Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza i added some more earlier.One more tranche left to get now.Free cash flow will explode higher in the next cycle.Divi might or might not hold until then.5G and FTTH are where its going to be.I actually pulled 20% profit in Imperial in a couple of months so switched some over.Once rates go up smaller players wont be able to fund themselves to compete.

Facebook are down 20% in after hours trading.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Vodafone @ 175.........

 

Just looking on HL sorting trades by volume at 16:35 there's a £34m VOD sell

Time / dateBuy / sellVolumePriceValue

16:35 - 25/07 Sell19551917175.10p £34,235,406.67

Is 16:35 the time the days buys/sells are netted off, perhaps by HL themselves?

At exactly the same time a BT £19m buy, Centrica £8m sell, Lloyds £25m Buy

 

[Lavalas]

LSE closes at 16:30 so maybe?

[Cosmic]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Despite the negative press,looking longer term,5G could wipe out domestic landlines.Maybe one of the techies herein could advise.

5G is more than 20 times faster than 4G and it is expected to boost the "internet of things", which describes a wide-range of objects that are connected to the internet and can collect and exchange data to perform functions such as operating autonomous vehicles, controlling the heating at home, managing maintenance in factories or monitoring energy consumption.

5G is great for 'IoT' type applications, mobile etc generally low bandwidth applications but not a replacement for fixed line fibre when it comes to streaming which is, of course, replacing traditional broadcast with even Sky now offering 'Sky' without the dish or gaming where bandwidth and latency are important (modern games can be 100GB in size to download... that stings unless 5G drops the current model adopted by 4G of charging per GB which I doubt will happen). Latency is never going to be good enough for anyone playing FPS, action or MMORPG type games. With the rise of VR the demand for low latency is sustained further even if traditional gaming dies off (which it shows no signs of doing so).

[ashestoashes]

thought there was some talk of the government getting involved in 5G infrastructure, maybe was USA

[DoINeedOne]

18 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

thought there was some talk of the government getting involved in 5G infrastructure, maybe was USA

https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/23/uk-sets-out-plan-to-spend-billions-on-fiber-and-5g-broadband-for-all/?guccounter=1

Problem is they said the same about 4g if i remember correctly how the UK will be the best 

[Barnsey]

Might be of interest:

The UK needs a state investment bank to support its industrial strategy

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/26/the-uk-needs-a-state-investment-bank-to-support-its-industrial-strategy/

Quote

The challenge for policymakers now is to move away from a consumption-driven growth model towards a modern investment-led strategy focused on addressing the key challenges of the 21st century. The government’s industrial strategy is a step in the right direction — but unless there are sources of long-term, patient finance established to support it, it is unlikely to succeed.

Quote

In a recent blog post, Treasury Minister Kwasi Kwarteng MP described a new state investment bank as an “unrealistic prospect” because of the impact it would have on the government’s balance sheet:

“it is highly likely that an infrastructure bank would be added to the government’s balance sheet, as its lending would add to Public Sector Net Debt (PSND). This would potentially jeopardise the government’s fiscal target of reducing PSND, as a percentage of GDP, in 2020–21. Since 2010, the government has worked diligently to restore public finances to health but despite nearly achieving its target of reducing debt as a percentage of GDP, debt still remains too high.”

 

[janch]

15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

looking longer term,5G could wipe out domestic landlines.

@SP  I'm the most untechy person you could hope to meet and I've done away with a landline.  I use a mobile for phone and a "dongle" for internet and "freeview" for TV so no games or streaming.  I doubt I'll have a fixed line again.

[Nicolas Turgeon]

Going back to gold for a minute, New Gold Inc (NGD) are on my list of ones to watch and they seem to be down 17% today off the back of their q2 results.
Time to average in if you're holding these?

[Lavalas]

I saw the New Gold result this morning and considered whether I should bail at a (smaller) loss first thing today. Ended up deciding to keep the faith in the bigger picture. Didn’t anticipate a 17% drop though. Be interested to hear others thoughts on them now.

[kibuc]

"Process facility performance continued to improve, however, operational and mechanical challenges consistent with project startups impacted availability during the second quarter. Review and implementation of design improvements is underway to reduce equipment wear and failure and increase operational stability."

Their future depends on Rainy River project, and it has been a money sink so far. It's at multi-year low at the moment, but I'd rather stay away for now as there are more promising medium-term plays in my opinion. Then again, my risk profile is gung-ho and my portfolio management skills very questionable as I'm 100% on a single stock at the moment, so take whatever I say with a bucket of salt.

[DurhamBorn]

On New Gold id be happy to buy here for one of the more risky stocks,but it would be a smaller holding within a portfolio of the complex.Its probably teething problems with the mill etc the days when operating show 22k tonnes through the and thats decent.Market will be worried as the Rainy River project has cost a lot of capital and the companies future depends on it.Results days are always interesting in gold mining stocks,Yamana and Eldorado usually upset everyone at theirs and they go tomorrow i think,could they please the market once?

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

"UK households spending more than income for first time since 1988"

Households across the UK spent around £900 more on average than they received in income during 2017 – marking the first time in nearly 30 years they had more money going out than coming in.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-households-spending-income-borrowing-saving-economy-gdp-a8464731.html

 

...NOT long to go before this thing KICKS OFF!

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"UK households spending more than income for first time since 1988"

Households across the UK spent around £900 more on average than they received in income during 2017 – marking the first time in nearly 30 years they had more money going out than coming in.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-households-spending-income-borrowing-saving-economy-gdp-a8464731.html

 

...NOT long to go before this thing KICKS OFF!

 

[kibuc]

Thank Lorde credit is so easily available, otherwise peeps would have to steal the missing £900.

