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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
WHY?
 
Firstly this post is in NO way having a go at you :Beer: SORRY I just don't agree with you.
 
I invest £500 per purchase on risky shares - cost to purchase around £11.00 (i also average down 1 or 2 times) These shares have the potential to go 10 baggers or MORE.
 
Over the last 28 years I've had funds etc...NONE performed better than my risky share portfolio, this was due to having a winner or 2 in my risky share portfolio going up more than 10X.
 
Let me give you an example, (THIS HAS STUCK IN MY HEAD ALL MY LIFE)
 
A friend i have known for over 30 years has basically NEVER worked offer than stock market trading.
 

He got his money by inheriting it, his father made ALL of his fortune on the STOCK market, and his fathers advice was NEVER ever bother with funds, all these dick-head fund mangers do is cream their percentage off YOU!  - THEY DO NOT GIVE a flying F**K how your money grows, all they are interested in is their commission!

We have different strategies. I would tend not to buy "risky" shares. I'm buying and holding stuff I think will return long term value. Obviously there's always some risk.

I have tried more "high risk" strategies in the past. And suffice it to say, I was somewhat less successful than either yourself, your friend, or his father.

xD

These days I don't buy "stock picker" managed funds either. I buy index funds. The fee on these are very low, as the management of them is very easy.

The trouble I see with the example of your mates dad is twofold:

1. Survivorship bias. Many of his father's stock picking contemporaries (probably the majority) will have lost money.

2. I can't emulate his "Rich Dad" starting point.

xD

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Inoperational Bumblebee
12 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Sorry for slightly off-topic question but.. I find it difficult to drip feed at a typical £10 per transaction + 0.5% stamp duty (or 1%FX fees) (AJ Bell as an example but it seems to be similar to many others).

The "cheapest" way I can see to do lots of small dealings appears to be outside ISA wrapper, with something like Interactive Brokers

https://the-international-investor.com/comparison-tables/uk-international-stockbrokers

Obviously I'd lose out on dividend tax advantage but I assume it's not going to be a massive deal as some of these stocks are clearly a bit of a gamble.  Anything else I should worry about?

Thanks

 

1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Also something worth noting is you can use your brokers regular investment function for single trades. Just set it up then cancel it after the trade. I do this for a couple of etf's each quarter so is only costing me £4 over the year.

I was going to say this - if it's LSE listed then just use AJ Bell's Regular Investment option at £1.50 a go. Sometimes something isn't available, so just ask them to add it. They put IBTL on when I asked.
Unfortunately this won't be available for those listings on stock markets outside the UK

The cheapo options like Freetrade or DEGIRO don't have the option of the ISA wrapper, which precludes using them as far as I'm concerned.
FWIW, Revolut are bringing commission-free trading soon too.

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I bought some Stagecoach this morning at £1.27.Had to dig a bit,but saw that depreciation had gone under 1.00 times and that it would be staying below 1.2 times going forward (about 1.37 at the moment).Those are the turns i want in these sort of companies as the extra falls straight to free cash flow and thats before any price increases.I expect the divi cut was due to having to look like a wounded animal after the East Coast failing.(mostly Network Rails fault of course) and the 6% looks sustainable (and growable) from here.So should be past peak investment in new buses/tech etc.Not a big holding,but an interest.

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sancho panza
42 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

We have different strategies. I would tend not to buy "risky" shares. I'm buying and holding stuff I think will return long term value. Obviously there's always some risk.

I have tried more "high risk" strategies in the past. And suffice it to say, I was somewhat less successful than either yourself, your friend, or his father.

xD

These days I don't buy "stock picker" managed funds either. I buy index funds. The fee on these are very low, as the management of them is very easy.

The trouble I see with the example of your mates dad is twofold:

1. Survivorship bias. Many of his father's stuck picking contemporaries (probably the majority) will have lost money.

2. I can't emulate his "Rich Dad" starting point.

xD

The other problem with stock picker funds is that they're managed by people who aren't very good stock pickers.

Faced with a choice,I'd opt for and index ETF over the 'stock pickers'.

Buy and hold is THE strategy for long term financial security and I say that from bitter experience.

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

We can't be far off now, MSCI World now below 50/100/200 daily averages, 10-2 spread almost <30bps (lowest since Aug 07), dollar about to turn lower I reckon (DB spot on about 95/96 as a turning point), if anything to try and mitigate against a stock crash, starting in squeezed $ emerging markets then contagion to US. May see one more hike and done.

