Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Great, as the market makers are watching you they may have taken their eye of me. PM me with what you're buying and selling and I can make some money buying what you sell and selling what you're buying. 

fantastic - a gartman style antibarometer - could be useful.

[Thorn]

16 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

fantastic - a gartman style antibarometer - could be useful.

Let’s synchronize our watches.

I’m going to get me some Rio Tinto tomorrow. Assets, cash flow, dividends, reflationtastic.

I am going to set a fill or kill order now on the HL app.

Sleepwello’nights maybe train the Gartman antibarometer Mark I on them when they are open at 0830. My order should make the buggers drop like Foxtons.

We might be able to reset it to inflate. Later we could maybe aim it elsewhere and all pile into Debenhams and the AA? 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Countrywide Estate Agents has plummeted another 18% since Tuesday intra day low 39p!

Wonder whats in for em today, MASSIVE fall or short sellers covering and a dead cat bounce Haha!

 Some fall for a stock of near on 7 quid!...slowly but SURELY we are getting to the TIPPING POINT!

[DurhamBorn]

14 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Looks like you may have bought in just at the low on this one, which if it is, hats off for excellent timing.

Very out of favour the transports at the moment and of course all the political rubbish about train companies makes for very negative sentiment.They could keep drifting down.On these il keep a 12% buy staircase so would get more if they hot £1.11.I  owned Arriva a long time ago and made 500% on it.The key in the past has been to buy when the investment cycle in the buses has topped out as thats when the debt begins to fall,and if there are price increases as well there is a lot more cash.First part looks to be in,now it just needs price increases above the cost of running the bus.Fuel should be locked in for three of four years ahead.For now it might look like there is nothing going to improve so them and the sector might drift.This stage of the cycle might see some corporate action as well.

[Band]

Was looking to buy £1500 of Sibanye, but can get it on the  LSE:0MC2 or NYSE:SBGL with my AJBell account, does it make any difference?

[Barnsey]

Feeling quite happy with starting to buy Silver via Bullion vault, just realised though how much of a headache calculating CGT is going to be if I average in over time, and things go the way we expect of course.

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Feeling quite happy with starting to buy Silver via Bullion vault, just realised though how much of a headache calculating CGT is going to be if I average in over time, and things go the way we expect of course.

Total out - total in = profit.

 

Sorted  That's how I calculated my crypto gains for this year's assessment.

[MvR]

Been chatting to my investor friend again.  He mentioned this guy as a someone worth listening to when it comes to precious ( and non precious ) metals.  He runs some funds too, which may be available depending on your broker.

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Total out - total in = profit.

 

Sorted  That's how I calculated my crypto gains for this year's assessment.

So if I averaged in by various sporaddic amounts let's say over the next 5 years, and if silver went to the moon, would they just calculate the CGT based on the average of everything paid in or would they want to know what was bought each year? I fear I'm over thinking this somewhat.

[Eventually Right]

6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

So if I averaged in by various sporaddic amounts let's say over the next 5 years, and if silver went to the moon, would they just calculate the CGT based on the average of everything paid in or would they want to know what was bought each year? I fear I'm over thinking this somewhat.

If you buy UK coins (Britannia’s) are they not exempt from CGT?

(obviously UK govt could change the rules)

[Barnsey]

This is silver bar storage, but yes the coins are CGT free, but much more expensive, although if silver does rocket maybe makes sense to do both from a tax perspective. 

[kibuc]

24 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

So if I averaged in by various sporaddic amounts let's say over the next 5 years, and if silver went to the moon, would they just calculate the CGT based on the average of everything paid in or would they want to know what was bought each year? I fear I'm over thinking this somewhat.

The HMRC might be interested in every individual purchase, but if you sell everything in the same tax year, regardless of when you bought it, then the simple money out - money in will be equal to the sum of all partial profits or losses on individual purchases.

Let's say you bought:

10 ounces for 1k/ounce in 2015

10 ounces for 5k/ounce in 2016

10 ounces for 250/onunce in 2017

And then sold everything for 4k/ounce in 2018.

In total, you paid 62.5k and sold for 120k for a healthy 57.5k profit.

