thousands of landlords will receive a cash injection worth £1.3bn next year in a move that will protect property owners from tenants who are at most risk of falling into arrears.

A freeze on the cap on local housing allowance (LHA) rates will be lifted from April next year, the Treasury announced.

This means the Government’s contribution to the rent of 1.6m social tenants living in the private rental sector will increase by an average of £800 per year, Jeremy Hunt said.

[Shits McGee]

Just now, Eventually Right said:

Haha-telegraph not even trying to pretend it’s about helping social tenants…😂

Boost for landlords of 1.6m properties as Chancellor gives rental cash injection

An increase in housing benefits payments will provide relief for property owners

ByMelissa Lawford22 November 2023 • 7:08pm

Hundreds of thousands of landlords will receive a cash injection worth £1.3bn next year in a move that will protect property owners from tenants who are at most risk of falling into arrears.

A freeze on the cap on local housing allowance (LHA) rates will be lifted from April next year, the Treasury announced.

This means the Government’s contribution to the rent of 1.6m social tenants living in the private rental sector will increase by an average of £800 per year, Jeremy Hunt said.

 

We must help our portfol...poorrrrrr poorest members of society!

[Plan-b]

Its been quite the day today regarding the Autumn Statement, just a little peek behind the curtain into the minds of the psychopaths that run this country, and the world. I imagine the UK systemic collapse countdown time has been somewhat shortened.

[janch]

Richard Tice on GB News just now was saying exactly what @DurhamBorn has been banging on about ie government spending is way too high and needs drastic cutting.  He didn't quite say we face collapse if not.

Several contributors said the Autumn Statement was talking about tax cuts when in reality people will actually be worse off in spite of the NI cuts because of "fiscal drag" so it was all smoke and mirrors and could be considered as fraudulent.  People will realise as soon as they get their first pay cheque if they haven't twigged straight away.

[honkydonkey]

DB's predictions coming true.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Very true.fiscal drag means 4 mn new taxpayers  and then 3mn new 40%ers according to the graf

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/stealth-raid-drag-three-million-40-per-cent-income-tax-band/

Stealth raid to drag millions into 40 per cent income tax band

‘Fiscal drag’ phenomenon will also mean a further four million on relatively low incomes will be captured by tax system

Workers are losing almost five times as much to the stealth raid on income tax as they are gaining from the 2 percentage-point cut to National Insurance.

The long freeze on income tax thresholds will rake in £44.6bn per year by 2028-29, equivalent to a 10 percentage-point rise in national insurance, the Office for Budget Responsibility said.

An extra three million workers will be dragged into the 40pc rate of income tax over the next five years as thresholds remain frozen against a backdrop of high inflation.

Another 400,000 will be pushed into paying the 45pc top rate of tax, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The “fiscal drag” phenomenon will also mean a further four million on relatively low incomes will be captured by the tax system for the first time.

The total number of income tax payers will increase to almost 40 million, with almost 10 million of those paying the higher and top rates, according to figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Edited November 22, 2023 by sancho panza

[Errol]

15 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

DB's predictions coming true.

What about car parking?

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Haha-telegraph not even trying to pretend it’s about helping social tenants…😂

Boost for landlords of 1.6m properties as Chancellor gives rental cash injection

An increase in housing benefits payments will provide relief for property owners

ByMelissa Lawford22 November 2023 • 7:08pm

Hundreds of thousands of landlords will receive a cash injection worth £1.3bn next year in a move that will protect property owners from tenants who are at most risk of falling into arrears.

A freeze on the cap on local housing allowance (LHA) rates will be lifted from April next year, the Treasury announced.

This means the Government’s contribution to the rent of 1.6m social tenants living in the private rental sector will increase by an average of £800 per year, Jeremy Hunt said.

if it looks and sounds like a back door bail out of over leveraged BS's then it probably is.Spent some of this afternoon loking at Natiownides rcent interims.The important stuff is in the small print.

Bascially £40bn BTL loan book,still 91% IO,more than enough to sink the good ship NWide.Overleveraged,overhyped and over here.

The real wtf moment is the amount of BTL loans being marked at  stage 2 deteriorating-page 21-about 50% of the BTL book

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/-/assets/nationwidecouk/documents/about/how-we-are-run/results-and-accounts/2023-2024/interim-results-september-2023.pdf?rev=3bdc8ba8adc645f98e03f5ba810461b6

Page 21-Please note here that of £43bn in BTL loans £20bn are stage 2............

Edited November 22, 2023 by sancho panza

[AWW]

4 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

put off a vote of no confidence so Rishi gets to lose as PM

This. Hunt has leadership ambitions, but no going in to bat when the wicket is absolutely terrible.

[AWW]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The real wtf moment is the amount of BTL loans being marked at  stage 2 deteriorating-page 21-about 50% of the BTL book

Page 21-Please note here that of £43bn in BTL loans £20bn are stage 2............

Jaw-dropping stuff. Keep it coming please SP.

[AWW]

9 hours ago, feed said:

And if you are under 30 and/or a high waged worker, what the hell are you still doing in the country. 

It's the same everywhere bar a few shitholes you wouldn't want to live in. If there's a low-tax country with good living standards, modern infrastructure, low crime rates and an emphasis on personal freedom, I'd love to hear about it.

[Plan-b]

26 minutes ago, Errol said:

What about car parking?

In the eyes of TPTB the little people that need to turn their homes into flats, and those that will be buying/renting those flats are the kind that won't likely be able to own or have the use of private cars. 

They see public transport for the those lesser than themselves. Of course those above us who are better and more privileged wont be living in flats made from converted houses either.

The actions of the last few years tells us that the plebs won't be allowed to use much or very little of the precious energy the chosen few will need to run their Super-Yachts, Private Jets and Mansions. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Plan-b

[AWW]

42 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

DB's predictions coming true.

Can you imagine the battery hen style living arrangements that will result from this when the Homes Under The Hammer mongs start splitting tiny houses into even tinier flats without any planning oversight?

Edited November 22, 2023 by AWW

[sancho panza]

spamming the graf

more recession tastic news and we're not even in recession

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/22/more-businesses-shutting-than-starting-first-time-12-years/

More businesses shutting than starting up for the first time in 12 years, says ONS

The ‘business death rate’ was at 11.8pc with transport and storage sector the worst hit

More businesses are shutting down than starting up for the first time in 12 years, official data shows. 

The number of businesses closing down jumped by 5pc year-on-year to hit 345,000 last year, pushing the so-called “business death rate” to a 12-year high.

11.8pc of all active businesses closed down in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The rate was up from 11.2pc in 2021 and the highest since 2009, when businesses were hammered by the global financial crisis. Then, the death rate was also 11.8pc.

Transport and storage businesses were the worst hit, with nearly a quarter (23.8pc) of all companies in the sector closing down. 13.6pc of tech businesses shut down as rising interest rates made it harder for many start-ups to raise money.

The number of new businesses created fell by 7pc to 337,000 last year, meaning more businesses were shut down than were created. It marked the first time this has happened since 2010.

Business death rate at a 12-year high

Line chart with 2 lines.

Birth and death rates of business

 

The chart has 1 X axis displaying categories.

The chart has 1 Y axis displaying Values. Data ranges from 0 to 0.

 

 

 

 

End of interactive chart.

[honkydonkey]

Someone mentioned CE2 Cropenergies a few weeks back. I bought into that today. It's a German bioethanol, animal feed producer.

In a similar segment BAYER is crashing and back to 08 prices.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by honkydonkey