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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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5 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I agree totally. If Powell keeps tightening then I'm sure the US$ will soar. However I think that this is all very reminiscent of 2007/8, and if it is then it won't be long before rates are on their way back south again. O.o

I assume with US interest rates going down at the same time?

The dollar going down yes.I still think 96.5 is a ceiling for the dollar and its going down.94% retail bulls on the dollar,everyone and his dog thinks its going up.86 next stop for me then wel see then if thats the bottom or if the outside chance of 74 is possible.

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sancho panza

Email from IG regarding margin rates getting lifted what I would call significantly.

 

 



Now that the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA’s) new rules on leveraged trading are about to come into force, we wanted to let you know that new minimum margin rates will apply to your account from 28 July 2018. 

Please note that these changes will not apply to professional clients.

New margin rates for retail clients
Please see the table below for details of the changes that will come into effect on 28 July. The new rates will apply to new positions only – any existing positions you hold now, or at the time of the increase, will not be affected.
Asset class Current minimum margin rate Minimum margin rates from 28 July
Major FX – currency pairs containing any two of the following: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF 0.5% 3.33%
Minor FX – all other currency pairs 1% 5%
Major indices – FTSE 100, France 40, Germany 30, EU Stocks 50, Wall Street, US 500, US Tech 100, Japan 225, Australia 200 0.5% 5%
Minor indices – all other indices 1% 10%
Gold 0.7% 5%
Commodities 1.5% 10%
Shares 7.5% 20%
Cryptocurrencies 35% 50%
Other markets 0.25% 20%
You can find out more about all of ESMA’s new rules, along with worked examples, on our website. 

 
 
 
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Castlevania
56 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Email from IG regarding margin rates getting lifted what I would call significantly.

 

 



Now that the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA’s) new rules on leveraged trading are about to come into force, we wanted to let you know that new minimum margin rates will apply to your account from 28 July 2018. 

Please note that these changes will not apply to professional clients.

New margin rates for retail clients
Please see the table below for details of the changes that will come into effect on 28 July. The new rates will apply to new positions only – any existing positions you hold now, or at the time of the increase, will not be affected.
Asset class Current minimum margin rate Minimum margin rates from 28 July
Major FX – currency pairs containing any two of the following: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF 0.5% 3.33%
Minor FX – all other currency pairs 1% 5%
Major indices – FTSE 100, France 40, Germany 30, EU Stocks 50, Wall Street, US 500, US Tech 100, Japan 225, Australia 200 0.5% 5%
Minor indices – all other indices 1% 10%
Gold 0.7% 5%
Commodities 1.5% 10%
Shares 7.5% 20%
Cryptocurrencies 35% 50%
Other markets 0.25% 20%
You can find out more about all of ESMA’s new rules, along with worked examples, on our website. 

 
 
 

You can circumnavigate it by deeming yourself a professional client. Only problem is that you need to tick two out of the three of the following; traded over £10k worth of stock a dozen times over the last year; have €500k of liquid assets; have worked with derivatives for over a year. 

I’d probably add them to the short list. I can’t see the number of clients that they claim to expect to deem themselves professional to materialise. And they make money on trading volume and which the above new rules will massively curtail.

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Negative balance protection

ESMA is introducing a new rule to ensure that retail traders can never lose more than the money available on their account. If a client’s balance does go negative, the provider will be obligated to bring the balance back up to zero – at the provider’s own cost. ESMA's new balance rule will be applied from 28 July, 2018.

@sancho panza  Thats why.  If you massively fuck up they are required to backstop you!

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Anyone seen this before?

https://www.theadvisory.co.uk/propcast/

It's a weather map for UK house prices, still showing a positive outlook (I'd argue their colour scale is a bit misleading) however what's interesting is that it's backed by what seems to be a "cash for property" broker, so I'd imagine their map will be quite honest once panic sets in.

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StrugglingMillennial

I really dont see how anyone could paint a rosy picture for the housing market.

Houses are not selling well at all near me and the number for sale is half of what it was at the start of the year, those that are left are either reduced or they have spent over a year on rightmove.

