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Frank Hovis

Saudi oil reserves - good news!

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The reserve figures are secret these days, especially with the partial sale of Aramco coming up, and are commonly believed to be overstated as they're not going down: new finds magically replace extracted oil.

But there have been no new big finds since the 1970s.  So that seems "unlikely".

Current claimed reserves are roughly at the level of 1989 - 260bn barrels - but that was a huge hike upon the 1987 figure of 170bn of easily recoverable oil and suggests the inclusion of probable / possible reserves.

So going back to that 1987 figure as the last undisputed figure and bearing in mind no big new finds since start deducting the c. 10m barrels a day production, 3.65bn per year.

Thirty years' extraction to 2017 is 109.5bn of that 1987 reserve.  The remaining 60.5bn will last a mere 16.5 years which isn't very long at all.

Now there will be unders and overs: improved extraction techniques Vs sea water contamination of fields from previous extraction techniques which will blur this figure.

So that 16.5 may be 20 years or it may be 15.  Either way it's not long.

Then it's back to being goat herders and no more funding the export of islam and islamic terrorism.

Not long now :)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-kemp/saudi-arabias-oil-reserves-how-big-are-they-really-kemp-idUSKCN0ZL1X6

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Read an article 12 months ago where the Yemenis are accusing the Saudis of stealing 65% of their oil reserves by hprizontal drilling and their 'war' against the Houthis.

This would obviously be a way of 'offsetting' or cloaking the demise of their own fields.

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1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

Read an article 12 months ago where the Yemenis are accusing the Saudis of stealing 65% of their oil reserves by hprizontal drilling

They need to be careful; it was exactly this that got Mr. Burns shot in The Simpsons. 

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2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Read an article 12 months ago where the Yemenis are accusing the Saudis of stealing 65% of their oil reserves by hprizontal drilling and their 'war' against the Houthis.

This would obviously be a way of 'offsetting' or cloaking the demise of their own fields.

 

I thought the Yemen had bugger all oil, hence the economic problems it has had for decades?

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9 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

I thought the Yemen had bugger all oil, hence the economic problems it has had for decades?

Read it here and it wouldn't surprise me as oilfields dont stop at lines drawn on a map.

Saudi Arabia Stealing 65% of Yemen's Oil in Collaboration with Total

https://ahtribune.com/world/north-africa-south-west-asia/war-on-yemen/1537-saudi-arabia-yemen-oil-total.html

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When I read the headline for this thread, my heart leapt with hope that the fuckers had run dry! As I waited for it to load, I felt a swell of excitement that I haven’t experienced in years. Then I read the OP. 20 more years of them funding goat fuckers to come here..... oh well:(

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2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Then it's back to being goat herders and no more funding the export of islam and islamic terrorism.

Or they'll head to Europe as economic migrants

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The ability of the middle east to keep pumping oil is less to do with how much of it is in the ground and more to do with how long they can avoid lobbing nuclear bombs at one another.

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Not sure why everyone thinks the Saudi oil boom is going to end badly without affecting Europe and the UK. Them not having infinite money flowing in is good, but I'd guess their elite will just decamp with the remaining billions and dump the other 32 million on the rest of the world. That won't be pretty.

 

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5 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

The reserve figures are secret these days, especially with the partial sale of Aramco coming up, and are commonly believed to be overstated as they're not going down: new finds magically replace extracted oil.

But there have been no new big finds since the 1970s.  So that seems "unlikely".

Current claimed reserves are roughly at the level of 1989 - 260bn barrels - but that was a huge hike upon the 1987 figure of 170bn of easily recoverable oil and suggests the inclusion of probable / possible reserves.

So going back to that 1987 figure as the last undisputed figure and bearing in mind no big new finds since start deducting the c. 10m barrels a day production, 3.65bn per year.

Thirty years' extraction to 2017 is 109.5bn of that 1987 reserve.  The remaining 60.5bn will last a mere 16.5 years which isn't very long at all.

