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Frank Hovis

Iran and Saudi gearing up for war

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After the way it has become very nasty.in their proxy war in the Yemen I can see this kicking off.

The Saudis have an unrealistic estimation of their capacity based upon some pricey kit, whereas Iran has properly disciplined and trained armed forces.

I can this happening and Iran flattening Saudi in short order. What happens then will be interesting.

Aramco shares anyone?

 

https://www.rt.com/news/387557-iran-saudi-attack-threat/

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23 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

After the way it has become very nasty.in their proxy war in the Yemen I can see this kicking off.

The Saudis have an unrealistic estimation of their capacity based upon some pricey kit, whereas Iran has properly disciplined and trained armed forces.

I can this happening and Iran flattening Saudi in short order. What happens then will be interesting.

Aramco shares anyone?

 

https://www.rt.com/news/387557-iran-saudi-attack-threat/

Wouldn't the Americans pile in on the Saudi side.

 

However it would be great to see Saudi just disappear if it got flattened by Iran, a cancerous state with its wahabi bile pumped out around the planet, paid for by its petrodollars

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17 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Wouldn't the Americans pile in on the Saudi side.

 

However it would be great to see Saudi just disappear if it got flattened by Iran, a cancerous state with its wahabi bile pumped out around the planet, paid for by its petrodollars

The Saudis are horrid, agreed. However as we have already seen multiple times in the ME, horrid regimes can easily be replaced by something worse. 

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1 minute ago, swissy_fit said:

 

The Saudis are horrid, agreed. However as we have already seen multiple times in the ME, horrid regimes can easily be replaced by something worse. 

I think Iran would just annex it if it won into a Greater Persia; they're next door to it not just looking for an opportunity to depart like the US and us. 

 

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Just now, Frank Hovis said:

I think Iran would just annex it if it won into a Greater Persia; they're next door to it not just looking for an opportunity to depart like the US and us. 

 

Maybe. They certainly have that ambition, spoke to a posh Iranian burd the other week and she was utterly contemptuous of Saudi Arabia. But the Americans like having the ME in flames as far as I can see, they'd probably trot out all the UN "sovereign nation" shit and fund a Saudi resistance, to see if they could generate a few million more refugees and stop Europe threatening their technological supremacy. That's if they didn't pile in on the Saudi side as Talking Monkey said.

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Iran does not really have the capability to hit Saudi other than by missiles. Whether these missiles have the range or accuracy to do damage is open to debate. We would not really find out until they were used in anger. In terms of aircraft and ships the Iranians have a pretty poor capability.

Any Iranian missiles heading towards Saudi would be targetted by US systems and by the 600 odd Patriot missiles that the Saudis have bought.

All the Iranians would be doing in this regard is to invite a heavy air strike on themselves. The Saudis have a very capable strike bomber foorce comprising of Tornados and F-15's - the Saudis will soon be flying the most advanced version of the F--15 Strike Eagle in the world.

So the options for the Iranians is to use third parties in Yemen, Syria and Iraq to cause strife for the Saudis. That is really their only option at the moment. Best option for them is to wait until they have perfected a nuke and an accurate missile to deliver a nuke. Then they can just take out Riyadh and Tel Aviv. Anything short of that is going to bring a world of grief down on Iran so it is best if they do not fall into the trap.

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Forgot to say, the other main weapon Iran has against Saudi currently is pumping loads of oil thereby lowering the price of crude and causing serious damage to the Saudi economy.

Internally the Saud family maintain control partly through the SANG - Saudi Arabia National Guard - who are better equipped than the army and via patronage through money. Once the money starts to go then a lot of tribes in Saudi will have no reason to stay loyal to the Houe of Saud.

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4 hours ago, swissy_fit said:

 

The Saudis are horrid, agreed. However as we have already seen multiple times in the ME, horrid regimes can easily be replaced by something worse. 

True, but allegedly the ones financially backing that someone worse tend to be located in Saudi.

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5 minutes ago, Oskar said:

True, but allegedly the ones financially backing that someone worse tend to be located in Saudi.

Sometimes. And sometimes in Iran. And sometimes in Lebanon. And sometimes in places that are promoting conflict among their neighbours for their own reasons. And sometimes in places that are rich and powerful and friends with the preceding type.  It's a dirty old world. 

I am reminded of the Aliens "Nuke the entire site from orbit, it's he only way to be sure" line.  But then the really bad guys round the world making money from the misery would then need somewhere else to make it.

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I think Saudi will collapse from the inside once the money supply starts to dwindle as they do fuck all themselves and rely on hoards of external workers. Think of Byzantium and the fall of the Eastern Empire which relied on paying mercenaries. History will repeat itself, if their migrant workers fuck-off the whole place will stop functioning and they will as soon as the place shows any signs of instability especially if radical fundamentalists are involved..

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1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think Saudi will collapse from the inside once the money supply starts to dwindle as they do fuck all themselves and rely on hoards of external workers. Think of Byzantium and the fall of the Eastern Empire which relied on paying mercenaries. History will repeat itself, if their migrant workers fuck-off the whole place will stop functioning and they will as soon as the place shows any signs of instability especially if radical fundamentalists are involved..

