Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

The John Lewis Partnership, which owns John Lewis and Waitrose, announced on Wednesday that it expects profits to be almost completely WIPED OUT this year.

 

LOOKING Good folks!

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/waitrose-stores-closing-where-110100031.html

 

I told my missus to go and spend the JL vouchers she had.

She did, she thought I was being a bit daft, JL wont crash she said.

She said London house prices wouldnt either, she's changed her mind on that now.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Hey DB,

 

Sibanye is down 23% since i bought on Friday, told ya i bought at the TOP! Haha

 

Just bought New Gold Inc & Eldorado Gold...wonder if i've bought at the TOP again!

 

All joking aside, i'm able to average down 1 time only...as these stocks are HIGH RISK its only going to be a small part of my portfolio.

[Gordie Lastchance]

1 hour ago, No Duff said:

That's why you have "partners" rather than "employees".  Pays dividends, or rather not in this case!

Closing a few tiddler stores, wow.  Aldi taking over Camden.  Sign of times - Aldi= Waitrose Essentials++ but without the price or feeling of inferiority at checkout.

Lots of comments about excessive prices.  What can they do?

If they're issuing a profit warning now - what are their prospects during a reflation? DB has warned of double-digit inflation coming not as a blip, but lodging itself long-term, from what I understand of his comments. If profits are being wiped out because people are struggling to afford their offering at the moment - goodness knows how they'll fare when inflation gets its horns out.

To think it's happening to a bedrock of the retail scene...

Doesn't bode well.

Is this why Sainsbury's and Asda are looking at becoming bedfellows?

[leonardratso]

26 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Hey DB,

 

Sibanye is down 23% since i bought on Friday, told ya i bought at the TOP! Haha

 

Just bought New Gold Inc & Eldorado Gold...wonder if i've bought at the TOP again!

 

All joking aside, i'm able to average down 1 time only...as these stocks are HIGH RISK its only going to be a small part of my portfolio.

EGO just kicked the bucket today also, down 17-18% today.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

15 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

EGO just kicked the bucket today also, down 17-18% today.

EGO who ? NO ticker at HL?

[leonardratso]

Just now, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

EGO who ? NO ticker at HL?

eldorado gold (NYSE:EGO) i think its following sibayne(ego 8% today maybe 8-10% yesterday) down  since new gold inc and other none SA goldies are about even/slightly down.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

33 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

If they're issuing a profit warning now - what are their prospects during a reflation? DB has warned of double-digit inflation coming not as a blip, but lodging itself long-term, from what I understand of his comments. If profits are being wiped out because people are struggling to afford their offering at the moment - goodness knows how they'll fare when inflation gets its horns out.

To think it's happening to a bedrock of the retail scene...

Doesn't bode well.

Is this why Sainsbury's and Asda are looking at becoming bedfellows?

They'll simply join the... yellow reduced sticker vulchers VIP Club!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

eldorado gold (NYSE:EGO) i think its following sibayne(ego 8% today maybe 8-10% yesterday) down  since new gold inc and other none SA goldies are about even/slightly down.

Eldorado Gold Corp (ELD) Com NPV - it was down 3% when i bought NOW down 10%

Told ya I always buy at the TOP !

DB, will probably not post anymore stocks ...cos if i buy 'em seems to be the kiss of death! haha

Still i anit panicking! ....YET.

 

 

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Eldorado Gold Corp (ELD) Com NPV - it was down 3% when i bought NOW down 10%

Told ya I always buy at the TOP !

DB, will probably not post anymore stocks ...cos if i buy 'em seems to be the kiss of death! haha

Still i anit panicking! ....YET.

 

 

got to expect a wild ride on just geopolitical risk alone, not to mention FX, so i would NOT bet the farm on them. o,

Im treating them like crypto, i have some skin in the game, but its nothing im going to miss if it all goes to crap.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Eldorado Gold Corp (ELD) Com NPV - it was down 3% when i bought NOW down 10%

Told ya I always buy at the TOP !

