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20 minutes ago, dgul said:

There was no discussion about getting out, other than a simple 'it is very liquid; you just instruct a sale to occur'.  But no-one was thinking about exiting, they were all ready for the explosion in value to occur...

One of the best ones was the guy that had displays about bitcoin value in his house, and had told everyone he was going to exit as a millionaire next year.

It's such a shame really. BTC was founded on principles that are alien to what is going on now. It'll crash and burn and put the entire crypto movement back by 5 years. 

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1 minute ago, spunko2010 said:

It's such a shame really. BTC was founded on principles that are alien to what is going on now. It'll crash and burn and put the entire crypto movement back by 5 years. 

I agree.  It is like the dotcom boom -- there was a tangible thing in the background, but everything went mad.  

I suppose the solid investment opportunity comes later.  The interesting thing is how long the current boom will continue...

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I suppose you could say that Bitcoin was kick started by the 10000 BTC pizza. 

If that person had never bought that pizza it would never have jumped in value the way it did.

But now the plan is to HODL and do nothing with it. And this is basically because it's an open secret to everyone in crypto that if you want to send any money you never do it using BTC.

I can't see it ending well, even if it does go to 500k before then.

I personally don't think any of these exchanges like coinbase have enough fiat combined to cash out even 10% of that market cap.

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2 hours ago, Bakez said:

CME derivatives will allow Bitcoin exchanges to run fractional reserve and then cover their positions with derivative/future positions.

They'll say they're not doing it, but will do it anyway...

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There's an interesting piece in the FT:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12/07/2196554/the-smartest-bitcoin-trade-in-town/

As a summary -- they say the futures market is being front-run, and they'll collapse it as soon as it makes sense.

It is certainly interesting.  I guess we'll see.

[I do see an almost religious dogma in those holding Bitcoin -- it will change the world and they'll exit as millionaires (and exiting with £100k profit isn't enough).  I think they'll ride it all the way up and then all the way down.  But there is this strange thing about the dogma -- presumably, we could be at 21million, all strongly held, and with the price at £1billion per coin set at a tiny number of trades.]

[the other interesting thing is the sheer volume in bitcoin trading.  Seeing as a decent proportion are lost and everyone I know is holding, I can only think that someone out there is creating false transactions.  This would almost certainly be a mining group as they can set their own bitcoin transaction fees at zero if they want.  Strange things going on, for sure]

Edited by dgul

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5 hours ago, Bakez said:

CME derivatives will allow Bitcoin exchanges to run fractional reserve and then cover their positions with derivative/future positions.

The root of all evil.

Posted on the other thread.

 

 

Just cant believe this rise, anyone selling on Sunday before the CBOT futures start? Im tempted.

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19 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

The root of all evil.

Posted on the other thread.

 

 

Just cant believe this rise, anyone selling on Sunday before the CBOT futures start? Im tempted.

If I can be set up to sell by then, then I'll certainly sell some. I'm currently waiting for coinbase to validate my bank account.

I seem to recall @spunko2010 mentioning earlier in the thread how getting set up to sell is a bit of a faff. He's not wrong.

The relative ease of buying over selling will probably be a factor that pushes this top over the edge into a manic collapse. If you're not already set up to sell, then you can't sell for days after you make the call to sell.

A lot of people will be sweating.

o.O

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4 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

If I can be set up to sell by then, then I'll certainly sell some. I'm currently waiting for coinbase to validate my bank account.

I seem to recall @spunko2010 mentioning earlier in the thread how getting set up to sell is a bit of a faff. He's not wrong.

The relative ease of buying over selling will probably be a factor that pushes this top over the edge into a manic collapse. If you're not already set up to sell, then you can't sell for days after you make the call to sell.

A lot of people will be sweating.

o.O

Coinbase are bastards. I found replying to the ticket every 12 hours helped to get a reply.

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9 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

If I can be set up to sell by then, then I'll certainly sell some. I'm currently waiting for coinbase to validate my bank account.

I seem to recall @spunko2010 mentioning earlier in the thread how getting set up to sell is a bit of a faff. He's not wrong.

The relative ease of buying over selling will probably be a factor that pushes this top over the edge into a manic collapse. If you're not already set up to sell, then you can't sell for days after you make the call to sell.

