Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

Game_of_Homes
6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

im getting 3.25% @ nationwide JISA, its cash though not S&S, its full so im still pumping up premium bonds for the spoilt brats.

I was going to go with Nationwide but after reading all the stuff about how they have piled in to BTL, I got nervous (I blame Spyguyirl xD).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
leonardratso
Just now, Game_of_Homes said:

I was going to go with Nationwide but after reading all the stuff about how they have piled in to BTL, I got nervous (I blame Spyguyirl xD).

should be ringfenced for JISAs, and covered to 85K, they were those child thingys (cant remember what they were called) that gordie brun introduced, they gave you £250 to get em started and then were gonna give you £250(per sprog) at age 7, the age 7 once was pulled before i got there, but then it went to JISAs, i should have gone the S&S route, but thought nah, want it to be slow n steady and not too wild for the brats, mistake but nobodies got a working crystal ball, no matter, carry on and suck it up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
30 minutes ago, Thorn said:

+1.

My gut feeling is same re the timing. The thing to do would be -same as after the GFC in Ireland at least -expect house prices to drop for a certain length of time- 2 years?

2012 was the bottom I think.

I also agree with you about sounding like an oddball out there with civilians ie everybody who doesn’t read this thread and it’s older sister on TOS. If I ever try to discuss What Will Happen Everybody When The World Says No More Tick? I just get silence.

...its like nobody any more can conceive of another crash and they think it will all just go on like normal. 

I’ve now got about 25% miners-silver/gold, 25% utilities and hopefully their steady dividends, 25%TLT/IBTL, and 25% in trackers and Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust with stop-loss sell triggers at 14% under the trackers and SMT.

I am also thinking of putting a new layer on the tinfoil helmet and over the next month I will be turning all my sensors up to the next level.

It is called Jumpy.

 

xDxDxD

Hey Thorn...have ya got on to the yellow reduced stickers at the various supermarkets?
 
I recommend YOU get a CHEAP push-bike of gumtree ...strap a reinforced cardboard box on the rack AND ya good to go!
 
Here's a training video for ya folks!
 
 
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On the subject of investment returns...just saw an apartment for sale that's a bit cheaper than usual; I think it's a repo.

But it's still £150K, with a yearly rates+maintenance fee bill of at least £2500.

Whereas I rent my flat, which is only 10m2 smaller and in a better location, for £500 a month all in. No rates, no maintenance fees, no building insurance...

Aaaaand this is why I haven't spent my savings on a flat. The numbers don't make sense folks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Game_of_Homes. In leui of dB I will say one potential industry is solar which is clearly in the ascendancy. 

Also PM's in general are arguably undervalued at the moment?  In so far as the macro cycle being discussed here these commodities should benefit if we come into a massive amount of government sponsored/ encouraged infrastructure spending.  

I also go by the simple idea that different things like for example silver will have a day in the sun at some point whenever that will be.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Game_of_Homes
49 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

should be ringfenced for JISAs, and covered to 85K, they were those child thingys (cant remember what they were called) that gordie brun introduced, they gave you £250 to get em started and then were gonna give you £250(per sprog) at age 7, the age 7 once was pulled before i got there, but then it went to JISAs, i should have gone the S&S route, but thought nah, want it to be slow n steady and not too wild for the brats, mistake but nobodies got a working crystal ball, no matter, carry on and suck it up.

I've just switched one from a S&S CTF (Child Trust Fund) that has averaged about 6% since it opened into the NS&I Junior Cash ISA. I figure it's better to have 2.5% of something definite than worrying all those years of gains are going to be lost if the stock market crashes. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

On the subject of investment returns...just saw an apartment for sale that's a bit cheaper than usual; I think it's a repo.

But it's still £150K, with a yearly rates+maintenance fee bill of at least £2500.

Whereas I rent my flat, which is only 10m2 smaller and in a better location, for £500 a month all in. No rates, no maintenance fees, no building insurance...

Aaaaand this is why I haven't spent my savings on a flat. The numbers don't make sense folks!

