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TheCountOfNowhere

Mumsnet, are the all there?

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Just now, Frank Hovis said:

Some of them are awesome hence their regularly getting into the newspapers.

A good recent one was where somebody had broken a glass at her parents in law's house and they had, without saying they were going to do so, sent her a £160 bill for it!

It's like a Jeremy Kyle show in forum form as you get all these stories that make you go "Really?".

Yes I read that one. HOW MUCH! You could hear everyone raising their voices.

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5 minutes ago, spygirl said:

You clearly dont have kids and have to chat to these mental harridans at the school gate.

They are very real.

It's been an education for me, the school gates.

I've met loads of the mums and while most are lovely, a significant number are absolutely fucking mental.

There are quite a few girls nights out organised and I can say, categorically, that the lads nights in the pub are a Jehovah's Witness tea party by comparison. The last one had a load of videos on facebook pulled to save a few blushes and possibly a couple of marriages into the bargain.

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16 minutes ago, spygirl said:

You clearly dont have kids and have to chat to these mental harridans at the school gate.

They are very real.

I regularly take my child to school. I time it so I walk straight in and straight out.

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23 minutes ago, Sgt Hartman said:

It's been an education for me, the school gates.

I've met loads of the mums and while most are lovely, a significant number are absolutely fucking mental.

There are quite a few girls nights out organised and I can say, categorically, that the lads nights in the pub are a Jehovah's Witness tea party by comparison. The last one had a load of videos on facebook pulled to save a few blushes and possibly a couple of marriages into the bargain.

It was only upon my daughter starting school that I discovered that the McCann style of couldn't give a shit parenting wasn't the freaky outlier that I had once believed.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Thankfully, the government dont control the market, but I agree, there is no end of madness they could do.  Dont forget 40 year mortgages ( already happening ) life time mortgages ( rent till you die ) inter-generational mortgages.  These are signs that the bubble will collapse, not that they will be abke to keep it going.

Politically though, it is suicide, the Tories already know that.

It's a free market at the end of the day, ultimately people will decide with their feet/wallet.

The young will leave, the immigrants stop coming, as soon as that happens the pyramid collapses.

The scary thing is that the collapse did happen here, and within a decade people have forgotten it ever happened and prices are being ramped right up again. People talk emotionally about houses, and think you're weird when you point out how ridiculous prices are especially when you take into account the cost of upkeep, rising council tax ect...

The average wage in NI is £21K. The average wage in Belfast can't be much more than that, say £25K (although I have no evidence for this). Yet I see 2.5 bedroom semi's (i.e. having 3 kids would be a struggle due to lack of space) for £200K now. 4 bedroom houses seem to be inching toward £300K again - my parents sold their 4 bed semi 5 years ago for £170K and they were lucky to find a buyer.

That just doesn't add up, does it?

Edited by JoeDavola

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1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

The scary thing is that the collapse did happen here, and within a decade people have forgotten it ever happened and prices are being ramped right up again.

The average wage in NI is £21K. The average wage in Belfast can't be much more than that, say £25K. Yet I see 2.5 bedroom semi's (i.e. having 3 kids would be a struggle due to lack of space) for £200K now. 4 bedroom houses seem to be inching toward £300K again - my parents sold their 4 bed semi 5 years ago for £170K and they were lucky to find a buyer.

That just doesn't add up, does it?

I think that the TV propaganda is the root of that problem.

How many hours each week do you see of people making money out of property?  You could probably watch it eight hours a day with all the Freeview channels.

And how many hours were dedicated to prorgammes about people losing money on property left right and centre when the crashes come?  Maybe a twenty minute slot on newsnight.

This is why people have short memories: TV programmes.

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5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

The scary thing is that the collapse did happen here, and within a decade people have forgotten it ever happened and prices are being ramped right up again. People talk emotionally about houses, and think you're weird when you point out how ridiculous prices are especially when you take into account the cost of upkeep, rising council tax ect...

The average wage in NI is £21K. The average wage in Belfast can't be much more than that, say £25K (although I have no evidence for this). Yet I see 2.5 bedroom semi's (i.e. having 3 kids would be a struggle due to lack of space) for £200K now. 4 bedroom houses seem to be inching toward £300K again - my parents sold their 4 bed semi 5 years ago for £170K and they were lucky to find a buyer.

That just doesn't add up, does it?