Possibly the best 2 line summation of the threats to global economic stability that I've read in a while Barnesy.

People are underplaying the $ risk in EM's where people have borrowed in $.It won't take much to mess with equilibrium.

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3 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Unless your allocating 10s of 1000s to goldies you're not going to be able to diversify enough buying individual miners without getting crucified by fees. Remember its not just your normal dealing fee, but FX fee as well. Realistically you'd not want to be buying less than £2000 a time in forign shares or the fees just eat too much in % terms.

I hold GDX & GDXJ as the bulk of my allocation in this area as its not large enough to allocate to individual shares, I'd end up with 4-5 miners with the risks associated, I feel far more comfortable with the spread the ETFs give me and the management fee is offset by the trading costs. I hold a couple of miners outside as more of a "huge gainz" play with money I'd not cry too much over if they went to nothing.

I guess it depends on the relative gains.

If you bought an ETF which rose 3-fold with 0.5% trading costs each end, your gain would be (0.995 * 3) * 0.995 = 2.97

If you bought a bunch of individual miners which rose 4-fold with 10% trading costs each end, your gain would be (0.9 * 4) * 0.9 = 3.24

The key question is whether several individual stocks will collectively outperform an ETF (that probably contains similar stocks).

I don't know the answer to that part.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

People are underplaying the $ risk in EM's where people have borrowed in $.It won't take much to mess with equilibrium.

Its already playing havoc in various countries, China for example is encouraging companies to use their bonds raised abroad to pay back the $ Debt.  Its too late for that I think, the damage has been done.

The US is about to suck the life out of the rest of the world to keep the American dream alive.

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22 minutes ago, stoobs said:

I guess it depends on the relative gains.

If you bought an ETF which rose 3-fold with 0.5% trading costs each end, your gain would be (0.995 * 3) * 0.995 = 2.97

If you bought a bunch of individual miners which rose 4-fold with 10% trading costs each end, your gain would be (0.9 * 4) * 0.9 = 3.24

The key question is whether several individual stocks will collectively outperform an ETF (that probably contains similar stocks).

I don't know the answer to that part.

With a sector like the miners I feel better having the spread of the ETFs as opposed to the individual miners. Sure it means I'm guaranteed to be holding some dogs, but also means I'll be holding some winners too. 

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1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Its already playing havoc in various countries, China for example is encouraging companies to use their bonds raised abroad to pay back the $ Debt.  Its too late for that I think, the damage has been done.

The US is about to suck the life out of the rest of the world to keep the American dream alive.

Until it comes back to bite them on the ass of course, by the time they realise the deflationary leveraged bust will be in full swing. 

Screenshot_20180628-141510_Twitter.jpg

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Agent ZigZag
6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I bought some Stagecoach this morning at £1.27.Had to dig a bit,but saw that depreciation had gone under 1.00 times and that it would be staying below 1.2 times going forward (about 1.37 at the moment).Those are the turns i want in these sort of companies as the extra falls straight to free cash flow and thats before any price increases.I expect the divi cut was due to having to look like a wounded animal after the East Coast failing.(mostly Network Rails fault of course) and the 6% looks sustainable (and growable) from here.So should be past peak investment in new buses/tech etc.Not a big holding,but an interest.

Looks like you may have bought in just at the low on this one, which if it is, hats off for excellent timing.

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Until it comes back to bite them on the ass of course, by the time they realise the deflationary leveraged bust will be in full swing.  

America is big enough to not really have to trade with anyone else, North American population is just shy of 600m people with the highest average disposable income on the planet.  They will take some pain, but it will be nothing compared to China/EU.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

1/ The other problem with stock picker funds is that they're managed by people who aren't very good stock pickers.

2/ Buy and hold is THE strategy for long term financial security and I say that from bitter experience.

1/ Indeed!

2/ YEAP, my mates father NEVER sold, he just loved seeing his divi cheques poping through the letterbox! For myself this would of been (hold long term) profitable - even with some of the stocks i sold at profit that later went bust, however its a bloody shit feeling when you sell a stock AND the very next day it ROCKETS to the bloody MOON from then on! :o

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

With a sector like the miners I feel better having the spread of the ETFs as opposed to the individual miners. Sure it means I'm guaranteed to be holding some dogs, but also means I'll be holding some winners too. 

