Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Gordie Lastchance]

2 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I'm not sure we have saved you, at least not yet. I do think that this is probably a far more valuable resource than a Financial Adviser though! The fact is most of us think that there will be a deflationary/inflationary event at some point in the near future, and the general consensus is that governments and central banks will want to save 'capitalism'. (Not that we actually have capitalism now, but that's another discussion!)

I think one fund worth mentioning, and I'm not sure if it's been mentioned before is the Personal Assets Investment Trust LON:PNL. I think I'm right in saying they have a 10% gold holding.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/11685592/The-table-that-shows-you-should-always-hold-gold.html

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/personal-assets-trust-exposure-to-shares-reduced

It's not a very exciting fund, but that is probably what you want as a starting point!

That's just it, if I sat down in front of a financial adviser, I'd get one viewpoint and a viewpoint that might be skewed (someone mentioned their own experience of one a page or so back). Here, there are different viewpoints which kind of converge in places. Viewpoints that give food for thought. Thank you for the links, I'll get stuck into them. After other contributors mentioned Vodafone, I spent a wee while looking at it (yeah, glazing over more like!) just there. I saw on stock market fallers of the day that Persimmon is down over 4%. Wasn't looking to buy - only mentioning it because of the theme of ToS, which attracted me to that site all those years ago.  

[ThoughtCriminal]

Question for DB and SP:

 

Have either of you looked at Russian stocks?

 

Lots of miners, telecoms and power producers there and the average yield is 6%

 

Any thoughts?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

42 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I'm not sure we have saved you, at least not yet. I do think that this is probably a far more valuable resource than a Financial Adviser though! The fact is most of us think that there will be a deflationary/inflationary event at some point in the near future, and the general consensus is that governments and central banks will want to save 'capitalism'. (Not that we actually have capitalism now, but that's another discussion!)

I think one fund worth mentioning, and I'm not sure if it's been mentioned before is the Personal Assets Investment Trust LON:PNL. I think I'm right in saying they have a 10% gold holding.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/11685592/The-table-that-shows-you-should-always-hold-gold.html

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/personal-assets-trust-exposure-to-shares-reduced

It's not a very exciting fund, but that is probably what you want as a starting point!

AGREED!

 

One of my relatives is a Financial Adviser - nice enough guy, however what he knows about finance you could read in a ladybird type book on "learning finance"  lol

 

MOST Financial Advisers are only interested in their Financial gain ...NOT yours!

Stick to this thread AND as ever DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

AGREED!

 

One of my relatives is a Financial Adviser - nice enough guy, however what he knows about finance you could read in a ladybird type book on "learning finance"  lol

 

MOST Financial Advisers are only interested in their Financial gain ...NOT yours!

Stick to this thread AND as ever DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

My cousin is an FA.He has been for decades.If your young he goes 80% equity funds,if your old he goes 80% bond funds.If your skint but own a house he sets up an equity release.If you want a pension he sets it all up.He knows nothing about what drives things though or economics.Zero.He is really a salesman,and full admits it.Earns a lot though.They are fine for anyone (like a lot of his clients) who inherit a wedge (say £200k) and know nothing about investing.Those are his bread and butter.He charges them a few grand to stick them in a few managed bond and equity funds.

 

57 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Question for DB and SP:

 

Have either of you looked at Russian stocks?

 

Lots of miners, telecoms and power producers there and the average yield is 6%

 

Any thoughts?

Iv bought and sold a Russian ETF in the past,but thats closed off to us now.I wouldnt buy individual stocks there as i can get all the exposure i want in the west.I would of bought the ETF again though if i could at some point.

[Lockedout]

Vanguard precious metals and miners? I’m about to go for it... anyone?

[Game_of_Homes]

Hello guys (and gals). 

Came over from the other place but have changed my name. This thread is too valuable to lose. Thanks Durhamborn.

Don't know what happened over there but what a shame...

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Game_of_Homes said:

Hello guys (and gals). 

Came over from the other place but have changed my name. This thread is too valuable to lose. Thanks Durhamborn.