You're lucky... The average wage where I live is £25k and the average 2.5 bedroom semi is about £500k. Basically more than  double the price of where you live. It's a disaster.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65264623.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-62276020.html

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4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think that the TV propaganda is the root of that problem.

How many hours each week do you see of people making money out of property?  You could probably watch it eight hours a day with all the Freeview channels.

And how many hours were dedicated to prorgammes about people losing money on property left right and centre when the crashes come?  Maybe a twenty minute slot on newsnight.

This is why people have short memories: TV programmes.

Excellent point, hadn't thought of it like that.

At the moment we're back again to the situation where prices are rising faster than most people could save, and I can feel the 'better get on the ladder before it's too late' panic set in.

But simple maths should tell you that prices can't raise faster than wages forever, all the money's got to come from somewhere.

 

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1 minute ago, spunko2010 said:

You're lucky... The average wage where I live is £25k and the average 2.5 bedroom semi is about £500k. Basically more than  double the price of where you live. It's a disaster.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65264623.html

Yeah if prices were like that I'd leave the area and start a life somewhere else. You're basically priced out of life. As it is I don't have to play the game at the moment because I have a great flat that I rent for £500 all in a month (quarterly gas bill just arrived - £37).

You're better taking £600K and putting it into a good index tracker IMHO than sinking it into a UK house. Especially if you have nothing that ties you to the UK. As it is I'm starting to come to the conclusion that's what I should be doing with my money - diversifying and saying 'fuck you' to housing - rather than sinking it into a wee semi in rainy Belfast which it then becomes my job to stop falling down.

IT folk who live in England would be better coming to live in NI - tons of IT jobs at the moment and the houses, whilst too expensive, aren't that fucking bad.

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1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Excellent point, hadn't thought of it like that.

At the moment we're back again to the situation where prices are rising faster than most people could save, and I can feel the 'better get on the ladder before it's too late' panic set in.

But simple maths should tell you that prices can't raise faster than wages forever, all the money's got to come from somewhere.

 

We should recognise that as an advantage bestowed from being here and (mostly) previously on ToS.  We can step back and do things like comparing average prices to average wages and also dispassionately view property as just another asset class.

Without that distance people see rising prices as exactly that "get on the ladder" panic you say without being able to take a simple step back and say, "Hmm, are they actually already far too high and therefore there is a good chance that they might crash?" and so allowing that to inform their decision.  Meaning not a simple "Don't buy" but "If I bought and they crashed would that cause me a problem rather than being just an opportunity lost?"

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1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah if prices were like that I'd leave the area and start a life somewhere else. You're basically priced out of life. As it is I don't have to play the game at the moment because I have a great flat that I rent for £500 all in a month (quarterly gas bill just arrived - £37).

You're better taking £600K and putting it into a good index tracker IMHO than sinking it into a UK house. Especially if you have nothing that ties you to the UK. As it is I'm starting to come to the conclusion that's what I should be doing with my money - diversifying and saying 'fuck you' to housing - rather than sinking it into a wee semi in rainy Belfast which it then becomes my job to stop falling down.

IT folk who live in England would be better coming to live in NI - tons of IT jobs at the moment and the houses, whilst too expensive, aren't that fucking bad.

Unless you really wanted to live in the wee semi in rainy Belfast and it woudln't break you financially to do so.

In your position I'd keep renting and saving; I really liked renting flats because I had so little to do in looking after them that my weekends were always my own.

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12 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Unless you really wanted to live in the wee semi in rainy Belfast and it woudln't break you financially to do so.

In your position I'd keep renting and saving; I really liked renting flats because I had so little to do in looking after them that my weekends were always my own.

Aye, it's not too bad. If I see something that I really like I might buy even if it doesn't make financial sense to do so, but there's very few places that would be like that.

It just amuses me that the answer to 'how much will a house cost me' seems to be: "most of your money for the rest of your life", and when IR's are low the prices rise to ensure this law still applies.

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19 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yeah if prices were like that I'd leave the area and start a life somewhere else. You're basically priced out of life. As it is I don't have to play the game at the moment because I have a great flat that I rent for £500 all in a month (quarterly gas bill just arrived - £37).

You're better taking £600K and putting it into a good index tracker IMHO than sinking it into a UK house. Especially if you have nothing that ties you to the UK. As it is I'm starting to come to the conclusion that's what I should be doing with my money - diversifying and saying 'fuck you' to housing - rather than sinking it into a wee semi in rainy Belfast which it then becomes my job to stop falling down.

