Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

went to wales once, didnt like it, too many germans, the signs were alll in german as well.

I was high on something so it might have been hamburg.

[azzuri82]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Taleb worth a read is he?

Depends. I think the guy is a genius. He's arrogant as hell but I like people who are balls out with their opinions and have nowhere to hide. His entire world view is centred around the fact that people should only profess opinions if they have 'skin in the game', otherwise keep your mouth shut. i.e. watch what people do, not what they say. His hatred of IYI's (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) is heartening, he sees the modern professional politicians and economists for what they are, a bunch of shysters that don't live in the real world, take few risks but yet gain great rewards from risks borne by others (such as governments and financial institutions).

Some people find his writing style difficult to read, but I like it, the books are extensions of one another, like an extended thesis on a moral way to live your life. He publicly calls out people he hates like Bernanke and Greenspan, and his biases are there for all to see. There's not many non-fiction books I'll read over and over, but with Taleb I personally find his writing style so entertaining, that reading a chapter from 'Antifragile' or 'Skin in the Game' cleanses your mind - it washes all the bullshit of the modern world away for a few days.

 

[Gordie Lastchance]

I made my second purchase of silver pieces on Coininvest on Friday. I'm no high-roller, especially when I read of the sums people on here talk about investing. But I see it as me making a start on buying them for me and my future, especially considering the thoughts of posters here. I actually bought some silver coins in December and gave them as Christmas presents - they were so popular, because they were so novel. And the recipients thought I'd handed them something priceless (they were in plastic capsules to add to the effect). Their reactions were heartwarming, but the significance of their reactions only struck me now after reading through the last two or three pages of this thread. They had no idea you could buy such coins, had no idea where to get them, had no idea of their value and had no idea of their potential future value (or, dare I say it, utility) - basically summing up what has been mentioned on this forum, that ordinary folk are sleepwalking into oblivion, if not oblivion, something really nasty that's going to hurt.

Until I started reading this thread on ToS and following it here (the thread's importance to me made this is the only internet forum I've ever joined), I was the same. I trundled along in life, yes, wary of how things were going with the world, but never really stopping to think how bad things might get. I'm so glad that I've never dined on a mind-numbing diet of crap TV or Crapbook or Twitcrap - those unreal worlds the masses slavishly worship for the highs they get from clicks and likes - but which give no sense of reality; worlds the powers-that-be want people to inhabit blindly, in order to keep them deaf and dumb and quiet and pliable.

I only knew about buying physical silver (VAT free) from ToS. As many from ToS have migrated here, can I say thank you. It's been so simple and I'm amazed how quickly an order is dealt with and dispatched.    

[Lavalas]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Amazing isnt it,we told them 18 months ago that they would be printing £500 billion and the Fed around $10 trillion.The liquidity profile at this stage of the cycle made that very likely.What will happen though is commercial banks wont be doing the lending as everyone thinks looking at the structure,there will be little demand,it will be government.Gilts will likely do ok,but it depends where the shocks hit.

On another note im buying New Gold Inc on monday to add to my PM miner holdings.

On topic, interesting info on New Gold Inc. I’ll take a look.

I’m at a crossroads in my thinking with current investments in miners. I’m a novice starting from a low base. I originally thought I’d try to ride a wave of the possible rise in gold/silver then try to get out before a deflation and in when cheap. Clearly a risky approach in a risky sector. Gone well so far, up in everything, which I realise is as much luck as design... and we haven’t even had the ride yet. First Majestic up 38%, Wesdome up 25% (in three weeks), for example. Not large enough amounts to top slice though. Thinking I should just resign myself to holding these now and save more for investing in the bust (which I’m doing anyway).

I dunno - basically I think I’ve picked well but I’ve no experience in when to get out, which by all accounts is something you should already know when investing. I also need to not be blinded by early success and pile more into miners, as tempting as that is... but I will take a look at New Gold Inc 

[Lavalas]

^^^ Not really expecting trading advice, by the way. Just musing...

