London house prices drop by up to 15% in a year

[spunko]

5 hours ago, One percent said:

And I think we will find that a lot of people have been swimming naked when this particular tide goes out.  That place is empty. So it is completely unproductive.  Either died, moved away or been repossessed.  Either way, it must be costing a significant amount of money to keep it empty.  and all the while, the fabric is deteriorating. 

Or it's their second/country home. Wouldn't surprise me for round here. 

[One percent]

1 minute ago, spunko2010 said:

Or it's their second/country home. Wouldn't surprise me for round here. 

.  Rich I tell ye, rich.....

[spunko]

6 hours ago, One percent said:

.  Rich I tell ye, rich.....

 The Cornish whinge but Londoners are driving up prices everywhere 

[sarahbell]

On 09/05/2018 at 16:12, spunko2010 said:

From £3.5m to £1.95m today.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-53407248.html

Did the previous price show furniture in the place?

[spunko]

Just now, sarahbell said:

Did the previous price show furniture in the place?

Yes IIRC, I think they moved out at some point between then and now.

I don't think it's a repo because they have to put those UNTESTED labels on the toilet and white goods, and the sales method doesn't say so either.

[sleepwello'nights]

Well a house I was interested in has gone SSTC four days after it was listed. So much for the market slowing down!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

A house near me that I have no interest in, because of the insane asking price, has sat on the market for 12 months now.

[Hail the Tripod]

On 10/05/2018 at 16:08, One percent said:

.  Rich I tell ye, rich.....

Properly rich people wouldn't even notice. A friend of mine did some work at Harrods, while he was there they had accidentally billed the wrong people for several (£100k each) grand pianos they had sold. All the invoices had been paid without being queried. I don't know how rich you have to be to pay £100k invoice for a grand piano without thinking "Hey, I don't remember buying that" but there are no shortage of people who have that kind of wealth.  

[Frank Hovis]

On 10/05/2018 at 22:34, spunko2010 said:

 The Cornish whinge but Londoners are driving up prices everywhere 

They are indeed.

I don't know if anyone knows the area but somehow Rock / Polzeath on the north Cornwall coast acquired some kind of cachet with posh SE types (it's perfectly nice but nothing special, there are a dozen similar coastal areas in Cornwall) and I saw a totally unremarkable bungalow there on sale for two to three times the price anywhere else in Cornwall.

Nobody local would pay that premium because they know that they can buy similar for half the price but somebody from the SE buying a holiday home: got to be Rock / Polzeath.

It's the most fragile of markets because the premium is entirely down to sentiment; as soon as it becomes "uncool" then that sentiment evaporates and that's on top of any underlying falls.

I know someone who got caught in a similar way with a luxury apartment in a north Australian posh resort; it became no longer the place to go and he's holding onto it because he can't bear to sell it for half of what he paid for it.

[One percent]

39 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

They are indeed.

I don't know if anyone knows the area but somehow Rock / Polzeath on the north Cornwall coast acquired some kind of cachet with posh SE types (it's perfectly nice but nothing special, there are a dozen similar coastal areas in Cornwall) and I saw a totally unremarkable bungalow there on sale for two to three times the price anywhere else in Cornwall.

Nobody local would pay that premium because they know that they can buy similar for half the price but somebody from the SE buying a holiday home: got to be Rock / Polzeath.

It's the most fragile of markets because the premium is entirely down to sentiment; as soon as it becomes "uncool" then that sentiment evaporates and that's on top of any underlying falls.

I know someone who got caught in a similar way with a luxury apartment in a north Australian posh resort; it became no longer the place to go and he's holding onto it because he can't bear to sell it for half of what he paid for it.

Not exactly somewhere you can go to for the weekend. Tulips spring to mind 

[sleepwello'nights]

42 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I know someone who got caught in a similar way with a luxury apartment in a north Australian posh resort; it became no longer the place to go and he's holding onto it because he can't bear to sell it for half of what he paid for it.

Ah, a long term investment.

[swiss_democracy_for_all]

42 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

They are indeed.