[kibuc]

Also on New Gold, their grade of 1.24g/t is... erm... it's dirt. Probably won't make a difference if gold shoots up to 3k but at current prices it's very hard to make money off it.

[Lavalas]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

"Process facility performance continued to improve, however, operational and mechanical challenges consistent with project startups impacted availability during the second quarter. Review and implementation of design improvements is underway to reduce equipment wear and failure and increase operational stability."

Their future depends on Rainy River project, and it has been a money sink so far. It's at multi-year low at the moment, but I'd rather stay away for now as there are more promising medium-term plays in my opinion. Then again, my risk profile is gung-ho and my portfolio management skills very questionable as I'm 100% on a single stock at the moment, so take whatever I say with a bucket of salt.

100% on Wesdome? Pretty good portfolio management if so 

[Barnsey]

Some predictions and generally very useful insight, this guy seems pretty good at what he does:

Extrapolating Growth

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180725/

Quote

I’ve often described what I call the Iron Law of Valuation: the higher the price investors pay for a given set of expected future cash flows, the lower the long-term investment returns they should expect. As a result, it’s precisely when past investment returns look most glorious that future investment returns are likely to be most dismal, and vice-versa.

Quote

The upshot is this. Measured from their highs of early-2018, we presently estimate that the completion of the current cycle will result in market losses on the order of -64% for the S&P 500 Index, -57% for the Nasdaq 100 Index, -68% for the Russell 2000 Index, and nearly -69% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

These estimates undoubtedly seem preposterous, as was my March 2000 projection of an -83% plunge in technology stocks (the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost an implausibly precise -83% in the subsequent 2000-2002 collapse), as was my projection in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely suffer negative total returns over the following decade (it did), as was my April 2007 estimate that the S&P 500 could lose -40%, not to become deeply undervalued, but simply to reach valuations that were “standard, normal, commonplace” (the S&P 500 went on to lose -55% in the subsequent 2007-2009 collapse, though I emphasized in late-2008 – after the S&P 500 had indeed collapsed by more than -40% – that “The best way to begin this comment is to reiterate that U.S. stocks are now undervalued”).

Quote

The present combination of record valuations and divergent market internals, coming off of the most wicked ‘overvalued, overbought, overbullish’ extremes in history, creates a danger zone that will not be resolved until some combination of those factors – valuations, internals, and overextended conditions – shifts to a less dangerous mix.

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

"Process facility performance continued to improve, however, operational and mechanical challenges consistent with project startups impacted availability during the second quarter. Review and implementation of design improvements is underway to reduce equipment wear and failure and increase operational stability."

Their future depends on Rainy River project, and it has been a money sink so far. It's at multi-year low at the moment, but I'd rather stay away for now as there are more promising medium-term plays in my opinion. Then again, my risk profile is gung-ho and my portfolio management skills very questionable as I'm 100% on a single stock at the moment, so take whatever I say with a bucket of salt.

100% of a smallish amount of money allocated to shares, or 100% of everything and All In?

Which share?

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Might be of interest:

The UK needs a state investment bank to support its industrial strategy

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2018/07/26/the-uk-needs-a-state-investment-bank-to-support-its-industrial-strategy/

 

What a shocker.

It just shows how their HPI props have created a zombie economy. Banks only prepared to lend against houses, instead of support job creating new businesses.

If you were a bank do you lend to an untried business or a London HTB with 45% of any loss covered, 5% by the buyer's deposit and 40% by taxpayers reimbursing the loss.

Seems like the Mansion House speech £5bn to the BoE that is going to be leveraged up to £750bn lending, won't be for any industrial strategy, just HPI as usual.

 

[Band]

33 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What a shocker.

It just shows how their HPI props have created a zombie economy. Banks only prepared to lend against houses, instead of support job creating new businesses.

If you were a bank do you lend to an untried business or a London HTB with 45% of any loss covered, 5% by the buyer's deposit and 40% by taxpayers reimbursing the loss.

Seems like the Mansion House speech £5bn to the BoE that is going to be leveraged up to £750bn lending, won't be for any industrial strategy, just HPI as usual.

 

And the only way to get a loan for a business is to use that house as collateral.

[Majorpain]

58 minutes ago, Banned said:

And the only way to get a loan for a business is to use that house as collateral. 

Not quite true, if your buying machinery you can get equipment finance secured against it.  The only downside comes in a recession when the buying company goes bust, where the value of that machinery decreases to what other companies will be willing to pay for it.  At best the bank will take a hefty haircut, at worst they are stuck paying to store an expensive machine, that is losing a lot of value every year, which likely cannot economically be repurposed to another task and they cant find anyone who wants to buy it. 

I saw an example of a beast of a CNC that had been repossessed (the company had financed £800k of machinery total), it had all the bells and whistles, but its been sitting in scott + Sargeants salesroom since april...

[Don Coglione]

Anyone into INFA here (as tipped on HPC)? Appears to fit the profile of this thread and has had a fun day today; for clarity, I have dipped in and out.

On another note, what did Barrick do to upset the market gods today? I had always seen it as a relatively safe play amongst the miners,

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Anyone into INFA here (as tipped on HPC)? Appears to fit the profile of this thread and has had a fun day today; for clarity, I have dipped in and out.

On another note, what did Barrick do to upset the market gods today? I had always seen it as a relatively safe play amongst the miners,

barrick didnt do so bad today compared to EGO & NGD, infact the dog SBGL went up., are we looking at the same thing ? ABRD?

[DoINeedOne]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

barrick didnt do so bad today compared to EGO & NGD, infact the dog SBGL went up., are we looking at the same thing ? ABRD?

Barrick Gold Corporation

NYSE: ABX (USD)

 $11.100.72 (6.09%)