Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

I was going to buy Greggs with a big stake when it dipped to £4 about four years ago,but was waiting for another 5% off,cost me about £25k not buying,

I used to go in Greggs regular until the prices doubled and the sizes were cut in half.Its a joke now how expensive and local bakers everywhere are superior.They are still a good business,but over valued.

[Barnsey]

42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I used to go in Greggs regular until the prices doubled and the sizes were cut in half.Its a joke now how expensive and local bakers everywhere are superior.They are still a good business,but over valued.

Agreed, they've increased their prices way beyond what's expected, masking it behind their newly refurbed outlets. Not sure how well their drive-thru stores are doing. Pound bakery pretty much filling the gap they left very successfully, just wish there were far more of them around the UK.

Do card factory have much of a retail park presence? If not this would make me a little nervous going forward. Interesting to see the recent match up between The Range and Iceland, maybe paving the way for B&M/Heron Foods intergration as they are already under the same ownership?

As for Pets at Home, I think their expansion into the veterinary side may well prove very successful due to their market position and strength.

I only ever have Dominos using offer codes, worth bearing in mind that their online ordering system already "looks" for an appropriate voucher code for you, so I think most never pay full price, more like 1/3 off at least. Has left pizza hut in the dust when it comes to delivery, which explains their equally good delivery/collection offers in recent years.

[Lightscribe]

Emergency services and others get 50% of the full price list Dominos too as well those using vouchers , I think overall out of the takeaway pizzas they tend to be the most popular. I would never pay the listed prices but the one opposite me does a one topping collection large pizza for £5.99 which I don’t think is too bad on the odd occasion we get a takeaway pizza.

We prefer a local Italian place up the road, traditional pizzas in a wood oven for the same price. Growing up in the 80’s Pizza Hut was the main player, and eating at the restaurants was a bit of treat as a kid, their takeaway pizza is abysmal nowadays.

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

Emergency services and others get 50% of the full price list Dominos too as well those using vouchers , I think overall out of the takeaway pizzas they tend to be the most popular. I would never pay the listed prices but the one opposite me does a one topping collection large pizza for £5.99 which I don’t think is too bad on the odd occasion we get a takeaway pizza.

We prefer a local Italian place up the road, traditional pizzas in a wood oven for the same price. Growing up in the 80’s Pizza Hut was the main player, and eating at the restaurants was a bit of treat as a kid, their takeaway pizza is abysmal nowadays.

Thats why i hate Domino's and never use them.I just want a straight up price,not a load of 50% off,buy 2 get a side,toss off the manager get free fries.The menus that come through the door make no sense at all,just a massive amount of different price etc.Agree on Pizza Hut though,they used to be really nice and should of cleaned up,but have gone backwards.The truth is there is simply far too much competition in the mid/lower range eating out/take away market due to rapid expansion of most chains.Looks ripe for a long consolidation.

[Band]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats why i hate Domino's and never use them.I just want a straight up price,not a load of 50% off,buy 2 get a side,toss off the manager get free fries.The menus that come through the door make no sense at all,just a massive amount of different price etc.Agree on Pizza Hut though,they used to be really nice and should of cleaned up,but have gone backwards.The truth is there is simply far too much competition in the mid/lower range eating out/take away market due to rapid expansion of most chains.Looks ripe for a long consolidation.

If you collect you get a medium pizza for £6 or a large for £8. Scandalous prices if you want them delivered.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Banned said:

If you collect you get a medium pizza for £6 or a large for £8. Scandalous prices if you want them delivered.

I make my own using this,had it years,

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002VA4CDI/ref=asc_df_B002VA4CDI54599765/?tag=googshopuk-21&creative=22146&creativeASIN=B002VA4CDI&linkCode=df0&hvadid=214458080830&hvpos=1o1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=15664628995403601871&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1006526&hvtargid=pla-421961243985

One of my great loves it Italian music and have quite a few Italian friends.They told me Italian mothers have one of these at home and its as close as you will get to a clay oven taste at home.It makes fabulous pizzas in about 4 minutes.I get the pizza flour from Sainsbury,make my own tomato topping with a mix of puree and passata and oregano.Toppings i use grated cheese or simply pick up all the reduced cheese in Tesco for 30p and freeze it,it goes crumbly when de-frosted but perfect for pizza.Toppings i pick up reduced salami,chicken etc and freeze in in one pizza size amounts.Roughly get a really lovely pizza for around 80p.If family are around il make up four bases and then simply get next one topped out as one is cooking.They are expensive at £100 (i paid £60 when i got mine),but they are fantastic, and its saved me multi times the price.

[A_P]

My mate makes really good pizzas. Just uses a pizza stone, the art is in the dough so he tells me. 

[sancho panza]

Whilewe're talking Italian

Yields near 3%.....I jsut don't know who's buying this stuff...

The last line is particularly amusing.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/italian-bond-market-crisis-coming-up-U4dLf-ZULUCAs9C6PiHJUw/

Italian Bond Market Crisis Coming Up

 

byMike Mish Shedlock

10 hrs-edited

 

Italy's 10-Year bond yield surged around the Italian election. There's heavy issuance in Sept and ECB tapering in Oct.

