Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Bien Pensant]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The wife come home from work yesterday and there was 3 kilos of minecd pork shoulder n belly pork,sausage stuffer,skins,herbs spices etc all out......kitchen was a right tip

'You been talking to Bob the builder again'...she says...

This us where I've arrived four years after taking bobs guidance and planting my own spuds in pots.not only got an allotment but making my own sausages and bacon now following a recent discussion on here between him n others

These are frankfurter,brat wurst and hot pork sausage posing with the bacon.the sausages taste anazing

This thread has got me doing stuff that I'd never have thought of doing otherwise.my thanks to all.

Sadly the biltong didn't work out so well but now I have a plan to buy air dryer and do it that way

'Look at my works ye mighty and despair'

 

Edit to add @Bobthebuilder

Great work, put me in mind of a video I was watching the other night about historical food preservation (specifically, in 18th Century America) and how it led to many of the things we consider to be 'staples' today:

BTW, if anyone wants to know how all this stuff 'works' chemically/biologically, then On Food and Cooking: The Science and Lore of the Kitchen by Harold McGee is pretty fascinating.

[Bien Pensant]

9 hours ago, AWW said:

Unelected man who forced out unelected woman cares about democracy. Yawn.

Haven't watched the speech but it's important to note that when the elite talk about "Our Democracy", they mean it as a proper noun for their 'political machine', i.e. the association of decision-makers and opinion-formers who puppet the appurtenances of the state for their own benefit, not democracy as a general concept and certainly not something directed by the plebs.

FWIW, I don't think that they will be able to save it, the world is decentralising and bypassing them, so it's just going to end up as a general shitshow, Russia 1991 style.

Edited March 2 by Bien Pensant

[wherebee]

32 minutes ago, ccc said:

Ok I've read a lot about the performing lot down here. Fair play if it is doing well however I think it may be weighted by those who do well. People who lose don't like to advertise the fact. 

Anyway. Silver and gold price as of today let's see how it goes. 

I lost badly on ARB.L (about 7k) and there was the POLY theft (about 6k).  Both hurt, both taught me lessons that I shared on here.

[Pip321]

12 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Sunak's a Hindu those two religions really do not get on well all the time..

 

 

Cheers, nice video (best one I have seen for a long time 👍🏻), I assume that was Prime Ministers question time? 😆

My view about religion is that it is like politics. It comes from a good place but then you put people in charge then it all turns to shit.🙏🏻

Edited March 2 by Pip321

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, ccc said:

I actually made money on Poly. I think I may be the only one. 

I'm just wondering if this whole hive mind winner thing is actually true or not. That's all. 

I've lost a decent amount of money on Polymetal and iShares Eastern Europe thanks to the Russian sanctions.

If Silver runs I should make it all back again and then some!

[Red Debt Redemption]

4 hours ago, ccc said:

I actually made money on Poly. I think I may be the only one. 

I'm just wondering if this whole hive mind winner thing is actually true or not. That's all. 

Poly's not done yet comrade. 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, ccc said:

I actually made money on Poly. I think I may be the only one. 

I'm just wondering if this whole hive mind winner thing is actually true or not. That's all. 

You will not find anywhere that road mapped things anywhere near as well as this thread over 5+ years.I dont think there is anyway anyone who followed since then can be down,there have been some losses,but nothing compared to multi bag winners.To be down you would have to be trading or bought all the bad and missed the many more good.The aim of the thread really is to outperform a 60/40 portfolio ie outperform everyone in normal pensions over the medium to long term.Asset allocation and timing etc is down to the individual.

A 60/40 fund is up 27% over 5 years before fees.So for most people around 19% after fees.In the same time my portfolio is up 68%.The one i manage for the kids,slightly more aggressive on that one with allocation is up 112%.

The mention of companies is really just part of the talk on who might gain from the cycle.

I wouldnt buy gold myself here,i see much better value in other areas.

Iv always found the biggest weakness in retail investors,myself included in the past,is fear of short term to medium term losses.Losses in areas do not bother me in the slightest now,as long as the macro is still in favour.

Instead of gold right now i would be buying Emerging Markets.

Edited March 2 by DurhamBorn

[jamtomorrow]

4 hours ago, ccc said:

I actually made money on Poly. I think I may be the only one. 

I'm just wondering if this whole hive mind winner thing is actually true or not. That's all. 

This is a great question for the thread - to what extent does survivorship bias play a part in our understanding of what "works"?

It's true that some posters do share their failures as well as their successes. But do all posters? And of the posters that do share, do they share successes and failures with the same propensity?

