Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

A bit of anecdotal evidence of what's going on in my neck of woods.

I work for a purely-online fashion retailer. Last year our CEO spoke about plans for future growth, including hiring c.a. 1200 people throughout 2018 which made me chuckle internally. It's July 2018 and, while there have been some recruitment going on, mostly we are going through a period of stealth reductions - all our contractors are being let go successively as their contracts run out without replacement, and there's more than a few of them, in IT in particular. Our weekly newsletter also tells a story of consecutive misses on the sales & revenue forecast, although the YoY numbers show an impressive growth as we cannibalize high-street retailers and expand globally. UK, however, lags behind other areas.

In other news, my wife runs a private psychotherapy practice and we were forced to cut her rates by 25% recently to keep her calendar full. It feels like people are starting to feel the pinch as their disposable income shrinks.

Always good to hear other's anecdotal evidence as we all live in our little bubbles, I can reciprocate by letting you know that a work colleague I chatted to yesterday had lent £20k to his daughter to buy a flat in Uxbridge, she's now put on the market for £349k to make a quick buck I guess and repay her dad, apparently the only offer they've had in 8 weeks of it being listed was for £299k, which the estate agent suggested they accepted. They didn't of course, and now he reckons he'll never see that £20k ever again, all because of Brexit in his eyes 

53 minutes ago, No Duff said:

I use Harry Brown's Permenant Portfolio allocation for my pensions (my floor) as I'm getting close to retirement and capital preservation is also key given the macro picture, 100% equity for my HYP upside funds and 100% of everything for my trading account.

I have too much cash in my Floor funds (60% versus 25%) but am averaging into equities and long term bonds over 1 to 2 years.  I already have 25% precious metals in my Floor.  Note cash here includes short term bonds and other low to zero capital risk instruments (e.g. NS&I bonds).

I have about 30% cash in my Upside funds which I'm happy with, picking off bargains as they arise.  Some pruning of my existing holdings ongoing for sectors and counterparty risk.

I have 100% cash in my Trading funds 'cause I'm on hols and the weather's been nice!

Please google the above terms for more detail (e.g. Monevator).

I do favour Harry Brown's philosophy and simplicity, especially if you have limited time or understanding of the markets.

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

A bit of anecdotal evidence of what's going on in my neck of woods.

I work for a purely-online fashion retailer. Last year our CEO spoke about plans for future growth, including hiring c.a. 1200 people throughout 2018 which made me chuckle internally. It's July 2018 and, while there have been some recruitment going on, mostly we are going through a period of stealth reductions - all our contractors are being let go successively as their contracts run out without replacement, and there's more than a few of them, in IT in particular. Our weekly newsletter also tells a story of consecutive misses on the sales & revenue forecast, although the YoY numbers show an impressive growth as we cannibalize high-street retailers and expand globally. UK, however, lags behind other areas.

In other news, my wife runs a private psychotherapy practice and we were forced to cut her rates by 25% recently to keep her calendar full. It feels like people are starting to feel the pinch as their disposable income shrinks.

Anecdotals it is then - a couple of weekends ago I was waiting for a train at Wokingham and got chatting with lady on platform. She was working behind bar and waitressing at Ascot Week and saying she does it every year loads of fun but very hard work due to the huge crowds. This year though numbers down almost by half as they had hiked ticket prices a lot. 

Sounds like Ascot feeling the pinch due to input costs and raise prices to maintain margin... Only to find customers probably couldn't really afford original prices and give up completely when faced with price rise. 

It's not like going to ascot is one of life's necessities unless you're the queen or similar rich. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

@DurhamBorn

%age on short is normally a poor indicator for future performance.M&S hit a record the other day and the stock has gone up £0.20 since.

The shorts got caned on Morrions and Tesco as well.

Chart isn't screaming cheap just yet...interesting comments with a similar view to you at the bottom.

 

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/07/short-sellers-betting-newriver-quadruple-confidence-retail-remains-low/

'Retail property giant NewRiver has seen short sellers ramp up their bets against it in recent months, suggesting a share price drop could be imminent.

