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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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55 minutes ago, Shatner's Bassoon said:

I'm originally from Whitehaven. Now that's rough...

Anyone got any views on uranium as a contrarian bet? Massively bombed-out, unloved sector since Fukushima. 

Only option I've found so far for exposure is the amusingly titled Geiger Counter Ltd

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/geiger-counter-ltd-npv

I loved Uranium,and over the years the fund URA made me a lot of money many times.That is until the EU decided we cant buy US ETFs anymore and must instead buy Italian bank bonds.If you want to play Uranium then a good way is actually Sibanye Stillwater or Harmony Gold.Sibanye has millions of pounds of Uranium on its tailings dams,and Harmony produces buckets of the stuff from its Moab Khotsong mine as a by product with the gold.Its only breaking even at the moment on the Uranium,but if the price ran it would be hugely profitable.They also own the only plant in SA to turn it into cake.

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1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANKS for that DB!

I'm off to Tescos now on me push-bike...

Im giving it a miss tonight freezers are rammed.I got some packs of cod fillet last night though £1.25 each instead of £4.50.Really nice stuff so fish and chips next week.Long time ago i dated a girl who lived in Keswick,but was from Cockermouth and lives back there now.She used to take me to all these hidden waterfalls and pools around the lakes where we used to go skinny dipping.She wanted kids though and i didnt want anymore so had to end it with her rather than string her along,but we are still good friends.Fantastic girl.

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Shatner's Bassoon
18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I loved Uranium,and over the years the fund URA made me a lot of money many times.That is until the EU decided we cant buy US ETFs anymore and must instead buy Italian bank bonds.If you want to play Uranium then a good way is actually Sibanye Stillwater or Harmony Gold.Sibanye has millions of pounds of Uranium on its tailings dams,and Harmony produces buckets of the stuff from its Moab Khotsong mine as a by product with the gold.Its only breaking even at the moment on the Uranium,but if the price ran it would be hugely profitable.They also own the only plant in SA to turn it into cake.

Interesting. Good knowledge sir.

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All this northern talk, my mum is from Carlise, used to spend my summers at my Grandads in Egremont and we used to go to Whitehaven for fish and chips good times

Not been there for around 16 years now but even then live in London and used to travel up

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Shatner's Bassoon

ha, my wife's from Egremont and I'm from Whitehaven.

We live in Manchester now but still have vague thoughts about retiring back up there at some point (maybe in the next few years if DB's tips pay off:)).

Houses still cheap as chips, you've got the sea on one side & the Lakes on the other. But, like DB says, it's massively isolated & not sure I could hack it on a permanent basis.

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leonardratso

id love to give up work and piss off to the coast, summer probably not so much, but i really like dead squally coastal towns in winter with noone around.

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M S E Refugee
2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

arsepartia? never heard of it. is it posh for bum crack?

Locals pronounce Aspatria as "Spatree" and nearby Torpenhow is pronounced as Trapennah.

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leonardratso
2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Locals pronounce Aspatria as "Spatree" and nearby Torpenhow is pronounced as Trapennah.

ah dyslexic eh. Im afraid i cant make it anyway, im off to clitheroe instead, their current hero has died of exhaustion so im applying for the job.

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From another thread..  @DurhamBorn, is that you being interviewed in that video? )  A lot of it makes sense although he seems to be more aggressive about getting out of equity for now. 

3 hours ago, The Masked Tulip said:

This is long - hour and 20 minutes - but well worth listening to. David is a good guy and his analysis I think will be proved to be spot on.

Also thinks that the Fed is setting up Trump as the fall guy.

 

Pre-crash: 

- Short: equity/oil

- Everything (including PMs) likely to fall, except for JPY, dollar, USTs

Post-crash:

- Short: dollar

- Long: everything else

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The Masked Tulip
26 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

From another thread..  @DurhamBorn, is that you being interviewed in that video? )  A lot of it makes sense although he seems to be more aggressive about getting out of equity for now. 

Pre-crash: 

- Short: equity/oil

- Everything (including PMs) likely to fall, except for JPY, dollar, USTs

Post-crash:

- Short: dollar

- Long: everything else

 

 

Yep,  that is it.

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sancho panza
12 hours ago, Barnsey said:

So we did see the BOE IR rise after all, unanimous 9-0, is my 'one and done' prediction going to be true or will they have time to squeeze a couple more in?

They were pretty much saying that the reason they were raising was so they could cut inot the next recession.

 

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3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

They were pretty much saying that the reason they were raising was so they could cut inot the next recession.

 

And he managed to talk the pound down on a day he raised rates, he is incredible. He can only cut when the FED does, so he needs to hope their recession comes first.

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sancho panza
1 minute ago, Banned said:

And he managed to talk the pound down on a day he raised rates, he is incredible. He can only cut when the FED does, so he needs to hope their recession comes first.

Eskimoes and ice.

