Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Alifelessbinary]

5 hours ago, kibuc said:

Folks, any suggestions for buying gold/silver coins for cash in London? I've got some spare notes with the Queen on them in my jar, and I need that jar for pickles.

I understand there are some legal restrictions on the amounts - single ID required under £5k, two IDs between £5k-£10k, £10k being the yearly limit - is that correct? And which seller would you suggest so it won't be a problem to sell it back later?

I've always found http://www.hattongardenmetals.com/ to be pretty good.

If you purchase their best value gold sovereigns they are about 3.5% above spot. I've also bagged a few slightly rare sovereigns this way, although only real from a collecting point of view. I like the fact you can either have them posted or collect them from their shop.

[Gordie Lastchance]

5 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

I've always found http://www.hattongardenmetals.com/ to be pretty good.

If you purchase their best value gold sovereigns they are about 3.5% above spot. I've also bagged a few slightly rare sovereigns this way, although only real from a collecting point of view. I like the fact you can either have them posted or collect them from their shop.

Do you have to use the front door, or is the tunnel still available?

[Alifelessbinary]

8 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

Do you have to use the front door, or is the tunnel still available?

If I thought I could get away with a 100% discount I'd use the tunnel! Sadly to date I've used the boring full cost front door.

[Talking Monkey]

4 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 They are a long way from thick.

They just dont see the day when they wont be working.  In this case I'd probably tend to agree, but they will be working a long time to pay off their debts when the London bubble goes

 

Did a few viewings in the west mids a few years back, prosperous areas, very nice houses....till you went through the front door.

 

 

Working in an investment bank is not a secure job, I reckon it will be brutal in a downturn, look at what is happening at Deutsche

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I've known a saying for years that has, thanks to the time I've spent on this planet, really been proven to be true on so many occasions.

It's this: "He/she's all brains and no common sense." Seems like it's ringing true with other posters on here.

But these people with all the brains and no common sense appear to be in all/most/many of the top positions in business/industry/politics. Where power lies.

It's frightening.

Worked with several PhD Drs.

I'd rather work with an HND graduate, more practical, more interest in working.

 

 

[Castlevania]

27 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Working in an investment bank is not a secure job, I reckon it will be brutal in a downturn, look at what is happening at Deutsche

According to a friend of mine who works in a middle office role for an investment bank (and he’s been made redundant twice in his career) is that the really big earners (traders and the like) generally don’t do buy to let. He’s never met a trader with one. They might own a holiday home, in some cases more than one but that’s it. Go to the support functions (trade support, the accountants, lawyers etc) and you’ll find a pile of people balls deep in buy to let. It’s the professional classes dirty little secret.

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

@Castlevania, I'm not surprised by that. BTL seems a mental idea to me; getting someone you don't know to pay your mortgage, when they've not been allowed one. Oh, and you've got to be at their beck and call to fix stuff they've probably broken, which they are less likely to care about as it's not theirs in the first place.

Generalisations I know (no offence to those of you who rent), but as an investment class it seems far too much like hard work to me.

[Option5]

41 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Worked with several PhD Drs.

I'd rather work with an HND graduate, more practical, more interest in working.

 

 

Left school at sixteen with 6 "O" levels and did an engineering apprenticeship, now employed solving engineering problems for people with Dr in front of their names.

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, MvR said:

I've been chatting to a friend who's very much into silver, gold and uranium. Quite a serious investor who travels to meet the CEOs when he can. He likes companies with large resources in the ground, and large owner shareholdings. His tips for uranium, roughly in order of preference, are :-

1. Uranium Energy Corp (US) http://www.uraniumenergy.com  

2. Fission ( Canada) https://www.fissionuranium.com - Possible takeover target, Chinese have bought a 20% stake.

3. Denison Mines (US) http://www.denisonmines.com/s/Home.asp - Father / Son outfit where the family are still the major shareholders.

4. Cameco(US) https://www.cameco.com  The BP of uranium mining.

5. Sky Harbour Resources( Canada ) http://skyharbourltd.com 

6. Goviex Uranium ( Canada ) http://www.goviex.com - Mining in Africa.. higher risk play due to political risk, but worth a punt apparently. 

DYOR obviously, but I thought I'd throw these names out there for those who are interested. The Canadian stocks might be unavailable depending on your brokerage, which is a shame.

Thanks ever so much for that MvR.

Always appreciate your input.I'll check those out.We've got Cameco already as I've said,but I don't really like ETF's

 

9 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Purely anecdotal and a small sample size but these are up beat city high flyer types who I've never heard a negative word from.

My friend looked old and tired suddenly.

 

 

I think a lot of middle income people are more expsoed than ever to a downturn.Anyone with less than 30% equity in their home is at risk of neg eq.In the SE,I suspect that won't be enough.

 

1 hour ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

@Castlevania, I'm not surprised by that. BTL seems a mental idea to me; getting someone you don't know to pay your mortgage, when they've not been allowed one. Oh, and you've got to be at their beck and call to fix stuff they've probably broken, which they are less likely to care about as it's not theirs in the first place.

