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TheBlueCat

Where Next For GBP

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Despite all the hand wringing, GBP is only off about 10-15% against the main currencies since the referendum. On the one hand, there's still uncertainty about what kind of deal we'll make with the EU and markets hate uncertainty. On the other hand, the economy is doing well vs. the economies of those other countries, the balance of payments deficit is falling, inflation is growing (meaning higher interest rates eventually) and hedge funds are unwinding their short positions gradually, all of which points to a strengthening pound. Given that. I'm considering moving a material chunk of CAD into GBP in anticipation of moving back to the UK in a few years when I retire and I'm starting to think that now may be the time to do it.

Any FX knowledgeable people on here think that's a daft idea?

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Well that's gone rather bonkers since you started this thread! Amusingly enough, this thread prompted me to put a trade on at around 0945 this morning, and soon after it dropped dramatically, then just after 11 went totally apeshit the other way. I only play with small amounts for a laugh so whack my leverage up. Seen 40% gains today!

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Yep, totally mental! I've been a stock and bond investor for 25 years now and I think I'm pretty good at it (well, my long term returns are decent) but I've never touched FX other than as a side effect of having other investments denominated in foreign currencies. This just reinforces that decision.

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41 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

Yep, totally mental! I've been a stock and bond investor for 25 years now and I think I'm pretty good at it (well, my long term returns are decent) but I've never touched FX other than as a side effect of having other investments denominated in foreign currencies. This just reinforces that decision.

Worst is central bank intervention - pretty much everything telegraphed apart from such interventions and unexpected news. Japan in particular have been massive manipulators of their own currency.

Way to play it I think is to look for these exceptional points in time, wait for first reaction post news and then trade the reaction - safer and some big moves available. I'm no trader though.

 

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On 23/04/2017 at 16:26, blobloblob said:

Although she won't win the 2nd round anyway, will a stronger-than-expected 1st round showing for Le Pen cause any issue for the Euro?

Yes, would have done I expect - same way that a clear win for Macron has made it gain a few cents.

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