Aye but renting for life versus maybe own outright and no more rent payments then Joe?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One percent
1 minute ago, Thorn said:

Aye but renting for life versus maybe own outright and no more rent payments then Joe?

I like your avatar. Well done on getting it sorted so quickly. 👍

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

xDxDxD

Hey Thorn...have ya got on to the yellow reduced stickers at the various supermarkets?
 
I recommend YOU get a CHEAP push-bike of gumtree ...strap a reinforced cardboard box on the rack AND ya good to go!
 
Here's a training video for ya folks!
 
 
 

Some video there- all the skills needed for TEOTWAWKI are all here in the aisles

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Aye but renting for life versus maybe own outright and no more rent payments then Joe?

Hard to know what to do in the long run!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso
8 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Hard to know what to do in the long run!

most of us have a plan for that 'long run', its called dropping dead, then you wont need to worry much about renting or buying or even how much money youve got/dont have.

Its a great leveller effects both billionaires and tramps alike, any creed, religion or sex, doesnt care.

Mid term though, thats a problem.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s all a game I reckon.

And Change keeps coming. I read that in California they had to decide to introduce big property taxes once loads of people owned outright.

They need them taxes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

PatronizingGit

Main difference this time, as I see it, is that China will not be in a position to take the baton and go on a yuge credit splurge. Who will instead (if anyone)...beats me.

Karl Denninger still thinks 'mathematically' the US economy will collapse by 2020 due to the ever-increasing cost of healthcare. 

NHS is farther behind in that regard, but the trend line (expenditure growth permanently exceeding both economic growth and wage growth, is the same)

Tories seem all in though. Relaxing immigration controls even more, return of dodgy(er) mortgages. Local MPs doing their bit to ensure more public money is shoved into property...

https://www.chad.co.uk/news/the-council-should-buy-unused-properties-in-mansfield-and-bring-them-back-to-use-says-mp-1-9204013

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Orpington_Madness said:

Timing could be quite important with this - particularly if you are looking to buy a house (I'm thinking a good time would be towards the end of any deflation event - with as a reasonable amount of deposit and as long a fixed term mortgage than can be obtained)

It's all crystal ball stuff but it a deflation event isn't evident in the period Q4, 2018 - Q1, 2019, I would be concerned that we might go straight to reflation.

My game plan, negotiate hard reasonably early in the housing bust panic depending on whether my target price is reached (2012 prices + RPI) which combined with the BTL sell off could be quite short and sharp, they'll be quick to reinstate the TFS again and props (but to a lesser extent) so the market will stabilise sooner, it may stagnate for a quite a while after but aim to get a 5 or 7 year fix whilst they're still around before inflation hits. I'd be amazed given the leverage that we go straight from Brexit into a healthy inflationary period, I think there really has to be a purge first, as seen in previous credit bubble busts, although there are huge infrastructure projects already on the way, these are foundations and will pick up pace considerably 2020 onwards. We may be first for the deflationary bust along with the Eurozone, US gets hit a little later? Or does it all stem from there?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

Main difference this time, as I see it, is that China will not be in a position to take the baton and go on a yuge credit splurge. Who will instead (if anyone)...beats me.

Agreed, they're already starting to lag behind the US and I think there's far worse to come as the trade "dispute" escalates, some misplacing their faith in India to save the day this time around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Agreed, they're already starting to lag behind the US and I think there's far worse to come as the trade "dispute" escalates, some misplacing their faith in India to save the day this time around.

I didn't realise folks had their faith in India, I can't see it myself this time around as well, maybe a decade or so from now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RickyBacker
8 hours ago, Dogtania said:

@Game_of_Homes. In leui of dB I will say one potential industry is solar which is clearly in the ascendancy. 

Also PM's in general are arguably undervalued at the moment?  In so far as the macro cycle being discussed here these commodities should benefit if we come into a massive amount of government sponsored/ encouraged infrastructure spending.  

I also go by the simple idea that different things like for example silver will have a day in the sun at some point whenever that will be.  