Major investment funds including Man GLG, Soros Fund Management, CZ Capital, Old Mutual Global Investors and Toscafund Asset Management have all taken significant short positions against the retail estate investment trust.

Since last summer the percentage of NewRiver’s stock out on loan, which means it is being shorted by sellers, has more quadrupled from two per cent to eight per cent, according to data from IHS Markit.

This is in response to growing turmoil in the retail sector, which has seen many property owners lose out thanks to numerous high-profile retailers entering into administration or a CVA process, which allows them to reduce rents significantly and vacate other loss-making stores completely.

Intu has also seen its stock heavily shorted recently, with 6.8 per cent of its stock now out on loan.

Since the news that Intu’s tie-up with Hammerson had been abandoned, the percentage of Hammerson’s stock being shorted dropped from four per cent to nearly zero.

Not all traders are betting against NewRiver though, with Berenberg’s analyst Kai Klose stating: “We think that the defensive profile of NewRiver REIT’s £1.2 billion retail portfolio, with low vacancy rates of three per cent, affordable rents of £12.36/sq ft and a fairly broadly diversified tenant structure, remains attractive.”'

Newriver is in a very tough market.However i rate their management the best in the industry.Their rents are very very low mainly as they bought most of their centres from bankrupt sellers so their entry prices were at low points in the cycle.They have also put about half of their debt into a 3.5% ten year corporate bond,a very shrewd move.There are risks with them of course,a lot of their re-developments include residential and they would suffer if rates went up too quickly.However they have very good relationships with most of the discounters and can usually re-let easily.Cash flows on their type of assets tend to  be based on how cheap the rents/rates are compared to turnover and i think theirs will probably work out very well on that.What iv noticed in their centre in Darlington is that when they get a decent sized unit empty a good retailer from somewhere else in the town moves in.Chances are given they bought that centre for 1/3 of the price it sold for in 2006 their rents are cheaper compared to footfall than most of the other streets.

They also have a 100% un-secured balance sheet.(about 38% LTV).That means they dont have to go through their bankers etc to do a let/sell and asset.Hated sector in a hated economy.I hope they do ok though as fantastic management.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

- Harald Malmgren saying today that he sees a financial market crisis in the eurozone emerging this year or next, Italy to go first. A little obvious but he knows his stuff.

- For the first time since the last recession, US Baa corporate bond premiums have risen above 2% on the upward trend, usually a good indicator of a recession either imminent or commencing within a year.

- UK economy "bouncing back" apparently, so looking like an August hike is actually on the cards and not just rhetoric, especially with this soft brexit direction gaining momentum, I still believe this is our "one and done" hike. Unless of course, like the US, they want to build in some downward movement room for next year.

- And this rather ambitious proposal from the IPPR to freeze UK house prices for five years to prevent another financial crisis:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-latest-freeze-financial-crisis-bank-of-england-ippr-a8439151.html

I have no doubt that this will likely occur AFTER a crash/reset (many believing the current status quo is sustainable, but fact is the bubbles always pop), however the report does allude to the potential for QE to be directed away from speculative assets and into manufacturing growth...

 

 

Couldn't have put it better myself,!!!

[No Duff (troll)]

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I do favour Harry Brown's philosophy and simplicity, especially if you have limited time or understanding of the markets.

Or if you've been in the business several decades, done your backtesting, understand and know how to map risk profiles, etc!

Show us yours then maestro!  Go on, blow our minds!  Actually nah, not a good source.  Eff it.

Someone takes the time to share and respond to a sensible question and at best you use sloppy language and at worse display crass stupidity.

Please put me on ignore.

FFS.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, No Duff said:

Or if you've been in the business several decades, done your backtesting, understand and know how to map risk profiles, etc!

Show us yours then maestro!  Go on, blow our minds!  Actually nah, not a good source.  Eff it.

Someone takes the time to share and respond to a sensible question and at best you use sloppy language and at worse display crass stupidity.

Please put me on ignore.

FFS.

Jesus where the hell did that come from, I didn't mean to touch a nerve/insult your investment strategy, it's just many examples of this method for the wider public usually involve using just 4 ETF funds, rebalance when any of them hit 35/15%. Obviously your investments are much more thoughtful and complex than this, didn't mean it as a personal jab.

