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davidg

French Presidential Election

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French Presidential Election is coming up, here are the main runners and riders

Marine Le Pen: Front National candidate. Anti EU, Anti Euro. Broadly state socialist economic policy. Embroiled in an investigation in taking EU money to fund her party. Currently sitting at around 25% in the polls and expected to go through to the second round of the election process. Expect to get around 40% in a run-off.

François Fillon: Center right candidate. Former prime minister Has proposed a set of policies to liberalize the French economy. Refered to as Thatcherite. Originally seen as Mr Clean support has collapses following a series of scandals. Currently being investigated on a series of fraud and corruption charges. Polling around 18%. Has been in politics for 30 years.

Emmanuel Macron. Prodigy of current president François Hollande. Enarque and Rothschilds banker, has dabbled in a number of jobs. Married to his former school teacher. Macron positions himself as an "outsider" with a set of policies similar to Blair's third way. Pump up the economy and spend the proceeds on social issues. Currently polling around 25% in the polls and expected to make the second round and win by 60%. A bit of an establishment / media creation. Running a supposed "grass roots" campaign. Recently got support from Center politician  François Bayrou who had backed Hollande in 2012. Scandals include attribution of a contract while Socialist Economics minster without tendering and falsifying tax return. Backed by a number of current Socialist party politicians. Pro Euro, Pro EU.

Benoit Hamon: Socialist Party candidate - same as outgoing president Hollande. Won the primary. Big policy is the introduction of a citizens income, however the implementation has been confused. He suggested 650 euros for every current benefit claimant (some unemployed people receive 6700 euros / month in unemployment benefit) but has backtracked on this as it would add 400 billion to the current French state expenditure. Has recently proposed the CI for anyone earning less than 2200 euros / month. Polling around 10% and on a downward trajectory. Open borders. Pro EU.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Partie de Gauche. Left wing firebrand. Anti EU but believes in reform as part of a socialist international, Anti Nato. Good debater. Economic policies similar to Marine le Pen without the anti immigrant baggage. Wags have suggested they form an alliance. On an upward trajectory in the polls. Currently at around 12%.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. Biggest of the smaller candidates. Polling around 4% - has doubled his score after protesting at being excluded from the first presidential debate but it is not thought he can poll more than 5% (which would allow him to recover his election costs). He is gaullist and anti EU and anti Euro.

Polling suggests that Le Pen will make the second round with Macron, Fillon and Mélenchon (in that order) being the second candidate.

Russia previously backed Fillon but has decided he is dead and are now throwing their support behind Le Pen. Russian intelligence suggests that scandals that have rocked the Fillon camp have come from Macron's team from information supplied by the intelligence services via current defence minister and Macron supporter Le Drian. A recent book by Le Canard enchaîné journalists suggest Hollande runs a "black cabinet" to coordinate campaigns against political rivals.

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I've got a small bet on Mme Le Pen winning, when was 5/1. I see she's now 2/1 even though every single MSM outlet kindly reminds me she's "very unlikely to win".

Saying that, Geert Wilders was the heavy favourite with Oddschecker for weeks but look what happened there.

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24 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

I've got a small bet on Mme Le Pen winning, when was 5/1. I see she's now 2/1 even though every single MSM outlet kindly reminds me she's "very unlikely to win".

Saying that, Geert Wilders was the heavy favourite with Oddschecker for weeks but look what happened there.

Yes I thought Wilders would win or at least do much better than he did. As he said though, he's not going away!

Very interesting summary of French election candidates davidg. Thank you 🙂

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Not strictly about the presidential election, but I thought it might be interesting - France is debating a "Molière Law" that would impose the use of the French language on public building projects.

The issue is that subcontractors bring in whole teams of foreign EU workers for a few months (just the length of the project), this raises 2 issues:

  1. Communication, especially of safety instructions.
  2. A fear that these foreign workers are treated like semi-slave labor, paid peanuts, but they don't complain as otherwise they'd lose their job.

