• Welcome to DOSBODS

    Please consider creating a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

Dipsy

Death of the taxi driver?

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Dipsy said:

The list of jobs we need immigrants for is endless:

Halal chicken takeaway assistant
£6 buzz-cut barbers
Nail Bar technician
Phone Unlocking Specialist
Spray Tan operator
Thai Massage parlour therapist

Edited by Austin Allegro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Austin Allegro said:

The list of jobs we need immigrants for is endless:

Without millions of hard working immigrants our wonderful health service would collapse.

We need more immigrants for this alone, never mind other things.

Our NHS is the jewel in the crown of our country.

Support open borders, support unlimited immigration, support our NHS.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GM bringing out self driving production car by 2019 - Level 4. It is all coming much quicker than expected. Same in many ways as electric cars - 2/3 years ago it seemed all the major manufacturers had their thumbs up their arses, they much have been keeping their powder dry and developing the background or doing the deals to sign up / check potential suppliers. 

Key player Nvidia and their Drive platform for Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous vehicles. 

46 mins in - 30 Tera ops, 300W and about the size of an small ATX board. These boards are new - 2 weeks since first prototypes in and they have already got the whole software stack running on it, quite phenomenal.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The article cites trials in parts of the US where the technology has been tested.

It also states that Uber plan to launch the service in some of the cities where the trials took place and that only some journeys will be undertaken by driverless cars.

Which would presumably be the journeys that cover the routes which are suited to driverless cars. So, on wide, major American roads and a limited selection of routes.

The idea that we'll get driverless cars on London's streets in 18 months, or at any point in the foreseeable future, does not strike me as credible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DTMark said:

The article cites trials in parts of the US where the technology has been tested.

It also states that Uber plan to launch the service in some of the cities where the trials took place and that only some journeys will be undertaken by driverless cars.

Which would presumably be the journeys that cover the routes which are suited to driverless cars. So, on wide, major American roads and a limited selection of routes.

The idea that we'll get driverless cars on London's streets in 18 months, or at any point in the foreseeable future, does not strike me as credible.

Depends on the pace of progress of the underlying technology, it is screaming along at the moment, combine that with AI to learn from all gathered data and I think it is easy to underestimate quite how powerful/intelligent single goal systems can be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, DTMark said:

The article cites trials in parts of the US where the technology has been tested.

It also states that Uber plan to launch the service in some of the cities where the trials took place and that only some journeys will be undertaken by driverless cars.

Which would presumably be the journeys that cover the routes which are suited to driverless cars. So, on wide, major American roads and a limited selection of routes.

The idea that we'll get driverless cars on London's streets in 18 months, or at any point in the foreseeable future, does not strike me as credible.

Exactly.

On single track roads meeting someone coming the other way:

  • If you have just passed a passing space then you reverse if you're both cars, or if they have they reverse. Sometimes a conversation is required (which I initiate and is always polite).
  • If there is more than one car the other way then you reverse unless there amore cars your way; if similar numbers then back to conversation
  • If the other driver is clearly a nervous / poor / elderly driver than you reverse
  • If the other vehicle will have difficulty reversing (lorry, big van) then you reverse

Programme that etiquette and then programme it for two driverless cars meeting.

It won't work; driverless cars are only feasible on certain set routes and then will be stuffed if that route is closed for some reason.

 

I view them as a type of small driverless bus running set routes but at the times you pick; maybe they'll just replace the buses.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Depends on the pace of progress of the underlying technology, it is screaming along at the moment, combine that with AI to learn from all gathered data and I think it is easy to underestimate quite how powerful/intelligent single goal systems can be.

Unless AI can reach the levels of intelligence required for driving a car in every conceivable situation in the UK, I can't see that it will work. 

What is more likely to happen is that road systems will evolve to fit driverless cars, rather than the other way around. 

So we will perhaps start to see driverless car lanes on motorways, which will be closely monitored and perhaps closed off to other traffic, in the same way tram routes are in some continental cities. Or perhaps other closed systems such as city ring roads will be dedicated entirely to driverless cars. 

Essentially this is what happened with manually driven cars anyway. The motorway is a road designed entirely for high speed motor traffic, and required an act of Parliament for it to be created as it was so different from the concept of a road under common law. 

Edited by Austin Allegro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know a car wash engineer.  Not a great job, but it takes quite a bit of training and expertise.  He does something else now.

