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201p

Forecasts for Bitcoin (and any other blockchains) for December 2018

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Well, it either has to go up or go down -- there is no model where its value just hangs around $15k for the next 10 years.

Upside -- It is a classic compound inflation curve (albeit due to inflation in demand).  It'll just keep going up until people start using it for transactions.  I'd say $25k looks good for Jan, $50k for about late spring, $200k for EoY.  

Downside -- this is what I find interesting.  Once you've got rid of the simple speculators you're left with a hardcore of believers.  These won't sell (no matter how sensible) and will keep buying (no matter how futile).  I'd put this supply/demand at about $1k-2k, but it really could be much lower.  This (lower) would happen if something came about to remove their faith -- Dunno what, but, eg, Satoshi selling would hit quite hard (I have this personal theory that he has actually lost the keys to those vast early blocks, but says he'll never sell to give confidence to the movement).

I'll not sit on the fence though -- I think the futures have been anticipated and that the entire moves since summer (and before) have been largely manipulation.  I think we'll see a significant crash starting on about the 10th and completing at the end of the month.  Given current prices and the way these things go I think it'll get to <$4k and could hit <$1k.  This sounds fanciful, but everything in Bitcoin is fanciful.

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A period of pullback, over Xmas new year, then 20k end of Q1 2018. I sold the high now back in at 11k, effectively doubling my no of coins. One year of dabbling has seen effectively x10 portfolio growth in fiat terms. 

Ripple I can see hitting 2$ on this run, when I will bank to btc. Ether 1k, litecoin I can't see going anywhere now Lee has dumped. Eos is a moonshot play, it'll get the lambo or go to zero.

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BTC at $8k 

ETH at $12k 

 

OMG and GNT are the only other coins I care about, I don't hold any of the former but might move some ETH into OMG. Sold my MNE at a 40% loss but still not too bad given the mod seems to be non-existent now.

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2 hours ago, Bkkandrew said:

Sub $1K for Bitcoin as people realise its functionless for transactions, due to the tech having theoretical limit of 11/second.

Mastercard peaks at 25,000/second.

Could be significant support at the cost of mining each individual crypto. Look at it this way - you are heavily into crypto and mining and presumably you know how much it is cost of acquisition - therefore if market value falls below actual cost to mine wouldn't you  just switch to buying in the market rather than spend on electricity to run the mining gear? 

 

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4 hours ago, onlyme said:

Could be significant support at the cost of mining each individual crypto. Look at it this way - you are heavily into crypto and mining and presumably you know how much the cost of acquisition is - therefore if market value falls below actual cost to mine wouldn't you  just switch to buying in the market rather than spend on electricity to run the mining gear? 

 

 

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