Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Hey @leonardratso now ...now no need to get envious, but here's a pic of the fox I woke up the next day with in cockermouth...does she/he look like a tran ?

hmm, yeah, nice, but hard to tell with these lady boys, some do look good, until you meat them of course. (no misspelling here).

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

DXY on its way back to 96, I was wrong about thinking it was at a turning point, seems it's still got a little way to run, putting huge pressure on GBP/EUR now, and of course emerging markets, Yuan almost breaking above 7.0, a crucial level.

Then this:

I think that’s the stress testing scenario for the banks. They get the banks to run similar exercises, but with different scenarios each years.

[Castlevania]

25 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, yeah, nice, but hard to tell with these lady boys, some do look good, until you meat them of course. (no misspelling here).

If their hands are bigger than yours, it’s usually a give away.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, yeah, nice, but hard to tell with these lady boys, some do look good, until you meat them of course. (no misspelling here).

 

@leonardratso Ya BANG on the money! ...the pic is of the number 1 trans actress and model Treechada “Poyd” Petcharat, in Thailand.

 

Heres another pic of her ...sorry i meant him!

 

 

SEE the real flesh here...

 

 

WTF would ya do if ya woke up after a night of passion thinking this was a woman, AND she tells ya later...she was a bloke b4!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Anyway back to business, ...logged in my HL acc BLIMEY my "New Gold" down 40% yikes, looks like its going bust, (good job i only bought a small holding) any thoughts DB?

[leonardratso]

28 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Anyway back to business, ...logged in my HL acc BLIMEY my "New Gold" down 40% yikes, looks like its going bust, (good job i only bought a small holding) any thoughts DB?

pretty boy. hahah. wonder what the undercarriage is like.

RE:NGD, they always bang on about big rides and high volatility on this thread with gold miners, throw into the mix the usual pot boiler of geopolitical risk with 3rd world shit holes [(c) Dtrump] and there you have it, im 40% off on NGD, but to be honest im not actually that bothered, we knew they were going to be volatile, and like you said - small amounts mean non catastrophic losses - even @ 100%, part and parcel of living in sadiq's new london.

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Hi DB, what’s your opinion on Hochschild mining? The share price seems to have taken battering due to the Vanguard sell off, good buying potential?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4190346-hochschild-mining-still-looks-like-one-best-buying-opportunities-silver-sector

Just to add to that, they seem to have driven down the net debt and re-financed what they have. I also am trying to spread risk from the PM miners away from Africa. Also going by the article below when crunching the numbers suggest it was 25% undervalued at £2.12 so the current price looks likes a ‘buy’ from me.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-hoc/hochschild-mining-shares/news/investors-are-undervaluing-hochschild-mining-plc-lonhoc-by-25/

I havent really done any research on them,but i like the whole space.My filters try to buy me the ones that outperform as a whole in a complex turn.Gold seems to be tracking the Yuan at the moment and its highly likely the Chinese are selling short from their offshore accounts to force the price down.Zinc,platinum and copper are similar and its likely the Chinese see a Yuan devaluation is coming if Trump pushes through the 25% tariffs.If so they are probably trying to cheapen these assets so they dont blow up their factories in a devaluation.Looking at the contracts,the size of the short squeeze when it hits should be telling.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

DXY on its way back to 96, I was wrong about thinking it was at a turning point, seems it's still got a little way to run, putting huge pressure on GBP/EUR now, and of course emerging markets, Yuan almost breaking above 7.0, a crucial level.

Then this:

No mention that with a 'deal' Brexit,we may get the same or worse.The overleveraged banking system has nothing to do with Brexit per se.

I have very little faith in the BoE at all.The fact that they appear to equate the health of the banking system with the health of the economy says a lot imo.

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

RE:NGD, they always bang on about big rides and high volatility on this thread with gold miners, throw into the mix the usual pot boiler of geopolitical risk with 3rd world shit holes [(c) Dtrump] and there you have it, im 40% off on NGD, but to be honest im not actually that bothered, we knew they were going to be volatile, and like you said - small amounts mean non catastrophic losses - even @ 100%, part and parcel of living in sadiq's new london.

 

https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs-components

 

As you say allude,if you're worried about 40% off in a goldie,you probably should prefer the ETF

[sancho panza]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I havent really done any research on them,but i like the whole space.My filters try to buy me the ones that outperform as a whole in a complex turn.Gold seems to be tracking the Yuan at the moment and its highly likely the Chinese are selling short from their offshore accounts to force the price down.Zinc,platinum and copper are similar and its likely the Chinese see a Yuan devaluation is coming if Trump pushes through the 25% tariffs.If so they are probably trying to cheapen these assets so they dont blow up their factories in a devaluation.Looking at the contracts,the size of the short squeeze when it hits should be telling.

