Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, No Duff said:

Thanks.  Any idea why silver coins (any) are VAT freeish (margin method) but bars are not (plus 20%)?

It was Bullion By Post that offers silver VAT free if stored offshore. 

You don’t have to pay VAT if you buy silver bars in a bonded, allocated warehouse outside the EU. If you took delivery to the UK then you would.

[BearyBear]

What is the round trip cost for buying/selling physical silver?

[Solzhenitsyn]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Same here,im very interested in soft commods,but havent put much work in as hard to know how to play them.Iv made good money over the years with the fund URA,but cant access it now.Some of the SA gold miners produce a lot of Uranium,a lot of people forget/dont know that.Sibanye has millions of pounds of the stuff on its tailings and Harmony mines loads of it at Moab Khotsong and own the only Uranium plant in SA.Probably breaking even at the present price.

Hi DB,

A good alternative to URA is Geiger Counter Ltd (GCL) trades on LSE so no issues buying 

I now use GCL plus I buy equity in a select few of the miners such as Fission Uranium Corp.

[SpectrumFX]

21 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

What is the round trip cost for buying/selling physical silver?

That depends what happens to the spot price between you buying and selling.

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, No Duff said:

But raising V from its sleep will have massive inflationary effects.  Absolutely massive.  Price and even exchange controls massive.  V is sentiment so hard to control other than brute force.  

You're right though.  Even back in 80's we ignored V by assuming it away into insignificance.  I grinned then as I do now.  It is why economics is essentially an art not a science, unless you assume the art part away!

Maybe we'll see the rebirth of economics from it's current sorry state but in an even more behavioural form.

Are you..

If so,I claim my fiver.

13 hours ago, stokiescum said:

hs2 is all about axcessing cheaper houseing stock in the north,if you can get the rats into there cage (londinistan) in under 90 minnutes .

Is your name Dan? Like in the real world.I only ask as you talk like a mate of mine from..well..Stoke..

12 hours ago, Dim Ray said:

Lack of imagination is exactly it. I don't understand why people vote for politicians with no ideas and no imagination - if you're a politician without ideas, the only reason you could possibly be in it is for the power and for yourself. Like we saw with David Cameron, and we're seeing with Treason May, without imagination a politician is worse than useless.

Nicely put.We  are led by the clueless and gutless at the minute.

11 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Depends. I think the guy is a genius. He's arrogant as hell but I like people who are balls out with their opinions and have nowhere to hide. His entire world view is centred around the fact that people should only profess opinions if they have 'skin in the game', otherwise keep your mouth shut. i.e. watch what people do, not what they say. His hatred of IYI's (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) is heartening, he sees the modern professional politicians and economists for what they are, a bunch of shysters that don't live in the real world, take few risks but yet gain great rewards from risks borne by others (such as governments and financial institutions).

Some people find his writing style difficult to read, but I like it, the books are extensions of one another, like an extended thesis on a moral way to live your life. He publicly calls out people he hates like Bernanke and Greenspan, and his biases are there for all to see. There's not many non-fiction books I'll read over and over, but with Taleb I personally find his writing style so entertaining, that reading a chapter from 'Antifragile' or 'Skin in the Game' cleanses your mind - it washes all the bullshit of the modern world away for a few days.

 

Sounds like an intersting read.

10 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I made my second purchase of silver pieces on Coininvest on Friday. I'm no high-roller, especially when I read of the sums people on here talk about investing. But I see it as me making a start on buying them for me and my future, especially considering the thoughts of posters here. I actually bought some silver coins in December and gave them as Christmas presents - they were so popular, because they were so novel. And the recipients thought I'd handed them something priceless (they were in plastic capsules to add to the effect). Their reactions were heartwarming, but the significance of their reactions only struck me now after reading through the last two or three pages of this thread. They had no idea you could buy such coins, had no idea where to get them, had no idea of their value and had no idea of their potential future value (or, dare I say it, utility) - basically summing up what has been mentioned on this forum, that ordinary folk are sleepwalking into oblivion, if not oblivion, something really nasty that's going to hurt.