A lot of people will be sweating.

o.O

What about when you are set up to sell? Presumably it's a liquid market and a fast transaction at that point?

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My intention was to use a Goldmoney account to swap directly for gold - however they still haven't validated my application after nearly 3 weeks. A full account would allow swapping between gold and btc with I think a 2.5% spread each way.

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6 minutes ago, Kilham said:

My intention was to use a Goldmoney account to swap directly for gold - however they still haven't validated my application after nearly 3 weeks. A full account would allow swapping between gold and btc with I think a 2.5% spread each way.

I've already got a goldmoney account from back in the day. I emptied it out years ago, but it still seems to be active.

I've just logged in to see if I can use that, and they're asking for all my documents all over again to verify the account.

Bastards! :PissedOff:

1 hour ago, Fully Detached said:

What about when you are set up to sell? Presumably it's a liquid market and a fast transaction at that point?

I'll let you know, as soon as I manage to get access to a platform that will let me sell them.

:PissedOff:

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Yep, they've been 'upgrading' and trying to move everyone into their new Holding accounts. I have what is now called a GM 'personal' account which allows you to sell but not buy, for that you now have to apply for the full account which is taking ages. The plan was to try and increase the small amount I have by swapping in and out of gold.

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The best thing to assume is that whatever money you put into crypto is lost.

Even if you hold 500k GBP in it, getting it out at all is going to be a challenge and it's probably guaranteed to lose close to 10% in fees on whatever method you chose. 

One thing I'm pretty sure of is that if enough people try to cash out in coinbase in a short period they will literally run out of cash and have to stop withdrawals

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3 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Kraken are totally hopeless. It usually takes 10 try to get an order executed on a sunday. On another other day, you might as well forget it, usually cant even logon.

How can it be anything but the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. I've yet to hear any explanation that convinces me otherwise.

Has the number of bitcoins created ceased? If it has then there has to be a seller for each buyer, therefore someone is cashing in, if not where are the receipts going?

 

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16 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

How can it be anything but the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. I've yet to hear any explanation that convinces me otherwise.

This is what concerns me! It might go to the moon, but at its current level I'd be quite upset to lose what it is supposedly worth. I'm taking some profits before Sunday.

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1 hour ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

This is what concerns me! It might go to the moon, but at its current level I'd be quite upset to lose what it is supposedly worth. I'm taking some profits before Sunday.

Some sort of cryptocurrency is going to win out as the dominant store of value. Whether that turns out to be bitcoin is anyone's guess. 

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36 minutes ago, whitevanman said:

Some sort of cryptocurrency is going to win out as the dominant store of value. Whether that turns out to be bitcoin is anyone's guess. 

My prediction is that bitcoin is being manipulated.  

At the point where it suits the manipulators (around 18th Dec, perhaps) it'll be dumped.

There'll be such revulsion about losing money on bitcoin that it'll put people off crypto for years.

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

How can it be anything but the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. I've yet to hear any explanation that convinces me otherwise.

Has the number of bitcoins created ceased? If it has then there has to be a seller for each buyer, therefore someone is cashing in, if not where are the receipts going?

Remember, there hasn't actually been gazillions put into bitcoin to give it the $250bln market cap.  The value is set at the margin.  The problem is, if someone big dumps then there won't be the residual demand to support the price.  And once it starts dumping there'll likely be a domino effect.

I'd add as well that loads of bitcoins have been lost (ie, the crypto-key to transfer them has been lost).  This, and the 'strongly held' bitcoins held by a few insiders, amounts to about 50% of all Bitcoins.  Really the market cap should be the liquid cap; the value of the asset that is available to be traded.

-------

An interesting thing about Bitcoin is that there are meant to be $2bln in transactions per day. I find this difficult to believe.  If you look at the numbers there are around 350,000 transaction per day -- so that says each transaction, on average, is worth $6k.  This seems high to me -- I know there are loads of people moving in, but $6k per transaction?  Something more complex is going on here.

Another interesting thing is the pending-transactions is not at about 200,000 -- so it's about half a days transactions are pending.  Wow.  I wonder what the average transaction costs are running at...

I've already heard of people committing suicide because they sold too early.  I think we'll have more suicides when it crashes.  How come things always eventually turn out this way when money is involved?

Edited by dgul

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