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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Inoperational Bumblebee
On 08/08/2018 at 10:38, Democorruptcy said:

Very good!

4/20 April 20th, is a day celebrated by marijuana smokers. 

Which is weird, as it's also Hitler's birthday.

Disclaimer: I used to work with lots of Germans, rather than being overly interested in Hitler.

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Noallegiance
16 minutes ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Which is weird, as it's also Hitler's birthday.

Disclaimer: I used to work with lots of Germans, rather than being overly interested in Hitler.

If ever there was a post to some up the West, this is it.

It's OK to be interested in Hitler.

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Bricks & Mortar

4:20, originally meant a time, when school was over, with traditional herbal accompaniment.  It was much later, in the 90's or 00's, when people were setting up a special day for anything you can imagine, that the date 4/20 became a thing. 
Stoners probably just forgot. 
Stoner A "Yahman, it must be a date or something, like. 
Stoner B  "could it be some dudes birthday?"
Stoner A *inhales large draught* *realises he can't remember any birthdays, not even his own*  "Nahman, it's just a day, where you, ah... I dunno, just smoke up like always, I guess."

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Inoperational Bumblebee
1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

If ever there was a post to sum up the West, this is it.

It's OK to be interested in Hitler.

I'm trying not to take this personally. I suspect it wasn't meant so, but I've been drinking.

I get your point though.

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I wondered why this thread had gone dead on tos...

Some advice: withdraw funds from vanguard lifestategy and put it into bullion? Or into emerging markets? The lifestategy etf seems to be highly dependent on North America, and although it's performed amazingly so far this year I'm worried it's about to pop (at which point it will be time to re invest).

Also, as an aside I'm in Dubai atm and I've visited the gold souk a few times to buy gifts. Worked gold- chains, earrings, rings, necklaces etc are very cheap out here, if you are willing to haggle. 20% off what you might pay in the UK.

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10 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

If ever there was a post to some up the West, this is it.

It's OK to be interested in Hitler.

Quite right!

10 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

Disclaimer: I used to work with lots of Germans, rather than being overly interested in Hitler.

You should never have made that statement on this site. A downvote for you sir!

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Pound is taking an absolute battering ... 127.6 ...  putting me off buying USD denominated "stuff" as i think it will bounce back once they inevitably come to an agreement over Brexit. 

Carney is an absolute genus  though, raise rates and then talks the currency down getting the worst of both worlds ..

BOE Interest rake hike in September??

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Agent ZigZag

Pound is taking an absolute battering ... 127.6 ...  putting me off buying USD denominated "stuff

 

I have the direction of travel down to £1.10 to the dollar. Why dont you average in.

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7 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Pound is taking an absolute battering ... 127.6 ...  putting me off buying USD denominated "stuff

 

I have the direction of travel down to £1.10 to the dollar. Why dont you average in.

Was going to buy some jnug and fission in coming days.  May well do.

Anyone have a preference between jnug and gdxj.

Think sterling will crash but can see a brexit bounce negotiations are almost going as i expected albeit May being more useless than i ever thought poddible.

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Forget the GBP, all eyes on the Turkish Lira today, things escalating very quickly! 6.2 at the moment, if it breaches 7 then domestic banks at risk of collapse, EU banks next, with particular focus on Spain.

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17 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

@DurhamBorn I remember you mentioning BT quite a few times before,  and they have done well over the last couple of months for me.

Today I have noticed the following statement in BBC Business Live:

Aren't they completely missing the point, as BT have gone ex-dividend today (10.55p), and the 11p loss pretty much corresponds to that?

Or have I got this completely wrong? 

Exactly,iv made 15% on BT in a few months and i bought a decent chunk.I sold a few the day before the ex div (its six and two threes of course),but just a top slice.Its amazing the lack of knowledge of markets nowadays.I saw a comment about South African miners struggling to pay their dollar debts because the rand is falling.They sell the gold in dollars,but pay the workers in rand,so a falling rand is hugely bullish for them not bearish.

 

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3 hours ago, Banned said:

Pound is taking an absolute battering ... 127.6 ...  putting me off buying USD denominated "stuff" as i think it will bounce back once they inevitably come to an agreement over Brexit. 

Carney is an absolute genus  though, raise rates and then talks the currency down getting the worst of both worlds ..

BOE Interest rake hike in September??

Im loving the £ at the moment,especially being protected inside IBTL.Im actually tempted to bring some back into sterling though as i think we might be close to a bounce soon.Trump is whopping up tariffs  20% on Turkish steel because their currency is falling,thats brutal.Seems he isnt going to let currency take the strain for these countries.Will he do the same with China?

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Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Im loving the £ at the moment,especially being protected inside IBTL.Im actually tempted to bring some back into sterling though as i think we might be close to a bounce soon.Trump is whopping up tariffs  20% on Turkish steel because their currency is falling,thats brutal.Seems he isnt going to let currency take the strain for these countries.Will he do the same with China?