The whole thing is pretty controversial - the 'for' and the 'against' are most definitely not split on clean right wing/left wing lines. It's already been implemented by some "regions" in France, but there's various legal challenges going on (including at the EU level).

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4 minutes ago, DeepLurker said:

Not strictly about the presidential election, but I thought it might be interesting - France is debating a "Molière Law" that would impose the use of the French language on public building projects.

The issue is that subcontractors bring in whole teams of foreign EU workers for a few months (just the length of the project), this raises 2 issues:

  1. Communication, especially of safety instructions.
  2. A fear that these foreign workers are treated like semi-slave labor, paid peanuts, but they don't complain as otherwise they'd lose their job.

The whole thing is pretty controversial - the 'for' and the 'against' are most definitely not split on clean right wing/left wing lines. It's already been implemented by some "regions" in France, but there's various legal challenges going on (including at the EU level).

Merde !

 

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20 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

I've got a small bet on Mme Le Pen winning, when was 5/1. I see she's now 2/1 even though every single MSM outlet kindly reminds me she's "very unlikely to win".

Saying that, Geert Wilders was the heavy favourite with Oddschecker for weeks but look what happened there.

People forget Wilders Party actually increased its number of seats in the Dutch Parliament while the new government leaders party lost 20% of their representatives.

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5 minutes ago, Flirtygirty said:

People forget Wilders Party actually increased its number of seats in the Dutch Parliament while the new government leaders party lost 20% of their representatives.

This is correct. Also, PVV was the 3rd largest but is now the 2nd largest party. There was a massive media effort to portray him as the likely winner purely, in my view, to create the story that he 'lost' the election, even though he was never going to win.

Macron's already home and dry in the French election isn't he?

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1 hour ago, This Time said:

Le Pen's campaign headquarters have been attacked. People getting worried that she might be in with a chance?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/13/marine-le-pen-campaign-hq-hit-arson-attack/

Government backed groups being used to disrupt le Pen meetings all over France.

Current polling has the four front runners within a margin of error of each other around the 20/22% mark with the minnows, including the "Official" Socialist candidate Hamon, picking up the rest.

The Socialists have a backup candidate in the form of Macron, they hope to regroup around him after the election.

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2 hours ago, This Time said:

Le Pen's campaign headquarters have been attacked. People getting worried that she might be in with a chance?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/04/13/marine-le-pen-campaign-hq-hit-arson-attack/

Given the obvious amateurish nature of the attack (they vandalised the *building* where she has her headquarters... but not the headquarters) I'd bet on some random far-left student. Of which France has a fair number. Shit-for-brains hotheads.

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On 25/03/2017 at 21:44, Guest said:

If Mme Le Pen doesn't win, you may as well kiss goodbye to France.


As someone has pointed out elsewhere, then we are probably all doomed. Unless we forcibly evict people from the country, then there's no stopping them.

Cos no one is brave enough to reduce benefits to the level where people work or go elsewhere.

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Looks like bookface is upholding the integrity of the french elections by deleting accounts it unilaterally views as deceptive and popular.

I imagine this is similar to the EU saying you can't have a political party that is anti-EU and declaring any such activity as deceptive.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The company said Thursday it’s trying to “reduce the spread of material generated through inauthentic activity, including spam, misinformation, or other deceptive content that is often shared by creators of fake accounts.”

It said its efforts “enabled us to take action” against the French accounts and that it is removing sites with the highest traffic.

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French interior ministry is preparing for a Le Pen / Mélenchon second round. All police leave cancelled etc. They have internal polling that is generally very accurate. Nothing wrong with being prepared but shows that the "threat" is being taken seriously.

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2 minutes ago, davidg said:

French interior ministry is preparing for a Le Pen / Mélenchon second round. All police leave cancelled etc. They have internal polling that is generally very accurate. Nothing wrong with being prepared but shows that the "threat" is being taken seriously.

