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Turned Out Nice Again

Electric/ Self-driving cars and other disruptive tech

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Poster frug-al (is she here?) posted a thought-provoking article by environmentalist Chris Packham on TOS quoting a Yank study concluding  that self-drive + electric is going to be the biggest disruption to Global economies ever and it's coming sooner than we think - 2024 for self-drive cars to start going obsolete and the oil price to floor?

I was talking to my 11 yo boy this morning about driving tests etc. and told him he might just get in under the wire for car ownership, if he doesn't hang about.

https://techxplore.com/news/2017-05-analysis-extremely-disruptive-total-transition.html

Edited by Turned Out Nice Again

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I have a PHEV. This month I renewed my road tax for £0.00, been into London congestion zone twice for £0.00, and according to the onboard computer in the last 2000 miles I've averaged 188 mpg. These are largely artificial tax system created benefits, and while compelling at the moment, could easily disappear as large scale adoption begins to take place.

With "adaptive cruise control" and "lane assist" it is more or less self driving on the motorways. It'll be good once it's completely reliable, but for as long as you need a capable driver to keep an eye on it, it's a pretty marginal benefit.

Smartphone apps that allow you to start defrosting/air conditioning while you're getting ready to go out are brilliant, but I don't think they do them for non-electric vehicles at the moment even though it seems a pretty simple and obvious enhancement.

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14 minutes ago, Turned Out Nice Again said:

Poster frug-al (is she here?) posted a thought-provoking article by environmentalist Chris Packham on TOS quoting a Yank study concluding  that self-drive + electric is going to be the biggest disruption to Global economies ever and it's coming sooner than we think - 2024 for self-drive cars to start going obsolete and the oil price to floor?

I was talking to my 11 yo boy this morning about driving tests etc. and told him he might just get in under the wire for car ownership, if he doesn't hang about.

https://techxplore.com/news/2017-05-analysis-extremely-disruptive-total-transition.html

If you look where mobile phones went in 25 years, from yuppies in London having a brick as a phone to fairly poor folks in India and Africa having cool smartphones, then thinking on where EV/self driving cars could get to by say 2030 is thought provoking. If it helps to keep the oil price on the floor then two thumbs up from me, keep those Middle Eastern countries on the back foot

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Self Drive

This is the US that is being talked about.

It has big wide straight roads.  I have driven over there a fair bit and have found precisely one roundabout and, on the main road network, no single track roads with the occasional passing place as we have here.

So there may be big change in the US in the next ten years with the rise of self-driving cars but I can't see it happening here unless we're going to spend billions and billions upgrading the whole road network so that they can cope.

 

Electric

When the tech has improved to the point where I can get a 500 mile range, be confident of a minimum ten year life without needing to replace the batteries, and it costs the same as a conventional car then I'll switch.  I can't see that happening in ten years although it could get there in thirty. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Electric

When the tech has improved to the point where I can get a 500 mile range, be confident of a minimum ten year life without needing to replace the batteries, and it costs the same as a conventional car then I'll switch.  I can't see that happening in ten years although it could get there in thirty. 

 

I agree.

The problem with electric is it is already a fairly mature tech. Electric cars were competitive in the early days of motoring because they were more reliable than petrol (we're talking 1900s here). Electric motors are a bit more efficient. Composite materials can make cars lighter but battery tech still has poor energy density. You're more likely going to be an electric moped in 2030! Unless there is some miracle battery breakthrough it won't move like mobile phones.

By 2030 we may have the British designed fusion reactor producing power, if not where is the electric to come from for all these cars? We'll still be producing power from fossil on a large scale in 10 years time.

Self driving cars, my 12 year old follows this closely and he tells me not before 2030 for reliable self driving systems in europe.

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8 minutes ago, Turned Out Nice Again said:

Good one! You should have saved that for the Jokes thread.

Crikey I'd work on the joke project for enough money.

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51 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Self Drive

This is the US that is being talked about.

It has big wide straight roads.  I have driven over there a fair bit and have found precisely one roundabout and, on the main road network, no single track roads with the occasional passing place as we have here.

So there may be big change in the US in the next ten years with the rise of self-driving cars but I can't see it happening here unless we're going to spend billions and billions upgrading the whole road network so that they can cope.

Although in Europe we already have a lot of motorways - a self-drive tech that's good enough for motorways would utterly disrupt the long-distance haulage industry - drive a HGV to the motorway, lock it, & it drives itself all the way to Alicante - where another driver picks it up from the motorway exit and takes it to a warehouse.

Just this level of change could take a decade or more to implement (just renewing equipment/new legal frameworks). Self-driving down narrow country lanes might then be a lot easier due to extra processing power/a decade of data on self-driving trucks on motorways, coping with rain/snow/etc.

