Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[ashestoashes]

9 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Who else is glad they didn't  succumb to taking this poison? 

don't think I'd be alive if I'd taken the AZ one

[Bobthebuilder]

27 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Who else is glad they didn't  succumb to taking this poison? 

A mate of mine had his booster a couple of weeks ago, been fucked ever since, left eye out of line cant see fuck all, then got taken from the dentist to A&E for a suspected stroke.

[Pip321]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A mate of mine had his booster a couple of weeks ago, been fucked ever since, left eye out of line cant see fuck all, then got taken from the dentist to A&E for a suspected stroke.

But no covid though….so a statistical success I guess.

Maths and science are the new religion….sound enough if well meaning and challenged but in the wrong hands can be used for evil, control and death. 🤫

Sorry to hear about your mate…

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

But no covid though….so a statistical success I guess.

Maths and science are the new religion….sound enough if well meaning and challenged but in the wrong hands can be used for evil, control and death. 🤫

Sorry to hear about your mate…

Its all a load of bollocks Mr Pip, cannot believe any twat fell for it.

[wherebee]

14 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

How better is the rate for having above the FSCS at Barclays? Say +0.5% you are betting £145,000 to win £725 so 1-200 that Barclays won't go bust.

Re HL I posted in here that they told me £1.7m per customer was safe, which might mean they know about combined the banking licences and spread your money across 20 that are different.

I had an unsolicited email recently from Interactive Brokers setting out the safety of investments held on their platform, detailing the custodians, etc, and regulators.

Never seen that before in all my years with that broker and others.  

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A mate of mine had his booster a couple of weeks ago, been fucked ever since, left eye out of line cant see fuck all, then got taken from the dentist to A&E for a suspected stroke.

did you say these two things to him:

- it's a vaccine injury, make sure the doctors give you evidence they have recorded it as such, so you get compensation later

- can I have your car if you snuff it

[reformed nice guy]

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/markets-economy/what-to-expect-from-the-economy-and-markets-in-2024

Vanguard posted up their predictions for 2024.

 

[Jay]

4 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/markets-economy/what-to-expect-from-the-economy-and-markets-in-2024

Vanguard posted up their predictions for 2024.

 

Thanks for posting..basically gradual cuts in rates to around 3.5%..no mention of inflation but generally unemployment is rising up approx 1% so the economy is slowing but not collapsing..in direct contrast to that tweet model which says hard landing and sub 1% rates by early 2025..

there no mention of us federal debt which does not seem to reducing..plus as others have mention early next year the reverse repo funds have dried up so liquidity issues..

history says fed prints so imo no soft landing..muddy waters ahead but i think the inflation dragon will be returning with loose fiscal policy..will rates be cut is the question as if inflation is rising then they really can’t..uk economy grows by 0.5%..less than population grow so same same…so the only thing the tea leaves are saying expect the continuation of decline in public infrastructure and public services..we live in interesting times..be lucky..

[Axeman123]

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest-thoughts/markets-economy/what-to-expect-from-the-economy-and-markets-in-2024

Vanguard posted up their predictions for 2024.

They are still pushing the 60:40 approach I note, in spite of how badly it has fucked a lot of people over the last few years. It is also interesting to see how high the unemployment rate they are predicting for the EU is.

2 hours ago, Jay said:

basically gradual cuts in rates to around 3.5%

Its funny how it is doctrinal to predict these gradual downward adjustments every time, and yet on a chart that essentially never happens:

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

They are still pushing the 60:40 approach I note, in spite of how badly it has fucked a lot of people over the last few years. It is also interesting to see how high the unemployment rate they are predicting for the EU is.

Its funny how it is doctrinal to predict these gradual downward adjustments every time, and yet on a chart that essentially never happens:

Cuts are always faster than the increases. 

[DurhamBorn]

Its like sitting on a bench waiting for everyone else to catch up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67474899

Government borrowing in October was higher than expected at £14.9bn, largely pushed up by higher benefit payments, official figures show.

[Loki]

Happy FOMC minutes day everyone.   How will you be celebrating? 

 

[NogintheNog]

13 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

13 hours ago, 23rdian said:

Who else is glad they didn't  succumb to taking this poison? 

don't think I'd be alive if I'd taken the AZ one

Twenty years ago I would have very likely taken the vax. I didn't used to think for myself back then and worked in the travel industry so would have been coerced into taking it at some point.
When Covid arrived and then 9 months later the AZ was introduced I looked at the mechanics of how this thing worked and was immediately suspicious. Then the MRNA vax's arrived which did a different workaround but the mechanism was essentially the same. Effectively they both get your cells to produce the spike protein (toxin) that your bodies immune system then fights to give you immunity.
These products were certainly not vaccines in the normal sense like live attenuated or inactivated vaccines. And once it became obvious that the AZ was causing clots etc, that was it, no jabs for me. It's pretty obvious to me that the MRNA vaxes have also done damage outweighing any claimed benefits.

Huge numbers of people I know took the vax so they could go on holiday!
I finally got Covid from a girlfriend who was fully vaxed Christmas 2022, so effectively fully vaxed!

THE REAL INJECTION FROM COVID THOUGH WAS THE HUGE LIQUIDITY PUMPED IN BY CENTRAL BANKS INTO THE VEINS AND ARTERIES OF THE WORLD ECONOMY, PROPPING UP AND DISTORTING EVERYTHING.

Does make you wonder whether that was the real reason for the way most western governments acted the way they did?? And the reason scientists involved weren't aware of the 'Eat out to help out' scheme until after it was introduced from the Covid inquiry (whitewash)???
So what horrors are they planning next to get out of the shithole they find themselves in.....