DB, will probably not post anymore stocks ...cos if i buy 'em seems to be the kiss of death! haha

Still i anit panicking! ....YET.

 

 

Keep drip feeding every month, put the kettle on and chill.

[Dogtania]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

got to expect a wild ride on just geopolitical risk alone, not to mention FX, so i would NOT bet the farm on them. o,

Im treating them like crypto, i have some skin in the game, but its nothing im going to miss if it all goes to crap.

Not to mention miners and their market view being notoriously capricious.  Thinking of it like crypto lite maybe a bit of truth (or extra lite!). Certainly shouldn't bet the house but moves like this I don't think uncommon in the sphere.  

My only experience with miners (apart from a shady aim one!) was holding a fund that in 6-9 months doubled then not long after dropped 75%+.  And this was at the same time as gold climbing ever higher.  Despite the blurb I had read on HL and elsewhere the mining fund wasnt (and isn't always) a play on gold price.  

[StrugglingMillennial]

This is a post from another forum that is from 11/2/2006

Interesting considering the recent increase in pump prices 🤔

 

The Great Crash lasted from 1989-96. I bought a house in Surrey for 189k in 1990. The seller had paid 280k for it in the mid 1980's. That was the extent of the devastation that the Great Crash wrought on prices in that area.

We were living in California immediately prior to that and bought a house in 1988 for $274k. Sold it in April 1989 for $374k. One year later it was back on the market for $275k.

The Great Crash was a very serious property price correction both in the UK and in certain hotspot markets in the US. The history of house price crashes since WW2 shows:

1. The troughs are roughtly equal to 50% of the preceding peak.

2. The UK market mirrors similar bubble markets in the US both in timing and extent of losses.

3. There has NEVER been a soft landing.

4. Oil price hikes preceded each crash.

5. The present bubble has seen house prices rise about 130% overall which means we could see history repeat itself with a precipitous drop of 65%.

[MrXxx]

40 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Not to mention miners and their market view being notoriously capricious.  Thinking of it like crypto lite maybe a bit of truth (or extra lite!). Certainly shouldn't bet the house but moves like this I don't think uncommon in the sphere.  

My only experience with miners (apart from a shady aim one!) was holding a fund that in 6-9 months doubled then not long after dropped 75%+.  And this was at the same time as gold climbing ever higher.  Despite the blurb I had read on HL and elsewhere the mining fund wasnt (and isn't always) a play on gold price.  

I posted a pdf from some academics that showed this i.e. how miners behave more like equities (or have a greater correlation) in a portfolio due to having assets that are not linked directly to the price of gold.

Whilst we are discussing this I would like to throw out a couple of points for discussion having looked a PM equities today on a couple of platforms.

1. Although gold in hand i.e. buried in the back garden is'secure' it has to be stored securely and so many buy but keep it in vaults, either way there is a large spread especially with coinage. An alternative is to buy an Gold ETF backed by the real stuff...although it is sometimes suggested that gold in hand is better in a SHTF scenario do a)people really think it could be used/spent in such a scenario, AND b) if in a vault in a SHTF scenario do you really think you would be allowed access to it?...my thinking in no to both and so feel inclined to suggest that a gold ETF is the est way to get exposure to gold as you a) dont have to pay for the security, b) the spread is narrower, and c) with an impending SHTF scenario you could still trade.

2. Do people think a portfolio with both a gold ETF and a selection of miners is a good approach?

3. I am probably going to state the obvious here but whats the point of Gold miners ETF's, especially with the volatility of gold...are you not better just looking at those ETF's to see what the manager is buying/'managing' and doing the same yourself thus without his fee? AND, are gold miner ETF's not pointless as they are just the equivalent of an equity index fund that will give 'vanilla' returns?

4.Why can I not find KIDD documents on II site/platform?