[jamtomorrow]

11 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Interesting article about non-doms from the telegraph:

Britain loses non-doms to Italy as Hunt plots tax crackdown

Plans afoot here aren't so much to end non-dom status, but to remodel it on Italian lines to a flat rate tax payment. This would save the richest money AIUI, while encouraging them to bring all their assets on-shore here. Allegedly the latest push from wealthy countries for tax-havens is for them to go to a  higher price and lower volume model, which this would fit with.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/britain-loses-non-doms-italy-183636867.html

Saw an interesting and perhaps worrying (for us) excerpt from this paywalled Bloomberg article (see tweet below): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/jeremy-hunt-turns-to-retail-investors-to-save-the-uk-market

Possible explanations:

- they're desperate for taxes they can fly under the radar, or else present as a public good, and they're just stepping on rakes at this stage

- these are the first steps towards capital controls (which I've been expecting). Perhaps they've been looking at the so-called Impossible Trinity and thinking about how that plays out in a full-blown currency crisis

[wherebee]

35 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Poly's not done yet comrade. 

it is if the cunts sold your positions out and then the consumer watchdog said that was OK

[Plan-b]

5 hours ago, ccc said:

I actually made money on Poly. I think I may be the only one. 

I'm just wondering if this whole hive mind winner thing is actually true or not. That's all. 

I lost money on both Poly and Gazprom after dumping them when the Ukraine kicked off.

Later I found some courage and did a one time risky short term trade on Poly and made money, not much research basis on any of it just gut feeling.

Swings and roundabouts.

Edit to add: Over all since 2020 nicely up.

Edited March 2 by Plan-b

[Pip321]

5 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I lost money on both Poly and Gazprom after dumping them when the Ukraine kicked off.

Later I found some courage and did a one time risky short term trade on Poly and made money, not much research basis on any of it just gut feeling.

Swings and roundabouts.

I hold Poly in AJ Bell SIPP so it’s trapped but I recon it’s a 50/50 call and hoping to get it back in 5/10 years.

However my Evraz was a teeny tiny punt for sport…..I basically bought at the bottom but rather than invest I worked out what say £10k would have been and then bought that many shares. So a stake of £600 ish which I never expect to see again. I lose (or gain) much more than that a day in general holding….so was less of an investment and more of a ‘where’s my yacht?’ 

[Red Debt Redemption]

Just now, Pip321 said:

I hold Poly in AJ Bell SIPP so it’s trapped but I recon it’s a 50/50 call and hoping to get it back in 5/10 years.

However my Evraz was a teeny tiny punt for sport…..I basically bought at the bottom but rather than invest I worked out what say £10k would have been and then bought that many shares. So a stake of £600 ish which I never expect to see again. I lose (or gain) much more than that a day in general holding….so was less of an investment and more of a ‘where’s my yacht?’ 

I did similar over multiple shares but more in Poly. Petropavlovsk went bust will see how the rest fare in time.

[Axeman123]

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

See DTM.

No weathy person has moved to Italy. Ever.

Any Italian with money lives elsewhere,

I think it is different for native tax cattle vs globally mobile high net worth individuals from overseas. Just like with jobs and women, with countries you have to switch about to get treated well. The Italian scheme allegedly had over 1300 applicants in 2021.

I have seen a few of this channels vids on YT:

They don't even quote a price, but I assume "if you have to ask, you can't afford it!" applies. It must be 8 figures though, and if they were marketing to Italians I wouldn't expect the video to be in English.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

 

How would this even work? Retroactive or only applying to investments after a certain date? And what about uk listed vehicles like investment trusts etc that hold a mixture of uk and foreign investments? This policy would be insane and an administrative nightmare.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Saw an interesting and perhaps worrying (for us) excerpt from this paywalled Bloomberg article (see tweet below): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-01/jeremy-hunt-turns-to-retail-investors-to-save-the-uk-market

Possible explanations:

- they're desperate for taxes they can fly under the radar, or else present as a public good, and they're just stepping on rakes at this stage

- these are the first steps towards capital controls (which I've been expecting). Perhaps they've been looking at the so-called Impossible Trinity and thinking about how that plays out in a full-blown currency crisis

As someone who expects a GBP currency crisis at some point capital controls are also on my mind recently.

The Bloomberg article lays it out and it's a bleak outlook for the UK. My own experience says that we've also experienced a level of deindustrialisation similar to Germany, but from a much lower starting point we just didn't have that much to start with so it's gone mostly unnoticed.