You are suspiciously French, young trumpeting rabbit.O.o

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On 26/03/2017 at 18:43, DeepLurker said:

Not strictly about the presidential election, but I thought it might be interesting - France is debating a "Molière Law" that would impose the use of the French language on public building projects.

The issue is that subcontractors bring in whole teams of foreign EU workers for a few months (just the length of the project), this raises 2 issues:

  1. Communication, especially of safety instructions.
  2. A fear that these foreign workers are treated like semi-slave labor, paid peanuts, but they don't complain as otherwise they'd lose their job.

The whole thing is pretty controversial - the 'for' and the 'against' are most definitely not split on clean right wing/left wing lines. It's already been implemented by some "regions" in France, but there's various legal challenges going on (including at the EU level).

Same in the UK.

Fckedup EU scam that allows a big company to drop an entire EE team on a contract, working EE pay and conditions. Theres a waste recovery plant on Teesside that s doing this.

And people winder why boro voted out of Eu.

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1 hour ago, davidg said:

French interior ministry is preparing for a Le Pen / Mélenchon second round. All police leave cancelled etc. They have internal polling that is generally very accurate. Nothing wrong with being prepared but shows that the "threat" is being taken seriously.

If that is the outcome, the next round is going to be really interesting! Put either of those candidates up against some vaguely moderate person and people will hold their noses and vote for them (the moderate that is). Against each other though and it's a real contest.

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Fckedup EU scam that allows a big company to drop an entire EE team on a contract, working EE pay and conditions. Theres a waste recovery plant on Teesside that s doing this.

Any links for that?

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14 minutes ago, TheBlueCat said:

If that is the outcome, the next round is going to be really interesting! Put either of those candidates up against some vaguely moderate person and people will hold their noses and vote for them (the moderate that is). Against each other though and it's a real contest.

Any links for that?

http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/sita-site-braced-biggest-protest-10031536

It took me a while work out what the protest was about.

The Unions garbled it.

Basically large vompany abusing the EU scheme.

Theres been no support from Labour or the Union bosses on thus. Its insane.

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Just as happened in the Dutch election, their chances are being talked up now so that when they don't win, it can be painted as a 'defeat'.

Neither Le Pen nor Melenchon have ever been serious contenders in this election but when both parties win lots more MPs in the national assembly it will be important to block that out from the public's perception by shouting 'defeat' loudly, over and over again.

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1 hour ago, blobloblob said:

Just as happened in the Dutch election, their chances are being talked up now so that when they don't win, it can be painted as a 'defeat'.

Neither Le Pen nor Melenchon have ever been serious contenders in this election but when both parties win lots more MPs in the national assembly it will be important to block that out from the public's perception by shouting 'defeat' loudly, over and over again.

I dunno about that - see my post above. Middle of the road French voters aren't warming to Macron. 

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Can someone explain how your country's economy can be decimated by foreign rule, your children are slaughtered in nightclubs by Islamic scum, your country is full of no go zones - yet you can convince yourself that voting for more of the same is going to change things?

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1 hour ago, spunko2010 said:

Can someone explain how your country's economy can be decimated by foreign rule, your children are slaughtered in nightclubs by Islamic scum, your country is full of no go zones - yet you can convince yourself that voting for more of the same is going to change things?

One possible explanation:

In the UK lots (most?) people are "doing all right Jack" thanks to HPI; the economy might be fucked, Brussels sets the rules, whole towns are becoming 'no-go zones'... but as long as my house is making ££££ every month we don't care :)

In France there's a kind-of-similar situation where the older generation have got excellent job security - in fact whole armies are employed by the public sector and are un-firable - and they will not rock the boat. The young are getting a raw deal (hence why there's an estimated 300k in London) but they don't have enough numbers to upset the apple cart yet.

Although it's noticeable that the firebrands Jean-Luc Mélenchon & Marine Le Pen are both polling around 20%. So 40% of the electorate are voting against "more of the same" ;)

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