Looking at individual transactions, you maid 40k-10k=30k on the first one, lost 10k on thse second one and made 37.5k on the third, for the total profit of 57.5k.

The math checks out just as well if you sell for various prices across a single tax year.

When doing self-assessment online, you're asked to put details of every individual transaction, but personally I didn't bother with it in regard to crypto wins or silver losses, as I knew the numbers did check out when using a simple total out - total in calculation.
 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

London house price growth at nine-year low amid Edinburgh and Manchester spurt

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-house-price-growth-nine-230121393.html

LOVE this comment so i've posted it here!

OK 40% of London boroughs reporting a drop. 4% fall in price in Londonistan. The optimistic picture using some kind of magical knowledge only available to the Gruaniad and Hometrack is that Birmingham, Manchester etc. will now catch up with London, as Londongrad stagnates. This is because of something that once happened in 2002-2005.

The reality is a COLLAPSE in house prices is on the cards. COLLAPSE not a equalisation across the country. There are houses in London that have seen drops of half a million to a million, we're already talking 20% drops.

Those kinds of drops are HUGE 20% and more, not "your 4% drop reported above when taking into account of inflation etc" fake news. This article is trying to paint a overly optimistic picture. Look at the share prices of Foxtons and Countrywide - COLLAPSE. There is no "SPURT" there is a bit of a "SPLUTTER" up north from a very low level to another very low level.

 

WHO THE HECK WOULD BUY A HOUSE IN THIS CLIMATE? ...Oh I know HTB sheeple!

[Band]

9 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

London house price growth at nine-year low amid Edinburgh and Manchester spurt

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-house-price-growth-nine-230121393.html

 LOVE this comment so i've posted it here!

OK 40% of London boroughs reporting a drop. 4% fall in price in Londonistan. The optimistic picture using some kind of magical knowledge only available to the Gruaniad and Hometrack is that Birmingham, Manchester etc. will now catch up with London, as Londongrad stagnates. This is because of something that once happened in 2002-2005.

The reality is a COLLAPSE in house prices is on the cards. COLLAPSE not a equalisation across the country. There are houses in London that have seen drops of half a million to a million, we're already talking 20% drops.

Those kinds of drops are HUGE 20% and more, not "your 4% drop reported above when taking into account of inflation etc" fake news. This article is trying to paint a overly optimistic picture. Look at the share prices of Foxtons and Countrywide - COLLAPSE. There is no "SPURT" there is a bit of a "SPLUTTER" up north from a very low level to another very low level.

 

WHO THE HECK WOULD BUY A HOUSE IN THIS CLIMATE? ...Oh I know HTB sheeple!

Is that you CONW? yet still i am priced out, despite hearing crap like this for years now... well priced out on the basis that thinking £220k should afford me a 90m2 house 100 miles from London.

[No Duff (troll)]

Gold daily in USD looking interesting:

Triangle.  At long term support 2.  Negative technicals may turn.  Similar for GBP prices.  Similar on monthly.

Similar for silver.

Could continue their falls though - DYOR.

[leonardratso]

Just now, Banned by HPC said:

Is that you CONW? yet still i am priced out, despite hearing crap like this for years now... well priced out on the basis that thinking £220k should afford me a 90m2 house 100 miles from London.

yes, theres a long way to go and i doubt it will be quick, its like the anti-shareprice graph:

shares: stairs up, lift down

houseprices: lift up, stairs down.

Hang on in there, a coupla years doing what your doing wont kill you, youve got this far and still live.

 

[Band]

Just now, leonardratso said:

Hang on in there, a coupla years doing what your doing wont kill you, youve got this far and still live.

 

You have no fucken idea

[leonardratso]

Just now, Banned by HPC said:

You have no fucken idea

i think i probably do.

[BearyBear]

43 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

London house price growth at nine-year low amid Edinburgh and Manchester spurt

Not sure about Manchester but Edinburgh is softening. Definitely less buyers than a few months back!

[JoeDavola]

Belfast house prices have gone mental - especially in the few parts that are deemed to be 'middle class'. Prices going up faster than any worker could hope to save.