Edited by DeepLurker

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39 minutes ago, davidg said:

I agree.

The problem with electric is it is already a fairly mature tech. Electric cars were competitive in the early days of motoring because they were more reliable than petrol (we're talking 1900s here). Electric motors are a bit more efficient. Composite materials can make cars lighter but battery tech still has poor energy density. You're more likely going to be an electric moped in 2030! Unless there is some miracle battery breakthrough it won't move like mobile phones.

 

It's been gradual but pretty much there already, certainly enough for most journeys. Renault Zoe 250mile range on 41Kwh pack and fast charging option - you need the two together decent range and fast charging. Nissan also saying they have 250mile battery sorted. Both of these not premium/stupid money cars. Graph below 5-8% improvement per year, it is the new chemistries that are keeping the exponential improvement going (for now).

main-qimg-f2e0a02e01f39e032741cfb7bb9e349d 

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

Electric

When the tech has improved to the point where I can get a 500 mile range, be confident of a minimum ten year life without needing to replace the batteries, and it costs the same as a conventional car then I'll switch.  I can't see that happening in ten years although it could get there in thirty. 

 

I can't quite see why you are apparently more demanding of the new tech than of the old (a conventional ICE car needs loads of maintenance and parts over 10 years, electrics are likely to be far better if well built)  A psychological barrier more than anything else? The range you require is quite high too, I very rarely drive more than 300 miles without stopping for a meal/toilet etc. Anyway I think you'll have all that within 5 years but it might require more government tinkering (taxing ICE cars more and more highly) and a higher oil price to make the prices closer together.

To save us batting opinions back and forth, here's a challenge :- Go and test drive a BMW I3, a car I find awesomely good, but too small and expensive. If you don't like driving it, well you'll probably never want an electric. For me, a slightly bigger and more affordable one of those, and I'll be all over it like a rash. I'm guessing one will be around in under 5 years.

 

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1 hour ago, swissy_fit said:

I can't quite see why you are apparently more demanding of the new tech than of the old (a conventional ICE car needs loads of maintenance and parts over 10 years, electrics are likely to be far better if well built)  A psychological barrier more than anything else? The range you require is quite high too, I very rarely drive more than 300 miles without stopping for a meal/toilet etc. Anyway I think you'll have all that within 5 years but it might require more government tinkering (taxing ICE cars more and more highly) and a higher oil price to make the prices closer together.

To save us batting opinions back and forth, here's a challenge :- Go and test drive a BMW I3, a car I find awesomely good, but too small and expensive. If you don't like driving it, well you'll probably never want an electric. For me, a slightly bigger and more affordable one of those, and I'll be all over it like a rash. I'm guessing one will be around in under 5 years.

 

I wasn't being more demanding, maintenance is fine but I don't want to be shelling out £5 - 10k for a new battery pack every five years, plus i get 650 range now and do have a 450 mile round trip every so often when it's handy not to have to refuel.

I've had a look at the reviews and with a range of 195miles that comfortably covers my daily commute of 100 miles and overnight slow charge in the garage is easy as it already has power.

The price range of £32 - 36k is too high but they're saying possibly 30% residuals after 5 years so then £9k as long as no battery replacement problems are flagged would suit me down to the ground; as my £2k annual fuel bill will pay for that in five years.  Great; I will be watching the second hand market for that one.

I'm not anti electric cars at all; I'd change like a shot if it could meet my requirements but not at £30k plus. 

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9 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

I wasn't being more demanding, maintenance is fine but I don't want to be shelling out £5 - 10k for a new battery pack every five years, plus i get 650 range now and do have a 450 mile round trip every so often when it's handy not to have to refuel.

I've had a look at the reviews and with a range of 195miles that comfortably covers my daily commute of 100 miles and overnight slow charge in the garage is easy as it already has power.

The price range of £32 - 36k is too high but they're saying possibly 30% residuals after 5 years so then £9k as long as no battery replacement problems are flagged would suit me down to the ground; as my £2k annual fuel bill will pay for that in five years.  Great; I will be watching the second hand market for that one.

I'm not anti electric cars at all; I'd change like a shot if it could meet my requirements but not at £30k plus. 

Tough guy, I find 450 miles tiring especially in UK conditions, and without refuelling too. Combine that with work and I'd be well pissed off by the end of the day.  

I reckon the current crop of electrics residuals might be lower than 30% after 5 years, due to the improving batteries. Let's say the 2022 BMW I3 has a real-life range of 400 miles and charges quickly, no extender required. The current one, good as it seems now, will look feeble in comparison, they'll be reduced to town runabouts.