I don't know if anyone knows the area but somehow Rock / Polzeath on the north Cornwall coast acquired some kind of cachet with posh SE types (it's perfectly nice but nothing special, there are a dozen similar coastal areas in Cornwall) and I saw a totally unremarkable bungalow there on sale for two to three times the price anywhere else in Cornwall.

Nobody local would pay that premium because they know that they can buy similar for half the price but somebody from the SE buying a holiday home: got to be Rock / Polzeath.

It's the most fragile of markets because the premium is entirely down to sentiment; as soon as it becomes "uncool" then that sentiment evaporates and that's on top of any underlying falls.

I know someone who got caught in a similar way with a luxury apartment in a north Australian posh resort; it became no longer the place to go and he's holding onto it because he can't bear to sell it for half of what he paid for it.

I've been surfing at Polzeath a few times. Before the property madness. Nice, but really not special. I think some posh kids had a good drugged-up beach weekend or two there, posted pics and tales on social media, and boom, the rocket took off...

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, One percent said:

Not exactly somewhere you can go to for the weekend. Tulips spring to mind 

I  see that I missed out a key piece of information there: they are Australian.

1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Ah, a long term investment.

Which seems to be the underlying idea behind the "you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar"; wait long enough and the nominal value will have risen above what you paid for it through the simple effect of inflation.   This however applies to pretty much every material thing including tinned baked beans.

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

I've been surfing at Polzeath a few times. Before the property madness. Nice, but really not special. I think some posh kids had a good drugged-up beach weekend or two there, posted pics and tales on social media, and boom, the rocket took off...

Spot on.

I'm not slating it, it's a nice area, but very much nothing special for Devon and Cornwall.  Certainly there is nothing inherent to justify the vast premium over other coastal areas.  

[Hail the Tripod]

On 17/05/2018 at 09:35, Frank Hovis said:

Spot on.

I'm not slating it, it's a nice area, but very much nothing special for Devon and Cornwall.  Certainly there is nothing inherent to justify the vast premium over other coastal areas.  

I worked in “The Mariners” in Rock for a couple of summers in the mid 90s. It has been Knightsbridge on sea for a loooong time. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

London house prices, even with 0.5% IRs, heading down.

 

How low they will go is anyones guess

 

 

If it's 3 years of falls in London....can you imagine the joy in the shires

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/london-home-price-falls-to-continue-for-next-three-years-survey

 

London Home Price Declines Seen Continuing for Next Three Years

 

 

[Hail the Tripod]

On 17/05/2018 at 09:35, Frank Hovis said:

Spot on.

I'm not slating it, it's a nice area, but very much nothing special for Devon and Cornwall.  Certainly there is nothing inherent to justify the vast premium over other coastal areas.  

Well you could say that about anywhere really. Rock has the yacht club, a really good golf course, both a sheltered estuary for watersports. It is conveniently accessible to decent surf beach at Polzeath, and a Michelin starred restaurant in Padstow. Most importantly you can let your teenagers go out on the lash without worrying they'll come across anyone who isn't "PLU" (people like us), an initialisation I'd never come across before I worked there.

[Frank Hovis]

21 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

Well you could say that about anywhere really. Rock has the yacht club, a really good golf course, both a sheltered estuary for watersports. It is conveniently accessible to decent surf beach at Polzeath, and a Michelin starred restaurant in Padstow. Most importantly you can let your teenagers go out on the lash without worrying they'll come across anyone who isn't "PLU" (people like us), an initialisation I'd never come across before I worked there.

You can say most of that and in some respects better of Bude, Newquay, Perranporth, St Ives, Penzance, Falmouth, Fowey, and Looe plus several places in Devon.

[Hail the Tripod]

1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

You can say most of that and in some respects better of Bude, Newquay, Perranporth, St Ives, Penzance, Falmouth, Fowey, and Looe plus several places in Devon.

Newquay and Penzance are full of working class oiks, Falmouth and St Ives also have a significant premium. Don't know the others particularly.

[satch]

19 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

London house prices, even with 0.5% IRs, heading down.

