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House prices under a Labour government - what will happen?


Mandalorian

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Mandalorian

What do we think will happen to house prices under a Labour government?

In both real and nominal terms.

Let's say they last a full 5 year term - where will prices be at the end?  And why?

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Bornagain
2 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

What do we think will happen to house prices under a Labour government?

In both real and nominal terms.

Let's say they last a full 5 year term - where will prices be at the end?  And why?

Very interesting question.

If the hard left sack Starmer and seize the levers of power then the pound is going down the shitter and hence anything priced in pounds will increase in price, but remain stable when compared to a hard currency.

If Labour were to actually succeed in radically increasing house building then in the long term the value of houses would fall as supply meets demand.

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Mandalorian
6 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

Very interesting question.

If the hard left sack Starmer and seize the levers of power

Doubt this will happen.  they never sacked Blair and it's (a far as I know) the same process in place.

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Axeman123

Restating a theory I am developing: Muslims have priced themselves out of being a cheap bloc vote for the left over Gazza, and are going to be replaced by the young.

Once they are in a Labour government would have no interest in prolonging the house price bubble, which is really a boomer benefit, and would solely target increased home ownership by their new voting demographic. They wouldn't want a crash due to the implied economic instability, but likely would embrace sustained falls.

If the Tories are to be the pantomime-villain boomer-party in opposition labour could even turn against help-to-buy and celebrate price declines bringing more supply to market etc. Maybe the black hole they intend to find after the election to justify changes to taxes that weren't in the manifesto will be HTB?

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Mandalorian
31 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Restating a theory I am developing: Muslims have priced themselves out of being a cheap bloc vote for the left over Gazza, and are going to be replaced by the young.

Once they are in a Labour government would have no interest in prolonging the house price bubble, which is really a boomer benefit, and would solely target increased home ownership by their new voting demographic. They wouldn't want a crash due to the implied economic instability, but likely would embrace sustained falls.

If the Tories are to be the pantomime-villain boomer-party in opposition labour could even turn against help-to-buy and celebrate price declines bringing more supply to market etc. Maybe the black hole they intend to find after the election to justify changes to taxes that weren't in the manifesto will be HTB?

I've often thought as the balance shifts from owner (old) to renter (young) MPs that the thinking would change and then they'd want lower prices.

Then I realised they are MPs and will get a fat wad of expenses to buy a second house at taxpayer expense. So don't think it will make that much difference.

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swiss_democracy_for_all

Some slightly naive suggestions so far IMO.

Labour leadership will be just as much in thrall to the banks as the Tories, the idea of them embracing a house price crash and selling it as a new start for the young, nah, won't happen. Well -  unless a WEF billionaire (non-banker) secretly undertakes to fund the Labour party for the next 20 years first and the young start voting in massive numbers (to offset the older voters that would be lost by a house price crash). 

Also even if Labour increase house building, unless they were to shut the immigration door, which obviously they won't, they'd never be able to build enough to compensate for 1 million+ extra people a year.

The one thing that could kill off immigration might be conscription of all new fighting-age arrivals into a war with Russia - doubt that would happen though, they're more likely to be put up in hotels while indigenous kids are sent off to die. 

 

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Frank Hovis
1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

I've often thought as the balance shifts from owner (old) to renter (young) MPs that the thinking would change and then they'd want lower prices.

Then I realised they are MPs and will get a fat wad of expenses to buy a second house at taxpayer expense. So don't think it will make that much difference.

 

There are also journalists.

Scroll back fifteen years and a lot of them were into BtLs or just owning a property in London and you have a lot of house prices rising being great news stories.

Over the last ten years though there have been a steady run of priced out / high house prices are bad stories because the young journalists are paying high rents and unable to buy.

And journalism affects the public mood.

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Mandalorian
57 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

There are also journalists.

Scroll back fifteen years and a lot of them were into BtLs or just owning a property in London and you have a lot of house prices rising being great news stories.

Over the last ten years though there have been a steady run of priced out / high house prices are bad stories because the young journalists are paying high rents and unable to buy.

And journalism affects the public mood.

Let's hope so.  I want a better house in a 'non-enriched' area.

This place is going to the dogs.

Kind of house I like where I like it is about £300k.  I'd pay £250k.

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Frank Hovis
9 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Kind of house I like where I like it is about £300k.  I'd pay £250k.

 

Unless you're going for an unusual or project house though where it is hard to shift you aren't going to be allowed to make that decision, there will be a clear market price, which is the £300k, and you either pay that or no house.