[Mr Fabulous]

Can you guys recommend the best platform to get started with regarding shares etc? I'm torn between H&L, AJ Bell, Interactive investor & IG Group.

I like the information & platform layouts that H&L & AJ Bell provide although costs seem to be a bit more with these two. 

Any feedback would be most welcome.

Great thread by the way. 

[A_P]

12 minutes ago, Mr Fabulous said:

Can you guys recommend the best platform to get started with regarding shares etc? I'm torn between H&L, AJ Bell, Interactive investor & IG Group.

I like the information & platform layouts that H&L & AJ Bell provide although costs seem to be a bit more with these two. 

Any feedback would be most welcome.

Great thread by the way. 

From what I gather the brokers are very much the same. Really where they differ is the pricing structure, depending on how much you have and what you're going to buy can have a big impact. Best to do the calculations yourself, however, monevator do have a broker comparsion http://monevator.com/compare-the-brokers/

I'm with II and can't fault the interface, pension transfers went great and the flat fee structure works for me. Something I have been caught out on now is their FX rate.

[Solzhenitsyn]

On 14/06/2018 at 22:42, sancho panza said:

I'm very interested in the soft commodities longer term.Besides the ETF which I presume rolls the futures,are there any companies in the world that could provide exposure to them?

It is a difficult one Sancho and something I’m looking into - similar to you I have an investment in Nutrien and also Intrepid Potash (IPI) as a way of gaining indirect exposure to soft commodities.

I’m looking at COFF at the moment as way of gaining exposure to Coffee. Currently priced at $1 but was up at $5.3 in 2011 - it’s had a hell of a bear market but I’m trying to figure out why, and might it be expected to rise in a reflation. But similar to WEAT the ETC works by replicating a futures index. 

Im still looking at a way of getting into an ETF that provides access to equities in companies farming soft commodities - no luck yet but I’ll let you know as and when I find stuff. 

If you’re into uranium then I heard there is a new physical uranium fund “yellow cake” being setup in London soon which should have great potential.

[Lavalas]

I invested in a Sugar ETF (SUGA) a month ago as I thought that had hit a bottom but then I got scared and realised I know f-all about the Sugar market so I cashed out at break even (since gone down). Was good learning for me as the investment was making me anxious. Hammered home how serious this is and how better informed I need to be.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Mr Fabulous said:

Can you guys recommend the best platform to get started with regarding shares etc? I'm torn between H&L, AJ Bell, Interactive investor & IG Group.

I like the information & platform layouts that H&L & AJ Bell provide although costs seem to be a bit more with these two. 

Any feedback would be most welcome.

Great thread by the way. 

They are all decent,but i prefer HL myself.Iv always used them since i started investing and the service they gave my dad when my mum died was outstanding.You can get slightly cheaper etc,but i prefer the fact their customer service people actually know what they are talking about.Experts,not just call centre staff.

 

2 hours ago, Lavalas said:

On topic, interesting info on New Gold Inc. I’ll take a look.

I’m at a crossroads in my thinking with current investments in miners. I’m a novice starting from a low base. I originally thought I’d try to ride a wave of the possible rise in gold/silver then try to get out before a deflation and in when cheap. Clearly a risky approach in a risky sector. Gone well so far, up in everything, which I realise is as much luck as design... and we haven’t even had the ride yet. First Majestic up 38%, Wesdome up 25% (in three weeks), for example. Not large enough amounts to top slice though. Thinking I should just resign myself to holding these now and save more for investing in the bust (which I’m doing anyway).

I dunno - basically I think I’ve picked well but I’ve no experience in when to get out, which by all accounts is something you should already know when investing. I also need to not be blinded by early success and pile more into miners, as tempting as that is... but I will take a look at New Gold Inc 

Iv been buying Yamana Gold,Sibanye,Harmony Gold Mining,Eldorado Gold and im buying New Gold Inc monday.

