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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)


spunko

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darkmarket

Just as a quick update, the BTCGBP arbitrage on Coinbase stayed above £200 all day yesterday, but is down to just below £100 at this point. Still odd, but it looks like Pounds are slowly being allowed to move, for now.

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Castlevania
6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like a buy soon. Be greedy when others are fearful etc.

Sibanye are developing a lithium project…

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Red Debt Redemption
8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Almost certain governments will fudge it to hybrids with very low emissions wont they.That will mean high level cats and PGMs having a very big bull market.Us low lifes down here of course can keep buying Sibanye here or lower and just wait.Iv 4x them before,could we 7x or 10x them next time?,maybe.

EVs will be big of course,but i think mostly small,local journey things.Popping to the shops etc.If Toyota crack hydrogen as they are trying to Platinum might go vertical.

Sibanye the only one you are buying?

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Transistor Man
17 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Sibanye the only one you are buying?

Anglo American for the same reasons, Platinum palladium. 
 

 

Edited by Transistor Man
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One percent
3 minutes ago, Mouse said:

Yes those that pay their way and do the right thing are always penalised for doing so! Pensions, utility bills, insurance, council tax, the list is endless 😡

Best to be an alcoholic scratter.  Im half way there.  xD

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Castlevania
20 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Sibanye the only one you are buying?

I bought some Implats to mix things up. 

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DurhamBorn
20 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Sibanye the only one you are buying?

At the moment yes.Im not going big on the area though as im more invested for income these days,but i might add others if there is a capitulation.

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3 hours ago, King Penda said:

Octopus energy have done something similar they are trying to get people via bribes to use less energy at peak times 

I've switched to an EV tarrif for the work PHEV (company pays me fuel rate in return, 16p a mile). Charge at night as well as put the dish washer and dehumidifier on turbo laundry mode. 4h of 9p electric in the night. What's not to like? Well except for the requirement for a smart meter...

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Just on labour. Anything going through a production process with high labour component so food chains, processed food etc looking at +9% increase year on year. Doubt there’s the productivity growth but probably some product redesign. Also applies at the end retail. Actually more I think for end retailer let’s say +10%. So Bailey’s wait and see who gets elected approach is unlikely to work. He’s banking on energy really I think, What think we will see is inflation fall back and then start to ramp up sharply again. I know the media keep talking about rate cuts but I don’t see it. Firms still are confident in raising prices. 

This is not advice.

 

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One percent
1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly what im seeing.Bailey is an idiot.Secondary inflation wave is baked in and it will be superb watching them all squirm.It will be very very difficult for even us to keep ahead,but real assets etc will hopefully give us the edge.Of course the next wve will see bennies and public sector pensions go up even more and this time i think housing equity will be the victim.The UK is in a shocking position.Iv said before,but as things stand there are no escape valves because all the none productive are inflation linked,so they will take all saved labour,and housing equity.Gilts will need to pay higher coupons,so mortgages will turn higher.The story of the cycle when people look back,outside of the polos being horrific will be the none producing stealing everything from the producing.

Everyone needs to learn to cook,as it will be much cheaper.4 x 8oz Rump Steaks are £10 in Iceland Food Warehouse, £9 if i take my dad along on a Tuesday.People are paying that for 1 carb and veg oil loaded fish and chips.

You’re joking right.  It’s about twelve quid here. Take out.  O.o

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Eventually Right
38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly what im seeing.Bailey is an idiot.Secondary inflation wave is baked in and it will be superb watching them all squirm.It will be very very difficult for even us to keep ahead,but real assets etc will hopefully give us the edge.Of course the next wave will see bennies and public sector pensions go up even more and this time i think housing equity will be the victim.The UK is in a shocking position.Iv said before,but as things stand there are no escape valves because all the none productive are inflation linked,so they will take all saved labour,and housing equity.Gilts will need to pay higher coupons,so mortgages will turn higher.The story of the cycle when people look back,outside of the polos being horrific will be the none producing stealing everything from the producing.

Everyone needs to learn to cook,as it will be much cheaper.4 x 8oz Rump Steaks are £10 in Iceland Food Warehouse, £9 if i take my dad along on a Tuesday.People are paying that for 1 carb and veg oil loaded fish and chips.

I think I remember you saying you thought the end of this year might be a decent time to buy a house DB-have your views changed?

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DurhamBorn
46 minutes ago, One percent said:

You’re joking right.  It’s about twelve quid here. Take out.  O.o

I know and the Fish and Chips are shit in Whitby ,Silverstreet used to be ok,but the rest way over rated,the Chinaman near me whos daughter has bullet nips are much nicer ,£8.50,the fish and chips not her nips.

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Noallegiance
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly what im seeing.Bailey is an idiot.Secondary inflation wave is baked in and it will be superb watching them all squirm.It will be very very difficult for even us to keep ahead,but real assets etc will hopefully give us the edge.Of course the next wave will see bennies and public sector pensions go up even more and this time i think housing equity will be the victim.The UK is in a shocking position.Iv said before,but as things stand there are no escape valves because all the none productive are inflation linked,so they will take all saved labour,and housing equity.Gilts will need to pay higher coupons,so mortgages will turn higher.The story of the cycle when people look back,outside of the polos being horrific will be the none producing stealing everything from the producing.

Everyone needs to learn to cook,as it will be much cheaper.4 x 8oz Rump Steaks are £10 in Iceland Food Warehouse, £9 if i take my dad along on a Tuesday.People are paying that for 1 carb and veg oil loaded fish and chips.

Would you mind clarifying how increased state spending and taxation in the scenario facing us sucks housing equity out from under people's noses? Given the state of things we must surely be in for quite marked falls in prices, but what's the mechanism that links the two?

People aren't going to realise what's happening and will (along with media assistance) blame the wrong thing(s). Again.

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