Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Gordie Lastchance]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I agree on that.The FTSE is probably the best market if your going to use a tracker for the reasons you mention.In fact for people who really cant be bothered 20% treasuries,60% FTSE tracker and 20% PM miners wouldnt be such a poor idea.

What really does amaze me is reading the media and share tipping journals etc who have no understanding at all,im talking zero of the fact everything they see and experience is because we have been in a dis-inflation cycle since 1982.They think heavy investment in capital assets is a bad thing,companies with less assets,but a nice idea a good thing.They have zero understanding about inflation and how once it moves up capital assets that saw companies struggle for 20 years suddenly produce massive cash flow.

I must of read 20 times in the last month how the telcos are over-valued etc.They are looking the wrong way as usual at key inflection points.Vod turn over about £42 billion.10% inflation would add around £3 billion to their free cash flow.Their depreciation is pretty much set in stone.

Its like my friend says.He knew about a dozen people who understood an inflation cycle.Nine of them are in the graveyard.The highly leveraged will be in for an education soon they never forget.

Hi DB, where do you think transports (First Group/Stagecoach) might figure in all this? Have they the assets you're speaking about, which will come into play when the dung hits the spinning thing? Aren't they well placed to pick up customers when inflation sparks the mass return of flash cars on the never-never? Looking at them, do they fall into the definition of an unloved sector?

I know, questions, questions...

[Thorn]

11 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Hey, bingo, think you might be defining attributes of hard assets.  You would surely have an asset if you had built a similar eco-system around you.  Nothing wrong with a bit a gold as well though!  John Kay you say, thanks!  

PS:  Which John Kay please - quite a few out there!

Look for John Kay - The Long and the Short of It. Really good read. Says stuff like the markets are not and never can be totally efficient. 

 

[Stuffed]

18 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

i just found the above by googling NOT in HL serach box...

Yes, and it does show up in the search box.

[No Duff (troll)]

17 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

i just found the above by googling NOT in HL serach box...

It certainly has a KID.

It's weird though because after so much hassle from Durhamborn (wink!) I went to buy some IBTL but the iShares website takes you to IDTL, only for the HL website to take you to IBTL.  Feck knows what I ended up buying!  But pretty certain it was some long US treasuries!

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

Hi DB, where do you think transports (First Group/Stagecoach) might figure in all this? Have they the assets you're speaking about, which will come into play when the dung hits the spinning thing? Aren't they well placed to pick up customers when inflation sparks the mass return of flash cars on the never-never? Looking at them, do they fall into the definition of an unloved sector?

I know, questions, questions...

I like them yes.The problem they have at the moment is nobody likes them to make a profit.Lots of political talk around them.Going forward though urban areas will move more and more to that sort of transport.I think they depreciate their buses over 10 years,though it might be worth digging deeper into that.We might see a future government introduce a young persons bus pass at some point.They are hated right now,thats good enough for me to buy.First Group have a lot of debt though.

[No Duff (troll)]

3 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Look for John Kay - The Long and the Short of It

Thanks.

"A guide to finance and investment for normally intelligent people who aren't in the industry".  Like the cut of his jib!  Think I'm going to enjoy this.

7 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Says stuff like the markets are not and never can be totally efficient.

If they were, there wouldn't be a load of flash w*nkers in the City.  Corruption has always stopped efficiency. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Hey DB, just dipped my toe into Sibanye Gold ...its UP nearly 5% today!

Sibanye Gold  have been going up since Monday, is that due to all the folks on this thread BUYING?

...maybe i've bought at the TOP

 

[No Duff (troll)]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

First Group have a lot of debt though.

And poor FCF?

[Gordie Lastchance]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

I like them yes.The problem they have at the moment is nobody likes them to make a profit.Lots of political talk around them.Going forward though urban areas will move more and more to that sort of transport.I think they depreciate their buses over 10 years,though it might be worth digging deeper into that.We might see a future government introduce a young persons bus pass at some point.They are hated right now,thats good enough for me to buy.First Group have a lot of debt though.

First's boss resigned/was encouraged to go(?) recently as the company crashed into a £327million annual loss. That came after the company had snubbed a takeover by US private equity group Apollo. With him out of the way, might there be another crack at them?

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Hey DB, just dipped my toe into Sibanye Gold ...its UP nearly 5% today!

Sibanye Gold  have been going up since Monday, is that due to all the folks on this thread BUYING?

...maybe i've bought at the TOP

 

Who knows what the short term top is,you might ten bag though if you just put your feet up and relax .Its likely the rand gold price going to 550k,they can make about 14% margin at that price,it was 6% a few weeks ago.Crucial to them given the debts.Third time iv owned them,they were kind the first two.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, No Duff said:

And poor FCF?

Yes,i think the industry might consolidate though or attract private equity takeouts.Rail is the headache,but government will have to change the way contracts are done.One interesting side is government might introduce a young persons bus pass at some point.

[Stuffed]

23 minutes ago, No Duff said:

It certainly has a KID.

It's weird though because after so much hassle from Durhamborn (wink!) I went to buy some IBTL but the iShares website takes you to IDTL, only for the HL website to take you to IBTL.  Feck knows what I ended up buying!  But pretty certain it was some long US treasuries!

On the iShares website, view the factsheet’s Dealing Information box on Page 2, and you’ll see that IDTL is in USD and IBTL is GBP.

There’s a lot of these iShares ETFs with multiple codes. I’ve found it useful to make a list comparing iShares with HL to figure out what’s what.

[No Duff (troll)]

25 minutes ago, Stuffed said:

Yes, and it does show up in the search box.

Something else I can't get to work in my non-Microsoft browser.