[leonardratso]

it was all personal to me. (bryan mills)

[Thorn]

Message for Viceroy - how do you read what is happening in the DOW based on M Armstrong work?

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, No Duff said:

Or if you've been in the business several decades, done your backtesting, understand and know how to map risk profiles, etc!

Show us yours then maestro!  Go on, blow our minds!  Actually nah, not a good source.  Eff it.

Someone takes the time to share and respond to a sensible question and at best you use sloppy language and at worse display crass stupidity.

Please put me on ignore.

FFS.

I took Barnsey's comment as agreeing with you and another vote for Harry Brown, not as an insult. Although "especially if you have limited time or understanding of the markets" does have a "you" in there it might have been meant for people in general not you personally. 

[Agent ZigZag]

9 hours ago, No Duff said:

I use Harry Brown's Permenant Portfolio allocation for my pensions (my floor) as I'm getting close to retirement and capital preservation is also key given the macro picture, 100% equity for my HYP upside funds, and 100% of everything and anything for my trading account.

I have too much cash in my Floor funds (60% versus 25%) but am averaging into equities and long term bonds over 1 to 2 years.  I already have 25% precious metals in my Floor.  Note cash here includes short term bonds and other low to zero capital risk instruments (e.g. NS&I bonds).

I have about 30% cash in my Upside funds which I'm happy with, picking off bargains as they arise.  Some pruning of my existing holdings ongoing for sectors and counterparty risk.

I have 100% cash in my Trading funds 'cause I'm on hols and the weather's been nice!

Please google the above terms for more detail (e.g. Monevator).

Thank you for the link

 

Forgive me if I ask another question, but do you have a discipline rule for taking profits and if so what percentage growth on a stock do you look for to then rebalance your portfolio. All a fast learning curve for me as I view myself an investor not a trader instead a buy and hold.,but there are times one needs to sell.

[No Duff (troll)]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Jesus where the hell did that come from, I didn't mean to touch a nerve/insult your investment strategy, it's just many examples of this method for the wider public usually involve using just 4 ETF funds, rebalance when any of them hit 35/15%. Obviously your investments are much more thoughtful and complex than this, didn't mean it as a personal jab.

Noted.  Lets focus on the productive question asked by Agent ZigZag.

[No Duff (troll)]

41 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Thank you for the link

 

Forgive me if I ask another question, but do you have a discipline rule for taking profits and if so what percentage growth on a stock do you look for to then rebalance your portfolio. All a fast learning curve for me as I view myself an investor not a trader instead a buy and hold.,but there are times one needs to sell.

TBH no. 

My floor and upside funds are invested for the long term.  The floor to maintain purchasing power to fund basic retirement expenses (capital protection) and the upside further along the risk curve to generate income to fund any projected deficit in the floor fund and, upon retirement, to provide additional income for a "nicer" retirement (income generation).

In that context, taking profits is not relevant and I'm slow to realise losses (where I then use subjective criteria).  I do however ensure no one holding exceeds 5% of the fund value and also hold ETFs from a number of providers to further mitigate risk.  Same for the various accounts themselves that make up the two funds.  The Permenant Portfolio underlying the floor fund requires annual rebalancing to the 25% asset class allocations so that also clears out profits and losses.

Your question is more relevant for my trading fund.  I use technicals to time entries and exits so no need for any other profit taking rule save the money management rule that no trade to exceed 2% of the trading fund value.  Note, I'm too old and maybe wise to day trade so go for trades of typically a few weeks so things are more gentlemanly!

Just me, many ways to approach this, DYOR, etc.  Main thing is to ensure profit and loss taking is part of an overall trading strategy, including money management, etc.

Best thing I ever did trading wise was to sit down with pad, pen and coin and work out what percentage trade sizes would keep me relatively safely in the game.

 

[Viceroy]

8 hours ago, Thorn said:

Message for Viceroy - how do you read what is happening in the DOW based on M Armstrong work?

Hi Thorn - most recent is that the DOW is consolidating, which could extend into 2020.