 

How low they will go is anyones guess

 

 

If it's 3 years of falls in London....can you imagine the joy in the shires

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/london-home-price-falls-to-continue-for-next-three-years-survey

 

London Home Price Declines Seen Continuing for Next Three Years

 

 

They are reporting falls over the three year  period of up to 10 or 15% so around 3 or 5% per year, nothing really when prices have risen by 40% in the last four years and a fall of 30% would tale us back to 2014 prices ... still bubbletastic. Average prices in London (from the article) are £500,000. So even of you sell now and buy back in after the fall ... let's say a fall of 20% you will probably spend the 45k on rent with 20k on sdlt and fees (when you buy back in) and so make 35k plus whatever the opportunity of having £500,000 allows. If falls are only (the article say up to) 10% then the 50k benefit disappears on rent and fees but you still have the opportunity gains from the £500k. Will they be taxed to high heaven - doubt it, confiscated - no chance, requisitioned - when hell freezes over. But as many here actually recognise there are no real financial gains from owning, the soft benefits are not having to move and not having to pay rent and not having inspections as if you were seven years old and being able to put up pictures, decorate and smoke and have pets.

We bought four  years ago for cash and have gained financially as the return on cash did not / would not cover the rent, probably because I am crap at investing capital to gain both capital growth and income. However even as a home owner  I would like prices to fall (50% would be nice) so I can buy a better place at a cheaper price but the benefits of buying have been the soft benefits above. Ten years on from 2008 and we finally have some falls in London ... of 10 or 15 % over 3 years predicted, when in many areas over this period price went up by 100%.

[Caravan Monster]

Haven't payed much attention to sold prices in my area (northants) for a while because it is so far out of my reach there's no point, but was shocked by two recent sold prices of £260k for smallest semi detached bungalow in village with barely any garden and £460k for 4 bed bungalow on decent plot. Most of the local work is in warehousing and distribution so wages are not high, but there are still mongs from london coming here to over pay having sold £1m shitholes in the capital, so hopefully London declines will be reflected here.

[MrPin]

Canadians should not work banks. All they are interested in is moose pelts, and pretending to be French.

[Thorn]

On 24/05/2018 at 10:45, satch said:

They are reporting falls over the three year  period of up to 10 or 15% so around 3 or 5% per year, nothing really when prices have risen by 40% in the last four years and a fall of 30% would tale us back to 2014 prices ... still bubbletastic. Average prices in London (from the article) are £500,000. So even of you sell now and buy back in after the fall ... let's say a fall of 20% you will probably spend the 45k on rent with 20k on sdlt and fees (when you buy back in) and so make 35k plus whatever the opportunity of having £500,000 allows. If falls are only (the article say up to) 10% then the 50k benefit disappears on rent and fees but you still have the opportunity gains from the £500k. Will they be taxed to high heaven - doubt it, confiscated - no chance, requisitioned - when hell freezes over. But as many here actually recognise there are no real financial gains from owning, the soft benefits are not having to move and not having to pay rent and not having inspections as if you were seven years old and being able to put up pictures, decorate and smoke and have pets.

We bought four  years ago for cash and have gained financially as the return on cash did not / would not cover the rent, probably because I am crap at investing capital to gain both capital growth and income. However even as a home owner  I would like prices to fall (50% would be nice) so I can buy a better place at a cheaper price but the benefits of buying have been the soft benefits above. Ten years on from 2008 and we finally have some falls in London ... of 10 or 15 % over 3 years predicted, when in many areas over this period price went up by 100%.

Rises and falls not the same on way up and down.

Just to say if a 100k house goes up by 100% it is now at 200k.

If a 200k House goes down only 50% it’s back down to 100k.

[spunko]

On 14/03/2018 at 15:05, TheCountOfNowhere said:

And it's lying empty !!!

The owners most probably are the bankers.

There is an update on this property, they have become accidental landlords after being unable to sell presumably.

http://www.jackson-stops.co.uk/cgi-bin/properties/summary-details.pl?propID=75973

[One percent]

17 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

There is an update on this property, they have become accidental landlords after being unable to sell presumably.

http://www.jackson-stops.co.uk/cgi-bin/properties/summary-details.pl?propID=75973

Be interesting to see if it gets rented. It’s not bad (I know, I know) as round by me, a three bed semi is 2k.