Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Funn3r]

18 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

 For me, "investing" so far has been like trying to get a duvet into its cover without humps the size of the Alps in the middle... 

Do it the professional way - duvet cover inside out, reach right into it from the open end and grab the two furthest corners, then through the fabric grab two corners of the duvet along the shorter edge. Then shake like f... , er I  mean shake like billy-o. 

[Funn3r]

16 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Thought it was fascinating that the SA miners had such low market cap/revenue ratios .......

I actually went to a gold mine in South Africa once and it was fascinating.

I bought a fake gold ingot in the gifte shoppe and UK customs absolutely freaked out when I came back and I was stuck there for hours until they grudgingly couldn't find anything to do me for 

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, No Duff said:

Sorry, couldn't resist!  I hear some of the real rich like to put it in a Brinks, etc type of bonded warehouse (ie. in transit) so technically in no mans land.  The most interesting advice for punters was to put it in full view as a doorstop or something!

Build it into a not so classic classic car. Is anyone going to steal your no-wheels 8 year old mondeo on bricks, gold gearbox notwithstanding? 

[Funn3r]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Question for DB and SP:

 

Have either of you looked at Russian stocks?

 

Lots of miners, telecoms and power producers there and the average yield is 6%

 

Any thoughts?

I would really like to get some Russian exposure just to spite the campaign against Russia generally. Their government have supposedly been buying loads of gold for years which makes me think they know something. 

[Cosmic]

1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

Build it into a not so classic classic car. Is anyone going to steal your no-wheels 8 year old mondeo on bricks, gold gearbox notwithstanding? 

Pikeys will  Know from experience! Had a scrap dealer ring me up rather annoyed that he'd come to collect a car shell as arranged but it wasn't on the drive like I'd said... turned out someone had taken it upon themselves to take it an hour earlier using a HiAb.

Thankfully my name was nowhere on any of the paperwork for it  God knows where it ended up...

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

He said this PM, the euro is forever.

Nothing like an official denial to put the shitters up people.

LOL really?

Thats up there with Comical Ali and Ben Bernanke's "Subprime is contained".

[BadAlchemy]

1 hour ago, afly said:

So you guys are paying min. $48 per year in fees to bullion vault? (do not underestimate how stingy I can be )

Yes, from BV website...

0.12% per year on gold, billed monthly and subject to monthly minimum of $4.
0.48% per year on silver, billed monthly and subject to monthly minimum of $8.
0.48% per year on platinum, billed monthly and subject to monthly minimum of $8.

However, the way things are looking I wouldn't get too hung up on the fees. I reckon they could be dwarfed by the potential gain to be made. I like BV too because it should be quick and easy to cash out if needed compared to storing your own coins etc. I have a mixture of both though.

Silver has gone ballistic since the Fed/ECB announcements. 12.94 GBP currently and similar story in USD. For once I bought in at the right time (last Friday when it was about 12.45 GBP). Last time I bought silver was back in I think it was November 2011 when it was over £20 an ounce.. worst time ever LOL!

Maybe it's all the DOSBODDERS buying in pushing the price up too, eh?

Sorry for the over gloating here but for once my timing was spot on and I'm dead chuffed about that

[UnconventionalWisdom]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bullionvault i think are the best.Toronto for the vault.Best to have a vault outside your own country.

Why's that DB? 

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Why's that DB? 

In case you need to leave your home company quickly and they have locked accounts etc.Its a remote risk,but some in Toronto seems good to me.

[Noallegiance]

9 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Interesting that after raising the rate again last night, The Fed has said it will hold a press conference after every meeting starting in January. They had only held one after every alternate meeting and it was only when they had a press conference that they raised rates. Now they can change rates at any meeting, which might add to volatility.

They can always change rates at any meeting.

They can also change rates without a meeting, or a press conference.

[BadAlchemy]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

In case you need to leave your home company quickly and they have locked accounts etc.Its a remote risk,but some in Toronto seems good to me.