This improvement is a positive and a negative thing - while there is no great pressure to change people will think that next year the cars will be better....Even after the 300ish miles tipping point which should trigger their move into the mainstream, they'll still be getting lighter and cheaper year by year. So residuals IMO are a big deterrent for buyers.

Acceleration of the electrification is going to take government intervention, unfortunately not something they have a good track record with, cough, diesels...

 

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4 hours ago, onlyme said:

It's been gradual but pretty much there already, certainly enough for most journeys. Renault Zoe 250mile range on 41Kwh pack and fast charging option - you need the two together decent range and fast charging. Nissan also saying they have 250mile battery sorted. Both of these not premium/stupid money cars. Graph below 5-8% improvement per year, it is the new chemistries that are keeping the exponential improvement going (for now).

 

I have a neighbour who has the 200km range Zoe. When he drives to Lyon (which he does for work on a regular basis) which is 125km away he has to... stop for a top up near the outskirts. That's at motorway driving speeds. If he drove on the back roads at 70 kph he'd do it.

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3 minutes ago, davidg said:

I have a neighbour who has the 200km range Zoe. When he drives to Lyon (which he does for work on a regular basis) which is 125km away he has to... stop for a top up near the outskirts. That's at motorway driving speeds. If he drove on the back roads at 70 kph he'd do it.

The American range tests, like their fuel economy tests, are much more realistic. The Chevrolet Bolt is rated at 238 miles in the US, but in Europe it's way more, over 500km I think. 200km "range" on a European test is, as your poor neighbour found out, bullshit.

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5 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

The American range tests, like their fuel economy tests, are much more realistic. The Chevrolet Bolt is rated at 238 miles in the US, but in Europe it's way more, over 500km I think. 200km "range" on a European test is, as your poor neighbour found out, bullshit.

The car is fine for his normal daily commute of 50km, in fact sometimes he goes 3 days without a charge!

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7 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Saw this article via reddit

Tesla battery researcher says they doubled lifetime of batteries in Tesla’s products 4 years ahead of time

Today's electric cars/battery/range will as stated above look like 1990's mobile phones in 10years time.

That stuff is really exciting if true, world-changing. The bad news is that if true, the US is going to be even less interested in a peaceful Middle East.

Edited by swissy_fit

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10 minutes ago, swissy_fit said:

That stuff is really exciting if true, world-changing. The bad news is that if true, the US is going to be even less interested in a peaceful Middle East.

There seems to be amazing opportunity for Elon Musk / Tesla to change the world is ways that maybe even governments can't stop. (I'm not sure governments can react fast enough)

Have you seen Tesla's Gigafactory 1? 

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Saw a Tesla saloon type car take off from the lights the other day - it was awesomely fast! On two wheels, electric manufacturers like Torrot are bringing both utility scooters for urban run arounds, and also leisure / competition dirt bikes to the market. Can't wait for the technology to advance.

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34 minutes ago, Lurker said:

There seems to be amazing opportunity for Elon Musk / Tesla to change the world is ways that maybe even governments can't stop. (I'm not sure governments can react fast enough)

Have you seen Tesla's Gigafactory 1? 

Yeah know about the Gigafactory. But I don't think it'll change the world as it stands. However if the battery advances are fast enough and cheap enough, then it will. Wonder what range the Model 3 will arrive with, and what it will be in 3 years?

That solar/house battery setup discussed in the link in your first post is nearly there now, not much more and it's an absolute gamechanger. Cars are one thing, a more difficult problem, but if all houses with a south-facing roof can go off-grid for a few thousand dollars and even have some extra power to do other stuff with, the consequences could be huge. Trumps coalminer unions won't like it though.

 

Edited by swissy_fit

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17 minutes ago, Caravan Monster said:

Saw a Tesla saloon type car take off from the lights the other day - it was awesomely fast! On two wheels, electric manufacturers like Torrot are bringing both utility scooters for urban run arounds, and also leisure / competition dirt bikes to the market. Can't wait for the technology to advance.

I like the Scrooser / Citycoco machines - big fat tyres, think they stand upright on their own. Cheap direct from China, problem is licensing/speed in UK.

 

 

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Real life Tesla battery life - from records submitted by owners (lots) is already looking way in excess of manufacturer claims, so a doubling would basically mean no battery changes for sure.

Here's some stats pulled from those data sets.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, onlyme said:

I like the Scrooser / Citycoco machines - big fat tyres, think they stand upright on their own. Cheap direct from China, problem is licensing/speed in UK.

 

 

It looks fun and all, but why not just get an electric bike?

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