 

Nice to see this on the housebuilders.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-5877685/Down-3-6bn-TWO-WEEKS-roof-falls-housebuilders.html

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

It is a difficult one Sancho and something I’m looking into - similar to you I have an investment in Nutrien and also Intrepid Potash (IPI) as a way of gaining indirect exposure to soft commodities.

I’m looking at COFF at the moment as way of gaining exposure to Coffee. Currently priced at $1 but was up at $5.3 in 2011 - it’s had a hell of a bear market but I’m trying to figure out why, and might it be expected to rise in a reflation. But similar to WEAT the ETC works by replicating a futures index. 

Im still looking at a way of getting into an ETF that provides access to equities in companies farming soft commodities - no luck yet but I’ll let you know as and when I find stuff. 

If you’re into uranium then I heard there is a new physical uranium fund “yellow cake” being setup in London soon which should have great potential.

Same here,im very interested in soft commods,but havent put much work in as hard to know how to play them.Iv made good money over the years with the fund URA,but cant access it now.Some of the SA gold miners produce a lot of Uranium,a lot of people forget/dont know that.Sibanye has millions of pounds of the stuff on its tailings and Harmony mines loads of it at Moab Khotsong and own the only Uranium plant in SA.Probably breaking even at the present price.

[Castlevania]

There’s an Argentine farmer on the Nasdaq. Cresud. 

http://www.cresud.com.ar/index.php?language=en

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I made my second purchase of silver pieces on Coininvest on Friday. I'm no high-roller, especially when I read of the sums people on here talk about investing. But I see it as me making a start on buying them for me and my future, especially considering the thoughts of posters here. I actually bought some silver coins in December and gave them as Christmas presents - they were so popular, because they were so novel. And the recipients thought I'd handed them something priceless (they were in plastic capsules to add to the effect). Their reactions were heartwarming, but the significance of their reactions only struck me now after reading through the last two or three pages of this thread. They had no idea you could buy such coins, had no idea where to get them, had no idea of their value and had no idea of their potential future value (or, dare I say it, utility) - basically summing up what has been mentioned on this forum, that ordinary folk are sleepwalking into oblivion, if not oblivion, something really nasty that's going to hurt.

Until I started reading this thread on ToS and following it here (the thread's importance to me made this is the only internet forum I've ever joined), I was the same. I trundled along in life, yes, wary of how things were going with the world, but never really stopping to think how bad things might get. I'm so glad that I've never dined on a mind-numbing diet of crap TV or Crapbook or Twitcrap - those unreal worlds the masses slavishly worship for the highs they get from clicks and likes - but which give no sense of reality; worlds the powers-that-be want people to inhabit blindly, in order to keep them deaf and dumb and quiet and pliable.

I only knew about buying physical silver (VAT free) from ToS. As many from ToS have migrated here, can I say thank you. It's been so simple and I'm amazed how quickly an order is dealt with and dispatched.    

It really is quite amazing when you get your first silver Britannia and hold it and think this was £13 quid or whatever.I think what you say about peoples reaction is very telling.That silver was created in a supernova,the death of a huge star,and only the biggest stars have the gravity in their death to create it.You just know it has value when you hold it.You just feel it has wprth and can be swapped for other things.No counter party risk,no CBs printing to oblivion.Its beautiful the way it catches the sun and almost blinds you.

The PMs time is coming again.Its very possible that people might see holding some as protection against financial pain and asset loss.

Vat free physical coins capital gains tax free,at $17 an ounce.It would be rude not to wouldnt it.

[No Duff (troll)]

Could someone please confirm Coininvest will send silver Britannias to the UK free of UK VAT (but not German VAT).  I was looking this morning and several sites talk about VAT free if held outside the UK and the Coininvest FAQ only talks about gold.