Until I started reading this thread on ToS and following it here (the thread's importance to me made this is the only internet forum I've ever joined), I was the same. I trundled along in life, yes, wary of how things were going with the world, but never really stopping to think how bad things might get. I'm so glad that I've never dined on a mind-numbing diet of crap TV or Crapbook or Twitcrap - those unreal worlds the masses slavishly worship for the highs they get from clicks and likes - but which give no sense of reality; worlds the powers-that-be want people to inhabit blindly, in order to keep them deaf and dumb and quiet and pliable.

I only knew about buying physical silver (VAT free) from ToS. As many from ToS have migrated here, can I say thank you. It's been so simple and I'm amazed how quickly an order is dealt with and dispatched.    

I'm not bothered by people talking volume unless it's specific to a line of dsicussion eg tax allowances,VAT etc.

7 hours ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

It is a difficult one Sancho and something I’m looking into - similar to you I have an investment in Nutrien and also Intrepid Potash (IPI) as a way of gaining indirect exposure to soft commodities.

I’m looking at COFF at the moment as way of gaining exposure to Coffee. Currently priced at $1 but was up at $5.3 in 2011 - it’s had a hell of a bear market but I’m trying to figure out why, and might it be expected to rise in a reflation. But similar to WEAT the ETC works by replicating a futures index. 

Im still looking at a way of getting into an ETF that provides access to equities in companies farming soft commodities - no luck yet but I’ll let you know as and when I find stuff. 

If you’re into uranium then I heard there is a new physical uranium fund “yellow cake” being setup in London soon which should have great potential.

We've held some Cameco for a while.Decent yield which should bump up when the tax issues with the Canadian authorieis are resolved.

7 hours ago, Castlevania said:

There’s an Argentine farmer on the Nasdaq. Cresud. 

http://www.cresud.com.ar/index.php?language=en

Very intersing idea CV.Feel free to post any more you have.

5 hours ago, No Duff said:

Is IG now a broker or still just a spread better?

The USP for II is they let you hold foreign currency balances.  Saves on transaction costs and easy to trade currencies.  Quite a good platform.

The USP for HL is excellent customer service.  And good info on things like retirement and funds.  A good platform.

The USP fof AJs is/was cost.  They used to manage SiPPs for II when it was TD Waterhouse.  Do some good videos.  Platform could be better.

It does investing too.

 

[No Duff (troll)]

45 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

What is the round trip cost for buying/selling physical silver?

Coininvest or silver to go has the buy back (looks like spot) price on each product screen so you can compare that to a particular product's sales price on the screen to see the mark up.  Silver mark ups for coins are high, gold a little less.  Margins go down the more you buy.  I was always told to buy the cheapest metals as the coins were more for collectors.  Looks like that's certain Britannias (no CGT) or small bars.  I must say though, all the coins look lovely!

[No Duff (troll)]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Are you..

 

If so,I claim my fiver.

Last I heard, Fence had fallen in love with a 25 year old and found a better use for his money!  No Duff!

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Are you..

If so,I claim my fiver.

Is your name Dan? Like in the real world.I only ask as you talk like a mate of mine from..well..Stoke..

Nicely put.We  are led by the clueless and gutless at the minute.

Sounds like an intersting read.

I'm not bothered by people talking volume unless it's specific to a line of dsicussion eg tax allowances,VAT etc.

We've held some Cameco for a while.Decent yield which should bump up when the tax issues with the Canadian authorieis are resolved.

Very intersing idea CV.Feel free to post any more you have.

It does investing too.

 

looks like a venger run to me.