The yield on Italian bonds surged in May on the victory of the League- and Five Star in the national election. The alliance does not intend to follow EU budget rules.

Heavy issuance is coming up in September. And in October, the ECB is scheduled to taper its QE bond purchases. This Combination of Events May Derail the Italian Bond Market.

Bankers lining up new company bonds in September may find that budget and spending discussions in Italy could derail what’s usually the second-half’s busiest issuance month. That’s what happened in May, another typically busy month for sales, when the Italian election result triggered a government bond sell-off and issuance slump.

“If we have something that resembles what we saw in May, the primary market should basically come to a halt,” said Marco Stoeckle, a credit strategist at Commerzbank AG. “If we have the Italian government curve inverting, anything like that would be enough to significantly hamper issuance volumes. I guess the market would be closed.”

Last week, as Italian finance minister Giovanni Tria was said to begin a series of meetings to determine a draft budget, there were already signs of nerves, with 10-year yields breaking above three percent for the first time in nearly two months. Markets fear the nation may be headed for a collision course with European Union partners as the two parties in Italy’s ruling coalition pledge to implement bold spending plans next year.

On May 29, as BTP spreads lurched violently, borrowing costs for all of Europe’s corporate borrowers rose: the Bloomberg Barclays index of corporate spreads widened 100 basis points in a single day -- its largest jump in almost two years.

Even without Italy, the credit market’s already pretty fragile as it prepares for the potential withdrawal of one of its biggest investors, the European Central Bank, which is due to cut its bond-buying program to 15 billion euros a month in October and then end purchases in December. President Trump’s trade spat with China also isn’t helping calm nerves.

Spread Movements

• On May 2, the spread between Italian 10-year government bonds and German 10-year government bonds was 120 basis points
  (1.2 percentage points).
• After the election, the spread surged as high as 311 basis points.
• The spread is currently 251 basis points.

Default Risk

According to the ECB, there is zero risk of default on any EMU (Eurozone) government bonds. If the market agreed, there would be no spread.

[Band]

43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I make my own using this,had it years,

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002VA4CDI/ref=asc_df_B002VA4CDI54599765/?tag=googshopuk-21&creative=22146&creativeASIN=B002VA4CDI&linkCode=df0&hvadid=214458080830&hvpos=1o1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=15664628995403601871&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1006526&hvtargid=pla-421961243985

One of my great loves it Italian music and have quite a few Italian friends.They told me Italian mothers have one of these at home and its as close as you will get to a clay oven taste at home.It makes fabulous pizzas in about 4 minutes.I get the pizza flour from Sainsbury,make my own tomato topping with a mix of puree and passata and oregano.Toppings i use grated cheese or simply pick up all the reduced cheese in Tesco for 30p and freeze it,it goes crumbly when de-frosted but perfect for pizza.Toppings i pick up reduced salami,chicken etc and freeze in in one pizza size amounts.Roughly get a really lovely pizza for around 80p.If family are around il make up four bases and then simply get next one topped out as one is cooking.They are expensive at £100 (i paid £60 when i got mine),but they are fantastic, and its saved me multi times the price.

I was looking at those a couple of years ago but decided against it thinking i could never make 10/10 pizza which can be sourced if i travel,  i may have to go on the hunt for one again.

My kid loves pizza express so itll save a fortune in the long run if i could get them right.

[leonardratso]

you want to know how bad your pizza is? leave it in the fridge overnight and eat it tomorrow, dominos like this are manky and taste cheap and vile after theyve been in the fridge overnight.

That will be down to the bulk cheap ingredients, man you can taste how nasty they are even when theyve just gone cold after a few hours, congealed muck, no wonder you have to douse them in dips to make them edible. They do well because they are convenient and quick and people are lazy fat fucks. Even the chip shop has to be walked to.

 

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, Banned said:

I was looking at those a couple of years ago but decided against it thinking i could never make 10/10 pizza which can be sourced if i travel,  i may have to go on the hunt for one again.

My kid loves pizza express so itll save a fortune in the long run if i could get them right.

I used to use Pizza Express until I found out that all their chicken is Halal but didn't advertise the fact.

[Agent ZigZag]

Without taking this thread too far off tangent, but to make the best pizza/bread, flat breads/naam etc is all in the preparation of the dough and making sure it rises properly. A stone oven plate works just as well. Spend time learning what a good dough feels and looks like. Practice practice is the only way to making a really cheap meal. Tip - to help the dough rise, when it is placed in a bowl, is to cover it with a shower cap.

[Bobthebuilder]

25 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Without taking this thread too far off tangent, but to make the best pizza/bread, flat breads/naam etc is all in the preparation of the dough and making sure it rises properly. A stone oven plate works just as well. Spend time learning what a good dough feels and looks like. Practice practice is the only way to making a really cheap meal. Tip - to help the dough rise, when it is placed in a bowl, is to cover it with a shower cap.