Generalisations I know (no offence to those of you who rent), but as an investment class it seems far too much like hard work to me.

We rent on a  circa 3.5% gross yield in an area I really like for the moment.I'm genuinely worried my Landlord will start doing the maths as S24 kicks in and realise how much of a shoeing he's in for.Luckily,I don't think he knows anything about S24 and neither do a lot of the small 1-4 BTL brigade,many of whom are already 40% taxpayers.

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not sure to be honest,it depends on if/how hard they run.If they dont il be holding them and id average some more later if needed.I could increase the holdings 30% without them being too large a part of my portfolio.It would be nice to have to decide if the GDX runs to the $36+ area later in the year.Some of these miners are very very cheap though.If PMs do run there will be some big gains.

PM's went down less than the wider market.Of late,there don't appear to be signs that the PM miners will buck the downtrend which I think is ongoing.As I've said several times previously,I think we've seen the top in the Dow and most likely the S&P as well.

I'll be keeping the miners we've already bought but am going to sit out and wait before I add any more despite being depserate to add Kinross and Sibanye.

Interesting to see Centrica at £1.55+.Flattish on the day when some over hyped shares took a beating.

Wouldn't buy them at £20 in the current environment.

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great to see you here.Thats the sentiment you want to see.When everyone thinks something cant go down,it goes down.I have a chart somewhere that showed the attitude to debt from the Great Depression onwards.Just after the GD debt was hated.Those peoples children also werent happy with debt,having seen their parents suffer.The grandchildren started to fear debt less and their children didnt love or fear it.Now we are back where everyone thinks rates never go up,leverage never gets called in,a re-finance is always available etc etc.

 

Referencing these two posts as they allude to the same thing.I'm a great believer in this being a once in 70/80 year credit recession.As you say,those born after GD1-including my dear old Grandad who taught me as much as he could about money-were intrinsically against debt and leverage.As you say,each generation gets more and more relaxed about it until we have GD2 and so on.

I think delayed parenthood and longer lives explain the delay with this one,as well as the Cb's thinking they can fend off gravity.

7 hours ago, eek said:

The cleverest people I know are also the thickest...

and it's not just uncomfortable truths - I think its more they can't see things outside their worldview and therefore don't see the bigger picture until its too late..

I am starting to think that 2018 = 1928....

As above,new debt is buying ever lessening amounts of GDP growth.

[azzuri82]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

According to a friend of mine who works in a middle office role for an investment bank (and he’s been made redundant twice in his career) is that the really big earners (traders and the like) generally don’t do buy to let. He’s never met a trader with one. They might own a holiday home, in some cases more than one but that’s it. Go to the support functions (trade support, the accountants, lawyers etc) and you’ll find a pile of people balls deep in buy to let. It’s the professional classes dirty little secret.

Yep, the ones that are jealous of the wealth of their clients whom have made more money in supposed 'inferior' trades. It's jealousy that creates this "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" mentality with lawyers, accountants, tax advisers etc. 

[No Duff (troll)]

25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

As above,new debt is buying ever lessening amounts of GDP 

GFP, properly adjusted for real inflation, pretty much zero for a while now.  Even possibly negative.  Need a new one to replace "pushing on a string".

[No Duff (troll)]

3 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Yep, the ones that are jealous of the wealth of their clients whom have made more money in supposed 'inferior' trades. It's jealousy that creates this "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" mentality with lawyers, accountants, tax advisers etc. 

Quite often, professional types usually get creamed in a downturn.  Also make for poor traders according to the trainers.  To do with arrogance due to having an expertise.

[Majorpain]

3 minutes ago, No Duff said:

Quite often, professional types usually get creamed in a downturn.  Also make for poor traders according to the trainers.  To do with arrogance due to having an expertise.

Good schooling, good university, rolled into a high paying middle class job without too much difficulty.  Hard work will get you so far, but i always prefer to be lucky than good.

Arrogance is an interesting term to use, i suppose if you drive round in your luxury 4x4 looking out at the great unwashed estates then the temptation to think your better than other people is always going to arise.  I seem to think i can time my purchases of shiny miners during the coming deflation, even though my past trading history is not great, but that isnt going to stop me trying!

[ashestoashes]

Vodaphone continues to decline, buying opportunity yet ?

[macca]

2 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

@Castlevania, I'm not surprised by that. BTL seems a mental idea to me; getting someone you don't know to pay your mortgage, when they've not been allowed one. Oh, and you've got to be at their beck and call to fix stuff they've probably broken, which they are less likely to care about as it's not theirs in the first place.

Generalisations I know (no offence to those of you who rent), but as an investment class it seems far too much like hard work to me.

you have not met my landlord.. lives in Spain, 5 houses here.. If I tell him there's a problem he says "fix it then".. I'm in Spain.. I cant do it.. I think you read the lies of landlords saying how its all hard work running a BTleech empire..

[Inoperational Bumblebee]

1 hour ago, macca said:

you have not met my landlord.. lives in Spain, 5 houses here.. If I tell him there's a problem he says "fix it then".. I'm in Spain.. I cant do it.. I think you read the lies of landlords saying how its all hard work running a BTleech empire..