Nothing has changed long-term, but the volatility is increasing sharply and 2018 is a Panic Cycle Year.  It appears that we are extending the cycle so we do not expect this target we had in the 25,000-28,000 level to remain as the major high. This will clearly undermine people's confidence and it may send more capital into the waiting arms of government hawking their bonds. 

Keep in mind 2018 is a PANIC CYCLE year. A Panic cycle means the market can capitulate, or swing up and down testing previous highs/lows and that warns that while it may look dark and grim right now, play it by the reversal numbers for this thing can then swing down and turn violently back up after creating a BEAR TRAP.

Keep in mind that we have some resistance in this 25000-28000 zone and after that it jumps to 32990.

 

From any major high, his model issues Bearish Reversal numbers - how quickly the DOW falls and hits those numbers tells you how deep and protracted any bear market will be - hitting them within 3 months of the all time high would be very bearish.

Since the January '18 high 7 months ago the DOW has not hit (elected) any major Monthly Bearish reversals...yet.

(30Yr UST Bonds hit 2 Bearish reversals within 3 months from its July 2016 high signalling a severe bear market trend in action ever since). 

 

Electing a Major Monthly Bearish reversal means a bull market changes trend into a bear market.  That bear market reverses into a bull market when it elects a Major Monthly BULLISH reversal which would have been generated from the low. Obviously it can take months/years for that reversal to be elected, with lots of short-term rallies and drops interim.

 

For example: From GOLD's low in Dec 2015, the model generated a Major Monthly Bullish Reversal at 1362.50.  Gold has to close on the last trading day of a month above that number to confirm a Bull market is now on - so far it’s failed to do so. 

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/is-the-vertical-market-over-or-just-beginning/

We have not declined to test the Monthly Bearish and we would have to close BELOW 21600 on the Dow on a Monthly Basis (i.e. last day of the trading month) to imply a short-term correction will be sustained.

 

The DOW has climbed nearly 10,000 points since 2016. MA did forecast at the 2016 WEC that the DOW would enter a Phase Transition and rise for the next 2 years into 2018 as long as it elected the Monthly Bullish 18,625 which it did at the end of November 2016 : https://vimeo.com/198896912 - (listen at 2 hours+50mins & 3 hours+25mins).  

He does forecast 40,000+ top for DOW not before 2020, but when exactly is still not clear.  He says watch the election of reversals to guide you.

[leonardratso]

got a corp action from sibayne;

 

SIBANYE GOLD LIMITED ADRS - Important Information

 

Class Action Litigation.

Important Information & Other Key Dates:

A Class Action lawsuit has been filed against Sibanye Gold Limited (Sibanye) in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, on behalf of a class consisting of investors who purchased or otherwise acquired Sibanye securities on the open market between 7th April 2017 and 26th June 2018 inclusive (the Class Period). The Complaint alleges that Sibanye made false and/or misleading statements.

Regrettably we are unable to make a claim on your behalf as claims are required to be made by the underlying beneficial holder of the eligible security on which the claim is being made.

All claims must be supported by proof of evidence in the form of contract notes and/or statements of valuation. Should you require duplicate contract notes or statements of valuation these can be obtained online. If you do not have online access, please contact our call centre in order to obtain the relevant duplicate contract note or statement of valuation.

For information on how to join the Class Action, please visit http://faruqilaw.com/SBGL, or alternatively you can write to Richard Gonnello at [email protected] or call toll free at 877-247-4292.

 

Looks like a clawback attempt with all the bad news for  the co over last year.

[Game_of_Homes]

23 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Always good to hear other's anecdotal evidence as we all live in our little bubbles, I can reciprocate by letting you know that a work colleague I chatted to yesterday had lent £20k to his daughter to buy a flat in Uxbridge, she's now put on the market for £349k to make a quick buck I guess and repay her dad, apparently the only offer they've had in 8 weeks of it being listed was for £299k, which the estate agent suggested they accepted. They didn't of course, and now he reckons he'll never see that £20k ever again, all because of Brexit in his eyes 

I do favour Harry Brown's philosophy and simplicity, especially if you have limited time or understanding of the markets.

I wonder how much s/he bought it for and when?