Worth also mentioning that to switch between BV vaults is a process of selling out of one and then re-buying into another so worth thinking carefully about that beforehand

https://www.bullionvault.com/help/switch_vault_q.html

I split between London and Zurich (maybe I should have used Toronto too). I don't know what tricks TPTB could pull but I hadn't even considered the 'leaving the country' scenario/eventuality. I'm more of a hunker down with a gun and a tin of beans man myself.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

Yes, from BV website...

0.12% per year on gold, billed monthly and subject to monthly minimum of $4.
0.48% per year on silver, billed monthly and subject to monthly minimum of $8.
0.48% per year on platinum, billed monthly and subject to monthly minimum of $8.

However, the way things are looking I wouldn't get too hung up on the fees. I reckon they could be dwarfed by the potential gain to be made. I like BV too because it should be quick and easy to cash out if needed compared to storing your own coins etc. I have a mixture of both though.

Silver has gone ballistic since the Fed/ECB announcements. 12.94 GBP currently and similar story in USD. For once I bought in at the right time (last Friday when it was about 12.45 GBP). Last time I bought silver was back in I think it was November 2011 when it was over £20 an ounce.. worst time ever LOL!

Maybe it's all the DOSBODDERS buying in pushing the price up too, eh?

Sorry for the over gloating here but for once my timing was spot on and I'm dead chuffed about that

 

Well it AIN'T me pushing the price up!

 

I set up an acc with BV together with allocated dosh AND been waiting for the £ to go back up to around 1.40 to the $, then buy my silver...bugger looks like i missed last weeks LOWER prices lol

 

@BadAlchemy can i ask if ya are buying in £sterling?

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

Worth also mentioning that to switch between BV vaults is a process of selling out of one and then re-buying into another so worth thinking carefully about that beforehand

https://www.bullionvault.com/help/switch_vault_q.html

I split between London and Zurich (maybe I should have used Toronto too). I don't know what tricks TPTB could pull but I hadn't even considered the 'leaving the country' scenario/eventuality. I'm more of a hunker down with a gun and a tin of beans man myself.

Well i am too,id rather take a few of the suckers with me,but at least my family could get away 

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

ECB just said they're stopped QE by Jan, even if Italy is a mess

Anyone not got the memo yet ?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jun/14/ecb-qe-stimulus-mario-draghi-fed-rate-hike-uk-retail-sales-business-live

 

• ECB to end QE bond purchases in December

What would save Italy? How many years??

The heavily indebted have had 10 years to sort their shit out. This goes for governments too.

Theres no point saying Oh Fed are raising too much.

Reality is fed is normalising, not tightening. Its got a hot economy

The Us is not like other developed countries. It does not trade as much. It has the worlds only reserve currency. And its got a lot of a annoyed voters.

Us is no longer willing to free trade for the good of free trade. It wants to get something for it.

You can thank China and Germany for that change.

EU had a chance to break dollar role but really fucked up due to Germanys and PIIGS greed and stupidity.

US changes to trade are just putting them on similar tarrifs as Europe.

[BadAlchemy]

46 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@BadAlchemy can i ask if ya are buying in £sterling?

Yes, and I had the same dilemma as yourself with the exchange rate. In fact, as I was about to buy it decided to drop from 1.34something to 1.33something. Still, perhaps best not to think about what could have been but, instead, of what could still be ...

[ThoughtCriminal]

33 minutes ago, spygirl said:

What would save Italy? How many years??

The heavily indebted have had 10 years to sort their shit out. This goes for governments too.

Theres no point saying Oh Fed are raising too much.

Reality is fed is normalising, not tightening. Its got a hot economy

The Us is not like other developed countries. It does not trade as much. It has the worlds only reserve currency. And its got a lot of a annoyed voters.

Us is no longer willing to free trade for the good of free trade. It wants to get something for it.

You can thank China and Germany for that change.

EU had a chance to break dollar role but really fucked up due to Germanys and PIIGS greed and stupidity.

US changes to trade are just putting them on similar tarrifs as Europe.

This is what the "experts" fail to state due to their hatred of Trump.

