Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

So, what we know this week.

BoE handed £750bn to lend out

MPC vote 6/3 to keep rates which might indicate IRs will rise in Aug

Carney does mansion house speech saying IRs will go to 0.

House prices are insane.

Stock Market near all time highs

Poor queuing up for food banks.

I've got a new bike and a sore arse.

 

Have I missed anything ?

 

Oil Price?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Oil Price?

Petrol prices dipping a little, still extortionate, still being used to tax the hell out of peoples earned money,

 

[kibuc]

22 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Have I missed anything ?

Metals getting bitch-slapped.

Oh, and Foxtons shares getting floored. I can't believe you missed that one

[reformed nice guy]

39 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

So, what we know this week.

BoE handed £750bn to lend out

MPC vote 6/3 to keep rates which might indicate IRs will rise in Aug

Carney does mansion house speech saying IRs will go to 0.

House prices are insane.

Stock Market near all time highs

Poor queuing up for food banks.

I've got a new bike and a sore arse.

 

Have I missed anything ?

 

 

Tariffs! tariffs everywhere! And they seem to be a problem for tech companies that are the main source of recent stock market bubbling

 

[macca]

5 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Yes it is intelligence. Say what you like about senior managers they do have an innate ability.

When I worked in  IT, going down to the directors office.. he had sent all his credit card details to an email he had received from the FBI.. 😂

His credit card was being used for fraud and they wanted him to send all his details.. Needless to say that company went too the wall! 

Anyway at least the country is being run by those with the highest qualifications from oxford and Cambridge.. Hows that working out for us all.. 💩

 

[sleepwello'nights]

20 minutes ago, macca said:

When I worked in  IT, going down to the directors office.. he had sent all his credit card details to an email he had received from the FBI.. 😂

His credit card was being used for fraud and they wanted him to send all his details.. Needless to say that company went too the wall! 

Anyway at least the country is being run by those with the highest qualifications from oxford and Cambridge.. Hows that working out for us all.. 💩

 

Well sure, they are intelligent, but not necessarily smart.

Have I told you the joke about the graduate when he started work in his first job after graduating?

The new graduate turned up on his first day and was told to report to the factory manager. He rolled up and the manager gave him a broom and asked him to sweep the yard. But "I'm the new graduate" he said. 

"Silly me" said the manager, "I didn't realise, here let me show you how"

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I wouldn't call it intelligence. From my experiance usually sociopathic, narcissistic and maybe even psychopathic traits. Also the ability to lose half their pension 

I've met some very intelligent psychopaths.

[azzuri82]

Do any of you folks have a SIPP? I'm transferring around £80k from a workplace pension and looking for somewhere for it to go. I know of HL - anywhere else that's worth considering?

[A_P]

7 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Do any of you folks have a SIPP? I'm transferring around £80k from a workplace pension and looking for somewhere for it to go. I know of HL - anywhere else that's worth considering?

http://monevator.com/two-ways-to-help-you-find-the-best-online-broker-or-investment-platform/ Is a good place to get started

There are more things to consider than just the headline charges with a SIPP, like the drawdown phase, exit/transfer charges. Best to DYOR. Fees can soon mount up as well depending on the type and frequency of the trading you're going to be doing. So not only need to consider where you are now, but where you'll likely be in the future with your holdings etc. I don't think there's anyone perfect broker, all have their pro's and con's.

[kibuc]

@DurhamBorn What's your opinion on today's developments at Sibanye? They seem to have come under parliamentary scrutiny following their 21st deadly accident this year:

https://www.enca.com/south-africa/another-fatality-in-sibanye-mine-accident

 

They dropped 10% today.

Do you think that things like revoking their license or maybe nationalization could be on the cards? Or is a slap on the wrist more likely, and this dip is just another buying opportunity?

[Sound Money]

59 minutes ago, kibuc said:

@DurhamBorn What's your opinion on today's developments at Sibanye? They seem to have come under parliamentary scrutiny following their 21st deadly accident this year:

https://www.enca.com/south-africa/another-fatality-in-sibanye-mine-accident

 

They dropped 10% today.