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Hi DB, what’s your opinion on Hochschild mining? The share price seems to have taken battering due to the Vanguard sell off, good buying potential?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4190346-hochschild-mining-still-looks-like-one-best-buying-opportunities-silver-sector

Just to add to that, they seem to have driven down the net debt and re-financed what they have. I also am trying to spread risk from the PM miners away from Africa. Also going by the article below when crunching the numbers suggest it was 25% undervalued at £2.12 so the current price looks likes a ‘buy’ from me.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-hoc/hochschild-mining-shares/news/investors-are-undervaluing-hochschild-mining-plc-lonhoc-by-25/

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15 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
Where's the count with his MASSIVE HEADLINE...
Come on count me ol' mucker ya slacking a bit here!xD
Interest Rates HIKED!
 
The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 0.75% – the highest level since the financial crisis – after a unanimous decision by its rate-setting committee.

:-) :-) :-)...must admit I was surprised not to see it straight away...he must be on holiday or checking his diary to make sure its not April 1st!

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DXY on its way back to 96, I was wrong about thinking it was at a turning point, seems it's still got a little way to run, putting huge pressure on GBP/EUR now, and of course emerging markets, Yuan almost breaking above 7.0, a crucial level.

Then this:

Screenshot_20180803-090416_Twitter.thumb.jpg.0d377d964dd6e554a104b749b5960722.jpg

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22 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

DXY on its way back to 96, I was wrong about thinking it was at a turning point, seems it's still got a little way to run, putting huge pressure on GBP/EUR now, and of course emerging markets, Yuan almost breaking above 7.0, a crucial level.

Then this: 

Screenshot_20180803-090416_Twitter.thumb.jpg.0d377d964dd6e554a104b749b5960722.jpg

Undesirable?  That sounds almost like the economy would be healing itself and heading back to normal after years of unrestrained credit growth!!!!!

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Bricks & Mortar

FACE webinar with David Brady - (paraphrasing) approx 53-57mins:
After the crash.. boost assets maybe... when they roll out QE again, helicopter money, universal income benefits.  So they're gonna roll out these programs after the crash... flood the economy again with liquidity.  The number of goods isn't gonna go up... So inflation...  Or rather, stagflation.

Although David Brady sees the future broadly in line with this thread, I'd say  his view on the government response is slightly different.  I expect a more general 'helicopter' approach would mean a different set of winners and losers than a 'printing and spending to industry' approach.

Anyone think this credible?

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Hey @leonardratso now ...now no need to get envious, but here's a pic of the fox I woke up the next day with in cockermouth...does she/he look like a tran ? xD

cockermouthfox.jpg.a2f4f902c1ce406d3c6237504b445122.jpg

1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

:-) :-) :-)...must admit I was surprised not to see it straight away...he must be on holiday or checking his diary to make sure its not April 1st!

xDxDxD

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sleepwello'nights
44 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Screenshot_20180803-090416_Twitter.thumb.jpg.0d377d964dd6e554a104b749b5960722.jpg

That would suit me fine as well. Presumably that would keep inflation in check for a few years or would sterling fall?

I notice the Gold price is falling in dollar terms but hardly moving in GBP.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
56 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

DXY on its way back to 96, I was wrong about thinking it was at a turning point, seems it's still got a little way to run, putting huge pressure on GBP/EUR now, and of course emerging markets, Yuan almost breaking above 7.0, a crucial level.

Then this:

Screenshot_20180803-090416_Twitter.thumb.jpg.0d377d964dd6e554a104b749b5960722.jpg

 
property prices plummet -> CHECK
interest rates up            -> CHECK
unemployment up          -> CHECK
full blown recession        -> CHECK
 
SO basically what DB has been predicting ALL along!
 
NO need to listen to that Canadian criminal C**T!:Old:

 

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24 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

FACE webinar with David Brady - (paraphrasing) approx 53-57mins:
After the crash.. boost assets maybe... when they roll out QE again, helicopter money, universal income benefits.  So they're gonna roll out these programs after the crash... flood the economy again with liquidity.  The number of goods isn't gonna go up... So inflation...  Or rather, stagflation.

Although David Brady sees the future broadly in line with this thread, I'd say  his view on the government response is slightly different.  I expect a more general 'helicopter' approach would mean a different set of winners and losers than a 'printing and spending to industry' approach.

Anyone think this credible?

 

I’ve followed David Brady for a long while. I like him, he’s clever and clearly very successful but he is really ‘just’ a commodities trader (and I use the word ‘just’ for want of a much better word). He could be right about helicopter money etc obviously but I don’t think it’s the macro side of things that he puts most of his efforts into. Just my opinion.

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Don Coglione
2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

:-) :-) :-)...must admit I was surprised not to see it straight away...he must be on holiday or checking his diary to make sure its not April 1st!

Nah, he's living it up in his tent chateau in France...

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Bricks & Mortar
19 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

He could be right about helicopter money etc obviously but

That's my feeling too.  I think we might get a bit of helicopter, or even jubilee if the deflation is shocking enough - but limited and short term, with the printing to industry on the back end, and more sustained.  I thought I best highlight it though, as I think if it were more than this, it'd catch this thread on the wrong foot.

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5 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

That's my feeling too.  I think we might get a bit of helicopter, or even jubilee if the deflation is shocking enough - but limited and short term, with the printing to industry on the back end, and more sustained.  I thought I best highlight it though, as I think if it were more than this, it'd catch this thread on the wrong foot.

Oh yeah, I agree it’s totally worth highlighting and I’d be keen to hear what other people’s thoughts are. I’ll watch the interview later today.

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