Hi all, long time lurker from the other site and first post on here. Firstly, thank you all for such a wealth of information regarding the possible path of the global economy. I just wanted to add something regarding the use of silver in industry, in particular the solar industry. There is no doubt that solar is becoming more and more important, and indeed the use of silver in this industry has been increasing over the last decade. Just be aware of disruptive technology. Graphene is one disruptive material that could really shake up a number of markets due to its extraordinary properties. I won't go into all the details of graphene here, but well worth a research if you are unaware. One particular stock that has saved my portfolio is a small British company Versarien (VRS). I bought it last year at 15p and it's currently sitting at 1.25... I sold some recently as there is a lot of 'blue sky' in the price at the moment. If it drops I may buy more, if it continues its upward path I'm happy with my holding. Worth some time researching though if you believe in the technology.

Back to silver though, I'm invested via miners and physical mainly due to my belief of the return to sound money after the 'event' It's certainly an interesting time to live in and I hope that I can continue to learn from all your posts and I'll try to contribute where I can.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clueless Imbecile

Thanks to all who've posted their opinions on here. Fascinating thread!

I'm in a right dilemma at the moment...

I'm in my forties, been saving & investing in stockmarket index trackers for a while. Living cheaply at my parents' house (yeah, I know, sad at my age!). No idea when I'll want/need to buy a house. I don't fancy BTL because I don't want hassles with managing it. I don't fancy living on my own nor taking in a lodger. I don't fancy leaving a house empty. It just doesn't suit me to buy a house right now, although that might change in future.

My options seem to be:

 

(1) maintain an asset mix such as:

60% index trackers
10% stock picks (gold/silver miners, telco's, and other stuff that might benefit from reflation)
10% IBTL
5% PMs (mostly silver)
15% cash

 

(2) Go all in on index trackers, and simply plan to rent for the rest of my life once I'm no longer able to live at my parents' house. Maybe a big enough tracker(s) fund could generate income to pay my rent?

For example:

95% index trackers
5% cash (to cover emergencies such as needing to get my car fixed/replaced)

 

(3) Scale back my investments and hold more cash in the hope of buying a house cheaper in the event of a crash (suffer crap returns on cash in the meantime).

For example:

50% index trackers
50% cash

 

What to do?!

Currently I'm leaning towards option (1), but am a bit nervous about going against what I've read in books (Don't try to time the market, Passive beats most acitve, stock picking is a mug's game, etc).

Those who are anticipating a boom in the share price of gold & silver miners, do you think this will happen before or after a house price crash?


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

On the subject of investment returns...just saw an apartment for sale that's a bit cheaper than usual; I think it's a repo.

But it's still £150K, with a yearly rates+maintenance fee bill of at least £2500.

Whereas I rent my flat, which is only 10m2 smaller and in a better location, for £500 a month all in. No rates, no maintenance fees, no building insurance...

Aaaaand this is why I haven't spent my savings on a flat. The numbers don't make sense folks!

Yes JD but as we all know renting is dead money....come on catch up and get yourself a 100% mortgage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No Duff (troll)
52 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Thanks to all who've posted their opinions on here. Fascinating thread!

I'm in a right dilemma at the moment...

While I have high cash balances and so also have a dilema but viz inflation, insitutional risk, and investment growth instead!  Take a ticket and choose your poison!

I wonder if you are in a better position than me!  Some model portfolios (search the net for your favourite) may say you are too high in equities versus say bonds but then bonds right now?  That's kinda my problem too.

My bro brought a house very late in life and then only briefly.  He had the investment income to rent ok and no kids to worry about inheritance wise.  Maybe mostly annuities from back in the day so sitting very happily.

And then there's having precious time with your parents and being around to care for them if that's your thing.  Like in the old days.  Maybe only house builders and estate agents have valid reasons to tell us to buy!  No one right answer.

PS:  My property funds have c.60% gains.  OK, no leverage like buying residential property, but they are free and clear and easy to sell.

PPS: All at your own risk, DYOR, etc but then I'm not recommending anything which probably makes this post useless if you got this far!  Apologies!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Thanks to all who've posted their opinions on here. Fascinating thread!

I'm in a right dilemma at the moment...