Do you think that things like revoking their license or maybe nationalization could be on the cards? Or is a slap on the wrist more likely, and this dip is just another buying opportunity?

Sorry, my fault, I bought yesterday

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

@DurhamBorn What's your opinion on today's developments at Sibanye? They seem to have come under parliamentary scrutiny following their 21st deadly accident this year:

https://www.enca.com/south-africa/another-fatality-in-sibanye-mine-accident

 

They dropped 10% today.

Do you think that things like revoking their license or maybe nationalization could be on the cards? Or is a slap on the wrist more likely, and this dip is just another buying opportunity?

No opinion on it,this sort of thing happens all the time in SA.A lot of the deaths are due to union members breaking safety rules.Sibanye are hated at the moment,Rand was strong,gold down,debt high and these deaths that keep stopping production.They are back to where they were the 13th June.Iv been buying a few more miners earlier,i expect gold to hit $1450 still,how it gets there who knows.Sibanye is a play on platinum running (i think it will) and the chance of a multi bagger,the same as most of the other gold plays.Iv owned it twice before (at much higher prices) and its returned me 150%.This time i expect higher returns unless the Rand gold price goes below 500k a kg.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

@DurhamBorn What's your opinion on today's developments at Sibanye? They seem to have come under parliamentary scrutiny following their 21st deadly accident this year:

https://www.enca.com/south-africa/another-fatality-in-sibanye-mine-accident

 

They dropped 10% today.

Do you think that things like revoking their license or maybe nationalization could be on the cards? Or is a slap on the wrist more likely, and this dip is just another buying opportunity?

aha was wondering why my green went red, good spot.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Do any of you folks have a SIPP? I'm transferring around £80k from a workplace pension and looking for somewhere for it to go. I know of HL - anywhere else that's worth considering?

I presume you know because it's over £30k, that you have to be ripped off by financial advisors? Plus if your financial advisor advised against you mvoing it to HL, they would refuse to accept the transfer. AFAIK only AJ Bell will accept a transfer in, even if your financial advisor advised against it.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 25/06/2018 at 14:32, eek said:

The cleverest people I know are also the thickest...

and it's not just uncomfortable truths - I think its more they can't see things outside their worldview and therefore don't see the bigger picture until its too late..

I am starting to think that 2018 = 1928....

Totally agree - I found the ones that had been to public school the MOST thickest!

[Democorruptcy]

On 25/06/2018 at 11:49, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Went to see a friend of mine at the weekend who works for a large american bank ( in London ).

Word on the street is that everyone thinks it's the end of the world but they themselves think it's a storm in a tea cup.

No sign of any bank's in trouble ( they called the big french bank problems months before it went mainstream ).

However, there aint no jobs so everyone is trying to weather the storm !!!

One of the BBQ goers said her husband had been out of work 2 years with no sign of a job.  He's an "executive" and doesnt want to work in MacDonalds.

The words, divorce and throw the lazy c**t out, were used.  They will have to sell their property portfolio if the get divorced though ( a factor plenty of us would't have considered, as the 30 somethings in London who've piled into BTL/Debt hit that 10 years of unhappiness mark and decided enough is enough, plenty distress sales will appear, what's the divorce rate, 50% ? )

One person said, I kid you not, what's more important, you'r happiness or the shity flats you're losing money on.

My host, seems quite relaxed but the comment, "no point worrying when your up to your neck in debt" was quite revealing.  They were very happy that a house near them had gone under offer for 50% more than they paid last year though, last year they were telling me prices were down in that part of London, maybe they bought "the dip".  They were talking about getting a cheap kitchen into their £1.2M house, as they were skint 

Purely anecdotal and a small sample size but these are up beat city high flyer types who I've never heard a negative word from.

My friend looked old and tired suddenly.