Another good tip is to keep the dough in a tupperware type box overnight in the fridge and let it prove slowly. Makes great pizza and bread.

I only use water, yeast and flour to make dough, never any fat or sugar, you don't need it.

if you have a fan assisted oven you can make pretty good bread and pizza just on a metal tray.

[leonardratso]

thats the wrong kind of bread we are interested in here. hahahah.

[Alifelessbinary]

I thought this recent article made fascinating reading.

https://pensionpartners.com/gold-bugs-vs-stock-market-bulls/

My passive investments have been very kind to me over the last 8 years, but I’ve recently been diversifying further. I’m now about 7% gold, with my final aim to get to 10% by the end of the year.

I’ve really enjoyed researching the gold miners raised on this threat, but with another little one due in a month I’m just not going to have the time to react to such quick moving markets. Luckily GDX and GDXJ is available through Charles Stanley, so at least I can have exposure, in the full knowledge it will average the returns by buying both good and bad.

The pizza tangent has been brilliant and I’m very tempted with a mini pizza oven.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Alifelessbinary said:

I thought this recent article made fascinating reading.

https://pensionpartners.com/gold-bugs-vs-stock-market-bulls/

My passive investments have been very kind to me over the last 8 years, but I’ve recently been diversifying further. I’m now about 7% gold, with my final aim to get to 10% by the end of the year.

I’ve really enjoyed researching the gold miners raised on this threat, but with another little one due in a month I’m just not going to have the time to react to such quick moving markets. Luckily GDX and GDXJ is available through Charles Stanley, so at least I can have exposure, in the full knowledge it will average the returns by buying both good and bad.

The pizza tangent has been brilliant and I’m very tempted with a mini pizza oven.

looks like you can make plenty more than just pizza in it, but is it hard to clean? or do you just throw it away and get another one? you know, wasteful style (american).

[Band]

8 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

 

The pizza tangent has been brilliant and I’m very tempted with a mini pizza oven.

I just did, 85 pound on ebay.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/G3-Ferrari-Electric-Pizza-Oven-In-Red-With-Stone-Base-1200w-FREE-DELIVERY/253306209591?epid=16017431657&hash=item3afa3a0537:g:JHYAAOSwVFlT6z0z

[DurhamBorn]

A new article from Steve,and interesting he picks up on the same thing we picked up on back in the thread,

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

"Vanguard is significantly reorganizing its PGPMX fund to drastically reduce its exposure to gold and silver mining companies after having maintained its investment consistency for decades,such rare events tend to occur just before major rallies"

 

 

 

[leonardratso]

doesnt look a particularly impressive fund, but as said above, maybe the rehash is more of a reflation cycle winner, dont think its due until september, but might try and get some action there, already have 3 vanguard funds, albeit low volumes, theyve been ok, doesnt mean they wont tank though.

[Bricks & Mortar]

I use a breadmaker to make dough.  My electric oven is a fancy model, (bought on Gumtree), with pyrolytic self-cleaning that turns anything in it to carbon by heating way in excess of normal temp.  I broke the lock so I could open the door during this, and bought a pizza stone.
http://staff.washington.edu/freitz/pizza/clean_cycle_pizza.htm

[Majorpain]

This is why its dangerous shorting Tesla!

[Bricks & Mortar]

$420? 
I'll have some of what he's smoking.

[dgul]

My guess -- Chinese investors who've gone long, will close, and then who'll go short just before they withdraw the offer for funding.

[Illegal, of course, but that's not stopped them before...]

[Democorruptcy]

I thought ths was an interesting read about Sirius, not least for the suggested governbankment guarantee

Sirius Minerals: money for a hole in the ground

FT https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/08/07/1533614400000/Sirius-Minerals--money-for-a-hole-in-the-ground/

[MrXxx]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I make my own using this,had it years,

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002VA4CDI/ref=asc_df_B002VA4CDI54599765/?tag=googshopuk-21&creative=22146&creativeASIN=B002VA4CDI&linkCode=df0&hvadid=214458080830&hvpos=1o1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=15664628995403601871&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1006526&hvtargid=pla-421961243985

One of my great loves it Italian music and have quite a few Italian friends.They told me Italian mothers have one of these at home and its as close as you will get to a clay oven taste at home.It makes fabulous pizzas in about 4 minutes.I get the pizza flour from Sainsbury,make my own tomato topping with a mix of puree and passata and oregano.Toppings i use grated cheese or simply pick up all the reduced cheese in Tesco for 30p and freeze it,it goes crumbly when de-frosted but perfect for pizza.Toppings i pick up reduced salami,chicken etc and freeze in in one pizza size amounts.Roughly get a really lovely pizza for around 80p.If family are around il make up four bases and then simply get next one topped out as one is cooking.They are expensive at £100 (i paid £60 when i got mine),but they are fantastic, and its saved me multi times the price.

I love this site...not only are you all "Financial Wizz kids", but you are all "Domestic Goddesses" as well! :-) :-) :-) "