[MrXxx]

35 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

This is a post from another forum that is from 11/2/2006

Interesting considering the recent increase in pump prices 🤔

 

The Great Crash lasted from 1989-96. I bought a house in Surrey for 189k in 1990. The seller had paid 280k for it in the mid 1980's. That was the extent of the devastation that the Great Crash wrought on prices in that area.

We were living in California immediately prior to that and bought a house in 1988 for $274k. Sold it in April 1989 for $374k. One year later it was back on the market for $275k.

The Great Crash was a very serious property price correction both in the UK and in certain hotspot markets in the US. The history of house price crashes since WW2 shows:

1. The troughs are roughtly equal to 50% of the preceding peak.

2. The UK market mirrors similar bubble markets in the US both in timing and extent of losses.

3. There has NEVER been a soft landing.

4. Oil price hikes preceded each crash.

5. The present bubble has seen house prices rise about 130% overall which means we could see history repeat itself with a precipitous drop of 65%.

I would like to see this but feel that far too many people consider that economics follows set rules/patterns, almost as if its a precise science like physics/chemistry....the nearest  I think it gets is more like biology, which as we know is quite dynamic and evolves over time.

[A_P]

3 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I posted a pdf from some academics that showed this i.e. how miners behave more like equities (or have a greater correlation) in a portfolio due to having assets that are not linked directly to the price of gold.

Whilst we are discussing this I would like to throw out a couple of points for discussion having looked a PM equities today on a couple of platforms.

1. Although gold in hand i.e. buried in the back garden is'secure' it has to be stored securely and so many buy but keep it in vaults, either way there is a large spread especially with coinage. An alternative is to buy an Gold ETF backed by the real stuff...although it is sometimes suggested that gold in hand is better in a SHTF scenario do a)people really think it could be used/spent in such a scenario, AND b) if in a vault in a SHTF scenario do you really think you would be allowed access to it?...my thinking in no to both and so feel inclined to suggest that a gold ETF is the est way to get exposure to gold as you a) dont have to pay for the security, b) the spread is narrower, and c) with an impending SHTF scenario you could still trade.

2. Why can I not find KIDD documents on II site/platform?

8

1. I've sided with ETC's for my gold/pm exposure as part of my balanced portfolio presently. Did consider coins earlier in the year but current living arrangements (rented) aren't ideal and the spread is a kicker. Vault, like you has it's own issues and it can't really be put into an ISA or SIPP without some legwork at least. Wouldn't mind a bit of a flutter on some of the miners but the amount I'm talking is a bit of a barrier of entry with the costs and/or tax so for the time being that's on hold.

2. Go to the trade/buy section and the cost disclosure and KIDD documents appear once you enter in the company/stock/etf etc. Alternatively, they can be viewed under the research area of the website.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Eldorado Gold Corp (ELD) Com NPV - it was down 3% when i bought NOW down 10%

Told ya I always buy at the TOP !

DB, will probably not post anymore stocks ...cos if i buy 'em seems to be the kiss of death! haha

Still i anit panicking! ....YET.

 

 

Some could be down 95% off peak.

Check out it's balance sheet.

Total assets $5bn versus total liabilities $1.45bn

https://www.investing.com/equities/eldorado-gold-corp.-balance-sheet?cid=20816
DYOR natch.We own at circa $2.8o and circa $1.80.Down a chunk.

 

 

3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

got to expect a wild ride on just geopolitical risk alone, not to mention FX, so i would NOT bet the farm on them. o,

Im treating them like crypto, i have some skin in the game, but its nothing im going to miss if it all goes to crap.

They mine in Turkey,Greece (where they've got govt troubles),Brazil,Romania.

Not for the  faint hearted but not going under any time soon.

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Keep drip feeding every month, put the kettle on and chill.

Best post in a while on the subject.Calling the bottom is for gamblers.I won't be averaging in any more on EGO until I've loaded up all the other PM miners I'd like-and there are a lot of them.Some of my current crop are up but most are down.A position I'm not unfamiliar with after 25 years of investing.