The low cost of labour that comes from high numbers of low-skilled workers kills the high tech solution.

It is a large part of the reason why we've got poor productivity in the UK (the impact of the financial sector is the other).  I don't see that we'll have cost effective self-driving cars any time soon.

Now truck drivers -- that's where you see the benefits of self-driving tech.  Each tractor/trailer could do twice the miles if the driver gets to sleep during the relatively simple motorway parts of the journey.  Twice the miles = faster roi.  And the higher capex for trucks makes the cost of self-driving tech easier to absorb.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

vandals will have a field day with driverless cars, throwing rocks at them, putting hazards in their way etc

Driverless lorries will be of great interest to some of our foreign guests at Calais...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, dgul said:

Now truck drivers -- that's where you see the benefits of self-driving tech.

Yes, prostitutes and hitch-hikers will be much safer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When someone demonstrates a driverless car that can turn right successfully at any junction in mid-town Manhattan I'll start to believe they're a real thing rather than marketing fluff. My guess is that they'll be "18 months away" for at least the next 18 years. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

Unless AI can reach the levels of intelligence required for driving a car in every conceivable situation in the UK, I can't see that it will work. 

 Take out exceptions - for example the single track road scenario requiring planning / courtesy and I think the tech is pretty much lined up, given an interaction or or and training on sufficient data (which will be growing at an exponential rate as the cars with all the necessary inputs get rolled out.  To get around the single track / courtesy issue - that could be corralled as a special case and then a system trained up to reproduce the desired autonomous behaviour, learning the basics from lots of data and past history of what real drivers do in those situations, probably combined with additional detailed mapping/visual data. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It won't be 18 months until we get this in the UK but I think the technology will develop quicker than anticipated. I'm not sure how I feel about it - I like driving my own cars, public transport, I would feel safer in a taxi without a driver frankly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

vandals will have a field day with driverless cars, throwing rocks at them, putting hazards in their way etc

IMO there'll be a fantastic development of 'ways to muck with the driving algorithms'.  I'll start with Running onto the road, then stopping, pretending to throw babies (dolls) onto the road, runaway pushchairs, etc.  But I bet they'll work out some freakishly good methods.

This short-story is a good read if you've got the time:

http://this.deakin.edu.au/lifestyle/car-wars

Quote

...

Some of the cars were the new ones with the sticky stuff on the hood that kept the people they ran down from being thrown clear or tossed under the wheels – instead, they stuck fast and screamed as the cars tore down the narrow streets. It was the kind of thing that you needed a special note from your parents to get to see in social studies. Luckily my mom is cool like that. Or unlucky, because of nightmares, but it was better to be awake than asleep. It was real, so it was something I needed to know about.

...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, onlyme said:

 Take out exceptions - for example the single track road scenario requiring planning / courtesy and I think the tech is pretty much lined up, given an interaction or or and training on sufficient data (which will be growing at an exponential rate as the cars with all the necessary inputs get rolled out.  To get around the single track / courtesy issue - that could be corralled as a special case and then a system trained up to reproduce the desired autonomous behaviour, learning the basics from lots of data and past history of what real drivers do in those situations, probably combined with additional detailed mapping/visual data. 

Theoretically possible, just not probable. 

A good example which links back to a short discussion on another thread about women drivers not letting you out at junctions, my theory being some women drivers lack confidence in a car (not all, not even a majority but many). 

In the scenario you mention, I as a driver will be making seemingly illogical actions based on subtle context. Often I will put myself at a disadvantage because I can see the other driver is incapable of making the correct decision or incapable of moving their car in a suitable manner. I will be reversing up a lane even though it would be far easier for the other person to take a small insignificant action. It doesn't even need to be a country lane, there are loads of snag points on my way home from work, a short journey of 5 miles where this is the case. 

If anything, and the video above shows it very early on, it will be easy for a meat based driving system to bully AI cars to the point of impracticability. 

---- 

The running theme with these discussions isn't that the naysayers are Luddites, we have no doubt that whats possible is fantastic, but we can see numerous instances when we drive where decisions made are not logical in a computational sense. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, gilf said:

Theoretically possible, just not probable. 

A good example which links back to a short discussion on another thread about women drivers not letting you out at junctions, my theory being some women drivers lack confidence in a car (not all, not even a majority but many). 