[Barnsey]

29 minutes ago, Game_of_Homes said:

I wonder how much s/he bought it for and when?

I didn't want to pry too much as he was really going off on one, but it sounded like a relatively recent buy so probably at peak in 2015/16 for somewhere between the two figures, he emphasised there was no way she could afford to accept an offer that "low", might seem like a very bad decision in hindsight.

In other news, back on the US trucking topic, freight truck transportation costs rose 1.3% last month, the highest since Jul 2009. Bloomberg expanding on this topic:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-11/soaring-cost-of-trucking-is-threatening-to-stoke-u-s-inflation

Quote

The tightest trucking market in years is testing the limits of an otherwise well-conditioned U.S. economic expansion. It’s also tinder for accelerating inflation should the capacity constraints spark moves by companies to pass on those higher delivery costs.

A shortage of drivers, new regulations and solid demand are driving up rates charged by trucking companies to haul loads over the country’s more than 46,000 miles of interstate highways. Combined with higher materials prices, partly due to the Trump administration’s tariffs, rising transportation costs are putting pressure on goods producers.

 

“Demand is exceeding capacity in most modes of transportation by a significant amount,” Donald Broughton, managing partner of Broughton Capital, wrote in the Cass Freight Index Report for May. “In turn, pricing power has erupted in those modes to levels that continue to spark overall inflationary concerns in the broader economy.”

Gas prices close to $3 on average now, there's no way Powell can hold back from now on, tightening steadily into a recession, the economy is overheating to such an extent it's perversely the only way forward.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I didn't want to pry too much as he was really going off on one, but it sounded like a relatively recent buy so probably at peak in 2015/16 for somewhere between the two figures, he emphasised there was no way she could afford to accept an offer that "low", might seem like a very bad decision in hindsight.

This is crazy that people think they can make a quick buck from property. It's got to cost £5- £10k a move with fees and practicalities. Much better renting for a couple of years if that's all you'll be there for. 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I didn't want to pry too much as he was really going off on one, but it sounded like a relatively recent buy so probably at peak in 2015/16 for somewhere between the two figures, he emphasised there was no way she could afford to accept an offer that "low", might seem like a very bad decision in hindsight.

In other news, back on the US trucking topic, freight truck transportation costs rose 1.3% last month, the highest since Jul 2009. Bloomberg expanding on this topic:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-11/soaring-cost-of-trucking-is-threatening-to-stoke-u-s-inflation

Gas prices close to $3 on average now, there's no way Powell can hold back from now on, tightening steadily into a recession, the economy is overheating to such an extent it's perversely the only way forward.

The solution to our problems lies in allowing risk pricing to normalize,velocity to move up, zombie businesses to fold and vibrant new businesses to take root.Only way to do all that is to leave rates to the market and not the banking classes.

Can't see QE getting the go ahead this time.Powell is 'non neo classically' educated and I think he gets it.

[MrXxx]

On 10/07/2018 at 23:17, No Duff said:

TBH no. 

My floor and upside funds are invested for the long term.  The floor to maintain purchasing power to fund basic retirement expenses (capital protection) and the upside further along the risk curve to generate income to fund any projected deficit in the floor fund and, upon retirement, to provide additional income for a "nicer" retirement (income generation).

In that context, taking profits is not relevant and I'm slow to realise losses (where I then use subjective criteria).  I do however ensure no one holding exceeds 5% of the fund value and also hold ETFs from a number of providers to further mitigate risk.  Same for the various accounts themselves that make up the two funds.  The Permenant Portfolio underlying the floor fund requires annual rebalancing to the 25% asset class allocations so that also clears out profits and losses.

Your question is more relevant for my trading fund.  I use technicals to time entries and exits so no need for any other profit taking rule save the money management rule that no trade to exceed 2% of the trading fund value.  Note, I'm too old and maybe wise to day trade so go for trades of typically a few weeks so things are more gentlemanly!

Just me, many ways to approach this, DYOR, etc.  Main thing is to ensure profit and loss taking is part of an overall trading strategy, including money management, etc.

Best thing I ever did trading wise was to sit down with pad, pen and coin and work out what percentage trade sizes would keep me relatively safely in the game.