4 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

1. I've sided with ETC's for my gold/pm exposure as part of my balanced portfolio presently. Did consider coins earlier in the year but current living arrangements (rented) aren't ideal and the spread is a kicker. Vault, like you has it's own issues and it can't really be put into an ISA or SIPP without some legwork at least. Wouldn't mind a bit of a flutter on some of the miners but the amount I'm talking is a bit of a barrier of entry with the costs and/or tax so for the time being that's on hold.

2. Go to the trade/buy section and the cost disclosure and KIDD documents appear once you enter in the company/stock/etf etc. Alternatively, they can be viewed under the research area of the website.

This is the flip side of not opting for GDX ie upside much bigger but so's the down side

6 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

The John Lewis Partnership, which owns John Lewis and Waitrose, announced on Wednesday that it expects profits to be almost completely WIPED OUT this year.

 

LOOKING Good folks!

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/waitrose-stores-closing-where-110100031.html

They're looking exposed aren't they?

[MrXxx]

25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Some could be down 95% off peak.

Check out it's balance sheet.

Total assets $5bn versus total liabilities $1.45bn

https://www.investing.com/equities/eldorado-gold-corp.-balance-sheet?cid=20816
DYOR natch.We own at circa $2.8o and circa $1.80.Down a chunk.

 

 

They mine in Turkey,Greece (where they've got govt troubles),Brazil,Romania.

Not for the  faint hearted but not going under any time soon.

Best post in a while on the subject.Calling the bottom is for gamblers.I won't be averaging in any more on EGO until I've loaded up all the other PM miners I'd like-and there are a lot of them.Some of my current crop are up but most are down.A position I'm not unfamiliar with after 25 years of investing.

This is the flip side of not opting for GDX ie upside much bigger but so's the down side

They're looking exposed aren't they?

This is why I suggested having gold and gold miners in a portfolio...the miners acting between equities and gold in a similar fashion to property sitting between equities and bonds.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

28 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Some could be down 95% off peak.

Check out it's balance sheet.

Total assets $5bn versus total liabilities $1.45bn

https://www.investing.com/equities/eldorado-gold-corp.-balance-sheet?cid=20816

DYOR natch.We own at circa $2.8o and circa $1.80.Down a chunk.

EXACTLY!

My post is a bit tongue-in cheek,  and yeah those stocks I've bought are WELL down from their all time highs, BUT when these stocks get GOING ...I'll be walking around in my front parlour with my smoking jacket on, glass of malt in one hand & a cigar in the other hand ...sporting a GREAT Cheshire cat grin!

[Bear Hug]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Keep drip feeding every month, put the kettle on and chill.

 

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

...

Best post in a while on the subject.Calling the bottom is for gamblers.I won't be averaging in any more on EGO until I've loaded up all the other PM miners I'd like-and there are a lot of them.Some of my current crop are up but most are down.A position I'm not unfamiliar with after 25 years of investing.

...

This is the flip side of not opting for GDX ie upside much bigger but so's the down side

Sorry for slightly off-topic question but.. I find it difficult to drip feed at a typical £10 per transaction + 0.5% stamp duty (or 1%FX fees) (AJ Bell as an example but it seems to be similar to many others).

The "cheapest" way I can see to do lots of small dealings appears to be outside ISA wrapper, with something like Interactive Brokers

https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables/uk-international-stockbrokers

Obviously I'd lose out on dividend tax advantage but I assume it's not going to be a massive deal as some of these stocks are clearly a bit of a gamble.  Anything else I should worry about?

Thanks

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 

Sorry for slightly off-topic question but.. I find it difficult to drip feed at a typical £10 per transaction + 0.5% stamp duty (or 1%FX fees) (AJ Bell as an example but it seems to be similar to many others).