In a country with no functioning local government, everyone seems loaded all of a sudden. It looks like it's getting to the point where the vast majority of people who work in Belfast couldn't afford to buy a family home there now without inheriting 100K+ - same as it's been in other UK cities for a while I guess.

I also get the impression from my peers that everyone is borrowing to the hilt - that when someone gets a payrise they immediately find a new 'thing' to spend that money on (PCP car, bigger home, home renovations/decorating). I don't think anyone saves a penny, in fact I think most marriages would fall apart at the mere suggestion

Paycheque to paycheque living, with lots of debt and cheap credit.

[A_P]

45 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Belfast house prices have gone mental - especially in the few parts that are deemed to be 'middle class'. Prices going up faster than any worker could hope to save.

In a country with no functioning local government, everyone seems loaded all of a sudden. It looks like it's getting to the point where the vast majority of people who work in Belfast couldn't afford to buy a family home there now without inheriting 100K+ - same as it's been in other UK cities for a while I guess.

I also get the impression from my peers that everyone is borrowing to the hilt - that when someone gets a payrise they immediately find a new 'thing' to spend that money on (PCP car, bigger home, home renovations/decorating). I don't think anyone saves a penny, in fact I think most marriages would fall apart at the mere suggestion

Paycheque to paycheque living, with lots of debt and cheap credit.

This is a bit disappointing to read as we're planning on going over to NI as part of our FIRE plan and to be closer to my mum. I know when my cousin bought he used some kind of scheme (similar to HTB) to buy their house, which wasn't a new build and susprised we there was such as scheme. Do you think it's props, outsiders or a bit of both driving this? When I was last over there at Christmas (will be back in August) I was really surprised at the amount of house building that was going on.

In regards to the bold bit, going by my family I can confirm this. Everyone is driving brand new cars, having the holiday and trying to live life like their professional footballs going up to the Galgorm etc.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

This is a bit disappointing to read as we're planning on going over to NI as part of our FIRE plan and to be closer to my mum. I know when my cousin bought he used some kind of scheme (similar to HTB) to buy their house, which wasn't a new build and susprised we there was such as scheme. Do you think it's props, outsiders or a bit of both driving this? When I was last over there at Christmas (will be back in August) I was really surprised at the amount of house building that was going on.

Cheaper houses can be had outside of Belfast. I have no idea what's driving it - I think it's maybe cheap credit with the addition of the effects of multi-generational wealth being aggregated and going straight into houses in the 'good' areas.

NI's still much cheaper than South of England/Londonistan of course!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, Banned by HPC said:

Is that you CONW? yet still i am priced out, despite hearing crap like this for years now... well priced out on the basis that thinking £220k should afford me a 90m2 house 100 miles from London.

As i said at ToS ...NO I'm NOT ...I'm his cousin vinny!

[A_P]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

Cheaper houses can be had outside of Belfast. I have no idea what's driving it - I think it's maybe cheap credit with the addition of the effects of multi-generational wealth being aggregated and going straight into houses in the 'good' areas.

NI's still much cheaper than South of England/Londonistan of course!

We are planning on taking a look at a few areas/houses while we were over. Will be interesting to see how much it's moved since we were last over. Perhaps this last rush into the houses/cheap credit is a sign it's all about to go off again.

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

The HMRC might be interested in every individual purchase, but if you sell everything in the same tax year, regardless of when you bought it, then the simple money out - money in will be equal to the sum of all partial profits or losses on individual purchases.

Let's say you bought:

10 ounces for 1k/ounce in 2015

10 ounces for 5k/ounce in 2016

10 ounces for 250/onunce in 2017

And then sold everything for 4k/ounce in 2018.

In total, you paid 62.5k and sold for 120k for a healthy 57.5k profit.

Looking at individual transactions, you maid 40k-10k=30k on the first one, lost 10k on thse second one and made 37.5k on the third, for the total profit of 57.5k.

The math checks out just as well if you sell for various prices across a single tax year.

When doing self-assessment online, you're asked to put details of every individual transaction, but personally I didn't bother with it in regard to crypto wins or silver losses, as I knew the numbers did check out when using a simple total out - total in calculation.
 

Very helpful thanks kibuc!