[No Duff (troll)]

8 minutes ago, Stuffed said:

On the iShares website, view the factsheet’s Dealing Information box on Page 2, and you’ll see that IDTL is in USD and IBTL is GBP.

There’s a lot of these iShares ETFs with multiple codes. I’ve found it useful to make a list comparing iShares with HL to figure out what’s what.

Thanks and shame on Durhamborn for being so....well......American!

Hey guys, turns out I've got a slice of the action too!

Not these miners though, never, ever, nada, well maybe just a wafer thin slice......

[No Duff (troll)]

15 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

First's boss resigned/was encouraged to go(?) recently as the company crashed into a £327million annual loss. That came after the company had snubbed a takeover by US private equity group Apollo. With him out of the way, might there be another crack at them?

I thought private equity turned on the debt, not bought a debt laden company from the start?

[Gordie Lastchance]

12 minutes ago, No Duff said:

I thought private equity turned on the debt, not bought a debt laden company from the start?

So what do they know that others don't? And is this a reflection of how mad things are that even private equity will buy just about anything?

[leonardratso]

my sibayne (ADR x4) is doing good, eldorado no so good. SSLV - meh - up n down, up n down.

At least they are not supertanking like crapto coins.

[harp]

2 hours ago, No Duff said:

Something else I can't get to work in my non-Microsoft browser.

HL seems to be playing up today. Nothing being updated.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Hey DB, just dipped my toe into Sibanye Gold ...its UP nearly 5% today!

Sibanye Gold  have been going up since Monday, is that due to all the folks on this thread BUYING?

...maybe i've bought at the TOP

 

Just got a £15 lump of topside of beef joint for £3.50,5% steak mince £1 a pack instead of £4,packs of 4 chicken fillets £1,potatoes 20p,sprouts 10p,carrots,10p,cabbage 15p,3 pizza 30p,im cooking a dinner for 8 sunday after the football with the beef,it will cost £5 for 8 ,double cream 10p,just made some butter with it.

Freezer is rammed,thats 2 full,but im off to see one in the morning £40 for a big one on Gumtree,i need 3 now ,there was 5 lots of milk 10p i could of had,wont slip up with lack of space next time 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

6 hours ago, Game_of_Homes said:

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/21/next-central-bank-qe-unwind-bank-of-england/

Read that... Great if true.

 

Feels like the lying ####s are just talking up the market again...surprised anyone believes it.

 

How does this fit in with the unelected BOEs newer powers....doesn't does it...really?

Criminal fraudsters now in charge of the UK afaict

[leonardratso]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just got a £15 lump of topside of beef joint for £3.50,5% steak mince £1 a pack instead of £4,packs of 4 chicken fillets £1,potatoes 20p,sprouts 10p,carrots,10p,cabbage 15p,3 pizza 30p,im cooking a dinner for 8 sunday after the football with the beef,it will cost £5 for 8 ,double cream 10p,just made some butter with it.

Freezer is rammed,thats 2 full,but im off to see one in the morning £40 for a big one on Gumtree,i need 3 now ,there was 5 lots of milk 10p i could of had,wont slip up with lack of space next time 

steady there, sounds steep. £5 for 8 people, surely you can include the dog and maybe next doors cat in that (not to eat of course, but to feed). Anyway, thats enough of me reading about your extravagant decadence, im off to the town square to see if i cant make a whole piece of bread from the crumbs left over by the pigeons that people have been feeding them today.

'old gil's gonna make it this time'

[Stuffed]

Is Mark Carney talking about a global financial reset?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/finger-on-the-button-boe-governor-says-england-is-preparing-for-the-global-financial-system-reset/

[azzuri82]

I'm very tempted to buy a house - but the prices in Edinburgh are absolutely eye-watering at the moment. For a decent 2/3 bedroom flat in a desirable area with decent schools is £300k - don't know whether to buy (in cash) or wait.

We could potentially wait 18 months and get a much bigger/nicer place - but I/we aren't particularly flashy people - we don't want a massive house - we like living relatively modestly. I suppose the same flat could be 50% of the nominal price it is now in a couple of years - it'll mean using most of our savings/cash pile to buy something - is that a better strategy than having everything in cash/bonds/equities waiting on a crash?

[King Penda]

10 hours ago, No Duff said:

 

To be free, you must first free yourself.

to some extent thats the plan,i realised that after a lifetime of fking about what bit you have can be lost very rapidly or someone you trust can get you in a load of debt.the key off course is independance and that means buying an house on your own,but your not independant until its paid for there are still to many variables ie interest rates,work,payrates ,illness etc etc.hence i started to conform a bit clear the debt then buy a humble terrace in the shit hole that is stoke.i have £15400 left on the morgage after 5 years,once thats cleared im going back to fking about i hope,not that i stoped in the last 5 years ive had 5 jobs lol.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

to some extent thats the plan,i realised that after a lifetime of fking about what bit you have can be lost very rapidly or someone you trust can get you in a load of debt.the key off course is independance and that means buying an house on your own,but your not independant until its paid for there are still to many variables ie interest rates,work,payrates ,illness etc etc.hence i started to conform a bit clear the debt then buy a humble terrace in the shit hole that is stoke.i have £15400 left on the morgage after 5 years,once thats cleared im going back to fking about i hope,not that i stoped in the last 5 years ive had 5 jobs lol.

Lot of chatter about buying a house on here...no one mentioning 'intetest'. There is/was only a small golden window when buying a house in the last 20 years was better than renting, esp when u look at performance of other assets/investments.

 

I fear the property owning bulls(hitters) will just never get it.

 

Come conscription time/10% property tax time, you'll wish you'd rented.

 

Buying is the ultimate dead money.

 

Its like waking up to find your back on TOS