The "cheapest" way I can see to do lots of small dealings appears to be outside ISA wrapper, with something like Interactive Brokers

https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables/uk-international-stockbrokers

Obviously I'd lose out on dividend tax advantage but I assume it's not going to be a massive deal as some of these stocks are clearly a bit of a gamble.  Anything else I should worry about?

Thanks

yar, drip feeding is only cost effective in funds to be honest. Slapping a hundred quid into an equity and paying 10£ to trade it and then  stamp duty is too expensive and will drive your cost per share up well above spot, possibly never get to green on it.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yar, drip feeding is only cost effective in funds to be honest. Slapping a hundred quid into an equity and paying 10£ to trade it and then  stamp duty is too expensive and will drive your cost per share up well above spot, possibly never get to green on it.

 

You can always use a portfolio builder account to do this £1 per trade per month plus SD, outside of your ISA of course.

[SpectrumFX]

9 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 

Sorry for slightly off-topic question but.. I find it difficult to drip feed at a typical £10 per transaction + 0.5% stamp duty (or 1%FX fees) (AJ Bell as an example but it seems to be similar to many others).

The "cheapest" way I can see to do lots of small dealings appears to be outside ISA wrapper, with something like Interactive Brokers

https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables/uk-international-stockbrokers

Obviously I'd lose out on dividend tax advantage but I assume it's not going to be a massive deal as some of these stocks are clearly a bit of a gamble.  Anything else I should worry about?

Thanks

Buying individual shares is very risky and/or expensive if you haven't got a lot of money to spread about. You either but a small number of shares and then aren't sufficiently diversified, or kill yourself with fees spreading a small amount of money too thinly to try and be diversified.

Index funds are cheaper and will give you better diversification until you've built up enough of a fund that the fees on a few individual shares won't bother you.

I don't invest less than £1000 in any individual share because otherwise the fee is too high.  Even then I've probably set that too low, and will be raising it in the future.

[A_P]

48 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 

Sorry for slightly off-topic question but.. I find it difficult to drip feed at a typical £10 per transaction + 0.5% stamp duty (or 1%FX fees) (AJ Bell as an example but it seems to be similar to many others).

The "cheapest" way I can see to do lots of small dealings appears to be outside ISA wrapper, with something like Interactive Brokers

https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables/uk-international-stockbrokers

Obviously I'd lose out on dividend tax advantage but I assume it's not going to be a massive deal as some of these stocks are clearly a bit of a gamble.  Anything else I should worry about?

Thanks

Seems like IB offer some form of sipp, but perhaps require a certain amount to have an account with them? Their website is a bit convoluted to be fair and I can't be bothered to dig through it atm.

I've just come across https://www.degiro.co.uk/ who seem really cheap. Has anyone got any experience with them?

Also, offer the ability to transfer in GBP, Euro's and USD, people could use revolut etc to save on FX if they don't have the currency already. Upon further reading, they don't allow that. Does seem their fx charges aren't bad though. So overall it appears these guys make it a bit more cost effective to dollar cost average in.

 

[sancho panza]

52 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 

Sorry for slightly off-topic question but.. I find it difficult to drip feed at a typical £10 per transaction + 0.5% stamp duty (or 1%FX fees) (AJ Bell as an example but it seems to be similar to many others).

The "cheapest" way I can see to do lots of small dealings appears to be outside ISA wrapper, with something like Interactive Brokers

https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables/uk-international-stockbrokers

Obviously I'd lose out on dividend tax advantage but I assume it's not going to be a massive deal as some of these stocks are clearly a bit of a gamble.  Anything else I should worry about?

Thanks

Leonards advice is good.Use an ETF equivalent for exposure eg ARCA, GDX.

You should maybe build up your income paying shares first then use the income to buy goldies.

36 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yar, drip feeding is only cost effective in funds to be honest. Slapping a hundred quid into an equity and paying 10£ to trade it and then  stamp duty is too expensive and will drive your cost per share up well above spot, possibly never get to green on it.

 

 

[leonardratso]

yes, my ma always told me i was oggd.