 

And if none of this makes any sense to you (no offense intended...just in case ;~) ), then I can recommend this book that I have just read (Lustig, Y. 2016. Saving & investing for retirement. Pearson. ISBN:9781292129297)...not just for the olduns, and now I can understand what you are all talking about...only problem now is that I have to go back and reread all 68 pages of this folder again! :-)

 

[Agent ZigZag]

I was reviewing the global dollar index over a ten year period and the peak and troughs and sideways trading remarkably shadows the prime Central London residential housing market. The recent uptick in the dollar index over the last 3 months could help explain improved residential and commercial activity that was struggling in the first quarter.The dollar appears to be at an inflection point again and at a guess if it turns down to 86 could take 8months. To reach the 2008 levels at 76ish would take a lot longer or require a fast and deep decent to get there. So my question is to Durham Born as to whether he has done any further and more recent macro cross checks in this field as a lot of the stars would now be lining up.

[MrXxx]

On 10/07/2018 at 11:50, sancho panza said:

Read about rehypothecation of financial assets.

One of the great miracles of finance and one of the reasons the UK is a financial centre.I'm not a lawyer but apparently our rules on rehypothecation are ahem....chilled.

Default risk meh!!!

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/peter-morgan/rehypothecation-should-be_b_1251967.html?guccounter=1

And did the coalition government implement the suggested changes?...would you bite off the hand that feeds you?!

[leonardratso]

bellweather DFS off kilter this morning.

[Majorpain]

32 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

bellweather DFS off kilter this morning.

Blaming a heatwave!

Admittedly it is better to point at that than a slowing housing market, tighter credit conditions and a squeeze in household budgets. 

[Barnsey]

Never did I think I'd see the Daily Mail featuring a story at the top of their financial website championing the need for a 30% average fall in house prices rather than "freezing" as suggested the other day by the IPPR, focusing in on the UK house price to earnings ratio. My how the tables have turned vs a couple years ago! Comments aren't too happy about it though 

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5942931/House-prices-need-fall-30-reach-fair-value-not-freeze-5-years.html

Quote

If house prices did take such a tumble, mean reversion theory says they should fall further, as prices tend to overshoot at both ends before returning to the long-term average.

In the last slump after the financial crisis that didn't happen, as the decline was arrested by a lack of forced sellers, thanks to super-low interest rates, money pumped into the system, and heavy pressure on banks and building societies not to repossess those in mortgage arrears.

This was clearly good news for those at risk of losing their homes, which people who suffered in the 1990s crash will tell you can have a long devastating effect.

The cost of avoiding the tough medicine, however, is our problem now, where both nationally and locally homes are expensive compared to average wages.

This has been exacerbated by throwing money at the wrong side of the problem, with schemes such as Help to Buy. Instead of making houses cheaper to build and sell, we have given people more money to buy them.

Additional signs that banks are becoming increasingly careful of what's ahead, got a Lloyds Banking Group amended T&Cs for my credit card today, noticeable changes from September:

- If in persistent debt (or at risk of falling into), we can increase your minimum payment to help reduce your credit card balance (help indeed )

- Notice period of such changes reducing to 30 days

- If you make an additional payment before your direct debit is due, your DD will no longer be reduced

- You can still add another cardholder, but they will no longer be able to give us instructions about your account

[Nicolas Turgeon]

Hi all, another refugee from HPC here! In fact I was a lurker there for many years and had been following @DurhamBorn 's excellent thread on there, and also since it moved here so I could continue expanding my economic education thanks to DurhamBorn and other regular posters. Thank you so much for all your contributions!

Here's an anecdote from the spare parts business I can contribute - over recent months we've seen a decline in parts sales down to a steady low 'plateau'. I'm wondering if this is due to factors like more people leasing new cars and therefore not doing their own repairs. Input costs have of course risen slightly with currency fluctuations but these are mostly absorbed higher up the supply chain. Hopefully in the coming economic downturn people will be more motivated to 'make do and mend' rather than hitch themselves to what is effectively hiring large ticket items with big monthly payments.

I look forward to reading more about the macro economic view - not something I'd ever considered before the thread on the old site started up. Thanks all!