I expect the Saudi elite have already got a number of different escape routes planned, other identities waiting to be activated etc. Paris and London have a long history of lodging such nice folk.  

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6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think Saudi will collapse from the inside once the money supply starts to dwindle as they do fuck all themselves and rely on hoards of external workers. Think of Byzantium and the fall of the Eastern Empire which relied on paying mercenaries. History will repeat itself, if their migrant workers fuck-off the whole place will stop functioning and they will as soon as the place shows any signs of instability especially if radical fundamentalists are involved..

This is why they have bought up huge chunks of prime property and assets in the UK, US and elsewhere IMPO. I think in the next 100 years, probably sooner, we will see demands for monies to be repaid to the people of Saudi Arabia much in the same way that the money that Saddam, Gaddafi, etc, stole from their countries was demanded back. Of course, much if not most of it just disappeared.

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6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

After the way it has become very nasty.in their proxy war in the Yemen I can see this kicking off.

The Saudis have an unrealistic estimation of their capacity based upon some pricey kit, whereas Iran has properly disciplined and trained armed forces.

I can this happening and Iran flattening Saudi in short order. What happens then will be interesting.

Aramco shares anyone?

 

https://www.rt.com/news/387557-iran-saudi-attack-threat/

Fancy kit which they will pay ex USAF, RAF and Luftwaffe Pilots shed loads to fly.

This is a point I have made to my Iranian relatives before they get too excited about things kicking off.

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12 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think Saudi will collapse from the inside once the money supply starts to dwindle as they do fuck all themselves and rely on hoards of external workers. Think of Byzantium and the fall of the Eastern Empire which relied on paying mercenaries. History will repeat itself, if their migrant workers fuck-off the whole place will stop functioning and they will as soon as the place shows any signs of instability especially if radical fundamentalists are involved..

Exactly. Iran just has to wait. In Iran virtually all work is done by Iranians whether that be CEO of a company or cleaning the toilets.

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4 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Forgot to say, the other main weapon Iran has against Saudi currently is pumping loads of oil thereby lowering the price of crude and causing serious damage to the Saudi economy.

Internally the Saud family maintain control partly through the SANG - Saudi Arabia National Guard - who are better equipped than the army and via patronage through money. Once the money starts to go then a lot of tribes in Saudi will have no reason to stay loyal to the Houe of Saud.

Low oil price is the way to go, if the Iranians had sense they would play nice with the west get their oil infra all tip top and pump as much oil as they can, so the world is awash with it, low oil for 4-5 years will crush Saudi, and good riddance

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3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think Saudi will collapse from the inside once the money supply starts to dwindle as they do fuck all themselves and rely on hoards of external workers. Think of Byzantium and the fall of the Eastern Empire which relied on paying mercenaries. History will repeat itself, if their migrant workers fuck-off the whole place will stop functioning and they will as soon as the place shows any signs of instability especially if radical fundamentalists are involved..

Saudi also has a sizable but poor Shia minority.

That said what I expect to do for the Saudis is the slow but certain move of the rest of the world away from oil as a primary energy source.

I pretty much loath the Saudis and I think that the Wahhabis have been a blight on Islam, surprisingly a view shared by some leading Sunni clerics.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/saudi-arabia-attacked-sunni-shia-leaders-wahhabism-chechenya-robert-fisk-a7322716.html

If you actually read up about what the Wahhabis have done in places like Mecca and Medina you will soon realise they have destroyed quite big chunks of Islams own millennia long architectural heritage in the peninsula

Once the money runs out the center of power in Sunni Islam is going to move out of Arabia.

 

Edited by Flirtygirty

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3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Low oil price is the way to go, if the Iranians had sense they would play nice with the west get their oil infra all tip top and pump as much oil as they can, so the world is awash with it, low oil for 4-5 years will crush Saudi, and good riddance

This can be speeded up by intensifying the proxy wars and greater arms sales to KSA. Bring it on!

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10 hours ago, Flirtygirty said:

Saudi also has a sizable but poor Shia minority.

That said what I expect to do for the Saudis is the slow but certain move of the rest of the world away from oil as a primary energy source.

I pretty much loath the Saudis and I think that the Wahhabis have been a blight on Islam, surprisingly a view shared by some leading Sunni clerics.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/saudi-arabia-attacked-sunni-shia-leaders-wahhabism-chechenya-robert-fisk-a7322716.html

If you actually read up about what the Wahhabis have done in places like Mecca and Medina you will soon realise they have destroyed quite big chunks of Islams own millennia long architectural heritage in the peninsula

Once the money runs out the center of power in Sunni Islam is going to move out of Arabia.

 

Interesting article in the Independent, there's  a change in motion, definitely a decline is underway for the Saudi elite. Especially dissent from fellow Sunnis

Both the move away from oil as the primary energy source, and from a dependence on ME oil are what is needed. I think in the near term a move away from reliance on ME oil is more important. The US shale oil thing has been fantastic, there must be other shale sources around the world viable now that the tech is available and getting cheaper.

Aramco IPO really feels like a signal that the Saudi see the game being close to the end, use the proceeds to hang on a bit longer, or one big payday before bailing out.

Apart from Oil they really don't have much else going for them. Once the oil starts dwindling they really are screwed

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