 

 

Thank god you didn't post that on ToS. There's a count character there who would have been shouting for the mods to move it and calling you a troll

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 25/06/2018 at 17:31, Gordie Lastchance said:

Do you have to use the front door, or is the tunnel still available?

...yep and a new film coming - I WON'T be going to pay, i'll hack/stream it of the NET!

[Agent ZigZag]

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I presume you know because it's over £30k, that you have to be ripped off by financial advisors? Plus if your financial advisor advised against you mvoing it to HL, they would refuse to accept the transfer. AFAIK only AJ Bell will accept a transfer in, even if your financial advisor advised against it.

So am I correct in saying that  if you have a company pension in excess of £30k and you want to transfer it to a SIPP to manage your own money you have to pay others to do the transfer?

[A_P]

11 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

So am I correct in saying that  if you have a company pension in excess of £30k and you want to transfer it to a SIPP to manage your own money you have to pay others to do the transfer?

 

25 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I presume you know because it's over £30k, that you have to be ripped off by financial advisors? Plus if your financial advisor advised against you mvoing it to HL, they would refuse to accept the transfer. AFAIK only AJ Bell will accept a transfer in, even if your financial advisor advised against it.

When I did my transfer (over £30k) at the start of the year I didn't have to get advice. I can't recall verbatim what it said on my transfer form but I ticked one box on the main transfer form to say it was over £30k and then had to fill out another form saying I'm cool without having advice. iirc it was more about making sure I knew what I was doing and that it wasn't pension theft/fraud etc. I think there are different rules around a DB pension though.

Ill happily dig out the forms if you guys need further clarifcation but my transfer went ok, completed in 4 weeks.

[sancho panza]

The dominoes continue to start wavering in the wind.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/26/as-turkish-lira-collapses-foreign-banks-in-turkey-rue-the-day/

'Few foreign banks are as exposed to the risks currently affecting Turkey than Spain’s second biggest lender, BBVA. The bank owns about half of Turkey’s third biggest lender, which provides roughly 15% of its global revenues. But those revenues are under threat as the value of the currency they’re denominated in, the Turkish Lira, continues to fall.

Year-to-date, Garanti shares are down 26%.The stock is denominated in lira, and the lira has has plunged 19% year-to-date against dollar and 17% against the euro. The currency devaluation plus the slide in the bank’s share price combined make for a 39% loss year-to-date for a euro-based investor, such as BBVA.

Lenders have paid a heavy price across the board. The Turkish banks index has declined almost 25% year-to-date. Combined with the currency devaluation, foreign investors are looking at a near 40% loss as well so far this year.

At the same time the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to unwind its QE experiment and raise interest rates, heaping further pressure on emerging market currencies. As the local currency weakens against the dollar, it gets harder and harder for local companies to service foreign currency bonds. That’s how a currency crisis becomes a debt crisis.

When it comes to amassing foreign-denominated debt, Turkey’s corporate sector is in a class of its own. Its overall stock of private sector debt has grown from 33% of GDP in 2007 to 70% today. It also leads all other major emerging markets on total foreign-currency-denominated debt (including public debt), which hit 69.5% of GDP last year (up from 39.2% in 2009), comfortably ahead of second-placed Poland (53.5%) and Argentina (51%).

Turkey faces a vicious circle in which investors continue to ditch the lira, making it even harder for corporations to repay their large stacks of dollar-denominated debt, further worrying investors about the nation’s economy and giving them another reason to dump the currency. Rinse. Repeat.

As for BBVA, its emerging market roller coaster ride could get even bumpier. Its biggest global market, accounting for over 40% of the group’s global profits, is Mexico, a country that has its own share of problems, including an incipient trade war with its biggest trading partner, the U.S., a slowdown in business credit, an election on Sunday that has many of the country’s business elite on tenterhooks, and, last but not least, a weak currency. By Don Quijones. '

[Democorruptcy]

16 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

So am I correct in saying that  if you have a company pension in excess of £30k and you want to transfer it to a SIPP to manage your own money you have to pay others to do the transfer?