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4 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

I really dont see how anyone could paint a rosy picture for the housing market.

Houses are not selling well at all near me and the number for sale is half of what it was at the start of the year, those that are left are either reduced or they have spent over a year on rightmove.

Where is near me?

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7 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

I really dont see how anyone could paint a rosy picture for the housing market.

 

If you bought just 4 years ago you'd be sitting on epic gains that could very easily be realised.

Its not rosy for people looking to buy or people looking to trade up.

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20 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

I really dont see how anyone could paint a rosy picture for the housing market.

Houses are not selling well at all near me and the number for sale is half of what it was at the start of the year, those that are left are either reduced or they have spent over a year on rightmove.

From the above website:

How we’re funded

This website is funded by the consultancy fees we earn providing asset management services to members of the public.

We are a small team and so limit client numbers.

Our ‘done for you’ house sale service is only available to struggling (or vulnerable) home sellers.

We work alongside carefully chosen local estate agents and are not here to disrupt the estate agency landscape…

…We are simply here to act as a safe pair of hands to those that think they’ve run out of options.

Please get in touch if you need our help.

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1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

More BAD News For Property ...HOORAY!

Buy one get one FREE ...anyone?

https://moneyweek.com/londons-luxury-new-build-property-are-in-big-trouble?

So the buy one get one fee is really a 10-15% reduction from an insane bubble price, yes those savvy buyers are really taking the builders to the cleaners.

There is no HPC, a relatively small drop in prices in Londons prime areas and over priced new builds is hardly anything to get excited about, unless of course 600k for a 1 bed flat is ones idea of a bargain.

 

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Gordie Lastchance
1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

More BAD News For Property ...HOORAY!

Buy one get one FREE ...anyone?

https://moneyweek.com/londons-luxury-new-build-property-are-in-big-trouble?

I thought the last two paragraphs were telling. Others have mentioned on Dosbods about the MSM narrative changing re property prices, so it's nice to see it continue.

The paragraphs are:

"But the good news is that the wider end of the market is slowing in any case. According to the Office for National Statistics, UK house prices are now rising at their slowest rates since May 2013, and in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms are flat.

Hopefully that will continue. And in the meantime, keep an eye on the crash at the “luxury” end as developers and lenders scramble to save their backsides from the usual boom and bust cycle."

So, "the good news is that the wider end of the market is slowing... hopefully that will continue". Great to read.

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21 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I thought the last two paragraphs were telling. Others have mentioned on Dosbods about the MSM narrative changing re property prices, so it's nice to see it continue.

The paragraphs are:

"But the good news is that the wider end of the market is slowing in any case. According to the Office for National Statistics, UK house prices are now rising at their slowest rates since May 2013, and in “real” (inflation-adjusted) terms are flat.

Hopefully that will continue. And in the meantime, keep an eye on the crash at the “luxury” end as developers and lenders scramble to save their backsides from the usual boom and bust cycle."

So, "the good news is that the wider end of the market is slowing... hopefully that will continue". Great to read.

Moneyweek isn't MSM, they've wrongly made the call a long time ago that the economy was to implode a long time ago. It didn't.

And house prices still rising albeit at a slower pace is bad news, and crap to read! 

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StrugglingMillennial
4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

From the above website:

How we’re funded

This website is funded by the consultancy fees we earn providing asset management services to members of the public.

We are a small team and so limit client numbers.

Our ‘done for you’ house sale service is only available to struggling (or vulnerable) home sellers.

We work alongside carefully chosen local estate agents and are not here to disrupt the estate agency landscape…

…We are simply here to act as a safe pair of hands to those that think they’ve run out of options.

Please get in touch if you need our help.

The peak season is now and the majority of houses go on rightmove regardless of their selling status.

 

 

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14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Email from IG regarding margin rates getting lifted what I would call significantly.

 

 



Now that the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA’s) new rules on leveraged trading are about to come into force, we wanted to let you know that new minimum margin rates will apply to your account from 28 July 2018. 

Please note that these changes will not apply to professional clients.