[afly]

It's a bit confusing. "vat benefitted" coins here

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-margin-scheme-products/

Cheapest vat free britannias here

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/britannia/1-oz-britannia-silver-2018/

Ordered in march no problem. They have UK bank account that you can send a bank transfer to

To expand. It seems that in germany you pay vat on the profit made not the order value. So it's peanuts in comparison

[No Duff (troll)]

2 hours ago, Mr Fabulous said:

Can you guys recommend the best platform to get started with regarding shares etc? I'm torn between H&L, AJ Bell, Interactive investor & IG Group.

I like the information & platform layouts that H&L & AJ Bell provide although costs seem to be a bit more with these two. 

Any feedback would be most welcome.

Great thread by the way. 

Is IG now a broker or still just a spread better?

The USP for II is they let you hold foreign currency balances.  Saves on transaction costs and easy to trade currencies.  Quite a good platform.

The USP for HL is excellent customer service.  And good info on things like retirement and funds.  A good platform.

The USP fof AJs is/was cost.  They used to manage SiPPs for II when it was TD Waterhouse.  Do some good videos.  Platform could be better.

[Lavalas]

Might be worth finding out (from people in this thread or trawling the other thread) which platforms are allowing you to buy the ETFs that require a KID (SIL, GDXJ etc). Don’t think anyone is having any luck with HL now but perhaps some are with others. Depends what you want to invest in I suppose. 

[Dogtania]

@azzuri82 that's exactly how I feel about reading Taleb, he's very opinionated and whilst his writing is quite long winded reading it is quite entertaining/ refreshing.  That's just from reading anti fragile I think although will happily work through others in time.

[Dogtania]

2 hours ago, No Duff said:

Could someone please confirm Coininvest will send silver Britannias to the UK free of UK VAT (but not German VAT).  I was looking this morning and several sites talk about VAT free if held outside the UK and the Coininvest FAQ only talks about gold.

Googling coin invest and vat free lands on pages that say it is.  I used silver to go in the past that was vat free so don't see why coin invest would be different.

[Band]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying Yamana Gold,Sibanye,Harmony Gold Mining,Eldorado Gold and im buying New Gold Inc monday.

 

So is your plan to time it right and sell before the deflation event or are these for keeping just in case it doesnt pan out as you expect?

[kibuc]

The likes of Sibanye, New Gold or Tahoe are so criminally low that it might be perfectly ok to hold them through the storm. Wesdome, which I'm all-in at the moment, is being repriced after great drillings in their Kiena mine but personally I'll be trying to sell most of it before SHTF.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

3 hours ago, No Duff said:

Can't delete on mobile...

 

1 hour ago, Dogtania said:

Googling coin invest and vat free lands on pages that say it is.  I used silver to go in the past that was vat free so don't see why coin invest would be different.

Same company. Not VAT-free, just charged differently in Germany. Resulting price is much cheaper.

[No Duff (troll)]

12 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

 

Same company. Not VAT-free, just charged differently in Germany. Resulting price is much cheaper.

Thanks.  Any idea why silver coins (any) are VAT freeish (margin method) but bars are not (plus 20%)?

It was Bullion By Post that offers silver VAT free if stored offshore. 

[Cosmic]

22 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Thanks.  Any idea why silver coins (any) are VAT freeish (margin method) but bars are not (plus 20%)?

It was Bullion By Post that offers silver VAT free if stored offshore. 

Because the coins are technically legal tender - I believe you can go to a bank and they are worth £2, in the case of a £2 Britannia.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

44 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Thanks.  Any idea why silver coins (any) are VAT freeish (margin method) but bars are not (plus 20%)?

It was Bullion By Post that offers silver VAT free if stored offshore. 

Just different rates on different products. See the whole Jaffa Cake cake/biscuit saga for an analogy.

If you're not actually taking delivery then I guess technically you're being sold a derivative; similar to Bullionvault. I'm sure purists might disagree.