I'm not fishing but if you could afford the extra £50k and it gives you all the security of a house you like in an area you like then why would you not just do this?

I'm not saying that rent is dead money, I rented for many years, but rather why are you putting part of yoru life on hold for £50k?

 

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Joncrete Cungle
6 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Unless you're going for an unusual or project house though where it is hard to shift you aren't going to be allowed to make that decision, there will be a clear market price, which is the £300k, and you either pay that or no house.

I'm not fishing but if you could afford the extra £50k and it gives you all the security of a house you like in an area you like then why would you not just do this?

I'm not saying that rent is dead money, I rented for many years, but rather why are you putting part of yoru life on hold for £50k?

 

The £250k price would avoid paying stamp duty for starters.

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Mandalorian
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Unless you're going for an unusual or project house though where it is hard to shift you aren't going to be allowed to make that decision, there will be a clear market price, which is the £300k, and you either pay that or no house.

I'm not fishing but if you could afford the extra £50k and it gives you all the security of a house you like in an area you like then why would you not just do this?

I'm not saying that rent is dead money, I rented for many years, but rather why are you putting part of yoru life on hold for £50k?

 

Cos £50k is a wad of cash and if prices fell 6 months after I bought then.....

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Posted (edited)

If anything the pound will crash and physical assets (houses included) will maintain value. 

Weimar wallpaper anyone ?

EDIT: I wasted years waiting for a crash which never really materialised, bought and despite shit fundamentals, it's still up 25% nominally. In essence though, the £ is massively down so quid pro quo. 

Edited by TNS
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Frank Hovis
5 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Cos £50k is a wad of cash and if prices fell 6 months after I bought then.....

 

Hmm..

Maybe I should call in @JoeDavola as he was previously like this.

Your point isn't wrong but I would say two things:

Is it really likely to happen, interest rates are already up to (the low end of) long term norms?

As long as you aren't buying it with an eye-watering mortgage which will keep you awake at night then having your own home (usually) brings you some peace of mind by resolving an issue that has been on your mind for some time.

 

As a supplementary having my own house, with space, and knowing that I was not going to move again for a long time, opened the door to hobbies which required kit, and allowed me to do long term stuff that you wouldn't do in a rental - put up solar panels, replace the railings, put in new carpets and so on. All making it my place rather than someone else's.

 

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3 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Hmm..

Maybe I should call in @JoeDavola as he was previously like this.

Your point isn't wrong but I would say two things:

Is it really likely to happen, interest rates are already up to (the low end of) long term norms?

As long as you aren't buying it with an eye-watering mortgage which will keep you awake at night then having your own home (usually) brings you some peace of mind by resolving an issue that has been on your mind for some time.

 

As a supplementary having my own house, with space, and knowing that I was not going to move again for a long time, opened the door to hobbies which required kit, and allowed me to do long term stuff that you wouldn't do in a rental - put up solar panels, replace the railings, put in new carpets and so on. All making it my place rather than someone else's.

 

This was my thinking in the end, do i want to buy in my >50s having wasted my life when i could have bought, made it my own, etc.

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Frank Hovis
4 minutes ago, TNS said:

This was my thinking in the end, do i want to buy in my >50s having wasted my life when i could have bought, made it my own, etc.

 

Yes, just that.

As long as you are financially crippling yourself by buying, then it brings peace of mind and you are no longer wasting mental effort on trying to predict the housing market.

Once you have a house it doesn't much matter whether prices go up or down, you still have your house.

 

What better way do you have to spend that £50k @Mandalorian?

 

I can't offhand think of anything for which I would want to pay £50k, I don't want a £50k car or a £50k watch.

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5 years.  Average uk and wales, nominal up.  Adjusted for inflation, no change +/- 5%.   But, huge regional/local variance based on how close a property is to "good" schools or un-mortgageable BTL Muslim shit pits.

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Mandalorian
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Hmm..

Maybe I should call in @JoeDavola as he was previously like this.

Your point isn't wrong but I would say two things:

Is it really likely to happen, interest rates are already up to (the low end of) long term norms?

As long as you aren't buying it with an eye-watering mortgage which will keep you awake at night then having your own home (usually) brings you some peace of mind by resolving an issue that has been on your mind for some time.

 

As a supplementary having my own house, with space, and knowing that I was not going to move again for a long time, opened the door to hobbies which required kit, and allowed me to do long term stuff that you wouldn't do in a rental - put up solar panels, replace the railings, put in new carpets and so on. All making it my place rather than someone else's.