I've always been fascinated by these stories of price manipulation.Never found a source I trust on the matter.

 

Is it probable,possible,who are the parties capable of it,how much can they move the price?

 

\Do you have a view DB? Understand if you don't have a view.I'm currently agnostic on the matter

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

46 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs-components

 

As you say allude,if you're worried about 40% off in a goldie,you probably should prefer the ETF

I may average down into NGD...later today.

 

@sancho panza ARCA Gold BUGS (HUI) that's an interesting ETF - I'd be interested to do some research & maybe buy into it...

 

Just searched HL, and they DON'T have it?!

 

Is this to do with the recent new EU BS rules?

EDIT: BTW...Just checked the GOLD price AND its UP $10 in the last few hours ...YAHOO!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I've always been fascinated by these stories of price manipulation.Never found a source I trust on the matter.

 

Is it probable,possible,who are the parties capable of it,how much can they move the price?

 

\Do you have a view DB? Understand if you don't have a view.I'm currently agnostic on the matter

I often used to ask this to my friend who taught me most of the macro stuff.He said every market is manipulated including gold,but only around the margins and so it didnt make any difference as it was a rounding error.However i do think the Chinese have been shorting gold through their off-shore accounts.The gold gross short is at an all time high at 172k contracts,yet the commercial short (thats always short for reasons iv said before,people in the industry who use gold short it to protect their money while they sell/convert the gold,when its low it means they see little risk in more falls so dont cover) is at the lowest since January 2016 (when the PM bull run started).If the PBOC is holding short contracts to keep gold down id expect those contracts to hold as gold moves higher,the margin calls wont force them out.Unless they want gold to pop of course.

The reason i see for this is tariffs.If Trump goes for 25% its highly likely the Yuan will de-value,and that will crush most of China's factories.The Chinese might be shorting gold,copper etc to force the price down to counter any devaluation.

We will have to see how this plays out.My cycle and macro timelines still point to gold at $1450 to $1570.My indicators all say buy the PM sector.Im happy to wait and so far as a whole im fine with what i hold,some down,some up,average very slightly down.So id say mostly there is very little manipulation,much less than people think (make a bad call its someone elses fault etc),but i do think at the moment we might have a state actor involved and thats almost certain to be China.interesting to see if the gold/Yuan correlation breaks.

[Dogtania]

With regard to the miniscule interest rate rise, I would have thought it obvious for him to rise - now means he can both go up or down after any Brexit mayhem.  Also means he can tick off a raise on his bucket list.

[Democorruptcy]

Amerman article:

Quote

Martin Feldstein, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Reagan and is currently a Harvard professor, recently wrote an extraordinary editorial in the Wall Street Journal in which he strongly advocated that the Federal Reserve pursue policies that would: 1) continue to raise interest rates; and 2) thereby pop asset bubbles in the stock and commercial real estate markets; 3) which would cause an estimated $9+ trillion in investor losses; 4) possibly lead to another recession and the accompanying major job losses; and 5) would be followed by forcing interest rates down again to near historic lows.

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/Feldstein.html

 

Includes his matrix (near the end of the article)

 

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I often used to ask this to my friend who taught me most of the macro stuff.He said every market is manipulated including gold,but only around the margins and so it didnt make any difference as it was a rounding error.However i do think the Chinese have been shorting gold through their off-shore accounts.The gold gross short is at an all time high at 172k contracts,yet the commercial short (thats always short for reasons iv said before,people in the industry who use gold short it to protect their money while they sell/convert the gold,when its low it means they see little risk in more falls so dont cover) is at the lowest since January 2016 (when the PM bull run started).If the PBOC is holding short contracts to keep gold down id expect those contracts to hold as gold moves higher,the margin calls wont force them out.Unless they want gold to pop of course.

The reason i see for this is tariffs.If Trump goes for 25% its highly likely the Yuan will de-value,and that will crush most of China's factories.The Chinese might be shorting gold,copper etc to force the price down to counter any devaluation.

We will have to see how this plays out.My cycle and macro timelines still point to gold at $1450 to $1570.My indicators all say buy the PM sector.Im happy to wait and so far as a whole im fine with what i hold,some down,some up,average very slightly down.So id say mostly there is very little manipulation,much less than people think (make a bad call its someone elses fault etc),but i do think at the moment we might have a state actor involved and thats almost certain to be China.interesting to see if the gold/Yuan correlation breaks.

