Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Thorn]

OK so sorry to be a bit slow here but does this mean a flood of more money which will probably just inflate asset prices more?

[DurhamBorn]

This is all as expected.The next cycle will be reflationary because the seeds are already sown and during a credit deflation they will pump like crazy.The next cycle they will lose control.The BOE,ECB,FED only control short rates.They have no control over long rates.The ECB has had slight short term control by buying bonds,but that has created an even bigger disaster.The EU is on the edge of breaking up due to it.

The banks will access that money during and after a crisis,but it wont be stopping one.

Was it on the other thread i said the BOE would print £500 billion,i think it was.The Fed will print $10 trillion.Silver will see $200 (maybe $300) Gold $7000 (maybe $10,000+).

 

[lemontree]

THey know a crash is inevitable, so the extra capital will make it eaiser for the central bank to react quickly. As DB said before, this time governments may not act as quickly as in the 2007 financial crisis. It is possible to see that in the UK, rate goes up a bit and the central bank lending up as well. The money policy role becomes neutral which could minimise the negative impact on asset maket such as housing and stock.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

11 hours ago, Option5 said:

1994 Lancia and 1956 Ford Escort.

Both are reliable.

Say...do ya still have a 1956 Ford Escort 

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Fiat Doblo,1.3 diesel.I only do around 3k a year miles in it.I need a van for my business,but as i only want to make the tax allowance i need one that doesnt cost me much.I only use it to pick my stock up from storage and bring it home 6 miles there and back and when i go stargazing up the moors.

THANKS!

[Option5]

Just now, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Say...do ya still have a 1956 Ford Escort 

THANKS!

Yes I do. (actually we do, it's shared between my Uncle and me)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just now, Option5 said:

Yes I do. (actually we do, it's shared between my Uncle and me)

do you use the car? must be a GREAT buzz to stick ya 2 fingers up at the RIP-OFF Road tax!

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

do you use the car? must be a GREAT buzz to stick ya 2 fingers up at the RIP-OFF Road tax!

Not a lot, it struggles in modern traffic 0-60 was 37 seconds when new, max speed 70 (yeah right)

It's just a bit too retro for everyday use.

[leonardratso]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is all as expected.The next cycle will be reflationary because the seeds are already sown and during a credit deflation they will pump like crazy.The next cycle they will lose control.The BOE,ECB,FED only control short rates.They have no control over long rates.The ECB has had slight short term control by buying bonds,but that has created an even bigger disaster.The EU is on the edge of breaking up due to it.

The banks will access that money during and after a crisis,but it wont be stopping one.

Was it on the other thread i said the BOE would print £500 billion,i think it was.The Fed will print $10 trillion.Silver will see $200 (maybe $300) Gold $7000 (maybe $10,000+).

 

 

genitalmen, start your engines.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

29 minutes ago, lemontree said:

THey know a crash is inevitable, so the extra capital will make it eaiser for the central bank to react quickly. As DB said before, this time governments may not act as quickly as in the 2007 financial crisis. It is possible to see that in the UK, rate goes up a bit and the central bank lending up as well. The money policy role becomes neutral which could minimise the negative impact on asset maket such as housing and stock.

EXACTLY!

 

Do you guys know who owns the BOE & FED ?

 

Well those crooks are the f***ers that are increasing their GOLD holdings!

Maybe time to upload a 400 page book on this subject, SOME will say "conspiracy" ya NOT when you do the research and find the truth depending how far ya go down the rabbit hole! However since sancho panza said that my last book upload would get him depressed!...maybe not a good idea

[Game_of_Homes]

@DurhamBorn,  quick question. Do you think we will see pound-dollar parity in the near future?

[MrXxx]

12 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Not a lot, it struggles in modern traffic 0-60 was 37 seconds when new, max speed 70 (yeah right)

It's just a bit too retro for everyday use.

For a moment there I thought I had clicked on the Piston heads website...can we get back to the menial things in life like preserving our capital and leave the important things like "cars, birds and football" to the mens health webpages :_)))

[Gordie Lastchance]

While I've been pinballing off various websites doing my homework set by you folksters, I ended up at simplywall.st. "Become a better Investor" is its slogan - me? ha ha. Anyhow, as I've been lucky enough to be given links to helpful sites from other members on here, I thought I'd throw it into the mix. Many/most of you might have used it/use it, but just trying to do my bit for the common good. I'm on a free 14-day trial. Didn't have to give any bank details, just an email address.

Not saying that I understand any of the figures, like!!!!

 

[No Duff (troll)]

Love this thread.  One minute reading about the forthcomming crash of the age, the next about the 1956 Ford Escort!  No problem that though, once I tried to stop connecting them!

[Gordie Lastchance]

1 minute ago, No Duff said:

Love this thread.  One minute reading about the forthcomming crash of the age, the next about the 1956 Ford Escort!  No problem that though, once I tried to stop connecting them

I have a 2007 Fiesta with 1960s brakes owing to a well-known ABS fault with this kinda car. Like to hear more?! 

[No Duff (troll)]

3 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I have a 2007 Fiesta with 1960s brakes owing to a well-known ABS fault with this kinda car. Like to hear more?! 

☺️  A bit new though mate!

[Gordie Lastchance]

1 minute ago, No Duff said:

☺️  A bit new though mate!

Not when you're trying to stop in a hurry! Reminds me of my old dear's Hillman Imp from way back - it finally came to a halt when you entered the next county.

