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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, Wheeler said:

Looks like a currency collapse to me. I can’t see the lira lasting much past the end of the month. 

He is telling his people to sell their gold and buy Lira xD.For people who think the PMs are a relic,Turkish people who own them have seen a 4% fall,their family who only owned Lira have seen a 66% fall,so far.

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15 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What will turn the USD?

Good question! I changed a substantial GBP amount into USD a few months back when it was 1.42 (now 1.27) when DB spoke about it (thanks DB). But if there's a turn in the air might change back? Can't see it yet personally after the crap going on in this world.

Just a quick question. What's the difference between holding USD or IBTL. Both doing well, but any real difference?

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22 minutes ago, harp said:

Good question! I changed a substantial GBP amount into USD a few months back when it was 1.42 (now 1.27) when DB spoke about it (thanks DB). But if there's a turn in the air might change back? Can't see it yet personally after the crap going on in this world.

Just a quick question. What's the difference between holding USD or IBTL. Both doing well, but any real difference?

Dollar rates. Or at least expected Dollar rates at the long end of the curve.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
37 minutes ago, harp said:

Just a quick question. What's the difference between holding USD or IBTL. Both doing well, but any real difference?

Effective interest rates. If it all goes tits up and they print like mad, then you'll also see a bump in bond prices.

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I am in the US right now and GBPUSD at 1.27 is "fucking awful" excuse my financial jargon. I just resisted having a beer at ten quid a pint albeit this is an expensive area. Petrol still half the UK price of course. 

What will this do to UK inflation if it keeps up I don't know. 

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41 minutes ago, harp said:

Good question! I changed a substantial GBP amount into USD a few months back when it was 1.42 (now 1.27) when DB spoke about it (thanks DB). But if there's a turn in the air might change back? Can't see it yet personally after the crap going on in this world.

Just a quick question. What's the difference between holding USD or IBTL. Both doing well, but any real difference?

You get interest on IBTL, its 20/30 yr treasury bonds yielding aroud 2% IIRC.  You are exposed to bond rates however as well as FX.

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5 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Being in the industry I’m a big fan of the challenger banks and what they are doing. I’ve been using Monzo and Starling as my main bank accounts the last year and recently opened an account with Glint. These are all real UK banks. 

Reason for mentioning - with Glint you can hold your money in gold as well as GBP and Euro and spend it direct from your MasterCard debit. 

Interesting stuff from the founder on market watch -

https://glintpay.com/presspost/people-decided-efficient-exchange-gold-ben-davies-speaks-marketwatch/?utm_campaign=Perspectives Q3-2018&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_D13PjusTjqtBAXZE-ZIy5hfu5wgGzXX4D27erexyTHs4h7mcOtg4CXFmO6BF3cMDSmaep-YEYiOxxYGu5V2bf9NAgeg&_hsmi=65117924&utm_content=65117924&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=2abf177c-e5d5-4365-91e8-4e79cff86945|ec83ae04-8cb6-4be6-859b-26fd11783930

Bollocks theyre a fraudsters paradise, See how you open an account at FIDOR. i do so hope these cunts are put out of business ASAP and that is being polite. (see one of my first posts on here and youll see why)

https://www.fidorbank.uk/personal-banking/smart-account

Too add Aldermores BTL lending is a disgrace, guaranteed to go bust when the property bubble burst.

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Dollar rates. Or at least expected Dollar rates at the long end of the curve.

Yes,the end that matters.The dollar is at my target now,just under actually (target 96.5 top) so i expect it to start to fall from here.Sterling is tricky.If i was outside sterling (i am for around 40%) id be considering bringing some back,and i probably will with some and pick up some more UK shares at these prices.I see a case for sterling at $1.10,but not in a straight line.At those prices though most of retail outside of the discounters will be in big trouble.

The Fed tightening and Trumps tariffs are crushing everyone with dollar leverage (unless you sell your product in dollars like gold miners).

UK needs rates up to keep sterling around $1.35.What i do know is the BOE wont want sterling at $1.27,that level starts to really hit the less well off even harder.

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sleepwello'nights
On ‎10‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 06:45, Hardhat said:

 

Some advice: withdraw funds from vanguard lifestategy and put it into bullion? Or into emerging markets? The lifestategy etf seems to be highly dependent on North America, and although it's performed amazingly so far this year I'm worried it's about to pop (at which point it will be time to re invest).

 

Are there other Vanguard funds you think are more resilient? I've got a small amount in a life strategy fund, its been the best performer in my selection of their funds this year.

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29 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Are there other Vanguard funds you think are more resilient? I've got a small amount in a life strategy fund, its been the best performer in my selection of their funds this year.

Same for me, it's been great this year, and historically it has also been good apart from 2016-17. However it is heavily exposed to North America which I feel may quickly become a risk, as many investors are anticipating a sharp reversal over the next year. From my own reading and research, it seems likely that we are looking at a correction to US stock prices sooner rather than later, although DYOR.

My main aim is to withdraw now when I'm up, so that I can buy back in if / when the market falls. I think after any turbulence it will be a good time to buy back in to lifestategy for the next ten years or so.