On a different note DB the huge deficits the US is going to run this year and onwards will that possibly tilt things straight to inflation or still a high chance of a deflation first

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

On a different note DB the huge deficits the US is going to run this year and onwards will that possibly tilt things straight to inflation or still a high chance of a deflation first

I think that I may be slightly in love with DurhamBorn - he has been the catalyst for me to get off the fence.

The one (and only) issue I have with his philosophy is to ignore politics; surely we have seen over many decades how politicians can influence the wider economy, above and beyond the metrics that we might reasonably expect?

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

On a different note DB the huge deficits the US is going to run this year and onwards will that possibly tilt things straight to inflation or still a high chance of a deflation first

Straight to inflation is possible,but i dont see it because the Fed (and others) are now tightening.The amount of debt out there should start to default long before inflation rips higher.

[Talking Monkey]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Straight to inflation is possible,but i dont see it because the Fed (and others) are now tightening.The amount of debt out there should start to default long before inflation rips higher.

Thanks DB

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

I think that I may be slightly in love with DurhamBorn - he has been the catalyst for me to get off the fence.

The one (and only) issue I have with his philosophy is to ignore politics; surely we have seen over many decades how politicians can influence the wider economy, above and beyond the metrics that we might reasonably expect?

When i say ignore its not quite right i very much look at the likely macro situation of a government ,but not down to if or not they take the utilities into public ownership.I paid my mortgage off with tobacco stock profits after buying most of them when politics was all about banning them.Clinton was going to legislate them away etc and he was ahead in the polls.If by a miracle Corbyn won an election i doubt he would be around long enough to do much.Sterling would collapse and far from taking everything into public ownership the lights would be going out.

[UmBongo]

I don't know if this is quite the right thread to post this but I've been following David Quintieri's 'The Money GPS' channel for a few months now and I think you peeps might like it.

He's based in Canada, talks a lot about the US but also features what's goin' down in other nations.

[MrXxx]

10 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Anyway back to business, ...logged in my HL acc BLIMEY my "New Gold" down 40% yikes, looks like its going bust, (good job i only bought a small holding) any thoughts DB?

Ah, but just like your lady friend Mr RYS, "All that glistens is not necessarily gold!" :-) :-) :-)

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Straight to inflation is possible,but i dont see it because the Fed (and others) are now tightening.The amount of debt out there should start to default long before inflation rips higher.

I've said it before but Powell won't easily back down, he'll maintain his steady hikes into next year targeting 3%, unlikely he'll reach it before having to reverse course but at least he's built in room to lower. This hawkish path has been boosted further by Esther George replacing John Williams.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I've said it before but Powell won't easily back down, he'll maintain his steady hikes into next year targeting 3%, unlikely he'll reach it before having to reverse course but at least he's built in room to lower. This hawkish path has been boosted further by Esther George replacing John Williams.

That's the idea in the article I posted earlier

Quote

 

For monetary policy to shorten the coming recession and set the base for the next recovery, current economic theory demands the ability to sharply lower interest rates - by "at least" 3% in Feldstein's professional opinion.

http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/Feldstein.html

 

 

[Barnsey]

I'm sure the yield curve will resume flattening alongside the next hike in September, inverted by end of year with the 2nd hike to 2.25%, and then it's just a matter of how 2019 pans out. If the recovery survives until then, it'll be the longest expansion in history, exceeding 91-01. Many indicators signifying otherwise of course, most recently this:

Been reading up algo passive trading, when this thing turns it could/will be frighteningly rapid vs previous market corrections. 

[DurhamBorn]

We have seen a few of the flash crash events already and the likes of the FANGS seeing 20% falls in a day.China is in serious trouble as well.I love the fact gold is so hated right now.Its been a currency with no counter party for 4000 years at least.The huge risk to wealth this end of cycle is counter party risk.One other asset class hated right now is UK domestic companies.Some are very very cheap and not exposed to the China credit bubble etc,they will actually gain when it breaks from lower costs

 

As an edit,maybe Barnsey like you say if the curve flattens around the next hike that could trigger the PMs.I think once that happens recession is on,even before it inverts.I think the liquidity loss already ensures a recession that includes a debt deflation,but like you say it might be the next increase or the one after than really forces things.If so we should expect the US equity market to of already entered a bear market.Lets see how PMs and that curve goes from here.

[Errol]

As far as I'm concerned anyone 'hating' gold hasn't been paying attention to anything that has been going on for the last 20 years (at least).