[Green Devil]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Same here,im very interested in soft commods,but havent put much work in as hard to know how to play them.Iv made good money over the years with the fund URA,but cant access it now.Some of the SA gold miners produce a lot of Uranium,a lot of people forget/dont know that.Sibanye has millions of pounds of the stuff on its tailings and Harmony mines loads of it at Moab Khotsong and own the only Uranium plant in SA.Probably breaking even at the present price.

 

54 minutes ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Hi DB,

A good alternative to URA is Geiger Counter Ltd (GCL) trades on LSE so no issues buying 

I now use GCL plus I buy equity in a select few of the miners such as Fission Uranium Corp.

Ive been trading in and out of URA for a while now on Interactive Brokers, however i tried to buy it last friday and it said 'Sorry this is only available to instutional investors'

Clearly they know something..

I got a notification that they were changing the constituent parts of the fund. So a reallocation, but nothing that told me you couldnt buy it.

So currently all i have is Cameco (CCJ), would be nice to be able to find another 'Uranium index tracker' on NYSE or NASDAQ

 

[MvR]

I've been chatting to a friend who's very much into silver, gold and uranium. Quite a serious investor who travels to meet the CEOs when he can. He likes companies with large resources in the ground, and large owner shareholdings. His tips for uranium, roughly in order of preference, are :-

1. Uranium Energy Corp (US) http://www.uraniumenergy.com  

2. Fission ( Canada) https://www.fissionuranium.com - Possible takeover target, Chinese have bought a 20% stake.

3. Denison Mines (US) http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Home.asp - Father / Son outfit where the family are still the major shareholders.

4. Cameco(US) https://www.cameco.com  The BP of uranium mining.

5. Sky Harbour Resources( Canada ) http://skyharbourltd.com 

6. Goviex Uranium ( Canada ) http://www.goviex.com - Mining in Africa.. higher risk play due to political risk, but worth a punt apparently. 

DYOR obviously, but I thought I'd throw these names out there for those who are interested. The Canadian stocks might be unavailable depending on your brokerage, which is a shame.

[Thorn]

Sirius minerals seem to be going from strength to strength... still early days but seem to be well run and setting up deals for export once production gets going.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Are you..

If so,I claim my fiver.

Is your name Dan? Like in the real world.I only ask as you talk like a mate of mine from..well..Stoke..

 

 

no my names mark

[King Penda]

24 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Sirius minerals seem to be going from strength to strength... still early days but seem to be well run and setting up deals for export once production gets going.

one of the problems they have is nimbeys,i thought about buying a few years ago.fertiliser will be in huge demand has the population rises.however whilst i still have a morgage i think my days of fking about with chump change compared to what you guys have is over.

 

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

11 hours ago, Banned by HPC said:

So is your plan to time it right and sell before the deflation event or are these for keeping just in case it doesnt pan out as you expect?

Im not sure to be honest,it depends on if/how hard they run.If they dont il be holding them and id average some more later if needed.I could increase the holdings 30% without them being too large a part of my portfolio.It would be nice to have to decide if the GDX runs to the $36+ area later in the year.Some of these miners are very very cheap though.If PMs do run there will be some big gains.

[TheNannyRose]

Hey DB

Firstly, thanks to you, and SP et al, for or an amazing thread. After years of lurking at TOS it made me finally sign up.

I'm very interested in strategy for a deflationary event and if it will significantly take down PM's, PM miners/utilities etc, before inflation kicks in.

I'm currently mid 6 figures all cash (renting of course!), but about to sell my shares in my company which hopefully should go through in 10-12 weeks. That will be a significant sum (mid 7 figures after tax). This leaves me in of course an amazing position, however, averaging into a position over a period of time is not going to happen. I'm going to need/want to time the market as best as I can - an impossible task no doubt. Obviously I don't want to get whacked 30-50% in a sell-off, but of course, the sell off might not happen if we go straight to inflation.

How would you approach my "problem" DB?