Don't know what happened over there but what a shame...

I was moderated for about a week for some reason,im not now,but it made me think that if things get interesting its not a good idea to have things shut down.All the different people who add to this conversation really help everyone think about things in an open way.This feels more like where we belong with this thread,though i will add to the other one now and again.

[Gordie Lastchance]

57 minutes ago, Lockedout said:

Vanguard precious metals and miners? I’m about to go for it... anyone?

I take it you aren't looking at me for advice!!!! Hee hee.

However, poking about on the internets following up suggestions made by other contributors, I remembered The Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG) having been mentioned as part of discussions on ToS. It's described as a closed ended investment company, based in Guernsey. What I've found is it has an annual management charge of 1%, an ongoing charge of 0.08% and a dividend yield of 5.78% (but it says under dividend frequency: none. Eh?). Its market capitalisation is £1.1billion. Its spiel says it has a portfolio of 58 investment projects in wind, solar PV and battery storage in the UK, Ireland and France. I'm not a greenie, but I do care about choking the atmosphere with toxic things. To thread contributors: Is this worth a closer look???

[DurhamBorn]

54 minutes ago, Lockedout said:

Vanguard precious metals and miners? I’m about to go for it... anyone?

Looks a decent fund,lots of mid cap gold miner exposure.Im not sure if we can buy them in the UK now though.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They might be cutting rates and printing by January.Interesting the Fed is doing that.I hope they are getting ready for long ones soon,they will need them.

ECB just said they're stopped QE by Jan, even if Italy is a mess

Anyone not got the memo yet ?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jun/14/ecb-qe-stimulus-mario-draghi-fed-rate-hike-uk-retail-sales-business-live

 

• ECB to end QE bond purchases in December

[Cosmic]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks a decent fund,lots of mid cap gold miner exposure.Im not sure if we can buy them in the UK now though.

Its not on HL which is a pity, would love to have something GDX like that was available through their web dealing. I have a chunk of cash (well my mothers) in a HL dealing account after I sold her out of a few things last year, and I'd like to put some in GDX. However, online dealing in GDX isn't available and as I don't speak to my mum (and she'd mess it up), phone dealing isn't an option. This KIID BS

Think I'm going to have to pick a couple of miners instead.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

ECB just said they're stopped QE by Jan, even if Italy is a mess

Anyone not got the memo yet ?

Yep,removing more liquidity.No increase in rates for a year though so they say.Interesting to see how the southern countries get debt away now.Corportate debt will prove harder to sell.The Fed has forced the ECBs hand here.Price and risk discovery will start to creep in to European asset markets.

We are halfway to what we expected now.First liquidity is tightened (no QE,or start of QT) and/or interest rate increases (Fed) push up the cost of debt until we enter recession.We then see  a massive debt deflation and they re-start QE pouring money into an already inflation primed economy.

4 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Its not on HL which is a pity, would love to have something GDX like that was available through their web dealing. I have a chunk of cash (well my mothers) in a HL dealing account after I sold her out of a few things last year, and I'd like to put some in GDX. However, online dealing in GDX isn't available and as I don't speak to my mum (and she'd mess it up), phone dealing isn't an option. This KIID BS

Think I'm going to have to pick a couple of miners instead.

Its a nightmare being locked out of all those ETFs,i have used many for years i cant access now.Its crazy,just another EU disaster.

[A_P]

FYI GDX can be bought on the LSE in GBP via LSE:GDGB

@sancho panza Which broker do you use for your miner shares? With the FX exchange these trade costs would soon mount up. I would have thought internative investor would allow me to deposit USD (which I hold already elsewhere) but it appears not. 1.5% plus the share dealing cost seems steep.

[No Duff (troll)]

5 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I think one fund worth mentioning, and I'm not sure if it's been mentioned before is the Personal Assets Investment Trust LON:PNL. I think I'm right in saying they have a 10% gold holding

Money Observer, June 2018 edition, page 30:  "The Managers Best Placed to Prepare For the Bear".  Mentions the PA IT and others.  But I reviewed them all a few months ago and was not sure they would deliver.  Regarding trusts generally, quotes "the median (tenure) manager has clocked up their track record in a long-in-the-tooth bull market".  We're pretty much on our own!