Edited November 21 by NogintheNog

[Chewing Grass]

11 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

So what horrors are they planning next to get out of the shithole they find themselves in.....

They will just steal funds (investments) from pensions and leverage them into spendable fiat on the back of 'green investments'.

[NogintheNog]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

4 hours ago, Jay said:

basically gradual cuts in rates to around 3.5%

Its funny how it is doctrinal to predict these gradual downward adjustments every time, and yet on a chart that essentially never happens:

 

2 hours ago, Stuey said:

Cuts are always faster than the increases. 

I think I'm right in saying those grey lines on @Axeman123 chart are recessions. It is I suppose fairly obvious that to reduce demand and inflation you need to create a recession which would ideally be a nice slow down. But as that chart shows you never get that, and the next down turn is likely to result in a huge print, and the Hunter 'melt up'.

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

But as that chart shows you never get that, and the next down turn is likely to result in a huge print, and the Hunter 'melt up'.

AIUI the printing and BK come after the meltup. The meltup will be driven (again AIUI) by front-running the falsely anticipated return to goldilocks following the pause.

[DurhamBorn]

I think people are waking up to the fact present policies mean systemic collapse.I suspect bennie changes today,but they will be nowhere near whats needed.They might even mess with the UC taper,that will do nothing to help turn things.It will be all too small of course.The Tories have been a disaster.However Labour will find themselves in worse trouble.No money and everyone shouting for it.That is when they might really go after capital.Its not a good prospect for most on here.

[WICAO]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

They are still pushing the 60:40 approach I note, in spite of how badly it has fucked a lot of people over the last few years...

But has 60:40 really f*cked over a lot of people or did a lot of people put to much weight on 60:40 and not enough weight on things like saving hard (spending on needs/loves and not wants/likes etc), minimising taxes, minimising investment expenses, understanding what returns 60:40 would give in a left tail sequence of returns, low stress low BS WFH side hustles etc.

Of course I'm just a single anecdotal but my portfolio is really not much more than a 60:40 and over the longish term it's still generating a positive real return and because I've also done those other things life is pretty darn good with little to no financial worries.

[Eventually Right]

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think people are waking up to the fact present policies mean systemic collapse.I suspect bennie changes today,but they will be nowhere near whats needed.They might even mess with the UC taper,that will do nothing to help turn things.It will be all too small of course.The Tories have been a disaster.However Labour will find themselves in worse trouble.No money and everyone shouting for it.That is when they might really go after capital.Its not a good prospect for most on here.

Yeah, I don't think think there'll be fundamental changes until things get properly ugly. 

Whilst the powers that be are still confident of collecting their inflation-proof pensions, the decline continues.  When they realise those pensions are on course to be paid in monopoly money, because sterling is going to crater on the current course...then we might see some radical changes.  

Fuck knows whether it'll be too late by then though.

[Boon]

Digital currency on its own might be enough?
I'd imagine that if all benefits switched to this and their use was curtailed to 'approved' uses, then the benefits lifestyle might stop or be devalued rapidly, with one real GBP being worth much more than a digital one which are basically no more than vouchers.

Same principle could then be applied to pensions, then a portion of people's savings, then a portion of people's investments. 

Most people wouldn't even know what had happened. 

[Onsamui]

14 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

don't think I'd be alive if I'd taken the AZ one

Same here as I have osteoarthritis and have to watch inflammatories.  I also read a lot of what happened to Judy Mikovits so it was obvious what was coming in around 2018.

[Lightly Toasted]

2 minutes ago, Boon said:

Digital currency on its own might be enough?
I'd imagine that if all benefits switched to this and their use was curtailed to 'approved' uses, then the benefits lifestyle might stop or be devalued rapidly, with one real GBP being worth much more than a digital one which are basically no more than vouchers.

Same principle could then be applied to pensions, then a portion of people's savings, then a portion of people's investments. 

Most people wouldn't even know what had happened. 

It would allow the state to renege on its real obligations while nominally meeting them. I think it's either this or collapse, no other politically achievable solution that I can see.

There'd be no need to apply it to productive investments since these are not state obligations, and need to be encouraged. Dividends will continue to be paid in real money IMO. Salaries -- debatable. Whatever the employer earns, is what it is able to pay.

Inclusion of dividends would be for political ("let's make the rich bastards suffer") reasons, and counterproductive because it would deter [incl. foreign] investment and production. But pensions, cash savings etc. would be ripe for inclusion, I think.

 

[Loki]

25 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Inclusion of dividends would be for political ("let's make the rich bastards suffer") reasons, and counterproductive because it would deter [incl. foreign] investment and production. But pensions, cash savings etc. would be ripe for inclusion, I think.

What we need is a massive collapse in stock prices that will put people off holding them for the rest of their lives....

[Heart's Ease]

Been listening to a lot of Luke Gromen the past week or two. Lots of interest to this thread, but my top two takeaways are:

- USA has nowhere to go other than printing

- he's overweight physical gold, bitcoin.

Last two interviews have been on 'bitcoin' channels. I welcome their contribution and different viewpoint (bitcoin is a hard money life raft in a sea of fiat). 

 

 

 

I have not listened to any Bitcoin Standard interviews previously but Saife had Lyn Alden on the previous video and that was also a great listen. He had read and digested her Broken Money book and it showed.

[sleepwello'nights]

3 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

So what horrors are they planning next to get out of the shithole they find themselves in.....

Have you not noticed, war in Ukraine, war in Israel, where will the next one be@