I'm in my forties, been saving & investing in stockmarket index trackers for a while. Living cheaply at my parents' house (yeah, I know, sad at my age!). No idea when I'll want/need to buy a house. I don't fancy BTL because I don't want hassles with managing it. I don't fancy living on my own nor taking in a lodger. I don't fancy leaving a house empty. It just doesn't suit me to buy a house right now, although that might change in future.

My options seem to be:

 

(1) maintain an asset mix such as:

60% index trackers
10% stock picks (gold/silver miners, telco's, and other stuff that might benefit from reflation)
10% IBTL
5% PMs (mostly silver)
15% cash

 

(2) Go all in on index trackers, and simply plan to rent for the rest of my life once I'm no longer able to live at my parents' house. Maybe a big enough tracker(s) fund could generate income to pay my rent?

For example:

95% index trackers
5% cash (to cover emergencies such as needing to get my car fixed/replaced)

 

(3) Scale back my investments and hold more cash in the hope of buying a house cheaper in the event of a crash (suffer crap returns on cash in the meantime).

For example:

50% index trackers
50% cash

 

What to do?!

Currently I'm leaning towards option (1), but am a bit nervous about going against what I've read in books (Don't try to time the market, Passive beats most acitve, stock picking is a mug's game, etc).

Those who are anticipating a boom in the share price of gold & silver miners, do you think this will happen before or after a house price crash?


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

Firstly it's not stigma living with your parents when you are still 40, in some (developing?) cultures it's still the norm, its just in our consumerist culture it has been propagated you have failed if you still do...much in the same way if you are sill renting at 40

But to the dilemma...

1. Only buy when you think it is worth the money...where I am a 3bed sells for half a mil...if it dropped 100k people would be queuing up but 400k for a pile of bricks still seems ridiculous to me....especially as you could travel the world on that for about 40 years!..so put the sum in perspective.

2. House is an illiquid asset. If you plan to stay in the area (and your work /job security allows) fine, but renting allows quick moving/choices to be made.

3. If hpc happens (and happens quickly) cash allows you to act quickly...and so what you currently lose in poor interests rates is recovered in beig able to act on lower purchase prices.

 

Question regarding 3. above...is it fair to assume that if we have the recession scenario DB has postulated above and house prices crash that shares would do the same?...thus meaning if you put a high% -of your wealth in equities and then wanted to house buy you could take a hit on your equities investment?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
24 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

you could travel the world on that for about 40 years!..so put the sum in perspective.

I'm going to use this...sums up how bonkers the situation is. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
26 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

renting allows quick moving/choices to be made.

Also means you have more ammo when asking for raises. I've been blunt stating that I really enjoy my job and get on great with the management, but the rents are stupidly high in the SE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gordie Lastchance
9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

My game plan, negotiate hard reasonably early in the housing bust panic depending on whether my target price is reached (2012 prices + RPI) which combined with the BTL sell off could be quite short and sharp, they'll be quick to reinstate the TFS again and props (but to a lesser extent) so the market will stabilise sooner, it may stagnate for a quite a while after but aim to get a 5 or 7 year fix whilst they're still around before inflation hits. I'd be amazed given the leverage that we go straight from Brexit into a healthy inflationary period, I think there really has to be a purge first, as seen in previous credit bubble busts, although there are huge infrastructure projects already on the way, these are foundations and will pick up pace considerably 2020 onwards. We may be first for the deflationary bust along with the Eurozone, US gets hit a little later? Or does it all stem from there?

It's hellish to think how bad things have become when your target is 2012 prices plus RPI. For us to have been conditioned so much by raging house price inflation to be left thinking that that somehow is a low price/bargain point to get in at is nuts. The only reason I found ToS in about 2007 or so was that I had done a web search along the lines of "are house prices due to fall" after the wild rises up to that point. And to think I was bewildered by the insanity of prices back then... 

I'm not sure if it was DB who said something here or on ToS about coming events potentially providing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity (or words to that effect) for investors generally or those looking more specifically at precious metals/mining.

Dare we hope that the opportunity of a lifetime also somehow be extended to take in property (for those wanting it as a home, not a business)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...