Arm taking it's listing to the US is the writing on the wall that and possible incompetent UK Gov meddling just lets the world see that the UK is mostly un-investable in my opinion.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Possible explanations:

- they're desperate for taxes they can fly under the radar, or else present as a public good, and they're just stepping on rakes at this stage

- these are the first steps towards capital controls (which I've been expecting). Perhaps they've been looking at the so-called Impossible Trinity and thinking about how that plays out in a full-blown currency crisis

IMO this is the problem with tax- advantaged/priviledged vehicles, including pensions, the rules can be changed. There is an arguement that ISAs tax status etc are at govt discretion, and that so long as people can withdraw to a standard brokerage account without penalty if they want to keep holding foreign shares this isn't inherrently unfair IMO. It is when pensions go the same way that people will be getting raped.

It would be interesting to see if UK firms own EM etc funds would be treated as overseas or not, my guess is no. It wouldn't be a surprise if a bung to donors* like that was snuck in under cover of investing in Britain. Also no surprise if the UK industry are happy at the prospect of installing themselves as a fund fee toll booth between investors and the most lucrative markets.

(*and future providers of non-executive director income to ex-MPs)

The above would certainly make future capital controls more effective.

[spygirl]

32 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I think it is different for native tax cattle vs globally mobile high net worth individuals from overseas. Just like with jobs and women, with countries you have to switch about to get treated well. The Italian scheme allegedly had over 1300 applicants in 2021.

I have seen a few of this channels vids on YT:

They don't even quote a price, but I assume "if you have to ask, you can't afford it!" applies. It must be 8 figures though, and if they were marketing to Italians I wouldn't expect the video to be in English.

The posh rich bit of Italy is the North.

If you are rich then you just move to Switzerland.

Again, noone rich moves to Italy.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/may/09/global-super-rich-head-to-italy-for-tax-breaks-and-dolce-vita

Italy rolled out the little-known incentive, which applies to the super-rich of all nationalities, in 2017. In exchange for paying an annual fee of €100,000 (£87,000), those who take up residency in the country are entirely exempt from paying tax on income generated overseas. The initiative also extends to family members for a yearly payment of €25,000 per person.

 

The measure, which was intended to boost big spending in Italy, whether it be on property or luxury brands, enticed 98 people in its first year before jumping to 549 by 2020 and more than doubling to 1,339 in 2021.

[Castlevania]

I hadn’t realised but yesterday was the all time high close for gold.

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, wherebee said:

I'm known, and worked with, some really good muslim folk who'd classify as genuine good souls.  But I'd still vote for anybody who promised to ban Islam from the whole of the west, no matter what their other policies were.

 

12 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Yes it is pure poison that comes in slow acting and fast acting packages.

Each time a muslim leader  has tried to drag their country into some form of modernity they always start with moving to secular.

Always.

Egypt.

Turkey.

Go back further and the likes  of Persia tried marginalising.

Both Nasser n Ataturk are still very popular (dead) leaders.

The core move of each of their governments were to put Islam in a box, push it out of politics and government.

Were they Islamaphobic?

Yep, cos they know from history that Islam has basically a self destruct switch.

There was a good comment posted last week. Something like -

People think that Islam is a medieval religion posing as modern religion.

Its not. Islam is a medical politics/governance system  posing as a religion.

 

 

 

[Shamone]

11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I recently switched from beer to cider, I am going down a rabbit hole with the stuff, plus nice pottery to drink it out of.

You will shit yerself soon, if you haven’t already.

[Bobthebuilder]

53 minutes ago, ccc said:

I think it's very real. Since last night and me asking the basics question there are more folk talking about poor share choices and losing money than I have read for ages. 

One thing we do not talk about much on here is dividend income, that has been my priority since the big gains of 2020. It can be a pain in the arse watching good divi payers fall over a period, and I am guilty of just holding on to stuff because of the income.

I am now taking divis as income for living expenses, never thought I would be doing that so soon after just 4 years, but it is still annoying at times.

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

How would this even work? Retroactive or only applying to investments after a certain date? And what about uk listed vehicles like investment trusts etc that hold a mixture of uk and foreign investments? This policy would be insane and an administrative nightmare.

That's never stopped them!

[jamtomorrow]

 

1 hour ago, Errol said:

How would this even work? Retroactive or only applying to investments after a certain date? And what about uk listed vehicles like investment trusts etc that hold a mixture of uk and foreign investments? This policy would be insane and an administrative nightmare.

You think that would stop them?

Remember the FCA already did it with crypto derivatives. Never mind the tax position, you're simply not allowed to buy a crypto ETF at retail within the UK regulatory perimeter.

With this latest kite flying, it looks like that was just the starters - the main course is yet to be served

[Errol]

49 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I hadn’t realised but yesterday was the all time high close for gold.

Keep up at the back!