 

I don't know if it's likely to happen or not.  But I do suspect there is a big pile of shit coming down the pipe, economy wise that is.  Shrieking about interest rates normalising isn't over yet and there are plenty to still come off their low rates and become forced sellers.  Higher IRs haven't yet worked their way through.  So there's that.

I also expect Labour to cock things up massively fairly quickly.

But who knows?

 

I already have a house I effectively inherited.  It's not worth a lot and it's in an area that has, shall we say, changed a lot since I lived here as a kid.  Basically "import the Third World and become the Third World".  I feel like a foreigner in my own neighbourhood.

I could buy a place for cash.  but that feels painful by having to sell some of my shares etc.  But then again, what are they for?

Or I could sell a smaller amount and just have a sub £100k mortgage or something.  Inflation would wipe that out fairly quickly.

 

The main thing is I don't feel I belong here any more.  This area is not full of 'people like me'.

 

 

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

 

 

What better way do you have to spend that £50k @Mandalorian?

 

 

Leave it invested and let it compound over the next 20 years.

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Ash4781b

It will be similar policies as suggested upthread. It will Help to buy type loans and low house building volumes and missed targets.

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JoeDavola
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Hmm..

Maybe I should call in @JoeDavola as he was previously like this.

Your point isn't wrong but I would say two things:

Is it really likely to happen, interest rates are already up to (the low end of) long term norms?

As long as you aren't buying it with an eye-watering mortgage which will keep you awake at night then having your own home (usually) brings you some peace of mind by resolving an issue that has been on your mind for some time.

Yes I am more convinced than ever that the crash in ££ is never coming, not where I am anyway which I admit is cheaper than much of the UK.

What I do know is that the ££ in the bank is worth less every year.

If you can easily afford the house at today's IR's, and it's somewhere you'd enjoy living then buying a house can't really be that bad a decision, especially if you're buying outright or almost outright.

The alternative is to put your money in the stock market and hope that the stock market rises faster than house prices plus the cost of renting, which is a gamble.

Main thing is if you do buy a house you can then stop fucking thinking about houses and house prices.

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Frank Hovis
11 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes I am more convinced than ever that the crash in ££ is never coming, not where I am anyway which I admit is cheaper than much of the UK.

What I do know is that the ££ in the bank is worth less every year.

If you can easily afford the house at today's IR's, and it's somewhere you'd enjoy living then buying a house can't really be that bad a decision, especially if you're buying outright or almost outright.

The alternative is to put your money in the stock market and hope that the stock market rises faster than house prices plus the cost of renting, which is a gamble.

Main thing is if you do buy a house you can then stop fucking thinking about houses and house prices.

 

Beautifully expressed.

32 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

The main thing is I don't feel I belong here any more.  This area is not full of 'people like me'.

 

That alone is worth paying £50k to leave IMHO.

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JoeDavola
2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Beautifully expressed.

...a better form of expression would be me actually buying a fucking house eh ;)

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spunko
3 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Let's hope so.  I want a better house in a 'non-enriched' area.

This place is going to the dogs.

Kind of house I like where I like it is about £300k.  I'd pay £250k.

But isnt that the problem. If house prices fall to the level most want on here, all of these nice unaffordable areas are going to be overrun with New Britons.

I'm torn , I really don't know if I want a mega crash.

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Mandalorian
4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Beautifully expressed.

 

That alone is worth paying £50k to leave IMHO.

£300k...

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Frank Hovis
1 minute ago, Mandalorian said:

£300k...

 

You anyway think that it's worth £250k.

The £50k is simply the "I don't want to live amongst ethnics" premium.

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Mandalorian
1 minute ago, spunko said:

But isnt that the problem. If house prices fall to the level most want on here, all of these nice unaffordable areas are going to be overrun with New Britons.

I'm torn , I really don't know if I want a mega crash.

Not sure they will be.

They can't afford the cheapo places (not that cheap houses exist). 

A 2 up, 2 down terrace near me is £150k.  A New Briton can't afford that so they pile into HMOs. 

If 2up2downs drop to say £90k then maybe they can. 

My £300k would drop to £220k.  I could buy it.  They still couldn't.

Just now, Frank Hovis said:

 

You anyway think that it's worth £250k.

The £50k is simply the "I don't want to live amongst ethnics" premium.

No no.  The £250-300k is the premium.

The other option is to pay nothing and stay put but as the only native British man in the street.

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