That said, I am also thinking about shifting some of my fund over to emerging markets. It's one of the riskiest funds Vanguard have, but I have personally been doing a lot of work in the Middle East and Asia over the last few years, and the company I work for has an expanding order book in these areas. Again, DYOR, but from what I have seen these markets are "emerging" very quickly, and it won't be long before we think of them as self sustaining. The demographics are in their favour with young, productive populations, and the smartest amongst them are working around 3x as hard as some of my UK guys for 1/3 of the money. A lot of big finance has recognised how productive these economies are becoming and how they may be a better long term bet than western economies at this point in time. The stock is fairly cheap and volatile now but I feel it will stabilise. Just anecdotal, but I feel over 10 years emerging markets will be a very good bet.

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On 07/08/2018 at 13:15, DurhamBorn said:

I make my own using this,had it years,

https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B002VA4CDI/ref=asc_df_B002VA4CDI54599765/?tag=googshopuk-21&creative=22146&creativeASIN=B002VA4CDI&linkCode=df0&hvadid=214458080830&hvpos=1o1&hvnetw=g&hvrand=15664628995403601871&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1006526&hvtargid=pla-421961243985

One of my great loves it Italian music and have quite a few Italian friends.They told me Italian mothers have one of these at home and its as close as you will get to a clay oven taste at home.It makes fabulous pizzas in about 4 minutes.I get the pizza flour from Sainsbury,make my own tomato topping with a mix of puree and passata and oregano.Toppings i use grated cheese or simply pick up all the reduced cheese in Tesco for 30p and freeze it,it goes crumbly when de-frosted but perfect for pizza.Toppings i pick up reduced salami,chicken etc and freeze in in one pizza size amounts.Roughly get a really lovely pizza for around 80p.If family are around il make up four bases and then simply get next one topped out as one is cooking.They are expensive at £100 (i paid £60 when i got mine),but they are fantastic, and its saved me multi times the price.

I ordered one of these it arrived yesterday.

So went to Morrisons, bought a 500g pack of 00 flour. 63p
Bought a tin of Pizza Express Passata tomato £1 added 1 clove of garlic and a few basil leaves.
Buffalo mozzarella  £1.20
Fresh basil 70p (cut up and sprinkle over the pizza)
1 tsp  salt + caster sugar.
I added 1.5 tsp of dry yeast, which if you cook in 1 hour is possibly too much, but for leaving overnight is very good.
375ml luke warm water
Add a drop of olive oil to dough mix to make it crispy.
Let the dough sit for an hour and these pizzas are 10 out of 10, theyll be as good as the best pizza you've ever eaten.

This morning i added a sprinkle of cheddar with the mozzarella and they were perfection.

DB i salute you.
 

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On 10/08/2018 at 19:04, Sideysid said:

I withdrew my pension to a cash fund back in January when I felt we were at the top in the Dow. DB did it exactly the same time with his dads pension (all discussed on HPC).

The stars are all aligned for another downturn sooner rather than later (I thought 2019 - but this may unravel far quicker than I anticipated).

Hey Sideysid, what kind of pension do you have to withdraw it to a cash fund ?  what even is a cash fund ha ! doh I have so much to get my head round !

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Hope you've all had a good weekend folks, I feel like I keep banging the same drum at the moment but what's happening in Turkey and it's contagion are well worth keeping an eye on this week. USDTRY has just hit 7.22 in Asian trading, well over the 7.1 level needed to cause a banking crisis. As mused previously, this strength in the dollar will cause much pain in other emerging markets, especially now. Going to be a mad Monday methinks.

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Noallegiance
5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Hope you've all had a good weekend folks, I feel like I keep banging the same drum at the moment but what's happening in Turkey and it's contagion are well worth keeping an eye on this week. USDTRY has just hit 7.22 in Asian trading, well over the 7.1 level needed to cause a banking crisis. As mused previously, this strength in the dollar will cause much pain in other emerging markets, especially now. Going to be a mad Monday methinks.

Why is 7.1 a magic number?

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14 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Hope you've all had a good weekend folks, I feel like I keep banging the same drum at the moment but what's happening in Turkey and it's contagion are well worth keeping an eye on this week. USDTRY has just hit 7.22 in Asian trading, well over the 7.1 level needed to cause a banking crisis. As mused previously, this strength in the dollar will cause much pain in other emerging markets, especially now. Going to be a mad Monday methinks.

Where do you see USDTRY @ 7.22 ?

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=TRY&view=12h

6.42

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42 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Why is 7.1 a magic number?

Its the point at which Turkish banks reserves become.... "depleted".

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Talking Monkey
3 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

I don't think it's accurate TBH.

Its defo at the 7.1 level spread better showing it at that, is this shtf time

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2 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Its defo at the 7.1 level spread better showing it at that, is this shtf time

The problem with borrowing in someone elses currency is you cant print your way out of trouble.  If things continue to go south numerous EU banks who lent to Turkey for a bit of extra risk are going to find they got more than they bargained for.

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17 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

I don't think it's accurate TBH.

Edit: looks like it was :) just opened FxPro and I'm seeing 7.10 bid / 7.15 ask...

The only people playing atm are the spread-betters.  Wait till the banks start.

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