IT folk who live in England would be better coming to live in NI - tons of IT jobs at the moment and the houses, whilst too expensive, aren't that fucking bad.

Which is why I am off.

I can rent this locally - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-65359324.html

Or this when I move. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-54432732.html

Not a difficult decision.

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27 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Excellent point, hadn't thought of it like that.

At the moment we're back again to the situation where prices are rising faster than most people could save, and I can feel the 'better get on the ladder before it's too late' panic set in.

But simple maths should tell you that prices can't raise faster than wages forever, all the money's got to come from somewhere.

 

That presupposes that people will continue to own their own homes in similar numbers to now. It's perfectly possible that land ownership is (re)concentrated into fewer and fewer hands.

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5 minutes ago, Cunning Plan said:

Which is why I am off.

I can rent this locally - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-65359324.html

Or this when I move. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-54432732.html

Not a difficult decision.

Wow!  The most no-brainer of no-brainers.

(I trust you've checked the council tax rates :P)

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9 minutes ago, Cunning Plan said:

Which is why I am off.

I can rent this locally - http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-65359324.html

Or this when I move. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-to-rent/property-54432732.html

Not a difficult decision.

That's fucking mental.

I remember at the peak of the NI boom in 2006, the same price as a 2-up-2-down on the rough streets of Belfast would have bought you a detached McMansion in Ohio where my friends live.

Odd state of affairs.

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9 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

That presupposes that people will continue to own their own homes in similar numbers to now. It's perfectly possible that land ownership is (re)concentrated into fewer and fewer hands.

The side effect of this will be no more retirement for workers, as no one will be able to pay full whack rent with just a pension. Which probably suits the government just fine.

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50 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

 

That just doesn't add up, does it?

No, it doesnt.

Speculators. money launderers, levered up BTLers, Londoners moving to the shires, all having a massive impact.

The prices relative to money/wages makes no sense whatsoever.

Based on that, it's a bubble.

48 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think that the TV propaganda is the root of that problem.

 

I think the government that allows it is the problem.

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10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

That's fucking mental.

I remember at the peak of the NI boom in 2006, the same price as a 2-up-2-down on the rough streets of Belfast would have bought you a detached McMansion in Ohio where my friends live.

Odd state of affairs.

What happened next ? 

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20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

:Jumping::P

Collapse is imminent, mark my words

The other trope I've been hearing from a couple of people I know is "you can never lose with houses", and people agitated that I haven't bought yet. I'd guess that's perhaps a sign not to buy.

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I regularly take my child to school. I time it so I walk straight in and straight out.

I get the childminder to do the dirty work ;)

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Just now, JoeDavola said:

The other trope I've been hearing from a couple of people I know is "you can never lose with houses", and people agitated that I haven't bought yet. I'd guess that's perhaps a sign not to buy.

I used to get that from people who didn't know me very well.

Most people who can afford to buy (via a mortgage) a house do so and it so becomes the default assumption that anybody who can buy a house does so and therefore anyone who doesn't cannot afford to buy.

Unless you're going to start handing out photostats of your investment statements (not a good idea) you will just have to live with the fact that people are thinking that you are poor and pitying you because you can't afford to buy a house.  Still, should mean buying less rounds of drinks.

People I worked with at one company knew I was "comfortable" despite not owning a house mainly because they knew my previous career and revised their views upwards when I told what I was thought was a funny and self-deprecating story at work without considering that people might think that the amount involved was a lot.  I was fed up with all the financial paperwork I kept getting and went on a mission of selling small holdings and closing down accounts I wasn't using.  I realised I had two deposit accounts with my bank (which had made sense at one time) and I wanted to close one of them and transfer the balance.  So one lunchtime I arranged to visit the bank as the easiest way of doing it.  When he looked up the one I wanted to close he said I couldn't at the moment because there were two £10k bonds linked to it that didn't mature until the next year.  I said there weren't as I didn't have any £10k bonds, eventually he managed to persuade me that I did and I'd just forgotten about them.

I was expecting everyone to fall about laughing at my stupidity but the universal response was an open-mouthed: "How could you forget about £20k?".

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4 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I was expecting everyone to fall about laughing at my stupidity but the universal response was an open-mouthed: "How could you forget about £20k?".

How could you forget about £20K?

You West Country dope!

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