At the mo ALL my HL stocks are DOGS! xD

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leonardratso

sibayne is trying though, up 6 % today, just another 12 and it will be like it never happened.

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5 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

1/ Indeed!

2/ YEAP, my mates father NEVER sold, he just loved seeing his divi cheques poping through the letterbox! For myself this would of been (hold long term) profitable - even with some of the stocks i sold at profit that later went bust, however its a bloody shit feeling when you sell a stock AND the very next day it ROCKETS to the bloody MOON from then on! :o

yes and lloyds had to get rid of some holders of share dealing acounts,i got moved to halifax not been able to get on it since

5 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

1/ Indeed!

2/ YEAP, my mates father NEVER sold, he just loved seeing his divi cheques poping through the letterbox! For myself this would of been (hold long term) profitable - even with some of the stocks i sold at profit that later went bust, however its a bloody shit feeling when you sell a stock AND the very next day it ROCKETS to the bloody MOON from then on! :o

the aim market is carector building

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Bobthebuilder
9 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Also something worth noting is you can use your brokers regular investment function for single trades. Just set it up then cancel it after the trade. I do this for a couple of etf's each quarter so is only costing me £4 over the year.

Nice work.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

not so much when it tanks to the floor. Like northern rooooooock

i had NR & A&L ...(paper certs) FREE from carpet-bagging !

THEY were the days :Old: I wonder if DB was into carpet-bagging?

Anyway i was abroad long term when this happened - AL were up to £14 ...now i got some crappy santander worth JACK-SHIT!

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leonardratso

i remember getting free halifax shares from carpet bagging, flogged them immediately, think i got £1500 or so, they were £8-9 each at the time i think, they never got back that high ever again.

Just like me.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

@leonardratsoThe mate i mentioned b4, he lives in Thailand has done for 30 years, he actully came over to london for 1 month using a family member address went around all the building societys and opned share acc's with £100 ...when they started to demutualise, he made a KILLING!

His best hual was birmingham midshires for £100 investment he pulled out just over £5K!!!

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leonardratso
2 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@leonardratsoThe mate i mentioned b4, he lives in Thailand has done for 30 years, he actully came over to london for 1 month using a family member address went around all the building societys and opned share acc's with £100 ...when they started to demutualise, he made a KILLING!

His best hual was birmingham midshires for £100 investment he pulled out just over £5K!!!

good lad, hope he spent it all on whores and booze.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

good lad, hope he spent it all on whores and booze.

YES he did!xDxDxD

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I bought some Stagecoach this morning at £1.27.Had to dig a bit,but saw that depreciation had gone under 1.00 times and that it would be staying below 1.2 times going forward (about 1.37 at the moment).Those are the turns i want in these sort of companies as the extra falls straight to free cash flow and thats before any price increases.I expect the divi cut was due to having to look like a wounded animal after the East Coast failing.(mostly Network Rails fault of course) and the 6% looks sustainable (and growable) from here.So should be past peak investment in new buses/tech etc.Not a big holding,but an interest.

I bought Stagecoach back in the day, @66p paper cert and trebled my money, anyway thats probably why i dont want to buy them YET...waiting for them to go under a quid in the forth coming crash, HOWEVER i douth if will happen so DB, i expect they will ROCKET from here on now ...COS I ain't bought them! xD

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21 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@leonardratsoThe mate i mentioned b4, he lives in Thailand has done for 30 years, he actully came over to london for 1 month using a family member address went around all the building societys and opned share acc's with £100 ...when they started to demutualise, he made a KILLING!

His best hual was birmingham midshires for £100 investment he pulled out just over £5K!!!

my dad did the same and when bt or whatever it was was sold off he applyed for shares in everyones name.

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MCSI seems to be the one to watch at the moment. Anybody have any anecdotals of what it's like doing business with Chinese/EM companies at the moment - anything changing out there? 

 

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sleepwello'nights
2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I bought Stagecoach back in the day, @66p paper cert and trebled my money, anyway thats probably why i dont want to buy them YET...waiting for them to go under a quid in the forth coming crash, HOWEVER i douth if will happen so DB, i expect they will ROCKET from here on now ...COS I ain't bought them! xD

Great, as the market makers are watching you they may have taken their eye of me. PM me with what you're buying and selling and I can make some money buying what you sell and selling what you're buying. ;)

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