I guess it's more a comment on how I would approach it than anything. I did say it was generalisation, I suppose that applies to appropriate attitudes to landlording too! It's not for me, I know that.

[macca]

12 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

But these people with all the brains and no common sense appear to be in all/most/many of the top positions in business/industry/politics. Where power lies.

It's frightening.

But is it Brains? Are passing exams the proof of brains? Or the ability to remember questions and answers? 

I have a memory stick that holds data, it can remember anything I put on it.. 

But I’m not sure that makes it an intelligent memory stick.. 😂

[No Duff (troll)]

7 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Good schooling, good university, rolled into a high paying middle class job without too much difficulty.  Hard work will get you so far, but i always prefer to be lucky than good.

Arrogance is an interesting term to use, i suppose if you drive round in your luxury 4x4 looking out at the great unwashed estates then the temptation to think your better than other people is always going to arise.  I seem to think i can time my purchases of shiny miners during the coming deflation, even though my past trading history is not great, but that isnt going to stop me trying!

Arrogance in slowness to accept trading losses because "you were wrong" even though losses are normal.  The tendency to transfer your skill and certainty to trading - you're good at x so shall you be good at trading.  That sort of stuff. 

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, macca said:

But is it Brains? Are passing exams the proof of brains? Or the ability to remember questions and answers? 

I have a memory stick that holds data, it can remember anything I put on it.. 

But I’m not sure that makes it an intelligent memory stick.. 😂

Yes it is intelligence. Say what you like about senior managers they do have an innate ability. The same as most senior officers in the army. 

Whether its directed in a way that will give any individual the optimum benefit depends on the individuals situation. Whether its directed in a way that will give the organisation or society the optimum benefit, that's a whole other ball game.  There have been so many analyses on how societal systems are arranged to incentivise individuals to manage resources under their control to give the best result for everyone as a whole. Go back to Plato and the Republic to get the answer to that.

The ability to hold data is a pre-requisite for intelligence, how the data is used is next. We've all met the person with loads of qualifications and strings of letters after their name who cant boil an egg. They are using their intelligence in a different way.

Senior managers, with high levels of intelligence have adopted strategies that have failed. Does that make them stupid, no just wrong. It could even have been the right strategy but timed wrong. Cometh the hour cometh the man. 

Anyway I'm still trying to decide what to invest in. Gold is dipping, the housing market is falling, summer lull or start of the predicted fall?

[MrXxx]

2 hours ago, macca said:

But is it Brains? Are passing exams the proof of brains? Or the ability to remember questions and answers? 

I have a memory stick that holds data, it can remember anything I put on it.. 

But I’m not sure that makes it an intelligent memory stick.. 😂

Brilliant analogy, I am going to steal that one if you don't mind!

[MrXxx]

4 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Yes it is intelligence. Say what you like about senior managers they do have an innate ability. The same as most senior officers in the army. 

Whether its directed in a way that will give any individual the optimum benefit depends on the individuals situation. Whether its directed in a way that will give the organisation or society the optimum benefit, that's a whole other ball game.  There have been so many analyses on how societal systems are arranged to incentivise individuals to manage resources under their control to give the best result for everyone as a whole. Go back to Plato and the Republic to get the answer to that.

The ability to hold data is a pre-requisite for intelligence, how the data is used is next. We've all met the person with loads of qualifications and strings of letters after their name who cant boil an egg. They are using their intelligence in a different way.

Senior managers, with high levels of intelligence have adopted strategies that have failed. Does that make them stupid, no just wrong. It could even have been the right strategy but timed wrong. Cometh the hour cometh the man. 

Anyway I'm still trying to decide what to invest in. Gold is dipping, the housing market is falling, summer lull or start of the predicted fall?

Senior managers (like senior officers in the army) have an innate ability to fit into a past system without challenging it...whether that is a good thing depends on whether we are in a period of stasis or rapid change..."Evolve or die!"

[A_P]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Yes it is intelligence. Say what you like about senior managers they do have an innate ability. The same as most senior officers in the army.

I wouldn't call it intelligence. From my experiance usually sociopathic, narcissistic and maybe even psychopathic traits. Also the ability to lose half their pension when they hit their 50's. Seen it so many times it's quite funny when I look back at it.

[Lightscribe]

50 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I wouldn't call it intelligence. From my experiance usually sociopathic, narcissistic and maybe even psychopathic traits. Also the ability to lose half their pension when they hit their 50's. Seen it so many times it's quite funny when I look back at it.

I would agree with this, and add privileged background. Certainly most army officers I’ve ever met have been middle-class wannabe blue bloods with not much common sense.

I gather by your avatar, you frequent 4chan? shadilay

[TheCountOfNowhere]

So, what we know this week.

BoE handed £750bn to lend out

MPC vote 6/3 to keep rates which might indicate IRs will rise in Aug

Carney does mansion house speech saying IRs will go to 0.

House prices are insane.

Stock Market near all time highs

Poor queuing up for food banks.

I've got a new bike and a sore arse.

 

Have I missed anything ?