[leonardratso]

7 hours ago, stokiescum said:

one of the problems they have is nimbeys,i thought about buying a few years ago.fertiliser will be in huge demand has the population rises.however whilst i still have a morgage i think my days of fking about with chump change compared to what you guys have is over.

 

 

 

 

wow, havent looked at SRS since it was 24pence, 31 now, coulda shoulda woulda eh, no worries, could probably just as easily have been 12pence now, so comme ci comme ça

[Lavalas]

12 hours ago, kibuc said:

The likes of Sibanye, New Gold or Tahoe are so criminally low that it might be perfectly ok to hold them through the storm. Wesdome, which I'm all-in at the moment, is being repriced after great drillings in their Kiena mine but personally I'll be trying to sell most of it before SHTF.

Same for me on Wesdome. Read about Kiena plus all the directors getting in and looks like I managed to buy at a good point. Think I’ve made up my mind to try and sell if (during/after) we have a good run up. So the worst happens and don’t sell in time, like you say they’re all so cheap that holding wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen. Cheers.

[Gordie Lastchance]

15 hours ago, afly said:

It's a bit confusing. "vat benefitted" coins here

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-margin-scheme-products/

Cheapest vat free britannias here

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/britannia/1-oz-britannia-silver-2018/

Ordered in march no problem. They have UK bank account that you can send a bank transfer to

To expand. It seems that in germany you pay vat on the profit made not the order value. So it's peanuts in comparison

Right, heads up, time for a 'fession.

When I first ordered silver coins from coininvest, I merrily clicked on pretty ones, ones that I thought might stand me in good stead re bribery at a border in the event of a major catastrophe (American Eagle) Chinese Lunar calendar ones (reflecting the recipient's year of birth, as these were Christmas presents) and I also clicked on some that had limited mintages. There was a bit of trepidation (I'm nervy anyway), because I was dealing with a coin dealer in Germany, I was giving out credit card details and you are warned there are certain procedures you MUST follow to avoid taking delivery of a box full of stones and not coins. So, I concentrated too much on this and took my eye off the ball - I hadn't noticed until I was reading through the invoice that some (not all) of the coins had VAT levied at 20%. That bit had come after I had "added to cart" or possibly even at paying time. I had made the mistake, if you can call it that, of Giggling coininvest. Doing that (certainly the way I did it), opens up SEVEN pages of silver coins. However, on ToS, after this same issue re VAT was discussed, I saved a link put up by someone there to the VAT-free coins which gives you FOUR pages of silver coins. When I made my most recent purchase last week, I used the same link and all have come through VAT free. That link is the same one put up by afly, but here it is again:   https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-margin-scheme-products/

I couldn't agree more with DB about the certain feeling it gives you when you touch these coins. They are something to be admired, you know you've something special in your hands. If you look closely on coininvest, you can find coins that have some low mintages. The 20th anniversary 1oz silver Britannia 2017, for example, has a limited mintage of 120,000. I don't know how exclusive that is, but I know, according to the newspapers, folk are going daft to find the various limited mintage 50 pence sterling coins in general circulation and are trying to flog them for big money on fleabay.

As to why the coins are cheap at coininvest, the blurb on their website says it's because "Germany has a taxation scheme that differs to other European countries. Thanks to this unique tax system, CoinInvest can send silver coins VAT-free to addresses within the European Union." Maybe that's a warning to stock up now!

I've not hidden the fact I am a novice to investing - and it's plain here with the botch I made of my first purchase on coininvest. And I've gone with getting the coins in my hand rather than stored somewhere as I'm just too frightened that if I came to asking the vault to give me what I'm due during a global crisis that they might be slow to do so or not do so at all. Granted, taking possession of them creates the issue of where to keep/hide them safely.  

[DurhamBorn]

20 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

Right, heads up, time for a 'fession.