I remember seven of us being crammed into it. And that was in the old days of huge, armoured baby seats that took up half of the rear bench. I'm so lardy I'd take up ALL of the rear bench nowadays. 

[Thorn]

13 hours ago, harp said:

Haven't you learn't anything? Forget funds and trackers. If you are worried stay in cash. Haha. I have no idea what I'm doing to be honest but I'm guilty of (way) over trading! I started with £100k in Feb/March spilt into 10 shares as I said on ToS. I made some good calls (thanks DB) and some bad (me being a dick) However, it turned out well. Sold a few and made 15/20% gains but also sold some thinking they were on the way back down, not the case, so I moved on to the next share. So far that £100k has turned into £118k. Not bad at all I reckon all things considered.

Now I'm in BT, Vodafone, Centrica, Sibanye and Harmony. I sold my IBTL at 345 but I'll get back in soon. I have no doubt these will all go down but I've decided to just hold and not keep checking my HL app every few hours like a newbie (which I am)

What will be will be.

Beefed up my bits of these this morning. Reflation and dividends is my new sweet spot.

I’m flicking into the HL site too much too and want to wean myself off it a bit.

might start trying to hide the phone on myself. 

Somebody told me the way to stop smoking is get two of those nicotine patches. Put one over each lens of your glasses and then you can’t find your fags.

 

[A_P]

3 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Beefed up my bits of these this morning. Reflation and dividends is my new sweet spot.

I’m flicking into the HL site too much too and want to wean myself off it a bit.

might start trying to hide the phone on myself. 

Somebody told me the way to stop smoking is get two of those nicotine patches. Put one over each lens of your glasses and then you can’t find your fags.

 

I find it's best not to even install the apps. Use a combination of secure passwords and 2 factor authentication (if its offered)which takes away the ease of logging in. Perhaps If I had gone all in with my funds rather than drip feeding I would be more on edge with the movements. However going slow and steady with a plan, only checking once a month (payday) to do that months purchases makes it easier for me.

[King Penda]

the thing is when is this crash going to start and how fast will gold and silver rise ,ie will we have time to get in and hopefully at least trebble bag.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is all as expected.The next cycle will be reflationary because the seeds are already sown and during a credit deflation they will pump like crazy.The next cycle they will lose control.The BOE,ECB,FED only control short rates.They have no control over long rates.The ECB has had slight short term control by buying bonds,but that has created an even bigger disaster.The EU is on the edge of breaking up due to it.

The banks will access that money during and after a crisis,but it wont be stopping one.

Was it on the other thread i said the BOE would print £500 billion,i think it was.The Fed will print $10 trillion.Silver will see $200 (maybe $300) Gold $7000 (maybe $10,000+).

 

DB.  It's all so hard to believe that we'll see this deflatin event.

Are you sure the 2007/2008 collapse wasnt the deflation event ?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

53 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Love this thread.  One minute reading about the forthcomming crash of the age, the next about the 1956 Ford Escort!  No problem that though, once I tried to stop connecting them!

You dont think making the £ worthless will cause a crash.

This thing is baked in now.  There is no way back

[No Duff (troll)]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

You dont think making the £ worthless will cause a crash.

This thing is baked in now.  There is no way back

You must have quoted the wrong post.

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

DB.  It's all so hard to believe that we'll see this deflatin event.

Are you sure the 2007/2008 collapse wasnt the deflation event ?

well thats the problem,we had a crash which i dont think weve ever been out of we just went to vertualy zero interest rates and they printed billions the only noticable thing for your avarage joe was a drop in house prices which soon recovered petrol droped in price which seems to be be slowly heading back towards 1.45 which it was at around 6-7 years ago.and a few bigish named shops on the hight street crashed or are in trouble and pubs seem quieter,everyone thinks im nuts at work predicting an armagedon type crash

[TheCountOfNowhere]

9 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

well thats the problem,we had a crash which i dont think weve ever been out of we just went to vertualy zero interest rates and they printed billions the only noticable thing for your avarage joe was a drop in house prices which soon recovered petrol droped in price which seems to be be slowly heading back towards 1.45 which it was at around 6-7 years ago.and a few bigish named shops on the hight street crashed or are in trouble and pubs seem quieter,everyone thinks im nuts at work predicting an armagedon type crash

I agree with that, they're masked the depression ( for some ) with their magicked up cash ( look at the t**ts in their leased Q7s and Jags ) but it's having a really bad effect on people and making things pretty unstable.

The Public sector and the housing bubble is THE economy which just recirculates money, as you give more to the people at the top the people at the bottom get less.

As the top gets more and more the imbalance is getting worse, this imbalance is what will cause a crash.

When the next phase of the crash come, and this has always been my worry, the bottom will be left with worthless bits of paper ( numbers on a screen ) while the rich still have all the assets.

Will the assets crash for us to buy with our bits of paper, or will they just go to the moon with money printing and lower IRS ?

The actions of the US  and now the ECB gives me some hope they will be forced to do the right thing, but as of today, right now, these evil c**ts are not going to stop and money is becoming worthless.

 

As far as I can tell we are in the railway mania again. We'll see a 2nd collapse and the banks will be regulated.  People like property portfolio phils actions should be brought to the fore and see him jailed as a scape goat.  A chancellor using OUR money to boost his own investments....it's an easy sell to the masses.

 

One can but hope.

 

 

[King Penda]

is it haveing a bad effect though ? those people with 40k cars on pcp for £300 a month arnt feeling any pain yet.come the crash they will but ive been waiting for it for 6 years.no sighns of it yet nothing......