I was about to buy 10k of IBTL at the end of April but backed out when it spiked// was hoping it would go back down... live and learn is the lesson there!

Do you think Sterling will get back to 1.4 when they inevitably come to a deal on Brexit which should be within the next couple of months?

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Being in the industry I’m a big fan of the challenger banks and what they are doing. I’ve been using Monzo and Starling as my main bank accounts the last year and recently opened an account with Glint. These are all real UK banks. 

Reason for mentioning - with Glint you can hold your money in gold as well as GBP and Euro and spend it direct from your MasterCard debit. 

Interesting stuff from the founder on market watch -

https://glintpay.com/presspost/people-decided-efficient-exchange-gold-ben-davies-speaks-marketwatch/?utm_campaign=Perspectives Q3-2018&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_D13PjusTjqtBAXZE-ZIy5hfu5wgGzXX4D27erexyTHs4h7mcOtg4CXFmO6BF3cMDSmaep-YEYiOxxYGu5V2bf9NAgeg&_hsmi=65117924&utm_content=65117924&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=2abf177c-e5d5-4365-91e8-4e79cff86945|ec83ae04-8cb6-4be6-859b-26fd11783930

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Holy s**t, now 6.8!

Italian bank Unicredit trading halted after 5.5% fall, and there I was thinking it was going to be one of the Spanish ones first.

Its mad that the EU banks invested in Turkey in the first place, the EU cant bail it out as Erdogan is a complete nutter on a collision course with an economic black hole.  The problem is that its only going to get worse as i doubt the "Sultan" is going to ease back on the printing press!

2018-08-10_5-16-52.jpg?itok=Q9cLzaux

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Democorruptcy
14 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Its mad that the EU banks invested in Turkey in the first place, the EU cant bail it out as Erdogan is a complete nutter on a collision course with an economic black hole.  The problem is that its only going to get worse as i doubt the "Sultan" is going to ease back on the printing press!

2018-08-10_5-16-52.jpg?itok=Q9cLzaux

In May when inflation was 10.5% Erdogan wanted lower interest rates he described interest rates as the mother and father of all evil.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-currency/turkeys-erdogan-calls-interest-rates-mother-of-all-evil-lira-slides-idUSKBN1IC1NV

I don't know if he's offered Carney a job yet.

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Noallegiance
18 hours ago, Inoperational Bumblebee said:

I'm trying not to take this personally. I suspect it wasn't meant so, but I've been drinking.

I get your point though.

No harm meant. Just a wider general (and probably superfluous!) point.

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UnconventionalWisdom
11 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I wondered why this thread had gone dead on tos...

Some advice: withdraw funds from vanguard lifestategy and put it into bullion? Or into emerging markets? The lifestategy etf seems to be highly dependent on North America, and although it's performed amazingly so far this year I'm worried it's about to pop (at which point it will be time to re invest).

Also, as an aside I'm in Dubai atm and I've visited the gold souk a few times to buy gifts. Worked gold- chains, earrings, rings, necklaces etc are very cheap out here, if you are willing to haggle. 20% off what you might pay in the UK.

I withdrew my lifestrategy funds a month ago after having the same feeling. massive exposure to US equities and the PE ratios are getting big. The other thing is that these funds are easy to invest in so I think there will be a rush for withdrawing once there's a downturn. 

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24 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I withdrew my lifestrategy funds a month ago after having the same feeling. massive exposure to US equities and the PE ratios are getting big. The other thing is that these funds are easy to invest in so I think there will be a rush for withdrawing once there's a downturn. 

I withdrew my pension to a cash fund back in January when I felt we were at the top in the Dow. DB did it exactly the same time with his dads pension (all discussed on HPC).

The stars are all aligned for another downturn sooner rather than later (I thought 2019 - but this may unravel far quicker than I anticipated).

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1 hour ago, Ma2 said:

Being in the industry I’m a big fan of the challenger banks and what they are doing. I’ve been using Monzo and Starling as my main bank accounts the last year and recently opened an account with Glint. These are all real UK banks. 

Reason for mentioning - with Glint you can hold your money in gold as well as GBP and Euro and spend it direct from your MasterCard debit. 

Interesting stuff from the founder on market watch -

https://glintpay.com/presspost/people-decided-efficient-exchange-gold-ben-davies-speaks-marketwatch/?utm_campaign=Perspectives Q3-2018&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_D13PjusTjqtBAXZE-ZIy5hfu5wgGzXX4D27erexyTHs4h7mcOtg4CXFmO6BF3cMDSmaep-YEYiOxxYGu5V2bf9NAgeg&_hsmi=65117924&utm_content=65117924&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=2abf177c-e5d5-4365-91e8-4e79cff86945|ec83ae04-8cb6-4be6-859b-26fd11783930

@Ma2 and all , I was quite tempted by Glint , however I've stumbled on this:
https://www.scribd.com/document/365513333/Glint-Pay-Thoughts-and-Warning-By-Roy-Sebag

Are those coments to be taken seriously?

 

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