When I first ordered silver coins from coininvest, I merrily clicked on pretty ones, ones that I thought might stand me in good stead re bribery at a border in the event of a major catastrophe (American Eagle) Chinese Lunar calendar ones (reflecting the recipient's year of birth, as these were Christmas presents) and I also clicked on some that had limited mintages. There was a bit of trepidation (I'm nervy anyway), because I was dealing with a coin dealer in Germany, I was giving out credit card details and you are warned there are certain procedures you MUST follow to avoid taking delivery of a box full of stones and not coins. So, I concentrated too much on this and took my eye off the ball - I hadn't noticed until I was reading through the invoice that some (not all) of the coins had VAT levied at 20%. That bit had come after I had "added to cart" or possibly even at paying time. I had made the mistake, if you can call it that, of Giggling coininvest. Doing that (certainly the way I did it), opens up SEVEN pages of silver coins. However, on ToS, after this same issue re VAT was discussed, I saved a link put up by someone there to the VAT-free coins which gives you FOUR pages of silver coins. When I made my most recent purchase last week, I used the same link and all have come through VAT free. That link is the same one put up by afly, but here it is again:   https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-margin-scheme-products/

I couldn't agree more with DB about the certain feeling it gives you when you touch these coins. They are something to be admired, you know you've something special in your hands. If you look closely on coininvest, you can find coins that have some low mintages. The 20th anniversary 1oz silver Britannia 2017, for example, has a limited mintage of 120,000. I don't know how exclusive that is, but I know, according to the newspapers, folk are going daft to find the various limited mintage 50 pence sterling coins in general circulation and are trying to flog them for big money on fleabay.

As to why the coins are cheap at coininvest, the blurb on their website says it's because "Germany has a taxation scheme that differs to other European countries. Thanks to this unique tax system, CoinInvest can send silver coins VAT-free to addresses within the European Union." Maybe that's a warning to stock up now!

I've not hidden the fact I am a novice to investing - and it's plain here with the botch I made of my first purchase on coininvest. And I've gone with getting the coins in my hand rather than stored somewhere as I'm just too frightened that if I came to asking the vault to give me what I'm due during a global crisis that they might be slow to do so or not do so at all. Granted, taking possession of them creates the issue of where to keep/hide them safely.  

Thanks for adding that for people,i think thats what this thread is about,people sharing their knowledge and experience.Like you say the EU thing needs thinking about,we might not get them VAT free much longer.

[Gordie Lastchance]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thanks for adding that for people,i think thats what this thread is about,people sharing their knowledge and experience.Like you say the EU thing needs thinking about,we might not get them VAT free much longer.

Two of the coins that I'd bought on my first mission in December were Chinese Lunar calendar ones. £15.80 each at the time and with VAT at 20% added £6.32, according to the invoice I've just fished out. So it's a fair whack if you're not careful (like me). You're right, I think the EU breakaway by the UK might be something to really bear in mind for the future. Do you think the powers-that-be will spend a lot of time arranging the continuation of VAT-free silver to Blighty when so many other issues are at the fore? I think I might buy a few more sooner, rather than later - and hope that silver prices don't go airborne while we can still take advantage of the VAT situation. A stratospheric rise after, now that'd suit us.

[Cosmic]

29 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

Do you think the powers-that-be will spend a lot of time arranging the continuation of VAT-free silver to Blighty when so many other issues are at the fore? 

No, several reasons: The EU/Germans want to punish us. The PTB care nowt for the retail investors purchasing these things. They'd love the extra tax take.

I'll personally be topping up my (small) physical collection soon, before April 2019 unless something drastic occurs to the price in the mean time. The last batch* cost me £15 dead a coin delivered, I'd like to be under £16 next round. They will be a long term hold for me, so losing on the spread isn't too much of a concern.

 

* I bought the used/'mixed' Britannia as they were cheaper... was given tubes of shiny 2017 coins

[Gordie Lastchance]

40 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

No, several reasons: The EU/Germans want to punish us. The PTB care nowt for the retail investors purchasing these things. They'd love the extra tax take.