[Game_of_Homes]

Durhamborn, if you buy physical PMs what company would you recommend and what storage method is safest (would you recommend any specific companies)?. Risky to store physical gold/silver if you are renting...

[No Duff (troll)]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a nightmare being locked out of all those ETFs,i have used many for years i cant access now.Its crazy,just another EU disaster.

Thrre are ways, just not with an ISA or SIPP.

[Cosmic]

9 minutes ago, Game_of_Homes said:

Durhamborn, if you buy physical PMs what company would you recommend and what storage method is safest (would you recommend any specific companies)?. Risky to store physical gold/silver if you are renting...

Covered over on ToS a while back. Bullionvault for stored. Silver-to-go was the mentioned favorite for VAT free silver coins (Britannia), used them twice and been good. 

Storage is difficult - if you've seen the hiding spot in the movies, its no good  In the fabric of the building is good, hard for a renter.

[No Duff (troll)]

14 minutes ago, Game_of_Homes said:

Durhamborn, if you buy physical PMs what company would you recommend and what storage method is safest (would you recommend any specific companies)?. Risky to store physical gold/silver if you are renting...

Sorry, couldn't resist!  I hear some of the real rich like to put it in a Brinks, etc type of bonded warehouse (ie. in transit) so technically in no mans land.  The most interesting advice for punters was to put it in full view as a doorstop or something!

[DoINeedOne]

On 13/06/2018 at 12:34, DurhamBorn said:

The time to buy is when companies that will do just fine in the following cycle are hated at the end of the last one.Everyone and his dog has put up stories over the last several years that the likes of Centrica will be destroyed by all the small players in the market.So much so pretty much everyone thinks that.The contrarian answer is thats utter rubbish.Centrica have £2.5 billion of debt.If they sell the 20% nuclear stake its worth £2 billion.They would be debt free.During a cycle where energy costs are going up smaller players cant hedge very well and get wiped out.

Im not saying pile into Centrica,but i am saying those are the sorts of things i look for.As night follows day,companies that struggle during a disinflation cycle will prosper during a reflation.The market at the moment prices Just Eat at around 65% the value of Centrica.It prices Next plc as worth more.Lets see what those numbers are by 2024.

LONDON (Reuters) - Centrica plans to sell its 20 percent stake in eight British power plants by the end of 2020, but has yet to start marketing the assets, the company’s CEO said on Thursday 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-centrica/centrica-aims-to-sell-uk-nuclear-stake-by-end-of-2020-idUKKBN1JA19C

[Majorpain]

End of ECB QE going down like a lead balloon with the markets, You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

Time to pull the plug on the euro life support Mario.

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Game_of_Homes said:

Durhamborn, if you buy physical PMs what company would you recommend and what storage method is safest (would you recommend any specific companies)?. Risky to store physical gold/silver if you are renting...

Bullionvault i think are the best.Toronto for the vault.Best to have a vault outside your own country.

[Castlevania]

Goldcore are good. https://www.goldcore.com/uk/

[afly]

So you guys are paying min. $48 per year in fees to bullion vault? (do not underestimate how stingy I can be )

[TheCountOfNowhere]

26 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

End of ECB QE going down like a lead balloon with the markets, You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

Time to pull the plug on the euro life support Mario.

You can fool BTL numpties all of the time.

27 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

End of ECB QE going down like a lead balloon with the markets, You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.

Time to pull the plug on the euro life support Mario.

He said this PM, the euro is forever.

Nothing like an official denial to put the shitters up people.

 

[No Duff (troll)]

1 hour ago, Game_of_Homes said:

Durhamborn, if you buy physical PMs what company would you recommend and what storage method is safest (would you recommend any specific companies)?. Risky to store physical gold/silver if you are renting...

Bury them somewhere.  Been doing it for centuries.  Only, there is a problem with that but I can't remember what it was!