AFAIK if the pot is over £30k you are forced to pay for regulated advice.

http://thepensionreviewservice.com/db-pension-transfer-30000-advice-limit/

I was trying to do this myself earlier in the year and all the IFA's wanted to charge about 3% and then manage the money themselves. If you tell them you want to transfer to HL they won't like it. Then if they advise against it, HL won't accept it. I've read a press article about someone trying several times and paying several fees for nothing. I gave up because I ran out of time. My advice would be to find an IFA first, then ask for a transfer valuation because mine only lasted 3 months.

 

10 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

 

When I did my transfer (over £30k) at the start of the year I didn't have to get advice. I can't recall verbatim what it said on my transfer form but I ticked one box on the main transfer form to say it was over £30k and then had to fill out another form saying I'm cool without having advice. iirc it was more about making sure I knew what I was doing and that it wasn't pension theft/fraud etc. I think there are different rules around a DB pension though.

Ill happily dig out the forms if you guys need further clarifcation but my transfer went ok, completed in 4 weeks.

I'd be interested to know which firm accepted the transfer knowing you hadn't paid for advice. Is it a firm managing it themselves?

[Agent ZigZag]

Thanks for the heads up on the rules. Would the same apply transferring from one SIPP provider to another again if over £30k

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Thanks for the heads up on the rules. Would the same apply transferring from one SIPP provider to another again if over £30k

 

 

If you mean could you transfer it to a SIPP (say AJ Bell because they will accept it if if advice is against it), then move it from AJ Bell to HL, I assume that's OK because the important bit, whether to take it or not from the compnay pension is already decided. DYOR etc.

[Agent ZigZag]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you mean could you transfer it to a SIPP (say AJ Bell because they will accept it if if advice is against it), then move it from AJ Bell to HL, I assume that's OK because the important bit, whether to take it or not from the compnay pension is already decided. DYOR etc.

Nice one Demo

[Thorn]

Just now, Agent ZigZag said:

Nice one Demo

 

Just now, Agent ZigZag said:

Nice one Demo

I recently moved mine from Nucleus, managed by an IFA for his fat fee, to HL. No fee for transfer, no IFA advice used or paid for.

Nucleus dragged their feet I reckon it was worth it...here we are the summer is coming and as Sancho Panza says from article above, look at the craziness abroad.

Its getting a bit bonkers out there. Look at the value of gold versus the currency of Iran at the moment. 

[A_P]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

AFAIK if the pot is over £30k you are forced to pay for regulated advice.

http://thepensionreviewservice.com/db-pension-transfer-30000-advice-limit/

I was trying to do this myself earlier in the year and all the IFA's wanted to charge about 3% and then manage the money themselves. If you tell them you want to transfer to HL they won't like it. Then if they advise against it, HL won't accept it. I've read a press article about someone trying several times and paying several fees for nothing. I gave up because I ran out of time. My advice would be to find an IFA first, then ask for a transfer valuation because mine only lasted 3 months.

 

I'd be interested to know which firm accepted the transfer knowing you hadn't paid for advice. Is it a firm managing it themselves?

interactive Investor is the broker but the scheme is with BW SIPP LLP who I beleive are one of the big pension providers.

I've just dug the transfer form out. Transfers over £30k are ok and as one would expect can easily (but with admin fees/charges) move SIPPs around.

Where there maybe a problem as I said before is with DB pensions. I understand this because one would be bit of an idiot to give up some of the DB/final salary pensions to move it into a SIPP. This is what the transfer form says:

For schemes which are:

• Retirement Annuity Plans

•Defined Benefit Occupational Pension Schemes

Where your transfer value is

£30,000 or more you will need to complete a Financial Advice Declaration Form.

Where the transfer value is less than £30,000 and you don’t provide a Financial Advice Declaration Form, then the

transfer value must represent less than 10% of the current value of your SIPP plus the value of any defined contribution

pensions you also intend to transfer to it and/or any contributions to be made to it.