Now there will be unders and overs: improved extraction techniques Vs sea water contamination of fields from previous extraction techniques which will blur this figure.

So that 16.5 may be 20 years or it may be 15.  Either way it's not long.

Then it's back to being goat herders and no more funding the export of islam and islamic terrorism.

Not long now :)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-kemp/saudi-arabias-oil-reserves-how-big-are-they-really-kemp-idUSKCN0ZL1X6

Those numbers resonate with the current claw back of money that has found it`s way to the select prince`s  ...time to tighten the belts maybe 

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5 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

The reserve figures are secret these days, especially with the partial sale of Aramco coming up, and are commonly believed to be overstated as they're not going down: new finds magically replace extracted oil.

But there have been no new big finds since the 1970s.  So that seems "unlikely".

Current claimed reserves are roughly at the level of 1989 - 260bn barrels - but that was a huge hike upon the 1987 figure of 170bn of easily recoverable oil and suggests the inclusion of probable / possible reserves.

So going back to that 1987 figure as the last undisputed figure and bearing in mind no big new finds since start deducting the c. 10m barrels a day production, 3.65bn per year.

Thirty years' extraction to 2017 is 109.5bn of that 1987 reserve.  The remaining 60.5bn will last a mere 16.5 years which isn't very long at all.

Now there will be unders and overs: improved extraction techniques Vs sea water contamination of fields from previous extraction techniques which will blur this figure.

So that 16.5 may be 20 years or it may be 15.  Either way it's not long.

Then it's back to being goat herders and no more funding the export of islam and islamic terrorism.

Not long now :)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-oil-kemp/saudi-arabias-oil-reserves-how-big-are-they-really-kemp-idUSKCN0ZL1X6

There was a quiet panic going on when I was there from 2010 - 2012. They had found moderate amounts of gas over on the Red Sea coastal Plain but fook all oil which is what they need to export. The gas helps because it reduces the amount of oil needed for power generation. 

related to this Saudi is just about to plonk $200bn into Solar. Assuming that buys 200GW of solar that should generate approx 300TWH of electricity. 

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Solar will be great for Saudi and I don't just mean by virtue of the weather conditions. Once the solar parks are built by foreign engineers and labourers guarding them will provide work that is suitable for most Saudis - driving and security. 

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I think my estimate of fifteen years is looking spot on!

War between Saudi Arabia and Iran may happen in just 10-15yrs – Crown Prince

De-facto Saudi leader Crown Prince Bin Salman has warned that Riyadh may go to war with regional nemesis Iran in the next 10-15 years if the international community fails to apply more sanctions pressure on Tehran.

https://www.rt.com/news/422748-saudi-war-iran-interview/

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2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think my estimate of fifteen years is looking spot on!

War between Saudi Arabia and Iran may happen in just 10-15yrs – Crown Prince

De-facto Saudi leader Crown Prince Bin Salman has warned that Riyadh may go to war with regional nemesis Iran in the next 10-15 years if the international community fails to apply more sanctions pressure on Tehran.

https://www.rt.com/news/422748-saudi-war-iran-interview/

Unless the US wade in on the side of Saudi they’ll get whipped. Expensive whiz-bangs can only take you so far, the Iranians are in another class as a culture and would get any weapons they can’t make from Russia. Very bad idea. 

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11 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

Unless the US wade in on the side of Saudi they’ll get whipped. Expensive whiz-bangs can only take you so far, the Iranians are in another class as a culture and would get any weapons they can’t make from Russia. Very bad idea. 

I agree but I'm not a crown prince spending billions on arms and surrounded by sycophants.

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22 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think my estimate of fifteen years is looking spot on!

War between Saudi Arabia and Iran may happen in just 10-15yrs – Crown Prince

De-facto Saudi leader Crown Prince Bin Salman has warned that Riyadh may go to war with regional nemesis Iran in the next 10-15 years if the international community fails to apply more sanctions pressure on Tehran.

https://www.rt.com/news/422748-saudi-war-iran-interview/

 

If you believe the latest ZH story it could be any minute now.

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