In the scenario you mention, I as a driver will be making seemingly illogical actions based on subtle context. Often I will put myself at a disadvantage because I can see the other driver is incapable of making the correct decision or incapable of moving their car in a suitable manner. I will be reversing up a lane even though it would be far easier for the other person to take a small insignificant action. It doesn't even need to be a country lane, there are loads of snag points on my way home from work, a short journey of 5 miles where this is the case. 

If anything, and the video above shows it very early on, it will be easy for a meat based driving system to bully AI cars to the point of impracticability. 

---- 

The running theme with these discussions isn't that the naysayers are Luddites, we have no doubt that whats possible is fantastic, but we can see numerous instances when we drive where decisions made are not logical in a computational sense. 

 

A classic example are those overseas guests in Cork who were recently shown obstructing motor traffic by lying across car bonnets etc while giggling with amazement that they weren't being shot dead, run over or beaten senseless as they would be in their home countries. I suggested on another thread that the way to deal with that would be to accelerate quickly then make an emergency stop. A driverless car, however, would probably just beep, flash a light and say 'obstruction in bagging area' or some such. If the 'guest' was about to detonate a bomb vest, the car is unlikely to be able to perceive this as a threat and would just sit there until your unwanted passenger decided to meet his 72 virgins. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

The list of jobs we need immigrants for is endless:

Halal chicken takeaway assistant
£6 buzz-cut barbers
Nail Bar technician
Phone Unlocking Specialist
Spray Tan operator
Thai Massage parlour therapist

+ the local Kosovan car wash. We've had machines that can do this for years but they're crap. I much prefer my car to be cleaned by a modern day slave who will contract Raynaud's syndrome and various zoonoses. Hey at least they're working!

 

They may living under a bridge/seven in a bed and be terrified of the gangmaster who beats the shit out of them, but it's better for them than living in Romania surely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Austin Allegro said:

The list of jobs we need immigrants for is endless:

Halal chicken takeaway assistant
£6 buzz-cut barbers
Nail Bar technician
Phone Unlocking Specialist
Spray Tan operator
Thai Massage parlour therapist

Car washing.
I've never understood why there are so many hand jobs places <grins> compared to machine places.

And I am not talking about this https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4131258/worlds-first-brothel-staffed-entirely-by-robot-sex-workers-now-looking-for-investors-to-go-global/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, sarahbell said:

Car washing.
I've never understood why there are so many hand jobs places <grins> compared to machine places.

And I am not talking about this https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4131258/worlds-first-brothel-staffed-entirely-by-robot-sex-workers-now-looking-for-investors-to-go-global/

Hilarious article - like something out of Viz comic!

I particularly chuckled at the video of 'Harmony'. As far as I can tell it would be like having sex with Lady Penelope out of Thunderbirds. 

'Yes...milady....'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

Car washing.
I've never understood why there are so many hand jobs places <grins> compared to machine places.

And I am not talking about this https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4131258/worlds-first-brothel-staffed-entirely-by-robot-sex-workers-now-looking-for-investors-to-go-global/

The way the machines clean the car isn't great for paint work. Many company car contracts will forbid you from using car washing machines. 

Equally it's a cheap business to get up and running, requires minimal skill etc

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, sarahbell said:

I've never understood why there are so many hand jobs places <grins> compared to machine places.

With the automated car wash you have to go to get a token from the checkout, queue up (at least around here there is always queue), sit in the car while its washed - all takes my time. Manual car wash done while I'm doing the shopping - more efficient use of my time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The caustic soda stuff that the Kosovans use is going to fuck your car's paint up too, but it probably won't have any effect during the 2-4 years that you own it, it'll be the the next keeper or the one after that I suspect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Similar Content

    • By Frank Hovis
      Who's going to jail then?
      The human monitor, the programmer, the car?
      Uber said it is suspending self-driving car tests in all North American cities after a fatal accident.
      A 49-year-old woman was hit by a car and killed as she crossed the street in Tempe, Arizona.
      While self-driving cars have been involved in multiple accidents, it is thought to be the first time a self-driving car has been involved in a fatal pedestrian collision.
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43459156
    • By The Masked Tulip
      Transport for London has revoked the UBER licence from 30th September.
       
       
      Guido Fawkes saying that TFL informed UBER of its decision one minute before it tweeted out the above.
    • By Chewing Grass
      Noticed that Uber are going all out advertising on TV and Radio. TV adverts for hip customers and Radio ads for drivers. 'You can work when you want' etc, as they continue their war on private hire and black cab operators.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.