New margin rates for retail clients
Please see the table below for details of the changes that will come into effect on 28 July. The new rates will apply to new positions only – any existing positions you hold now, or at the time of the increase, will not be affected.
Asset class Current minimum margin rate Minimum margin rates from 28 July
Major FX – currency pairs containing any two of the following: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF 0.5% 3.33%
Minor FX – all other currency pairs 1% 5%
Major indices – FTSE 100, France 40, Germany 30, EU Stocks 50, Wall Street, US 500, US Tech 100, Japan 225, Australia 200 0.5% 5%
Minor indices – all other indices 1% 10%
Gold 0.7% 5%
Commodities 1.5% 10%
Shares 7.5% 20%
Cryptocurrencies 35% 50%
Other markets 0.25% 20%
You can find out more about all of ESMA’s new rules, along with worked examples, on our website. 

 
 
 

This will clean retail out much quicker.20% margin on shares means people long the momentum stocks could see a capital wipe out in a day if they dont have stops.Interesting they have to backstop accounts.Good move that,most you can lose is what you have in account.The companies want to hope their counter party can cough up or they might be looking at huge losses.10% on the main markets is a huge change as well.These companies are going to need bullet proof software.Likely why Playtech have moved into the space.

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17 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

The peak season is now and the majority of houses go on rightmove regardless of their selling status.

 

 

Best i am seeing is houses that would have sold for their current insane asking prices 612 months ago being taken off the market after a month or 2.

Its a Zombie market being as if you have to take a significant cut you then have to find a seller who will do the same, and with the delusions of what ones house is worth in the UK this is a difficult task.

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StrugglingMillennial

Agreed, i find it funny how the talk has come dow to who will give in first sellers or buyers, people just cannot afford to buy unless they are moving.

Which explains the increase in rental properties in my area.

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Chewing Grass
4 minutes ago, Banned said:

Best i am seeing is houses that would have sold for their current insane asking prices 612 months ago being taken off the market after a month or 2.

Its a Zombie market being as if you have to take a significant cut you then have to find a seller who will do the same, and with the delusions of what ones house is worth in the UK this is a difficult task.

Was out and about in High Peak area of Derbyshire yesterday and you wouldn't believe the amount of building going on 2/3/4 bed houses plus flats on pieces of land nobody would have even considered building houses on 10/20/30 years ago. All in towns with Zero new jobs other than building more houses and with appalling transport links that cease to function in winter.

1790980222_Screenshot-2018-7-21GoogleMaps.thumb.jpg.8ef04b88a25e8bd0e48e405c45c5d280.jpg

This photo was taken in 2011, it is now 2018 and the building site is moving at a snails pace but they have cleared what was High Peak College.

https://www.barratthomes.co.uk/new-homes/derbyshire/H773901-Heathfield-Nook/

When it comes to commuting along the A6 they are lying bastards.

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Democorruptcy
3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This will clean retail out much quicker.20% margin on shares means people long the momentum stocks could see a capital wipe out in a day if they dont have stops.Interesting they have to backstop accounts.Good move that,most you can lose is what you have in account.The companies want to hope their counter party can cough up or they might be looking at huge losses.10% on the main markets is a huge change as well.These companies are going to need bullet proof software.Likely why Playtech have moved into the space.

Could be some people closing positions this week if they cannot afford to deposit any extra to cover the increased margins? The 27th might be a fun day.

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Castlevania
1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Could be some people closing positions this week if they cannot afford to deposit any extra to cover the increased margins? The 27th might be a fun day.

Positions taken out before the end of the month, will continue to use the existing margining levels. 

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sancho panza
9 hours ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Lutterworth

I'm Leics too.I've noticed latel;y a lot more equestrian/country places coming on the market as well as some random clumps of land

eg 1 ..7 bed farmhouse plus a paddock put on in May 18 at £1,050,000 reduced 21/7/18 to £965,000

eg2... 5 beds 6 acres ...£950,000

eg 3...5 bed put on in May for £900,000 and then reduced 19/7/18 to £800,000

 

Strange and early reductions in two cases.

8 hours ago, Errol said:

Those margin increases are insane.

I prefer the word substantial...........

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