 

The US has a trade deficit with every member of the G7, they all have bigger tariffs against the US than vice versa.

 

That's now going to end and they're squealing.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

Yes, and I had the same dilemma as yourself with the exchange rate. In fact, as I was about to buy it decided to drop from 1.34something to 1.33something. Still, perhaps best not to think about what could have been but, instead, of what could still be ...

Thanks, just had a look at the silver chart for 1 year AND it looks like silver been in a sideways trading range with the high @ $18.20 ...i'll give it a few days to see if theres a pull-back then MOVE in!  ...Then once i've bought i bet £/$ go to 1.43! ha

[The Second Mouse]

7 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I take it you aren't looking at me for advice!!!! Hee hee.

However, poking about on the internets following up suggestions made by other contributors, I remembered The Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG) having been mentioned as part of discussions on ToS. It's described as a closed ended investment company, based in Guernsey. What I've found is it has an annual management charge of 1%, an ongoing charge of 0.08% and a dividend yield of 5.78% (but it says under dividend frequency: none. Eh?). Its market capitalisation is £1.1billion. Its spiel says it has a portfolio of 58 investment projects in wind, solar PV and battery storage in the UK, Ireland and France. I'm not a greenie, but I do care about choking the atmosphere with toxic things. To thread contributors: Is this worth a closer look???

TRIG sounds interesting, the thing I can't quite work out is whether the dividend that lands in the bank is 5.78%, or 

5.78%- Annual management charge (1%) - ongoing charge (0.08%)..so 4.7% ?

[Talking Monkey]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,removing more liquidity.No increase in rates for a year though so they say.Interesting to see how the southern countries get debt away now.Corportate debt will prove harder to sell.The Fed has forced the ECBs hand here.Price and risk discovery will start to creep in to European asset markets.

We are halfway to what we expected now.First liquidity is tightened (no QE,or start of QT) and/or interest rate increases (Fed) push up the cost of debt until we enter recession.We then see  a massive debt deflation and they re-start QE pouring money into an already inflation primed economy.

Its a nightmare being locked out of all those ETFs,i have used many for years i cant access now.Its crazy,just another EU disaster.

DB with the Fed raising and hinting at 2 more rises along with QT and todays ECB announcement do you see more of a chance of a deflation first. I recall you had the view that we may go straight to the inflationary phase without the deflation, but as things have been going this last week, do you think its tipping more towards a deflationary event first

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

In case you need to leave your home company quickly and they have locked accounts etc.Its a remote risk,but some in Toronto seems good to me.

Surely Switzerland would be better?

[Alifelessbinary]

I just thought I’d add some information about the Berkeley Group and specifically shorting them. It worth noting that this is just based on market experience and I haven’t looked at their accounts.

While they have been the main perpetrator selling luxury £1000+ sq ft flats off plan during the last boom, over the last few years they have been diversify away from this market. They are now heavily active in zones 2-6 and are focusing on areas where sold prices range between £400-£800 sq ft, which the banks deem ‘domestic’, where as £1000+ is ‘exotic’.

I’m not a huge fan of their product, but Tony Pidgley is a legend of the industry and has perfectly called two crashes previously. He has setup the various internal divisions so that they directly compete with each other and drive results. All bids are cross reference centrally though, as embarrassingly a few years ago they were found to be bidding against each other!

 They are phenomenal lobbiests and are connected at the highest levels. While they are susceptible to a property crash like all of the house builders, I would say there are better targets that are run by muppets. I hate to say but Berkley are impressive operators (machiavellian) in pursuit of returns and are a handful to manage. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had a contingency plan to deliver government targets as a method to fight and survive another day if/when the crash appears.  DYOR as they still might go through the floor but check their development pipeline first as I’m not sure they are as heavily exposed to prime central as they once were.

I managed to make some nice returns after brexit on both Barratt and Perssimon shares the later becoming a bagger in just under 12 months. I’ve since sold them as working in the game and owning a place in London my exposure is already breaking all my diversification rules. I’ve gone pretty bearish on property over the last few months, but the last 10 years have proven time and time again that ‘the markets can stay irrational for a lot longer than you can stay solvent’.