I'll personally be topping up my (small) physical collection soon, before April 2019 unless something drastic occurs to the price in the mean time. The last batch* cost me £15 dead a coin delivered, I'd like to be under £16 next round. They will be a long term hold for me, so losing on the spread isn't too much of a concern.

 

* I bought the used/'mixed' Britannia as they were cheaper... was given tubes of shiny 2017 coins

The silver price chart has become a bit like share price charts for companies I follow - me checking far too often to see if I can get my timing right for buying! To think, back in October '08 - £5.85 for an ounce of silver. April '11 - pennies away from reaching £28 an ounce. Years and years and years before I was even aware of the ease of buying silver coins. I don't know of anyone in my circle who has bought silver coins, if they have, they've never mentioned it. I saw the adverts for buying gold on TV, but immediately discounted them because of the cost of gold - maybe other folk are the same, I don't know. To me, silver seems to fly under the radar.

Following the tips from folk on here - when I've asked about shares-type investing - I've learned I can't time markets and I've just got to get some skin in the game. Also, it was said to me on here about the emotion of share investing. I feel, from my perspective, there's so much more emotion in coins. I've bought to hold, but I've no idea how I'll be/cope when/if I decide to sell. There's just something about them. But, if the gloomiest of predictions comes true about the coming crashmageddon, I think I'll have to let go of emotion because it'll be all about survival.

 

[kibuc]

Folks, any suggestions for buying gold/silver coins for cash in London? I've got some spare notes with the Queen on them in my jar, and I need that jar for pickles.

I understand there are some legal restrictions on the amounts - single ID required under £5k, two IDs between £5k-£10k, £10k being the yearly limit - is that correct? And which seller would you suggest so it won't be a problem to sell it back later?

[BearingUp]

Phenomenally longtime lurker here from ToS.  I think it was about 2003/04 I started in preparation for STR in 2004 (who remembers "Minted BTL"?).  Not the best decision in hindsight but it's been great living mortgage and maintenance free for the past 14 years and having the freedom to invest where I want to.  We're fortunate as my wife gets a house with her job so I haven't had the pressure of feeling that I'm paying off someone else's mortgage.

Anyway, like the rest of you I'm loving this thread and I'm about to take the plunge and buy some silver coins.

My question:  When I look at the prices of say Silver Britannias on Coin Invest there is a big discrepancy in price between the different types, e.g a 1oz Privy Mark Horse is £18.49 and a 1oz 'Normal' Britannia is just £15.58.  Is the difference just a collectors' premium according to perceived rarity?  For investing I presume it makes sense to just go for the cheapest one.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Went to see a friend of mine at the weekend who works for a large american bank ( in London ).

Word on the street is that everyone thinks it's the end of the world but they themselves think it's a storm in a tea cup.

No sign of any bank's in trouble ( they called the big french bank problems months before it went mainstream ).

However, there aint no jobs so everyone is trying to weather the storm !!!

One of the BBQ goers said her husband had been out of work 2 years with no sign of a job.  He's an "executive" and doesnt want to work in MacDonalds.

The words, divorce and throw the lazy c**t out, were used.  They will have to sell their property portfolio if the get divorced though ( a factor plenty of us would't have considered, as the 30 somethings in London who've piled into BTL/Debt hit that 10 years of unhappiness mark and decided enough is enough, plenty distress sales will appear, what's the divorce rate, 50% ? )

One person said, I kid you not, what's more important, you'r happiness or the shity flats you're losing money on.

My host, seems quite relaxed but the comment, "no point worrying when your up to your neck in debt" was quite revealing.  They were very happy that a house near them had gone under offer for 50% more than they paid last year though, last year they were telling me prices were down in that part of London, maybe they bought "the dip".  They were talking about getting a cheap kitchen into their £1.2M house, as they were skint 

Purely anecdotal and a small sample size but these are up beat city high flyer types who I've never heard a negative word from.

My friend looked old and tired suddenly.