 

 

[Dogtania]

6 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I actually went to a gold mine in South Africa once and it was fascinating.

I bought a fake gold ingot in the gifte shoppe and UK customs absolutely freaked out when I came back and I was stuck there for hours until they grudgingly couldn't find anything to do me for 

Gold reef city Joburg?  The name thinking about it nowadays makes me think of some kind of genetric online casino from bygone time.  Anyway yeah don't think they sold many real gold bars there.

With regards to the mining play I feel they are pretty volatile but obviously - or as a result- from time to time do stupendously.  With them generally seemingly out of favour at the moment it seems logical that this kind of time is the moments to buy.... rather then say when they are all over the front pages.  The one thing that resonates with me is hearing about potential political turmoil coming up in SA.  Are all gold miners heavily invested or reliant on that area?  Or are the ones that are just the best value at the mo?  Honestly nobody knows what will happen over there but seems there is a lot of uncertainty and risk with south Africa and miners to me.  

I am hoping to take some sort of position with a miner in the very near future.  I presently have a fund I have been drip feeding into very small amount.  With a equally small equity play for 2k coming up on the miners I am really not sure whether I should be avoiding the thought of buying 2 (at a push I guess 3 miners) or sticking a bit into a fund with big fees and the rest into a conventionally safer share like vod.   I guess there is bullion vault too for gambling on a shorter window of expectations.  I know as previously discussed some  PM trackers are out of reach nowadays to layman like me (and HL).

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB with the Fed raising and hinting at 2 more rises along with QT and todays ECB announcement do you see more of a chance of a deflation first. I recall you had the view that we may go straight to the inflationary phase without the deflation, but as things have been going this last week, do you think its tipping more towards a deflationary event first

I think a debt deflation is the likely course.Input costs are rising very fast and now leverage is going to start costing more.We expected gold to move higher and it has.Most people think gold goes down when rates increase,but real rates are negative and people are starting to see that to get rates positive it will probably be too high for the size of leverage out there.

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

Indeed! Thanks to all who have signed up in recent days.

I know that the other site tended to be a forum of 2 halves - Off Topic and House prices - with not much overlap,  don't know if it'll be the same here but hope not! 

As ever,  if anyone has any suggestions of what to add  remove or change, for this subforum or the rest of the site, please  do share in the Feedback subforum (at the bottom of the forum list). 

Many thanks Spunko,I found this place after I went to off topic on ToS and you'd all gone.

The way free speech is encouraged here is a credit to you.

If I may suggest a donate button and I would happily.

15 hours ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Wheat & Uranium are things I’ve been adding to recently. Also, OSTK - very interesting (and successful) internet retail company which is looking at developing/implementing Blockchain tech. But unloved at present with all the negativity of the crypto bubble etc but could well be a major growth company. We’re still going to be buying things - even if the deflationary bust happens. Retailers that can be efficient will be the winners.

 

I'm very interested in the soft commodities longer term.Besides the ETF which I presume rolls the futures,are there any companies in the world that could provide exposure to them?

At the mo we have a small investment in Nutrien(the old Potash Saskatch),which I'm looking to build on.My strategy here-and feel free to offer some other ideas-is akin to the old sell spades the gold prospectors,ie if I can't buy a softs producer then I'll try the fertiliser co.

13 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Unloved sector and crazy political situation - could be a hell of a buying opportunity or the whole operation could go up in flames... 

Indeed,the platinum resources in SA/Zim are huge.I'm busy at work the next few days so I'm going to struggle to spend any time on it,but the numbers we're discussing really pricked my interest when you see them in a column besides each other

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

In case you need to leave your home company quickly and they have locked accounts etc.Its a remote risk,but some in Toronto seems good to me.

Surely Switzerland would be better?

Agreed. I figure I can get across the English Channel in a row boat if needs be, and find my way to Zurich. Toronto might be a little more difficult